Iranian Alert -- January 5, 2004 -- IRAN LIVE THREAD --Americans for Regime Change in Iran

The US media almost entirely ignores news regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran. As Tony Snow of the Fox News Network has put it, “this is probably the most under-reported news story of the year.” But most American’s are unaware that the Islamic Republic of Iran is NOT supported by the masses of Iranians today. Modern Iranians are among the most pro-American in the Middle East.

There is a popular revolt against the Iranian regime brewing in Iran today. Starting June 10th of this year, Iranians have begun taking to the streets to express their desire for a regime change. Most want to replace the regime with a secular democracy. Many even want the US to over throw their government.

The regime is working hard to keep the news about the protest movement in Iran from being reported. Unfortunately, the regime has successfully prohibited western news reporters from covering the demonstrations. The voices of discontent within Iran are sometime murdered, more often imprisoned. Still the people continue to take to the streets to demonstrate against the regime.

In support of this revolt, Iranians in America have been broadcasting news stories by satellite into Iran. This 21st century news link has greatly encouraged these protests. The regime has been attempting to jam the signals, and locate the satellite dishes. Still the people violate the law and listen to these broadcasts. Iranians also use the Internet and the regime attempts to block their access to news against the regime. In spite of this, many Iranians inside of Iran read these posts daily to keep informed of the events in their own country.

This daily thread contains nearly all of the English news reports on Iran. It is thorough. If you follow this thread you will witness, I believe, the transformation of a nation. This daily thread provides a central place where those interested in the events in Iran can find the best news and commentary. The news stories and commentary will from time to time include material from the regime itself. But if you read the post you will discover for yourself, the real story of what is occurring in Iran and its effects on the war on terror.

I am not of Iranian heritage. I am an American committed to supporting the efforts of those in Iran seeking to replace their government with a secular democracy. I am in contact with leaders of the Iranian community here in the United States and in Iran itself.

If you read the daily posts you will gain a better understanding of the US war on terrorism, the Middle East and why we need to support a change of regime in Iran. Feel free to ask your questions and post news stories you discover in the weeks to come.

If all goes well Iran will be free soon and I am convinced become a major ally in the war on terrorism. The regime will fall. Iran will be free. It is just a matter of time.

Aftershocks

January 05, 2004
National Review Online
Michael Ledeen

The West must read the meter in Bam and Tehran.

The Bam earthquake showed the Western world at its best (rescuers, doctors, money, medicine, and food poured into Iran) and the mullahcracy at its worst (no national leader dared set foot in the disaster zone for four days, and then only when the army and assorted thugs could protect the mullahs against the rage of the locals). When some Americans prepared to leave, they were begged to remain. The Iranians feel safer with us than with their own tyrants.

Secretary of State Colin Powell, recovering from his recent cancer surgery, chose to issue yet another blandishment to the regime, expressing the hope that it might soon be possible to sit down and improve relations. To these words of good will, the so-called reformist president of the Islamic republic, Mohammed Khatami, responded with the back of his moderate hand. There would be no improvement until and unless the United States mended its evil ways, and first the Americans would have to "learn their lesson in Iraq."

For those willing to see what is before our noses, that was a fine description of Iranian intentions. They mean to drive us out of Iraq (and Afghanistan as well) by killing as many Americans (and Iraqis and Afghanis) as they can. Meanwhile, they are spreading their oppression to Iraq itself, and attempting to get their French friends back in business there. In Khadamiyah, for example, Shiites are imposing sharia on the local schools, rounding up tardy students, and forcing the girls to cover their heads. Locals have informed American forces that they believe the Iranians are organizing these gangs. And back in Baghdad, the SCIRI (Iranian-supported Shiite organization) representative on the Iraqi Governing Council has assured the French and the Russians that they will be able to participate in Iraqi reconstruction projects. I have yet to hear Jerry Bremer, who is so quick to jump on any questionable statement from the Iraqi National Council, condemn this shocking embrace of the opponents of the liberation of the country.

Meanwhile, evidence mounts on the true character of the terror network. The Los Angeles Times has detailed the close cooperation between Saddam and his Baathist buddies in Syria, to the consternation of many of our professional diplomats, who have long argued that Syria was our secret ally in the war against terrorism. And we are learning more and more about the covert assistance provided to the mullahs' atomic program by the government of Pakistan. In time, we will be able to document the ways in which Pakistani leaders were paid off by the Iranians and the Saudis in order to give Tehran the ability to nuke Israel.

