January 24, 2004Edwards and Kerry Gain Among Democrats in South Carolina
John Edwards and John Kerry have made the greatest gains in ballot preference among likely Democratic primary voters in South Carolina since mid-December according to a new survey conducted on the eve of the New Hampshire primary by the American Research Group. Ballot preference for Edwards in the February 3 South Carolina primary is now 21%, up from 8% in December and ballot preference for Kerry is now 17%, up from 2% in December. Ballot preference for Howard Dean is 9%, down from 16% in December, placing him fifth compared to his first-place showing in December. Al Sharpton is in third place at 15% and he is followed closely by Wesley Clark at 14%. Joe Lieberman is at 5%, Dennis Kucinich is at 1%, and 18% of likely Democratic primary voters remain undecided. These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of registered voters in South Carolina saying they will definitely vote in the Democratic presidential preference primary on February 3, 2004. The interviews were conducted January 23 and 24, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split. Kerry and Edwards have gained support since December, Dean has lost support since December, and support for Clark, Sharpton, Lieberman, and Kucinich is virtually unchanged since the December survey.
|
|
2003: |
2004: |
Likely Democratic
primary voters |
Jan |
Apr |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
|
|
| Carol Moseley Braun |
NI |
1% |
1% |
4% |
5% |
3% |
3% |
NI |
| Wesley Clark |
0% |
0% |
0% |
7% |
17% |
15% |
12% |
14% |
| Howard Dean |
2% |
2% |
3% |
6% |
7% |
9% |
16% |
9% |
| John Edwards |
8% |
7% |
10% |
16% |
10% |
7% |
8% |
21% |
| Dick Gephardt |
11% |
9% |
8% |
5% |
7% |
7% |
7% |
NI |
| John Kerry |
1% |
8% |
6% |
5% |
4% |
3% |
2% |
17% |
| Dennis Kucinich |
NI |
0% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
| Joe Lieberman |
22% |
19% |
14% |
7% |
8% |
9% |
7% |
5% |
| Al Sharpton |
4% |
3% |
4% |
5% |
5% |
9% |
12% |
15% |
| Undecided |
51% |
47% |
48% |
42% |
36% |
32% |
29% |
18% |
| NI - Not included |
Among the 58% of likely Democratic primary voters who are white, Edwards (22%), Kerry (20%), and Clark (19%) are statistically tied for the lead. Among the 42% of likely Democratic primary voters who are black, Sharpton leads with 27%, followed by Edwards at 19% and Kerry at 13%. A total of 14% of white likely Democratic primary voters are undecided in the primary contest and 24% of black likely Democratic primary voters are undecided.
| Ballot |
Overall |
White (58%) |
Black (42%) |
|
|
| Clark |
14% |
19% |
7% |
| Dean |
9% |
10% |
8% |
| Edwards |
21% |
22% |
19% |
| Kerry |
17% |
20% |
13% |
| Kucinich |
1% |
1% |
1% |
| Lieberman |
5% |
8% |
1% |
| Sharpton |
15% |
6% |
27% |
| Undecided |
18% |
14% |
24% |
About this survey: Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc. Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of registered voters in South Carolina saying they would definitely vote in the Democratic presidential preference primary on February 3. Sample Dates: January 23-24, 2004 Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split. Question wording: If the South Carolina Democratic Presidential Preference Primary were being held today between Wesley Clark, Howard Dean, John Edwards, John Kerry, Dennis Kucinich, Joe Lieberman, and Al Sharpton, for whom would you vote? (NAMES ROTATED) |
