Poll: Bush in Strong Position With Voters (Update)

San Diego Union-Tribune ^ | 01/09/04 | Will Lester (A.P.)

[Holly_P]

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Bolstered by lopsided backing from core supporters, President Bush is in a stronger position with voters than his father or Bill Clinton were at the same stage of their re-election bids, an Associated Press poll found.

Men, evangelicals and rural voters are supporting Bush by big margins at the start of this election year, while traditionally Democratic-leaning groups such as women have more divided loyalties, according to the poll. The public's growing confidence in the economy is helping boost Bush's standing as well.

More people say they will definitely vote for Bush's re-election, 41 percent, than say they will definitely vote against him, 33 percent, according to the poll conducted for the AP by Ipsos-Public Affairs. An additional 24 percent said they would consider voting for someone else.

"I can't imagine not voting for Bush," said William Miller, a 66-year-old retiree from Hartsville, S.C., who calls himself a political independent. "I'm very glad he was in office on 9-11. I feel like he's got a good handle on what we have to do in the international arena, and his economic polices seem to be coming around."

On the question of re-electing Bush or definitely voting for someone else, men were for Bush by 49 percent to 26 percent. And rural voters were for him by an equally lopsided margin. White evangelicals said they would support Bush rather than vote for someone else by an even wider margin.

Bush is in significantly better shape with the public than either Clinton or the first President Bush were at this stage in their re-election bids and about the same as Ronald Reagan before his landslide re-election victory in 1984.

People were about evenly divided on Clinton and the elder Bush at this stage of their presidencies.

On the current president's re-election, 39 percent of women said they would definitely vote for someone else and 35 percent said they would vote for Bush.

Elizabeth Born, who's raising her son in Portland, Ore., said she's very unhappy with Bush.

"I don't like the way he's represented the United States to the rest of the world," she said. "We're really hated. He embodies the stereotype of Americans the rest of the world may have."

In the AP-Ipsos poll, Bush had a 49 percent to 42 percent lead over Wesley Clark and bigger margins when matched against several other Democratic candidates. He led Howard Dean by 54-39 percent, John Kerry by 54-37 and Dick Gephardt by 56-35.

Bush's job approval in the poll was 56 percent after a boost last month following the capture of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. Six in 10 approve of his handling of foreign policy and terrorism.

More than half, 53 percent, approve of his handling of the economy.

The AP-Ipsos poll of 1,000 adults, including 774 registered voters, was taken Jan. 5-7 and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

[finnman69]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/commentary.html#1_9_03_0823

TAKING A SECOND LOOK: Adam Nagourney and Carl Hulse suggest in today's NY Times that a number of Iowa Democrats are reevaluting their initial support of Howard Dean:

Still, in dozens of conversations with voters across central Iowa over the past three days, it became clear that some Democrats are taking a second look at the doctor from Vermont whose candidacy has transformed the Democratic presidential contest.

Such qualms could benefit Senator John Edwards of North Carolina and Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts. Both were often mentioned by voters as strong alternatives to Dr. Dean.

It looks like there might be the tiniest bit of support for this theory in one of the two new polls released out of Iowa yesterday. SurveyUSA has Kerry and Edwards improving a couple of ticks from their previous position and Dean sliding just a bit, but it's really hard to say.

If there is in fact a reevaluation of Dean taking place among voters it will certainly be helped along by two other items in the news this morning. The first is this story, which reports that while appearing on a Canadian television show in 2000 discussing politics, Dean described the Iowa caucuses as a "waste of time" and "dominated by the special interests." It will be interesting to see Mr. "I Just Tell It Like It Is" do damage control on this one, and it may cause a few more defections to Kerry or Edwards.

The other story of note is the new AP-Ipsos poll out this morning with the following head-to-head numbers:

Bush 54%, Dean 39%
Bush 54%, Kerry 37%
Bush 56%, Gephardt 35%
Bush 49%, Clark 42%

It's the second poll this week showing Dean getting absolutely shellacked by the President in a head-to-head match up. Clark's strength against Bush relative to the rest of the field should keep the "reevaluation process" of Dean in motion around the country.

