Iranian Alert -- December 18, 2003 -- IRAN LIVE THREAD

The US media almost entirely ignores news regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran. As Tony Snow of the Fox News Network has put it, “this is probably the most under-reported news story of the year.” But most American’s are unaware that the Islamic Republic of Iran is NOT supported by the masses of Iranians today. Modern Iranians are among the most pro-American in the Middle East.

There is a popular revolt against the Iranian regime brewing in Iran today. Starting June 10th of this year, Iranians have begun taking to the streets to express their desire for a regime change. Most want to replace the regime with a secular democracy. Many even want the US to over throw their government.

The regime is working hard to keep the news about the protest movement in Iran from being reported. Unfortunately, the regime has successfully prohibited western news reporters from covering the demonstrations. The voices of discontent within Iran are sometime murdered, more often imprisoned. Still the people continue to take to the streets to demonstrate against the regime.

In support of this revolt, Iranians in America have been broadcasting news stories by satellite into Iran. This 21st century news link has greatly encouraged these protests. The regime has been attempting to jam the signals, and locate the satellite dishes. Still the people violate the law and listen to these broadcasts. Iranians also use the Internet and the regime attempts to block their access to news against the regime. In spite of this, many Iranians inside of Iran read these posts daily to keep informed of the events in their own country.

This daily thread contains nearly all of the English news reports on Iran. It is thorough. If you follow this thread you will witness, I believe, the transformation of a nation. This daily thread provides a central place where those interested in the events in Iran can find the best news and commentary. The news stories and commentary will from time to time include material from the regime itself. But if you read the post you will discover for yourself, the real story of what is occurring in Iran and its effects on the war on terror.

I am not of Iranian heritage. I am an American committed to supporting the efforts of those in Iran seeking to replace their government with a secular democracy. I am in contact with leaders of the Iranian community here in the United States and in Iran itself.

If you read the daily posts you will gain a better understanding of the US war on terrorism, the Middle East and why we need to support a change of regime in Iran. Feel free to ask your questions and post news stories you discover in the weeks to come.

If all goes well Iran will be free soon and I am convinced become a major ally in the war on terrorism. The regime will fall. Iran will be free. It is just a matter of time.

In Iran, hopes for democracy dwindle

Reformers dispirited as candidates registered for parliamentary vote.

By Scott Peterson
Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
12.18.2003

TEHRAN AND QOM, IRAN – Once seen as the most vigorous democratic impulse in the Islamic world, Iran's reform movement is battling for political survival.
This week, candidates are registering for Iran's February parliamentary elections. But this first step in the process - conducted with perfect civility - belies a tumultuous political scene for reformists - including attacks on them by vigilantes - plus a growing apathy among voters.

The collapsing popularity of President Mohamad Khatami, and the stymied reform movement that he symbolizes, may result in the handover of Iran's parliament to conservatives - the same entrenched faction that has successfully blocked Mr. Khatami's efforts, say analysts here.

"Reform is dead, and its leaders are not going to be [in the new parliament]," says Shirzad Bozorgmehr, deputy editor of the English-language Iran News. "That's going to anger a lot of people, because the conservatives will be stronger. but it's going to be a fact of life."

One possible silver lining, some analysts say, is that a modest conservative victory might yield a less combative political atmosphere, and a parliament, or majlis, that can get something done. Hard-liners in both camps declare they can't work together. But the lessons of the reform experience - the clear desire for change that prompted three landslide elections victories for reformers since 1997, and the bursting bubble of their high expectations - is shaping moderates on both sides, and could lead to an alliance in parliament.

"The idea of reform has taken root, even though it has been diverted from its original path," says Bozorgmehr. "If the rightists don't fear anyone, and feel no threat from reformers, then they can afford to be magnanimous."