All of this makes it more perplexing than ever that serious people like Colin Powell continue to believe that there is some nice way to "solve the Iranian problem." Would that it were so. But, as we are reminded every day by the wonderful dentist in Baghdad who bravely blogs away at www.healingiraq.com, in the words of Jonathan Swift, "It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of what he was never reasoned into." The regime in Tehran is not reasonable, it is fanatical. It has waged war against us for a quarter century and it intends to destroy us. It claims to act in the name of all Islam, and views us as the greatest Satanic force on earth. It will not come to terms with us, because its very essence is hatred of us and of everything we represent. Knowing that the vast majority of its own people hate the regime and loves America, it murders, tortures, and oppresses them. When the mullahs appear to be acting reasonably and tell us they wish to help us fight terrorism, it is a deception, not an expression of their real desires.

Yet many of our leaders, fine men and women all, continue to believe that the liberation of Iraq and Afghanistan suffice to let us return to diplomacy as usual, even as the entire Western world ties itself in knots to protect against the next assault from the terror masters. Rome is declared off limits to aircraft, along with the Las Vegas strip, the Rose Bowl, Times Square, endless domed stadiums, and major parts of Washington D.C. Western citizens are implored to leave Saudi Arabia. British Airways, Qantas, and all carriers headed for the United States are placing armed guards on their aircraft. No one seriously believes that a threat of such magnitude is generated by the remnants of al Qaeda, operating from a remote border region of Pakistan. It obviously requires the cooperation of powerful regimes and professional intelligence services.

But if that is true, why do we act as if the terror war in Iraq is solely the product of the shattered remnants of Saddam's failed state? What level of violence, how many dead or mutilated Americans, Italians, Poles, Spaniards, Japanese, United Nations and Red Cross workers, are required before we come to grips with the fact that we are engaged in a regional terror war? Did "homeless Saddam" look like the commander of a guerrilla war spreading across a large nation?

Look again at the scenes in Bam. The destruction of that once fabulously beautiful city is a symbol of what the regime has done to Iran, once a wealthy and prosperous and creative country. Look at the many reports on the awful degradation of Iranian society, now leading the region in suicide and teenage prostitution, its standard of living a pitiful shadow of what it was before the Islamic Revolution of 1979, its infrastructure in tatters, its armed forces distrusted by the country's leaders, its students under virtual house arrest, its newspapers and magazines silenced, its talented moviemakers and writers and scientists and artists fleeing to the West whenever they see a crack in the nation's walls. Look at the damning human-rights reports. Read the harsh condemnation of the mullahs' relentless censorship from Reporters sans Frontières," which calls Iran the world's greatest predator of free press. And listen to the cries of the Bam survivors as they ask why this had to happen, why no help arrived until long after the disaster struck, and why the mullahs preferred to see thousands of them die, rather than accept humanitarian assistance from the Jews.

And then ask our leaders what in the world we are waiting for, and why we insist on believing that a regime so demonstrably evil deserves to have good relations with the United States, and why a people so demonstrably on our side, and so demonstrably worthy of freedom, does not deserve our full support.

— Michael Ledeen, an NRO contributing editor, is most recently the author of The War Against the Terror Masters. Ledeen is Resident Scholar in the Freedom Chair at the American Enterprise Institute.

http://www.nationalreview.com/ledeen/ledeen200401050837.asp

Iran's leadership to consider shifting capital

TEHRAN, Jan 5, (AFP) -- Iran's top national security body will this week "seriously" examine proposals to shift the Islamic republic's political capital out of quake-prone Tehran following the devasting earthquake in the southeast of the country, state television reported Monday.

Hassan Rowhani, a top cleric who heads the Supreme National Security Council, said the body would Saturday "seriously study the problem of moving the capital."

"The capital must be moved," he told national television, adding the proposal had been floating around since 1991 but had since failed to gain any momentum and the full cooperation of all government bodies.

On December 26, Iran's southeastern city of Bam was flattened by a quake measuring 6.3 on the Richter scale. At least 30,000 people were killed, with around 80% of the city destroyed.

Tehran, which sprawls over 1,600 square kilometers (640 square miles) and is home to some 12 million people, straddles three major fault lines.

Experts say a major earthquake can be expected here every 150 years. The last one occurred around 1830.

Under normal circumstances, Tehran's plethora of narrow streets are some of the most clogged in the world. Traffic jams can leave people stranded for hours, and experts fear that if a massive quake hits it would be almost impossible for emergency teams to reach the victims.

http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?NewsCode=21300&NewsKind=Current%20Affairs

Iran to launch satellite with own rocket within 18 months

TEHRAN (AFP) - Iran's defence minister said the Islamic republic would put its own satellite into orbit with an Iranian-made launch system within 18 months.

"Within 18 months Iran will launch its own satellite. Iran will be the first Islamic country to enter the stratosphere with its own satellite and its own, indigenous launch system," Defence Minister Ali Shamkhani was quoted as saying Monday by the official news agency IRNA.

