Iranian Alert -- February 18, 2004 -- IRAN LIVE THREAD --Americans for Regime Change in Iran

The US media almost entirely ignores news regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran. As Tony Snow of the Fox News Network has put it, “this is probably the most under-reported news story of the year.” But most American’s are unaware that the Islamic Republic of Iran is NOT supported by the masses of Iranians today. Modern Iranians are among the most pro-American in the Middle East.

There is a popular revolt against the Iranian regime brewing in Iran today. Starting June 10th of this year, Iranians have begun taking to the streets to express their desire for a regime change. Most want to replace the regime with a secular democracy. Many even want the US to over throw their government.

The regime is working hard to keep the news about the protest movement in Iran from being reported. Unfortunately, the regime has successfully prohibited western news reporters from covering the demonstrations. The voices of discontent within Iran are sometime murdered, more often imprisoned. Still the people continue to take to the streets to demonstrate against the regime.

In support of this revolt, Iranians in America have been broadcasting news stories by satellite into Iran. This 21st century news link has greatly encouraged these protests. The regime has been attempting to jam the signals, and locate the satellite dishes. Still the people violate the law and listen to these broadcasts. Iranians also use the Internet and the regime attempts to block their access to news against the regime. In spite of this, many Iranians inside of Iran read these posts daily to keep informed of the events in their own country.

This daily thread contains nearly all of the English news reports on Iran. It is thorough. If you follow this thread you will witness, I believe, the transformation of a nation. This daily thread provides a central place where those interested in the events in Iran can find the best news and commentary. The news stories and commentary will from time to time include material from the regime itself. But if you read the post you will discover for yourself, the real story of what is occurring in Iran and its effects on the war on terror.

I am not of Iranian heritage. I am an American committed to supporting the efforts of those in Iran seeking to replace their government with a secular democracy. I am in contact with leaders of the Iranian community here in the United States and in Iran itself.

If you read the daily posts you will gain a better understanding of the US war on terrorism, the Middle East and why we need to support a change of regime in Iran. Feel free to ask your questions and post news stories you discover in the weeks to come.

If all goes well Iran will be free soon and I am convinced become a major ally in the war on terrorism. The regime will fall. Iran will be free. It is just a matter of time.

Here is some text from France, Le Monde Diplomatique:

"By signing, together with the French, German and British foreign ministers, an agreement under which Tehran undertakes to respect international nuclear rules, Hassan Rouhani, head of the supreme national security council, breached for the first time the wall of fear that paralysed decision-making within Iran's theocracy (6). Instead of taking refuge behind the anti-Israeli and anti-US cant that hid a huge political vacuum, the Islamic government has understood the changes at international and national level. It has agreed, with no possibility of turning back, to enter into a partnership and abandon a policy of separation and clandestine action. The measures to introduce transparency that Iran has taken in an area as sensitive as nuclear weapons still have to be supplemented and confirmed to restore confidence and facilitate alliances, but the decision of principle has been taken.

The agreement in the nuclear field, in which France played a key role, is also revolutionary for Europe. For the first time in 50 years it has seized the initiative from the US and proved that its method is effective. While applying pressure and occasionally threats, Europe proposed a positive outcome that met Iran?s needs and legitimate expectations: access to modern technologies and a role in regional security.

Whereas 25 years of US ostracism had had no effect in Iran, the European initiative promising an immediate outcome meant that it was possible both to provide security guarantees to the international community and to condemn the erring ways of revolutionary Iran.

Renault's decision to create a car plant, at a cost of $891,469,215, intended to replace the famous Peykan, which has been in production for more than 40 years, confirms Iran?s stability and its lack of major political or economic risks. That investment shows that Iran is no longer considered at risk of turmoil because of some new revolution that would block its development. Like Total, when it breached the US oil embargo in 1995, Renault has understood the real implications of Iran's awakening. Other companies are following.

For now, developments in Iran continue to be marked by conflict and even tragedy. Through the (unelected) Council of Guardians, the theocracy in power continues to undermine the electoral process: it is disqualifying the opposition even before the elections and refusing to adopt legislation. But the situation is no longer that of the 1990s, since external and internal forces now form an indivisible whole. That has not prevented some Iranian conservatives and technocrats from hoping for a system on the Chinese or Saudi model, open to technology but closed to ideas. Nor has it prevented US neo-conservatives from demanding radical regime change.

But both these groups have failed to appreciate the extent to which Iran has evolved over the past 25 years. Through nationalism, Islam and knowledge, Iran has become used to independence and Iranian society used to freedom of expression, preceding freedom of action."

Source: http://mondediplo.com/2004/02/02iran

Comment: A lot of crap from the frogs.