Frustration runs deep, however. The main reformist party, the Islamic Iran Participation Front (IIPF), has warned that it may call a boycott if its candidates are rejected in large numbers by the Guardian Council, an unelected conservative body that has heavily vetted candidates in the past. It is one lever of power in Iran, along with the judiciary and security forces, that remains in the hands of hard-liners. Targeted by such unelected bodies, some 100 reform newspapers have been shut down since 2000, and several key reform leaders are behind bars.

Last week in Geneva, Khatami said that democracy is the "only alternative." But the depth of conservative suspicion was clear in the response to those words by Ayatollah Ahmed Jannati, the hard-line Friday prayer leader, who told Iranians: "They are lying. Do not be fooled by them. Leave democracy alone."

Overshadowing the process are the demands of the Iran's youthful population, two-thirds of them under 30 years old, who have little recollection of the 1979 Islamic revolution - and sometimes want to challenge ruling clerics head-on.

A recent poll by the Tehran Medical University is reported to have found that 72 percent of respondents thought the reform process was over; 38 percent wanted Mr. Khatami to quit, and nearly a third wanted majlis deputies to resign.

"Khatami is forgotten - he's not an issue anymore," says a Western diplomat. "But the Khatami era made the reality of social change more open. There is an increasing gap between society and politics."

Reversing the subsequent apathy is proving difficult for both camps, though conventional wisdom is that less voters means more chances for conservatives. City council elections last February yielded just 12 percent turnout in Tehran (and more than 50 percent nationwide) - and a conservative victory.

That result "is an example people are very happy about these days," suggests Hussein Shariatmadari, a representative of Iran's supreme spiritual leader, and editor of the conservative Kayhan newspaper.

"[Council members] live simply, are highly educated, have low salaries and work 16 to 17 hours a day," he says. "In a word, they are only working for God's satisfaction. The people are looking for these kinds of people, and we hope they find what they want."

But the Tehran council result is taken as a dangerous example by reformists, who decry the council efforts to turn some cultural centers into mosques.

"People must realize what will happen if they don't go to the ballot box, and what they will lose, even if they have been critical of reforms," says Morad Veisi, chief editor of Yas-e-No, the main newspaper of the IIPF, which has been operating for nine months, and regularly publishes details of prison conditions of its activists.

A coalition between moderates in the new majlis is "not possible, because we have fundamental differences," says Mr. Veisi. "Where in that concept is the people's vote? The conservatives don't care if people come to vote or not, and that is dangerous."

Indeed, some say Iran's current political dynamic is far from the ideals of justice and democracy that were to have been restored in Iran by the 1979 revolution.

"[Current leaders] are not fulfilling the promises of the first days of the revolution," says Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, once the chosen successor of the leader of the revolution, Imam Khomeini, who was released from house arrest in January, after five years, for questioning the divine right to rule.

"The Guardian Council is also radical, and following factionalism," says Mr. Montazeri, in an interview in Iran's religious center of Qom. The council was designed to ensure that laws are "not against Islam," but "now it manages the candidates, and is doing the opposite of what it was supposed to do."

While candidates are due to be vetted in coming weeks, several reform deputies have already been attacked by vigilantes. In one case this month, some 15 thugs in the central city of Yazd beat and kicked close presidential aide Mohsen Mirdamadi, the head of parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee.

Voices from across Iran's political spectrum condemned the attack.

Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi told the Associated Press that it was a "new strategy on the part of hard-liners to intimidate reformers...ahead of elections. They have taken up arms now." He later said the perpetrators were "part of the system."

"They are criminals...and wild wolves," says Grand Ayatollah Saanei, a ranking reformist cleric, and former head of the judiciary under Khomeini, during an interview in Qom. Mr. Saanei says Islam and democracy are an "exact" fit, though "it needs a lot of time, because all those people in theological schools do not think the same way."

Mr. Shariatmadari, the conservative editor, says he is in no doubt that the reform camp itself engineered the vigilante attack on Mr. Mirdamadi - not the shadowy hardline pressure groups usually blamed for disrupting reform gatherings.

"It is clear: the result is the result that [reformists] badly needed," Shariatmadari says.