"The aerospace capacity of the Islamic republic is one of the main means of deterrence for the country, and is acquired through cooperation between the defence industries and universities," he added.

The minister did not say what type of satellite would be launched.

"There was a time when the Persian Gulf was a source of threats against the Islamic republic, but today with the power we have obtained this region can no longer be used against us by any non-regional power," IRNA quoted him as saying.

Shamkhani's comments are believed to be the first time a senior Iranian official has put a timescale on the country's space programme, and his comments could spark fresh alarm over the extent of the Islamic republic's ballistic missile capability.

Tehran finalised its testing of the Shahab-3 missile in June 2003. The missile is thought to be capable of carrying a 1,000 kilogramme (one-tonne) warhead at least 1,300 kilometers (800 miles) -- therefore bringing arch-enemy Israel within range.

Six Shahab-3 missiles were paraded in Tehran in September during the festivities marking the outbreak of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq (news - web sites) war, and one of them carried a banner declaring "We will wipe Israel from the map".

The Shahab-3 is believed to be derived from technology acquired from North Korea (news - web sites) and Pakistan.

But the defence ministry has since moved to allay international fears by asserting it intends to tweak the Shahab-3 and not develop longer-range missiles for military purposes.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20040105/wl_mideast_afp/iran_military_space_040105154636

Note: Getting dangerous...

Survivors of Iran Quake Find Little Help

January 05, 2004
The Associated Press
Matthew Pennington

BAM, Iran -- Huddled in canvas tents pitched by roadsides, tens of thousands of people who survived the earthquake in southeastern Iran find themselves competing with neighbors for aid and wondering when reconstruction will begin in their devastated city.

Amid complaints of inadequate or poorly distributed aid, aftershocks continue to spook residents, including one Sunday that cracked masonry in the city of 80,000 people.

The Dec. 26 earthquake leveled much of Bam, killing about 35,000 people in the city and surrounding region. Aid has poured in from the Iranian government, the United Nations, and individual countries, including the United States, which dispatched a field hospital.

But Iran's government on Sunday once again rebuffed Washington's offer of a high-profile aid team led by Sen. Elizabeth Dole, a North Carolina Republic and former Red Cross official, saying the time "is not ripe" for such an exchange.

Meanwhile, people in Bam express frustration with aid distribution.

Many complain that people from neighboring towns and villages have barreled in and taken away tents, blankets and supplies meant for quake victims in what is one of the country's poorest regions.

"We don't get proper food here," said Gholamali Fahraji, who camps with some 30 families on the Imam Khameini traffic circle. "We heard there were sleeping bags, but we've seen none. There's no transportation and I'm afraid people will steal my things from the ruins of my home."

Others say the temporary shelters do not provide adequate protection from the biting nighttime cold and not enough space.

Akbar Tarin shares a 6-foot by 13-foot tent one with his wife and five children.

"I will go to a camp if they set one up," said Tarin a 54-year-old retired teacher. "It won't be easy to rebuild this house at my age, and with my income."

Tarin's home, like most in Bam, collapsed in the early morning earthquake. All that remains is a pile of mud bricks and cracked masonry.

"Everything has been broken and torn apart," he said as he sat on the rubble of his home of 21 years, next to rolled up carpets, dust-smeared cushions and a bent bicycle.

The United Nations said it plans to launch an appeal this week to fund the next three months of relief and also plans to erect what it calls semi-permanent homes for some 50,000 people.

The one such camp already in place — with about 150 spacious, laminated tents — lies empty as authorities register citizens, distribute ration cards and assess cases.

Iranian authorities said that within 18 months they hope to rebuild Bam, an oasis of date palms and fruit trees. For now, though, people wait to be resettled in temporary camps with heated tents or prefabricated houses to protect them from the extreme nighttime cold.

Despite the difficulties, many in Bam know that others have lost much more than they have, said Dr. Mojtaba Sehat, a 33-year-old physician who was dispensing medicine to survivors in tents.

"The people here can tolerate this huge accident," said Sehat. "That's because they only have to look to the tent next door or the one after to see someone who has lost even more than they have."

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040104/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iran_earthquake_193

Iran gives view on talks with US

FT.com
By Mohsen Asgari and Gareth Smyth in Tehran
Published: January 5 2004 4:00 |
Last Updated: January 5 2004 4:00

Iranian leaders said at the weekend that they turned down a US proposal for a humanitarian visit led by Elizabeth Dole, a Republican senator and former Red Cross president, because they preferred a direct approach to political differences.

The proposed mission would have assessed aid priorities for victims of the recent earthquake in the south-eastern town of Bam.