LAST REFORMISTS MMs LETTER TO KHAMENEH’I "TOO LATE, TOO WEAK".

TEHRAN, 18 Feb. (IPS)

As expected, Iran’s media, official as well as the few that speak for the reformists refrained from publishing the last letter wrote by more than a hundred Members of the Majles barred from running in the coming elections to Ayatollah Ali Khameneh’i, accusing him indirectly for the mass disqualification of reformist candidates by the Council of the Guardians.

"The organs under your authority, having for four years humiliated the Majles and the representatives of the people by blocking legislation, have openly blocked the most basic right of the people: to choose and be chosen", the lawmakers said, referring to the 12-members CG that is controlled by the leader.

The letter was read and distributed at the Majles by a group of some 70 reformist deputies who have resigned over the disqualifications.

"Who is bully, the men who are elected by the people and defend their rights or those who violate people’s basic rights, that of choosing freely their representatives", the signatories asked Mr. Khameneh’i, referring to the term of "the bullies" he used in a recent speech to denounce the protesting lawmakers who had staged a protest sit-in.

This was the second time that reformist lawmakers wrote an open letter to the leader, warning him against the continuation of conservative’s policies imposing their wishes to the entire nation.

"If there is a cup of poison to be taken, it is now, or the whole of the regime would face extinction", the deputies had warned last May, after the CG rejected the bills presented earlier to the Majles by the government of the embattled President Mohammad Khatami aimed at curtailing some of the powers of the Guardians in the one hand and increasing some of the powers of the president.

However, the second letter read at the Majles on Wednesday was milder than the previous one, analysts noted, adding that "anyhow, like the previous letter, this one comes too late and stop short of addressing the main issues".

"The question consists of knowing how the Council of the Guardians was confident enough to resist your orders or whether, according to the rumour that is circulating and contrary to public statements, they obtained your permission by other means to persist in the illegal and massive disqualifications of candidates", they further asked, avoiding any direct criticism of the leader, an act that under the present laws of the Islamic Republic is considered as a criminal offence.

Though Ayatollah Khameneh’i had ordered the Guardians to "review" the case of some senior incumbent MMs, but they upheld their decision to ban some 2,300 candidates, including 80 reformist lwmakers, among them the younger brother of the President, Dr. Mohammad Reza Khatami, the first deputy-Speaker and leader of the Islamic Iran Participation Front.

Referring to a demand formulated by protesting MMs and backed by the Interior Ministry to postpone the date of the elections, due on Friday 20 February, the signatories observed that, "this (delaying the elections) would not have been contrary to Islam or the law".

But both "KHs" (Khatami and Khameneh’i) definitively ruled out, stating that elections must be held on due time and facing a serious mass abstention by the voters, the majority of them young generation badly deceived by the reformists, stated that voting is a "religious duty".

As a result, over 130 reformist lawmakers resigned and the IIPF and some other groups and formations in the Second Khordad Coalition that support Mr. Khatami decided not to go to the polls.

Late on Monday, President Khatami wrote "with a heavy heart" that a disgruntled and apathetic public should put aside complaints that the polls are unfair and try to keep out hardliners.

"It was a dramatic call from the weakened president, who had been elected on a pledge to deliver greater democracy, to the large numbers of voters, especially young people and women, who had put him and his allies in office", commented the French news agency AFP.

"Many people have the feeling that in many constituencies, they cannot vote for their preferred candidate. But with a little tolerance, they can search to find those candidates who are closest to their views," Khatami wrote in a statement carried by state news agency IRNA.

"The parliament formed by the Guardians and not the will of the people will would be a threat to our national security and independence instead of safeguarding them", the letter went on, adding: "We are very worried about the future and worry that the regime, without the support of the people, will be forced to surrender to foreign attacks".

"The turnout will be weak", predicted the younger Khatami. "People know that because of the disqualification of candidates, there is no point in voting", he added.

"If the elections are held without any vote riggings and frauds, it would become a kind of referendum", said Mr. Hoseyn Loqmanian, an outspoken reformist deputy from the western city of Hamadan and the only lawmaker who was jailed for a brief period on charges of insulting the leader.

President Khatami’s pathetic appeal reflects fears of a low turnout that would deal a serious blow to a regime that has cut itself from the people and has prided itself on having huge numbers of voters participate in past ballots.

A campaign by blacklisted reformist candidates, joined by many Iranian political formations and students, intellectual, scholar associations inside and outside Iran to shun Friday's election gained an illustrious endorsement Tuesday when Nobel Peace laureate Shirin Ebadi said she would not vote.