"Instead of giving an explanation of their performance, and why they have produced nothing, [for them] it is better to talk about this incident."

Even if reformers fade at the polls, Ayatollah Moussavi Tabrizi, a reformist cleric in Qom, says their influence is still palpable. The most hard-line institutions, such as the judiciary, have been forced by the wave of reformist popularity to improve, he says.

"Of course, we have a long way to go to fulfill these ideals," the ayatollah adds. "We must do something so that people don't tire of politics - they need to be on the scene."

http://www.csmonitor.com/2003/1218/p01s04-wome.html

Iran kidnapped Westerners 'okay'

12.18.2003
BBCi

The government in Iran has said three Western tourists - one Irishman and two Germans - are "physically okay" 10 days after they were kidnapped.

A government spokesman said he expected the tourists, thought to be cyclists, to be released soon.

The three were kidnapped on 8 December in south-eastern Iran, close to the Pakistani border.

Their captors - thought to be drugs traffickers - have demanded five million euros for their release.

Iran has said it will not pay any ransom and has urged Irish and German authorities to do the same.

The Irish Red Cross has named the Irishman as Aidan James Leahy.

The organisation's chairman, David Andrews, has met the Iranian ambassador in Ireland to attempt to secure the man's release.

Negotiations

Iran's Interior Minister Abdolvahed Mussavi-Lari said the intelligence ministry and the police were both working on securing the tourists' release.

"Based on the information [our departments] have given us, they are physically okay," he said.

He added that officials working for the release of the three were confident they could "resolve the issue soon".

The three tourists were cycling near Nosrat Abad, on the road between the ancient city of Bam and Zahedan in the south-eastern province of Sistan-Baluchistan, when they were kidnapped.

The government says their captors are drug smugglers who are unhappy at a police seizure of their consignment.

Ten Europeans were kidnapped in three separate incidents in the Islamic Republic in 1999.

The hostages were freed unharmed and three of the kidnappers were publicly hanged in 2001.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3328563.stm

Iran 'owed billions for Saddam war'

12.18.2003
BBCi

The head of Iraq's Interim Governing Council says Iran should be paid reparations for the war that Saddam Hussein waged against it in the 1980s.

Abdul Aziz al-Hakim said further discussion was needed to decide what if anything Iraq would pay itself.

Iran claims $100bn in reparations for the brutal eight-year war that claimed about one million lives.

Mr Hakim's remarks may augur improving Iran-Iraq relations now Saddam Hussein is in custody.

The prominent Iraqi is also the head of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (Sciri) the most important Shia Muslim party represented on the governing council.

Sciri has close ties with Tehran, where the party was based during Saddam Hussein's years in power.

Analysts say that with Iraq's Shia majority likely to dominate in any future democratic government, it is logical that Baghdad should now develop warmer relations with its Shia neighbours in Iran.

Mustard gas

In 1980, after a series of border skirmishes following Iran's Islamic revolution, Iraq invaded Iran.

The ensuing war claimed the lives of at least one million people and during the conflict, Iraq used nerve gas against the Iranians.

The Iranian Government is preparing a comprehensive complaint against Saddam Hussein for "crimes" against the Islamic republic, calling for the captured former Iraqi leader to be tried before an international court.

Some Iranian observers say the US should also be in the dock with Saddam Hussein, as Washington supported him at the time of the war.

An estimated 20,000 Iranians were killed by Iraqi mustard gas or by nerve agents during the conflict.

Death penalty

Iran points out that Kuwait has already received billions of dollars through the UN's Iraqi oil-for-food programme in compensation for the invasion of that country.

Mr Hakim said Saddam Hussein would be tried in Iraq

Mr Hakim said: "According to the UN, Iran deserves reparations. She must be satisfied. Whether we will pay or not is something which we need to discuss further."

The council leader was speaking after talks with UK Foreign Secretary Jack Straw in London.

Mr Hakim also told a news conference that Saddam Hussein would be tried in a special Iraqi court.

International monitors could observe the trial, which would take global legal standards into account, Mr Hakim added.

