Red America:How Bush will likely beat his 537-vote "landslide."(BIG SWEAT for Democrats)

NRO ^

[Happy2BMe]

November 13, 2003, 8:29 a.m.
Red America
How Bush will likely beat his 537-vote "landslide."

There's been a lot of talk about recent studies showing a decline in the percentage of American voters who identify themselves as Democrats.

Last summer, pollster Mark Penn found that just 32 percent of voters called themselves Democrats, which led Penn to conclude that, at least on the party-ID issue, "the Democratic party is currently in its weakest position since the dawn of the New Deal."

Now a new study by the Pew Research Center pegs the Democratic number at 31 percent, versus 30 percent who call themselves Republicans.

That's very bad news — if you're a Democrat — but what does it actually mean?

Just who are those voters who have switched party affiliation? And perhaps more important, where are they?

As it turns out, many are right where Democrats don't want them to be — in the swing states that could determine the winner of next year's presidential election.

In Minnesota, for example, Democrats used to enjoy a 31-26 advantage in party identification. Now, it's 31-28 in favor of Republicans. In 2000, Bush lost the state by about 58,000 votes out of 2.4 million cast.

Next time around, with more Republicans, he might do better.

In Michigan, Democrats used to enjoy a 33-26 advantage. Now it's 31-29 in favor of Republicans. In 2000, Bush lost the state by about 217,000 votes out of 4.2 million cast.

In Iowa, Democrats used to enjoy a 32-27 advantage. Now, it's 34-27 in favor of the Republicans. In 2000, Bush lost the state by about 4,000 votes out of 1.3 million cast.

In Wisconsin, Democrats used to enjoy a 33-29 advantage. Now, it's 30-29 in favor of the Republicans. In 2000, Bush lost by about 6,000 votes out of 2.6 million cast.

Those are the states that have turned over. In some other states that Bush lost narrowly, Democrats maintain their edge — just less so.

For example, in New Mexico, Democrats used to enjoy a 40-30 advantage. Now, it's 39-35. In 2000, Bush lost by just 366 votes.

And in the most important swing state of all in 2000, Florida, Democrats used to enjoy a 38-33 advantage. Now, it's 37-36 in favor of Republicans. That means Bush might be able to build on his 537-vote landslide.

"Republican gains have come across the board, both geographically and demographically," the Pew report says. "There have been increases in Republican party affiliation in nearly every major voting bloc, except among African-Americans."

And even though Democrats still have a tiny 31-30 advantage nationwide, that may be of little use next year.

"Because Republicans traditionally turn out to vote in higher numbers than do Democrats, the current division in party affiliation among the public could provide the GOP with a slight electoral advantage," the Pew report says.

Much of the discussion about the study has emphasized its conclusion that the United States remains deeply divided politically.

Some commentators have suggested that the study says the country is even more deadlocked than it was in 2000. "The red states get redder, [and] the blue states get bluer," wrote the Washington Post's E. J. Dionne.

Yet that doesn't seem to be the case. According to Pew, red states have indeed gotten redder, but blue states have gotten redder, too. Even the bluest of the blues, such as California, are a bit less so than a few years ago.

Why is it happening? Republican National Committee chief Ed Gillespie has an obvious partisan stake in the situation but nevertheless offered a cogent analysis in a recent memo to party leaders.

"As the Democrat party gets smaller, it becomes more liberal, elitist, and angry," Gillespie wrote, "and as it becomes more liberal, elitist, and angry, it gets smaller."

Ask Democrats and they'll tell you the Pew numbers don't reveal much about anything. The Democrats point out, reasonably, that party affiliation will not matter if more and more people decide not to vote for Bush.

"The number we'll be watching is the number of people who vote for or against President Bush," said Democratic National Committee spokesman Tony Welch.

Welch pointed to a recent Marist College poll that found that 44 percent of those surveyed said they definitely plan to vote against Bush next year, while 38 percent said they definitely plan to vote for him.

"Unless you're a bean counter worried about registration, this is what matters," says Welch.

Well, yes. But the Marist poll also found Bush beating any Democrat matched against him.

And the trends in party affiliation in the swing states that went to Gore in 2000 suggest that it's going to be harder for a Democrat to win those states in 2004.

Count all those beans together and they could mean big trouble for the next Democratic nominee.

— Byron York is also a columnist for The Hill, where this first appeared.

[David1]

Shouldn't it be the Republicans who are blue and the Democrats who are the reds? Red fits nicely with the Democrats.

[Alamo-Girl]

Bump!

[flamefront]

And in Colorado Rove/Bush are holding back funds for Tancredo while reportedly working at the same time to find a replacement for him. Amnesty for illegals and its likenesses are not far behind. How will that suit you?

This is shameful for Bush to even consider himself a friend of conservatives with this stand the illegal alien issue.

What got Swarzeneggar elected? Think about the bill to allow drivers licenses for illegals signed in by Davis.

All is not well.

[lasereye]

Welch pointed to a recent Marist College poll that found that 44 percent of those surveyed said they definitely plan to vote against Bush next year, while 38 percent said they definitely plan to vote for him.

Well, yes. But the Marist poll also found Bush beating any Democrat matched against him.