"Political issues must be examined and resolved in their own place, for which there are conditions," said Kamal Kharrazi, the foreign minister.

The US's suspension of some sanctions against Iran to assist relief efforts last week prompted speculation that the two countries were set to thaw diplomatic relations frozen since 1979.

Hamid Reza Asefi, the foreign ministry spokesman, reiterated yesterday that Iran was open to talks based on "mutual respect" but insisted the US should not "tell Iran what to do".

The US has demanded that Iran give up an alleged nuclear weapons programme' end support to militant Palestinian groups and hand over members of al-Qaeda that Washington alleges are in Iran.

Tehran wants the US to end all sanctions and unblock Iranian assets in US banks.

Mr Asefi voiced Iranian concern that Washington was speaking with "different voices" - apparently referring to the differing tone of last week's statements by Colin Powell, secretary of state, and President George W. Bush.

Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, influential chairman of Iran's Expediency Council, said the issue of talks with the US should be handled by the Supreme Council of National Security, which recently reached agreement with the European Union and the International Atomic Energy Agency over Iran's nuclear programme.

His comments seemed designed to reassure Washington that it would find a reliable negotiator in Tehran.

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1073280779878

Iran mulls moving capital to Esfahan

Monday 05 January 2004, 14:46 Makka Time, 11:46 GMT

Iranian policymakers are considering moving the national capital from quake-prone Tehran to Esfahan to avoid a repeat of the death and destruction at Bam.

"The Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) will shortly discuss a plan to move the capital from Tehran," SNSC chief Hasan Ruhani was quoted as saying by the Hayat-e No newspaper.

Ruhani said a plan to move the capital, which lies on a major seismological fault, was proposed by the SNSC in 1991, "but due to resistance from certain entities in the establishment, the plan was halted".

Even before the 26 December quake in Bam, which measured 6.8 on the Richter scale and killed more than 30,000, seismologists had warned that a strong earthquake in Tehran would have catastrophic consequences for the city of 12 million people.

Bahram Akashah, professor of geophysics at Tehran University, said a quake of similar magnitude to that in Bam would kill more than 700,000 people.

Government buildings would be destroyed, leaving the state powerless to respond.

Proposal

Akashah has written to President Muhammad Khatami to propose moving the capital to the central city of Esfahan, which was the country's capital in the late 16th century under monarch Shah Abbas the Great.

The capital was moved to Tehran in 1788.

Tehran was last hit by a major earthquake in 1830, but seismologists say a major fault line is located along the base of the Alborz mountains in the north of the capital.

Numerous small tremors jolt the city each year.

The Aftab-e Yazd newspaper on Monday reported Health Ministry estimates that a quake measuring 7 on the Richter scale would destroy 90% of the city's hospitals.

Ruhani said the SNSC would update its 1991 proposal on moving the capital and submit it for consideration by the end of the Iranian calendar year in March 2004.

He did not say to where the capital could be moved.

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/FF764DBA-EDF7-4D79-A01F-1F62BDFE9C04.htm

Most revealing article....wish there was more info on the writer and data. If this is all true, then we're witnessing the breakdown and demise of the regime. Very similar to Soviet Union and E. Germany. I've been noticing this comparison myself lately.
Countries that try to remain isolationist even in part, do not fair well, and the rest of the world moves on without them. Interesting that Reza Pahlavi thinks that Iran's isolationism is a strength to the regime. Yes and no. Were it able to be totally isolated and self sufficient, yes it would be. But having some financial interests in other countries, and depending on others for economic survival, leads down the path to ruin for isolationists. It seems to be an all or nothing proposition.
The technological advances allowed into the country, have been the most important disrupters to their closed society. You can't show people what the rest of the world is enjoying, and not expect them to want it also. The "leak in the (regime's) dike" has slowly been increasing from a trickle to a torrent. The regime is at a point of having to make major decisions regarding their country, if they want to survive politically and economically. If they don't regress to an almost total isolationist country and become self sufficient, it will be the end of the regime. They will no longer have any control over the people if they make deals with more countries to become participants of the "real world". Unfortunately, as we've seen with other countries, the flood of the "real world" into a previously closed or "over-protected" society, initially has negative results sociologically. The deprivation suffered by the people creates a hunger for things previously forbidden. And opportunistic vultures descend also.
Assuming that the regime self destructs in the near future,(as it looks like it's doing) the country and it's people are in for hard times before things improve. I hope they're prepared. They may be tempted at some point to return to a more "orderly", sheltered existence. I hope they resist that temptation and remember well the past. The world can't protect them from the dark side of life, but the isolation of a fundamentalist theocracy allows in no sunlight at all.
MHO - of course.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.