He did not say whether the former Iraqi president, captured at the weekend, would face the death penalty.

"[Saddam Hussein] will be tried and after that we will do what the judge and the court will decide", Mr Hakim told reporters.

Just days before Saddam Hussein's capture, the Iraqi council announced that a tribunal would be set up to try members of the former regime.

Saddam 'still in Iraq'

Speculation over the ousted leader's whereabouts has been intense since his capture on Saturday near his home town of Tikrit. The US military has only said that Saddam Hussein is being held at "an undisclosed location" in Iraq.

Council member Mowaffaq al-Rubaie told reporters: "Saddam Hussein is present in an area of greater Baghdad... God willing... he will be tried in Iraq in public by an Iraqi court."

He was responding to media reports that had suggested that Saddam Hussein had been flown to the Gulf state of Qatar.

On Wednesday Arab League officials said a fact-finding delegation, headed by Assistant Secretary General Ahmad Bin Heley, would leave for Iraq on Thursday.

The team will meet Council members, visit mass graves and discuss human rights violations by the former regime.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3329671.stm

Iran raps foreign embassies over 'depravation'

IranMania News
December 17, 2003

TEHRAN, Dec 17 (AFP) - Tehran's hardline public prosecution office denounced Wednesday what it said was "depravation" in foreign embassies, revealing that it had infiltrated the residence of the Ivory Coast ambassador in an operation that led to the arrest of several young local women.

The allegations were contained in a report cataloguing six months of work by the office, which is headed by hardliner Saeed Mortazavi, best known for his closure of reformist newspapers when he was in his previous job of head of Tehran's press court.

The report stated that during the period, "tens of depraved places and mixed-sex parties were discovered and the accused, especially the elements behind running these places, were identified and arrested and were handed over to the courts."

"One of these places where depravation was discovered was in the embassy of the Ivory Coast," said the report, carried by Iranian media and whose contents were confirmed to AFP by a judicial spokesman.

Iran's judiciary usually uses "depravation" as a euphemism for mixed-sex parties were alcohol is consumed or, in some cases, prostitution.

"After we were informed that a noticeable number of young Iranian girls and women were present at the residence of the ambassador, planning and infiltration of the place by the police resulted in the identification and arrest of a noticeable number of delinquents," stated the report.

The prosecution office also boasted that after the operation against the embassy, after which it said 40 arrests were made, "we did not get any further reports of any such parties in any foreign embassies in Tehran, or at least we noted their numbers decreased substantially."

Diplomatic sources said the arrests were made following a party on August 7 marking Ivory Coast's national day, and outside the compound where the party was held.

The report complained that "unfortunately embassies and foreign missions tend to throw parties in the name of national days... and invite some deviant girls and therefore spread moral corruption."

"But after the above mentioned case, the embassies were almost clean and based on our latest information they have not invited these kind of people anymore."

Details of the "infiltration" of the Ivory Coast's ambassador's residence were not given, a sensitive issue given that embassies and ambassadorial residences are protected by strict diplomatic protocols.

http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?NewsCode=20725&NewsKind=Current%20Affairs

Khatami tells students Iran must remain religious state

17th Dec 2003
Manorama Online, Malaysia

Teheran: President Mohammad Khatami rejected secularization of Iran in remarks to students in Teheran.

''Our revolution and our history has a religious identity and our people want democracy on the basis of religion,'' Khatami said. ''Our geopolitical situation is different and therefore even universities should bear in mind that we cannot implement political tendencies from other countries and,'' the president said, referring to the growing secular trend in Iran among students.

Students - and some liberal circles - repeatedly have called for a referendum on amendment of the constitution in favour of democratically elected bodies, and against appointed bodies which are controlled by the conservative clergy.

The clergy establishment has labelled the calls an effort to undermine the Islamic system and replace it with a secular one.

Khatami warned Iranians against concluding that an Islamic system was not compatible to democracy. Khatami and the Iranian establishment are worried that turnout in February 20 parliamentary elections will be low, which would undermine government legitimacy. Last year, voters boycotted municipal elections.