But it also presents a special dilemma for some Iowans. If you're a Clark supporter in Iowa (the KCCI poll released yesterday showed 3% support for Clark though it could be more than that) or if you're a pragmatic undecided who is concerned first and foremost with beating George W. Bush in November and it's looking more and more like Clark might be your party's best bet, who do you cast your vote for on January 19?

I suspect the answer is you throw your lot in with Gephardt and try to knock Dean off in Iowa and hope that leads to a really strong showing for Clark in New Hampshire eight days later.

[Support Free Republic]

Rank	Location	Receipts	Donors/Avg		Freepers/Avg		Monthlies
27	Arkansas	260.00	10	26.00	120	2.17	50.00	4

Thanks for donating to Free Republic!

Move your locale up the leaderboard!

[chimera]

"I don't like the way he's represented the United States to the rest of the world," she said. "We're really hated. He embodies the stereotype of Americans the rest of the world may have."

Such stupid vanity. It gets so tiring. Why are these scumwads so worried about what other people think of us? We should be more concerned about doing what is right, and looking out for our own. The President is constitutionally charged with protecting the lives of American citizens. Going after those who have baldly stated that they want to kill us is certainly a justifiable priority.

[nightdriver]

"Men, evangelicals and rural voters are supporting Bush by big margins at the start of this election year....

I'll certainly vote for W unless some conservative beats him in the primary.

I'm not at all happy at the way he tries to out-democRAT the democRATs!

[Solson]

Clark is surging in NH and everywhere else. He will be the nominee.

[Az Joe]

Looks good bump!

[My2Cents]

Elizabeth Born, who's raising her son in Portland, Ore., said she's very unhappy with Bush. "I don't like the way he's represented the United States to the rest of the world," she said. "We're really hated. He embodies the stereotype of Americans the rest of the world may have."

No offense to the right thinking women on FR, but I wonder if we can push to repeal the 19th Amendment.

[Maria S]

"Clark is surging in NH and everywhere else. He will be the nominee."

In which case, HRC will be the vice-presidential nominee?

[My2Cents]

Bush 49%, Clark 42%

Probably the same damned 42% who voted for Clinton in 1992.

[Jodi]

"I don't like the way he's represented the United States to the rest of the world," she said. "We're really hated. He embodies the stereotype of Americans the rest of the world may have."

I am so sick of women like this who spend so much of their time and energy worrying about how other people feel about them. I wish the media would come to me for a quote. I could give a rat's ass what France and Germany think of us, as long as the Prez keeps us safe.

[My2Cents]

She, and every other American, should be thrilled that the scum of the earth don't like us.

[Solson]

Nah, Dean will be the Veep. They need his war chest for the general election.

Hillary will take over as Senate Minority Leader for Daschle.

Clark will vow to only serve one term because he wants to be the "outsider" candidate. Thus, if by some freak of nature Clark wins, he sets it up for Hillary in 2008.

[Holly_P]

I wonder if we can push to repeal the 19th Amendment.

Sure. While we are fine tuning the constitution, lets add an amendment making abortion retroactive.

[bray]

"I don't like the way he's represented the United States to the rest of the world," she said. "We're really hated. He embodies the stereotype of Americans the rest of the world may have."

Two words......who cares! Had to come to the Peoples Republic to find this quote! He will carry Oregon!

Pray for W and The Truth

[Yardstick]

...while traditionally Democratic-leaning groups such as women...

Single women, yes, but don't married women tilt Republican?

[GOPJ]

If Bush was at 99.999999% favorable, the press would find one woman to quote who hated him. How about a quote that has something to do with the story, rather than unending "reporter prejudice" quotes?

On the current president's re-election, 39 percent of women said they would definitely vote for someone else and 35 percent said they would vote for Bush. Elizabeth Born, who's raising her son in Portland, Ore., said she's very unhappy with Bush.

[My2Cents]

I'd support a constitutional amendment which protects Americans' right to shoot first and ask questions later.

[Richard Kimball]

Clark will vow to only serve one term because he wants to be the "outsider" candidate. Thus, if by some freak of nature Clark wins, he sets it up for Hillary in 2008.

He may say that now, but once he's the President, he might not be quite as controllable (I don't think he'll get elected, just hypothetical musing here).

BTW, whatever happened to Carol Mosely Braun? Her web site's still up, but I've heard more out of Jimmy Hoffa than her for the last month.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Bump!