"I will not vote myself because I don't know those who have been qualified. I'm not ready to vote for someone I don't know", the human rights activist and lawyer said in an interview with the British news agency Reuters.

"The first principle of democracy is that people should have the right to vote for anyone they want", she noted.

Her comment was a blow to efforts by the ruling conservatives to mobilize a big turnout Friday despite widespread public apathy and anger among the mass of the voters.

The exclusion of some 2,500 contenders had "damaged people's freedom to vote", she said, observing that the outgoing reformist-dominated parliament had made little progress in improving human rights because the Guardians had vetoed all key legislation.

"For example, parliament had voted to join an international convention outlawing discrimination against women but the Council had blocked it. Khatami's power to effect change was limited by the constitution", she said.

"People want them to eliminate discrimination based on sex, people want more freedom of speech, people want more democracy, people want more respect for human rights", she said.

http://www.iran-press-service.com/articles_2004/Feb_04/iran_disqualifications_letter_18204.htm

Largest Oil Deal in Decades

February 19, 2004
Reuters
Nzoom.com

Iran has sealed a ground-breaking deal with Japan for a controversial oilfield project, delayed by US allegations that Tehran is in pursuit of a nuclear weapons programme.

Valued at US$2 billion, the contract for part of the giant Azadegan field is one of the biggest international oil contracts since the 1979 Islamic revolution and represents a significant boost for Iran's efforts to attract foreign capital.

It will see Japan Petroleum Exploration, INPEX Corp and Tomen Corp develop the southern half of Azadegan, one of the world's largest untapped oilfields.

The deal was the result of four years of on-off negotiations.

Azadegan, near the border with neighbouring Iraq, reinvigorates Iran's drive for investment, stalled for years by internal power struggles and Washington's attempts to isolate Tehran.

"This is a long overdue step," said Philip K Verleger, visiting fellow at the US Institute for International Economics said ahead of the signing.

"The United States has unfortunately used its influence in an effort to discourage Japanese investment in Iran."

Investment in the massive field, which contains 25-35 billion barrels of reserves, adds to some US$13 billion of foreign cash which has trickled into Iran's energy sector over the past nine years.

Heavily reliant on oil imports, Japan has been juggling its desire to strike a deal with a major Middle East producer against US pressure to wait because of concerns in Washington that Iran was developing nuclear weapons.

Iran, already Japan's third largest oil supplier, has denied the charges but promised to co-operate with inspectors from the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Missed deadline

Tehran reopened its oil and gas sector in 1995 with European companies like French Total and, more recently, Anglo-Dutch Shell taking the lead.

American companies are barred by unilateral US sanctions but Washington has never tried to implement the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act, designed to discourage non-US firms from investing in those countries.

Azadegan is thought capable of pumping up to 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) once fully onstream, pushing Tehran closer to its production capacity goal of 5 million barrels daily. Capacity is now pegged at 4.2 million bpd.

Plans to lift output capacity suffered a setback when the Japanese companies missed a June 2003 deadline to finalise a deal for Azadegan's southern sector, which is expected to pump 300,000 barrels daily.

Negotiations gathered pace after Tehran stepped up co-operation with the IAEA.

The northern half of Azadegan has attracted interest from China's Sinopec, Russia's LUKOIL, India's ONGC and Spain's Repsol.

http://onenews.nzoom.com/onenews_detail/0,1227,256488-1-453,00.html

Stalinist Mullahs

February 18, 2004
National Review Online
Michael Ledeen

The Iranian regime is in open battle with its own people.

Iran is now racing, literally hell-bent toward two dramatic confrontations: one within the country, between forces of tyranny and forces of democracy and/or reform. The other rages outside the country, a desperate war against the United States, its Coalition allies, and the Iraqis who support us. Both derive from the fundamental weakness of the fundamentalist regime, which has lost the support of the overwhelming majority of the Iranian people, and is increasingly defining itself a pariah state because of its support for terror and its brazen pursuit of atomic weapons.

Unreported in the American press and apparently unnoted by the leaders of the Bush administration, the regime is in open battle with its own people. In late January the regime's thugs murdered four workers, injured more than 40 others, and arrested nearly 100 more in Shahr-e Babak and the small village of Khatoonabad, prompting an official protest from the International Confederation of Free Trade Unions. (Would that the American trade-union movement had leaders worthy of the name, capable of expressing such outrage). Demonstrations five days ago in the western city of Marivan were so potent that the regime sent helicopter gunships to shoot down protestors, and there are reports that members of the regular armed forces joined the demonstrators. And in Hamadan, demonstrators clashed with security forces after the closure of the unfortunately named "Islamic Equity Ban." The demonstrators accused the bank managers of stealing the bank's money and smuggling it out of the country to their personal benefit, and that of the regime's top figures. The charge is credible because, as Western governments know well, large quantities of cash — just as in the case of Saddam Hussein — have been moved out of Iran in recent months by friends and relatives of the leading officials.

