The Wilder Effect - Why Bobby Jindal lost in Louisiana, despite being ahead in the polls.

Weekly Standard ^ | 11/17/03 | FredBarnes

[Tumbleweed_Connection]

BOBBY JINDAL'S DEFEAT in the Louisiana governor's race Saturday is a bigger loss for Republicans than just an office they've held for eight years. For now, it denies the party an impressive new national figure, a 32-year-old Indian-American who's destined to be a political star sometime--but not yet.

Why did Jindal lose after leading his Democratic opponent, Kathleen Blanco, in statewide polls in the weeks before the election? In a word, race. What occurred was the "Wilder effect," named after the black Virginia governor elected in 1989. Wilder, a Democrat, polled well, then won narrowly. Many white voters, it turned out, said they intended to vote for a black candidate when they really didn't. Questioned by pollsters, they were leery of being seen as racially prejudiced.

Jindal's advisers worried that he might lose the "Bubba vote," rural whites unwilling to vote for a black candidate or even a dark-skinned Indian-American. The Jindal camp's fears were realized. A Republican normally needs two-thirds of the white vote to win in Louisiana to compensate for losing nearly all of the black vote. But Jindal got only 60 percent of whites, according to an analysis by GCR & Associates Inc., a political consulting firm. Its findings were reported in the New Orleans Times-Picayune.

Had Jindal fared better among blacks, he might have won despite losing white votes. But he got only 9 percent of blacks, this after mounting a highly-publicized effort to attract black voters. Jindal was endorsed by several black political organizations, a former associate of Rev. Martin Luther King Jr., and New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin, who is black. Nonetheless, he did only slightly better among blacks than Republicans normally do.

Jindal, whose parents moved to Baton Rouge from India shortly before he was born, won 70 percent of the white vote in the New Orleans area. But outside that urban hub in the more rural and poorer parts of the state, only 48 percent of whites voted for Jindal, according to the GCR analysis.

Blanco's victory was hailed by Democrats, and for good reason. It broke the Republican winning streak in governor's contests this year. (One of those new Republican governors, Arnold Schwarzenegger, is being sworn in today in California.) Republicans also won in Kentucky and Mississippi, seats that had also been held by Democrats. In Louisiana, Republican Gov. Mike Forster is stepping down after two terms. His successor, Blanco, is a conservative Democrat opposed to abortion and tax increases and closer philosophically to Democratic Sen. Zell Miller of Georgia than to most national Democrats.

Jindal, a Brown University graduate and Rhodes Scholar with a dazzling résumé, ran a positive campaign, calling himself a "problem solver." When Blanco ran a TV commercial attacking his tenure as head of Louisiana's hospitals, he didn't respond directly to the charges, though he criticized her for going negative. Some Republican strategists thought his campaign was simply too nice for the rough and tumble of Louisiana politics, especially when he left serious charges unrefuted.

Had he won, Jindal would surely have emerged as a national spokesman for the Republican party. For one thing, he is a policy wonk who talks knowledgeably about health care, Medicare reform, and education. For another, he would add to the ethnic diversity of Republican leaders. But his time has not yet come.

[newgeezer]

"Boy, da way Glenn Miller played..."

This is why the rumored Condolezza Rice VP candidacy would be a net loss, especially in the Old South (nevermind the fact that she's also a woman).

[Huck]

I certainly wouldn't want Condi a step away from the Presidency.

[CatoRenasci]

I certainly wouldn't want Condi a step away from the Presidency.

Why not?

[dg62]

I live in La. and have voted Republican all my life (since 1980) but this was the first election in which I did not vote. Neither Blanco nor Jindal interested me enough. Jindal had too much the resume of a born overachieving politico (like Clinton). Blanco is a bureaucrat too but she seems to be scandal-free (a huge plus) and they were both pretty conservative when you boiled it all down so I did'nt care which of them were elected as I don't think either of them would have hurt our state.

[Huck]

Because I wouldn't want her as President. She isn't even close to being presidential material.

[Coop]

Not much of an excuse not to vote. But of course that's your prerogative.

[warchild9]

Your reasons for not voting are the same we used when we sat out the last election, but with an opposite twist. Erskine Bowles was a Clinton lapdog (enough said), and Liddy Dole was a System Republican who we figured would turn her back on us in a second (which she did). We figured we'd lose either way (which we have).
Unless Hillary enters the next race, we're sitting out the next one, too. W has been a disaster for North Carolina (except in the minds of bots), and any Democrat will only continue the same policies, just faster and harder (the latest expansion of Medicaire, which WE are going to have to pay for, comes immediately to mind).

And for the record, the Mrs. and I supported Alan Keyes.

[tiamat]

If you don't vote, you lose your "b*tching rights" .

Go ahead. Don't vote. Just don't whine to me if you hate how things turn out.

Besides, even if you can't find someone to vote FOR, there is ALWAYS someone you can vote AGAINST!

Tia

[GraniteStateConservative]

The sooner he moves to a state willing to elect him, the better for the country. After Blanco for 8 years, LA will elect Mitch Landrieu for 8 years. The state will continue to be a Democrat-conrolled trash pile like Arkansas-- and I'm an Arkansan.

[GraniteStateConservative]

I think Jindal knew he couldn't get those xenophobic and racist voters who fear a golden boy candidate so much smarter than they are. So, he tried to pick up minority voters to compensate.

[newgeezer]

I certainly wouldn't want Condi a step away from the Presidency.

Same here. Unfortunately, some racists (some of them race baiters) automatically assume or hope it's due to her race.

[Callahan]

Give me a break. Conservatives are constantly being tarred as "morons" by the lib media. We finally get a true blue conservative who is unassailably brilliant. He's poised to be a national star and a symbol of our color-blind philosophy--and you can't be bothered to cast a vote for him versus a dopey, medi-scaring, machine Democrat. Does he look to much like one a them 7-11 ownin' Hindoos? Now that really is stupid. Reminds me of blacks who think that getting good grades is "acting white." Being smart doesn't automatically make you a Clintoon.

[dg62]

I was'nt b!tching. I just responded about why I felt apathetic about this election. I have always voted since I was 18, so you can bet my apathy was significant enough to give my choice much thought. The older I get, the more I know what I am looking for in a candidate. I did'nt see that choice in this election.

[dg62]

The outgoing La. Gov. Foster is a Republican. He has been a big let down to many people. The state is probably slightly to somewhat worse off than it was 8 years ago when he took office (not that it's all his fault). I have voted many times for Republicans just because they were Republican only to be let down.

[tiamat]

I didn't say you were b*tching.

I said people who do not vote give up their right to complain later.

FReegards,

Tia

[Kuksool]

Might as well rename the Bayou state, Landrieuana.

[Ann Archy]

I, too, was a Keyes supporter. I have decided he does NOT have the temperment to be a Congressman let alone a President....and I agree with abot 99% of what he says. He is ALWAYS angry and a very hot temper that i USED to see as passion. He should be a Deacon.

[dg62]

Nothing wrong with being smart, or a rising star. I just don't like the that combination in a politician, especially a young one.

The great thing about your peers running in elections is that you can judge them on your experience with your own peers. I never did like the politico type...the kind that runs for everything, lives and breathes civic activity but has never had a real job(non political), does'nt have a real life, you know the type. Jindal fits that category to the tee. In my experience with this type, it's all hype to promote the political career, not the job to be done.