Posted on 01/09/2004 1:31:18 PM PST by Holly_P
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Bolstered by lopsided backing from core supporters, President Bush is in a stronger position with voters than his father or Bill Clinton were at the same stage of their re-election bids, an Associated Press poll found.
Men, evangelicals and rural voters are supporting Bush by big margins at the start of this election year, while traditionally Democratic-leaning groups such as women have more divided loyalties, according to the poll. The public's growing confidence in the economy is helping boost Bush's standing as well.
More people say they will definitely vote for Bush's re-election, 41 percent, than say they will definitely vote against him, 33 percent, according to the poll conducted for the AP by Ipsos-Public Affairs. An additional 24 percent said they would consider voting for someone else.
"I can't imagine not voting for Bush," said William Miller, a 66-year-old retiree from Hartsville, S.C., who calls himself a political independent. "I'm very glad he was in office on 9-11. I feel like he's got a good handle on what we have to do in the international arena, and his economic polices seem to be coming around."
On the question of re-electing Bush or definitely voting for someone else, men were for Bush by 49 percent to 26 percent. And rural voters were for him by an equally lopsided margin. White evangelicals said they would support Bush rather than vote for someone else by an even wider margin.
Bush is in significantly better shape with the public than either Clinton or the first President Bush were at this stage in their re-election bids and about the same as Ronald Reagan before his landslide re-election victory in 1984.
People were about evenly divided on Clinton and the elder Bush at this stage of their presidencies.
On the current president's re-election, 39 percent of women said they would definitely vote for someone else and 35 percent said they would vote for Bush.
Elizabeth Born, who's raising her son in Portland, Ore., said she's very unhappy with Bush.
"I don't like the way he's represented the United States to the rest of the world," she said. "We're really hated. He embodies the stereotype of Americans the rest of the world may have."
In the AP-Ipsos poll, Bush had a 49 percent to 42 percent lead over Wesley Clark and bigger margins when matched against several other Democratic candidates. He led Howard Dean by 54-39 percent, John Kerry by 54-37 and Dick Gephardt by 56-35.
Bush's job approval in the poll was 56 percent after a boost last month following the capture of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. Six in 10 approve of his handling of foreign policy and terrorism.
More than half, 53 percent, approve of his handling of the economy.
The AP-Ipsos poll of 1,000 adults, including 774 registered voters, was taken Jan. 5-7 and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Hmmmm. Thats one of the many things that endears me to him. US Foreign Policy shouldnt be based on the Worlds opinion of us. Thats how Clinton governed.
President Bush and the American Heartland will drag the "Liberal" slugs of the decadent "Liberal" enclaves of America, Europe, and outlying regions, kicking and screaming, into the coming Renaissance, whether they like it or not!
They hate The Hero, who has come to lead them out of the darkness of decadence and into the light--such is the nature of their sickness--but he'll lead them nevertheless, in spite of themselves.
Because they are stupid.
That said, Gephardt's best chance to advance his candidacy is to win Iowa. Anything less, and his candidacy is almost certainly doomed. The media will feed the "expectations" game with Dean and Clark, saying Dean didn't win by enough (if he wins), and Clark "did better than expected" if he comes in 3rd or better. Real votes don't matter to the media except insofar as they can manipulate public perceptions of the results.
I'm certain other FReepers have noticed that Clark is CNN's favorite candidate. He also seems to be the favorite of some NBC luminaries like Couric. He seems to fill the same role for the media this year as John McCain filled in 2000 — the dark-horse candidate who adds a dramatic plot-line to the early presidential primary season.
Clark is the "dark-horse's ass" candidate. I agree that the media loves manipulating the thinking of the "stoopid" wing of the electorate. Bill Clinton lost in NH in '92, but the media proclaimed his finish a "moral victory," and anointed him as the candidate with "momentum." The way the media robs the majority of voters of their choice and the significance of their vote is offensive.
You're right, of course, about the way the media spins and promotes poll findings. I remember Chris Matthews still citing an LA Times poll of the recall election showing Bustamante a couple of points ahead of Arnold, even AFTER two other more recent polls came out showing Arnold with a comfortable lead over Bustamante. These polls have one purpose: as propaganda fodder for the media. This is why I think it's delicious when, say, a CNN poll, or an ABC poll comes out showing Bush increasing his lead over all candidates, or support for our effort in Iraq growing. It leaves the media with little to spin. It's like they spent all that money to conduct a poll, and the results blew up in their faces.
Another point on opinion surveys -- As a statistician friend told me recently, "If you bludgeon the data long enough, you can make it confess to anything."
Wonderful, concise way to put it. If you also bludgeon the people enough...it's no accident that polls immediately after an event say one thing, while polls about that same event some time afterwards say something entirely different. Marketing and public relations works. What passes for "news" and "entertainment" these days, is little more than marketing for Leftist dogma.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.