Much more attention has been given to the "hard-liners vs. reformers" kabuki dance leading up to Friday's parliamentary elections. The ritual dance itself-the hard-liners first removed thousands of reformers from the electoral lists, then, following protests, restored a few hundred — is not as important as most reporters and columnists would have us believe, since the makeup of the parliament has nothing to do with the real exercise of power in Iran. But the lessons from the dance are enormously important. Above all, the dance has shown both the political impotence and the moral fecklessness of President Khatami, because he first failed to get his people on the ballot, and then, once the Supreme Leader and the various theocratic institutions had slapped him down, he supinely obeyed and then had the cheek to call upon the people to turn out and vote, in support of "Iranian democracy." Maybe he'd been listening too much to Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, the other great philosopher of "Iranian democracy."

The other great lesson is that many Iranians, when pushed to the wall by the tyrants, do indeed have the courage to fight back. In an unprecedented step, more than 100 reformers issued a letter to Supreme Leader Khamenei, in which they used language more traditionally reserved for greater and lesser satans in Washington and Jerusalem. They surely know that punishment will be severe, but they did it anyway. One fine day such shows of courage will inspire the Iranian people to defend them en masse, fill the public spaces of the major cities with demonstrators, and demand an end to the regime. And one fine day such actions will compel the Bush administration to support the Iranian people. And on that day the regime will fall, and with it the keystone to the international terror network with which we are at war.

Meanwhile, the regime is placing terrorists in parliament. Loyal members of the security forces are now candidates in the upcoming elections from Teheran and other metropolitan center. For example, 30 candidates running under the banner of Abadegarane Irane Eslami (The Builders of an Islamic Iran) are members of the security forces and are being managed by the father-in-law of Khamenei's daughter Mr. Hadad Adel. For example:

1. Parviz Sorouri, a top Basij organizer in western Teheran. He is the editor-in-chief of Revolutionary Guard (Pasdaran) publications in Lebanon and Syria. A terrorist activist.

2. Said AbuTaleb, a member of the security apparatus and intelligence of Pasdaran. He was active in Iraq, posing as a television worker. He was arrested in Iraq and later released.

3. Hosseyn Fadai, one of the organizers of the army's branch known as the Badr forces. The Badr forces have undertaken terrorist activities in Iraq. A known terrorist, he is also a member of the group that oversees supplies for the armed forces.

4. Mehis Kouchakzad, responsible for organizing the safehouses for the terrorists in Karbala, a known terrorist.

5. Elias Naderan, the manager of legal matters regarding the Pasdaran in parliament.

6. Alireza Zaakni, responsible for the Basij at Teheran University and its presence in the student body, he oversees all Basij/student activities nationwide.

7. Emad Afrough, a member of the Governing Council of the Army and in charge of security and intelligence matters in the Guardian Council.

8. Seyyed Fezollah Moussavi, director of the Committee for the Defense of the Palestinian Nation and the head of the council overlooking the benefits of the Martyrs of the Intifada, a known terrorist group.

The chief of staff of the armed forces has cancelled all leaves for all military personnel starting Tuesday for one week. All soldiers have been commanded to cast their ballots in the elections on Friday, as have all members of the revolutionary guards and all air force personnel.

In other words, the regime is now removing the "reformist" mask from all Iranian institutions. Henceforth we will see Stalinist Shiites alone.

And we may see them with atomic bombs. Oddly, just as the foreign minister was announcing Iran's intention to sell enriched uranium to interested parties — thereby spitting in the eye of the French, German, and English diplomats who sang love songs to themselves just a few short months ago, proclaiming they had negotiated an end to the Iranian nuclear program — two smugglers were arrested in Iraq, near Mosul, with what an Iraqi general described as a barrel of uranium. Here is what General Hikmat Mahmoud Mohammed had to say about the event: "This material is in the category of weapons of mass destruction, which is why the investigation is secret. The two suspects were transferred to American forces, who are in charge of the inquiry."

Compulsive readers of these little essays may remember that, late last summer, I told CIA that I had been informed of a supply of enriched uranium in Iraq, some of which had been carried to Iran a few years ago. I had offered to put CIA in touch with the original couriers, who said they would take American inspectors to the site, but CIA could not be bothered to go look.

I am told that the uranium in the barrel near Mosul came from the same secret laboratory. Perhaps now the CIA will think better of my sources, and work harder to find these materials.