Considering most voters have still not heard of most of the Dem candidates, I don't see any significance to Bush winning head to head matchups. Challengers poll better against the incumbent as they become more known. Bush I was still ahead of Clinton in the spring of 92. That all changed after the Dem convention.

[ExSoldier]

Bush won Gore's home state of Tennessee. That kind of thing hasn't happened since the 1800's. Had Gore even won there, he'd be the President today. Those good folks in Tennessee voted their guns and their freedom...first.

[headsonpikes]

...most unique idea in all the long history of man's relation to man.

BUMP!

[kallisti]

but rats are more likely to vote multiple times.

[BamaAndy]

Thanks for the encouraging post. The numbers are going in the right direction--for the life of me I will never understand how many Americans identify with these democrats--are we that dumb as a society?

[Southack]

"Today's pubbies are returning to the blue blood roots of the rockfeller gop."

Presidency of George W. Bush --the first 36 months

 

Banned Partial Birth Abortion

Killed the Kyoto Global Warming Treaty.

Killed U.S. involvement in the International Criminal Court.

Killed the U.S. - CCCP ABM Treaty that was preventing the U.S. from deploying our ABM defenses.

Reversed Clinton's move to strike Reagan's anti-abortion Mexico Policy.

Killed Clinton's CO2 rules that were choking off all of the electricity surplus to California.

Killed Clinton's "ergonomic" rules that OSHA was about to implement; rules that would have shut down every home business in America.

Passed 2 tax cuts----1 of which was the largest Dollar value tax cut in history

Pushed through TWO raises for our military.

Increased Defense Dept funding which had deteriorated during the previous 8 years

Signed TWO bills into law that arm our pilots with handguns in the cockpit

Currently pushing for full immunity from lawsuits for our national gun manufacturers.

Ordered Attorney-General Ashcroft to formally notify the Supreme Court that the OFFICIAL U.S. government position on the 2nd Amendment is that it supports INDIVIDUAL rights to own firearms, NOT a leftist-imagined *collective* right.
Told the United Nations we weren't interested in their plans for gun control.

Successfully executed 2 wars: Afghanistan and Iraq. 50 million people who had lived under tyrannical regimes now live in freedom.

Changed the tone in the White House, restoring HONOR and DIGNITY to the Presidency

Reorganized bureaucracy...after 9/11, condensed 20+ overlapping agencies and their intelligence sectors into one agency: the Department of Homeland Security.

Initiated discussion on Social security and individual investment accounts.

Improving govt. efficiency with .8 million jobs put up for bid...weakening unions and cutting undeserved pay raises. Wants merit based promotions/raises only.

Executed a WAR ON TERROR by getting world-wide cooperation to track funds/terrorists (has cut off much of the terrorist's funding and captured or killed many key leaders of the al Qaeda network)

Stopped foreign aid that would be used to fund abortions.

Supported and upheld the ban on abortions at military hospitals

Signed E.O. reversing Clinton policy of not requiring parental consent under the Medical Privacy Act


Orchestrated Republican control of the White House, the House AND the Senate.

Killed the liberal ABA's role in vetting federal judges for Congress.

GWB signed an executive order enforcing the Supreme Court's Beck decision (re: union dues being used for political campaigns against individual's wishes)

Brought back our EP-3 intel plane and crew from China without any bribes or bloodshed

Started withdrawing our troops from Bosnia and has announced withdrawal of our troops from Germany and the Korean DMZ.

Signed the LARGEST nuclear arms reduction in world history with Russia

Initiated comprehensive review of our military, which was completed just prior to 9/11/01, accurately reported that ASYMMETRICAL WARFARE was critical.

Has CONSTRUCTION in process on the first ten ABM silos in Alaska, so that America will have a defense against North Korean nukes

Turning around an inherited economy in recession.

Passed tough new laws to hold corporate criminals to account as a result of corporate scandals.

Reduced taxes on dividends and capital gains

In process of eliminating IRS marriage penalty.

Increased small business incentives to expand and to hire new people

Signed into law the No Child Left Behind legislation delivering the most dramatic education reforms in a generation (challenging the soft bigotry of low expectations)

Reorganized the INS in an attempt to safeguard the borders and ports of America and to eliminate bureaucratic redundancies and lack of accountability.

Signed trade promotion authority

Committed US funds to purchase medicine for millions of men and women and children now suffering with AIDS in Africa

Urging Medicare Reform

Urging federal liability reform to eliminate frivolous lawsuits

Supports class action reform bill which limits lawyer fees so that more settlement money goes to victims

Submitted comprehensive energy plan--awaits Congressional action (works to develop cleaner technology, produce more natural gas here at home, make America less dependent on foreign sources of energy, improve national grid, etc.)

Endorses and promotes The Responsibility Era ("In a compassionate society, people respect one another and take responsibility for the decisions they make in life. My hope is to change the culture from one that has said, if it feels good, do it; if you've got a problem, blame somebody else -- to one in which every single American understands that he or she are responsible for the decisions that you make; you're responsible for loving your children with all your heart and all your soul; you're responsible for being involved with the quality of the education of your children; you're responsible for making sure the community in which you live is safe; you're responsible for loving your neighbor, just like you would like to be loved yourself. " -----this quote was too good to leave out)

Started the USA Freedom Corps

Pushing for privatization of Medicare and CHOICES based on current Federal Employee Health benefits program.