Iranian students used the be the main force behind the president, however they have manifested frustration over the failure of Khatami's reform efforts. He has been asked to resign and warned of an election boycott.

Khatami has termed the February elections as the most important in the 25-year history of the Islamic Republic.

http://www.manoramaonline.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=manorama/MmArticle/CommonFullStory&c=MmArticle&cid=1071655257828&channel=News&p=1002194839100&count=7

Iran Fast Becoming One of Sweden's Largest Export Markets

December 18, 2003
AFP
channelnewsasia.com

STOCKHOLM -- Swedish companies, led by truckmaker Volvo, have nearly doubled their exports to Iran, which is fast moving up the list of the Scandinavian country's largest export markets, a report said.

Over the past nine months, Swedish sales to Iran have climbed by 88 percent, as exporters ignored United States embargo calls against Iran, which is on Washington's "axis of evil" list, the TT news agency reported.

Sweden's exports to the Islamic state were set to exceed five billion kronor (683 million dollars, 553 million euros) by the end of this year.

While the Islamic state still lags far behind Sweden's top export partners, like the US and Germany, which accounted for 70 billion and 62 billion kronor respectively in Swedish exports during the first nine months of 2003, it is rapidly moving up the list.

In the first nine months of 2003, Iran jumped from 39th place to 28th place on the list of the largest importers of Swedish goods.

"This is about traditional Swedish industry," Sven-Eric Soeder, state secretary of the Swedish Ministry of Industry, Employment and Communications, told TT.

"Volvo, Scania, Ericsson, Alfa Laval and similar heavy industries have seen a large increase. Volvo, for instance, is alone responsible for half of the increase through its truck exports," he added.

While many Western countries have abided by the US embargo on Iran, neutral Sweden has never prohibited companies from doing business with the country.

The US government prohibits most trade with Iran, except for food, medical products and carpets.

"We believe that contact is better than isolation," a Swedish government official, who asked not to be named, told AFP.

Up until the 1979 Iranian revolution, Sweden was, in value terms, the 15th largest exporter to Iran.

Exports to Iran dwindled subsequently, but have been going up again recently.

"Over the past two to three years, exports have increased very quickly," Claes Claeson, a spokesman for Volvo, told AFP.

"Much of what Iranians export has to go over the highway, and they need high-quality vehicles to transport it."

Volvo, which has done business in Iran since 1932, sold between 4,000 and 5,000 trucks to the country this year, and hopes that number will increase going forward, Claeson said.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/62513/1/.html

76% Of Americans Believe Iran Threatens World Peace, Poll Shows

December 18, 2003
The Day
Jonathan M. Katz

Jerusalem -- Some 43 percent of Americans believe Israel is a threat to world peace, according to a poll presented Wednesday by a Jewish group, but many more are concerned about North Korea, Iraq and Iran.

The Anti-Defamation League said its survey showed much less concern about Israel among Americans than a recent poll in Europe, where Israel was at the top of the list of countries perceived as threatening world peace.

The ADL poll showed that 43 percent of Americans believe Israel is a threat to world peace, placing it behind seven other countries. In last month's Eurobarometer poll, 59 percent of Europeans chose Israel, ranking it number one.

North Korea ranked first in the U.S. poll at 77 percent, with Iraq and Iran tied for second at 76 percent. About 37 percent said the United States itself was the greatest threat.

A Boston-based research firm interviewed 1,200 American adults by phone earlier this month for the ADL. The survey's margin of error was 4 percentage points. The poll was presented during a national security conference in Herzliya attended by Israeli leaders and world figures.

The poll showed about 40 percent of Americans sympathize primarily with Israel in the Mideast conflict, compared to just 15 percent that sympathize with Palestinians, numbers Foxman said have remained consistent since 1991.