Initiated review of all federal agencies with a goal to eliminate federal jobs (completed September 2003) in an effort to reduce the size of federal gov while increasing private sector jobs.

Part of coalition (Russia, Israel, Palestine, USA) for Israeli/Palestinian "Roadmap to Peace"

Challenged the United Nations to live up to their responsibilities and not become The League of Nations ( in other words, completely irrelevant)

Nominated strong, conservative judges to the judiciary.

Changed parts of the Forestry Management Act to allow necessary clean-up of the national forests in order to reduce fire danger.

As part of the national forests clean-up, the President restricted judicial challenges (based on the Endangered Species Act and other challenges) and removed the need for an EIS (Environmental Impact Statement) before removing fuels/logging to reduce fire danger.

Significantly eased field-testing controls of genetically engineered crops.

[marktuoni]

Hey, what are you democrats reaping?

Looks like the crop of save your pervert president's a$$ that y'all sowed a few years back is finally ready!!!

[MeekOneGOP]

I'm not that well informed in the Illegal Immigrants issue.

Still, I think the 'RATS are going to take it in the shorts November 2004. Just imho ...

And I can't wait to see it happen ...

Go, Bush ! Go GOP !!

Click here or on the pic for the full article

Pelosi Wants Citizenship for Illegal Aliens

[MeekOneGOP]

Exposed: Pelosi's Socialist Ties

Pelosi leader of 'Progressive Caucus'

From those links, these excerpts ...

"DSA/USA, the 'Democratic Socialists of America' are the U.S. arm of the Socialist International. They share the symbol of the fist holding the rose, and they share the tasks to be accomplished — in our case, an altogether different America ...

"Some time ago — the date is missing from the descriptions — 58 members of the U.S. House of Representatives formed a subdivision of the Democratic Socialists of America and called it the Progressive Caucus. Their statement of purpose, as well as their membership list, formed an integral part of the dsausa Web site (www.dsausa.org ). The membership list appeared on the screen with the continuous background of the fist holding the rose, should anyone have missed the connection with the Socialist International."

Progressive Caucus

[Happy2BMe]

As I said, we will not likely see a match for Ronald Reagan in our liftime.

Here's a one-liner for ya:

President Ronald Reagan --

Brought down the military might of the Soviet Union and in so doing prevented World War III and the nuclear annihilation of three-fourths of the population of the world (all while fighting off the communist attacks of a Democrat majority congress, senate, and communist-controlled American media.)

I'm not taking anything from Dubya, but Reagan's shadow will outlast the memory of George Bush by 100 years.

[Happy2BMe]

Thanks for that list!

Do you have a (single) source reference for all that?

[Happy2BMe]

". . for the life of me I will never understand how many Americans identify with these democrats--are we that dumb as a society?"

When was the last time you stepped foot in New York City, Miami, or Los Angeles?

[AmishDude]

Here are the close races: (Less than 5% difference between Bush and Gore. WV does not fall into that category.)

State	Bush Share	Gore Share	Margin
Florida	48.85%	48.84%	0.01%
New Mexico	47.85%	47.91%	0.06%
Wisconsin	47.61%	47.83%	0.22%
Iowa	48.22%	48.54%	0.32%
Oregon	46.52%	46.96%	0.44%
New Hampshire	48.07%	46.80%	1.27%
Minnesota	45.50%	47.90%	2.40%
Missouri	50.42%	47.08%	3.34%
Ohio	49.97%	46.46%	3.51%
Nevada	49.52%	45.98%	3.54%
Tennessee	51.15%	47.28%	3.87%
Pennsylvania	46.43%	50.60%	4.17%

Here is my point. Of the five states where the Bush and Gore share of the vote was less than 1%, Gore won 4 of them and three of them (WI, NM and FL) were determined late. Gore won two of those and fought to the end for the third. My Source, BTW

[TNMountainMan]

"Those good folks in Tennessee voted their guns and their freedom...first."


Thank you, Thank you

[xzins]

This is the year 2000 electoral map. It would be interesting to see where Pres. Bush stands in the states that he did win last time. Obviously, if he wins those same states again, he will win the election again.

[qam1]

I've wondered recently why the republicans are red and the democrats are blue. ( as seen in election results ) It seems that the republicans were always blue on the maps. Have I not been paying attention or are they switched now and then? I always thought that when I saw a democrat win a state and it turned red that it was appropiate, commie red.

The incumbent party was always blue and the challenger red, Though with all the attention to the Blue States/Red States thingy it now might stay as Repub=Red, Rat=Blue.

[mo]

This election will be tough. Lots of overseas money will flow in against Bush-in retribution for having shown up the Europeans and the UN for what they are. The rest of the worlds' elite are threatened by a powerful and independent US-in some respects their own postions are not all that different from the Arabian aristocrats. When all is said and done Bush will need to define this election as us-Americans and our interests and who will support Americans and who will not.