About 73 percent said the United States was more likely to be attacked by terrorists because of its support for Israel, but 62 percent who gave that answer said the support should continue anyway.

http://www.theday.com/eng/web/newstand/re.aspx?reIDx=F1FDDBBF-5100-452E-9EF4-A48EE52F1FD7

Iran's Nuke is Highest Foreign Priority to Americans

December 18, 2003
Zogby International
Zogby Poll

Iran Nukes Should be America's Highest Foreign Priority, According to Nation's Likely Voters in Foreign Policy Association.

Americans view a potential nuclear crisis in Iran as the highest priority in foreign crises (64% rating as 4 or 5 on the scale). Fighting between Israel and the Palestinians rates a close second on the list of priorities (57%). Fewer than half of Americans assign a high priority to rebuilding Afghanistan (43%).

The Foreign Policy Association commissioned Zogby International to determine American opinion about US priorities. The poll of 1,000 likely voters was conducted September 5 - 9 from Zogby's Utica, NY Call Center, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.

Likely voters were asked to rate the priority of several situations around the world (some actual, some hypothetical) on a five-point scale, where one indicates lower priority and five indicates a higher level of priority.

Other world situations rank considerably lower as priorities. Less than one in five consider a financial collapse in Brazil (19%) or instability and war in Indonesia (18%) as high priority. Just one in ten (11%) view war in the Congo as high priority.

Those more likely to rate fighting between Israel and the Palestinians as high priority include Easterners (68%), Republicans (62%; compared to 52% among Democrats and 53% among Independents), older respondents (50-64: 60%), college graduates (63%), whites (59%, compared to 45% among African Americans), and Jews (82%).

Liberals (61%) and progressives (63%), as well as conservatives (59%) and those who say they are very conservative (62%), are fairly aligned in their views of assigning a high priority to the Israel-Palestinian conflict.

There are generally few significant demographic distinctions when assigning priority to rebuilding Afghanistan. Only among Hispanics (54%) and Jews (51%) do majorities assign high priority to rebuilding Afghanistan. Easterners (50%), college graduates (49%), and higher income earners (,000 and over: 49%) are also more likely to prioritize the rebuilding of Afghanistan.

There are relatively few significant demographic distinctions when considering a nuclear crisis in Iran, possible financial collapse in Brazil, instability and war in Indonesia, or war in the Congo.

The Foreign Policy Association (www.fpa.org) is a non-profit organization in New York City dedicated to inspiring the American public to learn more about the world.

"As Americans approach the first presidential election in decades in which foreign policy looms large, their appraisal of international developments has never counted for more," noted Noel V. Lateef, President of the Foreign Policy Association.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=772

Man could face death for car sticker

Reuters - World News
Dec 18, 2003

TEHRAN - An Iranian man faces a possible lengthy prison term or even the death penalty for attaching a sticker to the rear window of his car proclaiming "The era of arrogant rulers is over".

"My client faces jail for acting against national security just because of that sticker," attorney Mohammad Ali Dadkhah told Reuters on Thursday.

The charge of acting against national security normally carries a hefty prison sentence and in some cases has led to the death penalty being imposed.

Dadkhah said Ali Akbar Najafi, 27, an unlicensed taxi driver, was arrested in June in southern Tehran. He said his client had thought up the slogan himself, but that it was not specifically aimed at Iran's clerical establishment.

"After being kept blindfolded in solitary confinement for 53 days he now suffers psychological problems," said Dadkhah, who was asked by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi, to represent Najafi.

Najafi was released on bail of $25,000 (17,300 pounds) and ordered to appear before a branch of the Revolutionary Court on December 28.

His arrest in June coincided with a rash of pro-democracy protests during which around 4,000 people were arrested. The vast majority of them were released without charge.

When asked on Wednesday whether Saddam Hussein ought to receive the death penalty, Iran's President Mohammad Khatami said: "If anyone is to be executed, the most appropriate person would be Saddam. But it don't want any human being, even a criminal, to be killed if there is an alternative."

http://www.daneshjoo.org/generalnews/article/publish/article_4104.shtml

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