Faster, please.

http://www.nationalreview.com/ledeen/ledeen200402181614.asp

•The Islamic student councils of universities in many provinces boycotted the Friday elections. In its statement, the Kermanshah University's Islamic student council accused the Supreme Leader of dictatorship and President Khatami of ineptitude. The Islamic student council of the welfare and social work university called the next Majles illegitimate and denounced its legislations in advance as illegal. The Amir-Kabir University's Islamic student council said in its statement that its boycott of the elections was not just to protest against the mass disqualification of the reformist candidates, but also to protest against the power structure in the Islamic Republic. (Mehdi Khalaji)

•People turned out for street protests in the Kurdistan province cities of Bukan and Marivan. The people destroyed and closed the local campaign headquarters of the election candidates, but after two days, the police reopened them, a caller to the Radio Farda elections hotline says. The Kurdish people protest against the Guardians Council's ban on their candidates and demand fair and democratic elections, local writer and journalist Hasan Salasuran tells Radio Farda. (Bahman Bastani)

• Instead of well-known conservative parties, such as the association of the conservative clerics (Jam'eh-ye Rowhaniat-e Mobarez) and the hard-line right-wing party United Islamic Society (Jam'iat Mo'talefeh-ye Eslami), the conservatives campaign under a multitude of new parties and coalitions, emphasizing on the youth, Western education and professionalism of their candidates. On the other hand, the reformist camp toils on, wounded, and in disarray, campaigning for a list of only 26 candidates in Tehran, and a total of 220 across the country. (Keyvan Hosseini)

•In Tehran and major cities, more between 70 percent to 80 percent of the voters will stay away from the voting booths on Friday, but in provinces, where competitions are not political but ethnic or tribal, 60 percent to 70 percent are expected to vote, Tehran University political science professor and reformist commentator Sadeq Zibakalam says in today's RadioFarda Roundtable on the elections. However, due to their dismal record of the past four years, the reformist MPs would not have been elected, even if they were allowed to run, he adds. So, in a way, we can say that the Guardians Council did the Participation Front party and its allies a service by banning them from standing in the elections, he says. Certain devices may be used to make the voter turnout appear greater than it actually would be, warns member of the central committee of the association of Islamic student councils (Daftar-e Tahkim-e Vahdat) Amir Pakzad. The fact that the conservatives will try unlawful means to legitimize the elections shows that they have heard the people's voice, he adds. The voter turnout in the elections will be a vote on the Supreme Leader's absolute rule, Paris-based activist and former Majles MP Mehdi Salamatian says. The Friday elections will be a vote on the popularity of the clerical rule, and less than 80 percent or 90 percent turnout would be a blow to the clerical regime, he adds. It would mean a “no” to the political system in which one person makes all the decisions. As such, the elections will be a security issue, and for those involved in holding the elections and counting the votes, fabricating satisfactory numbers will become a religious duty, he adds. (Amir-Mosaddegh Katouzian)

•The low turnout can be considered as a vote against the clerical rule, Washington-based activist Amir-Hossein Ganjbakhsh tells Radio Farda. (Ali Sajjadi)

http://www.radiofarda.com/transcripts/topstory/2004/02/20040217_1830_0033_0250_EN.asp

Iranian Papers Shut on Eve of Elections

February 18, 2004
Reuters
Paul Hughes

TEHRAN -- Iran's hardline judiciary has shut two leading newspapers for publishing a letter criticizing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei over the exclusion of thousands of reformist candidates from Friday's elections.

Iran's Islamic conservatives appear set to recapture parliament amid widespread public indifference to what reformist President Mohammad Khatami has called an "unfair" parliamentary election.

Wednesday's final day of campaigning was overshadowed by a train disaster that killed about 300 people. Journalists said the liberal Sharq and Yas-e No dailies were sealed by order of the Tehran Prosecutor's Office. It was not immediately clear how long the ban, reflecting an increasingly conservative mood among the authorities, would last.

Campaigning for polls in the oil-producing nation of 66 million is prohibited on Thursday.

Issa Saharkhiz, a liberal journalist and former deputy culture minister, told Reuters the newspapers had been closed for failing to obey an order from the Supreme National Security Council banning publication of the letter to the supreme leader.

LIBERAL EXPERIMENT

The letter to Khamenei was sent by some 100 reformist legislators in protest at the disqualification by a hardline watchdog of more than 2,500 candidates for Friday's polls.

The scathing six-page epistle accused Khamenei of allowing his appointees to "violate the legitimate freedoms and rights of the people" in the name of Islam. Public criticism of Iran's absolute Islamic leader is a criminal offence.

Around 100 newspapers have been closed down in the past four years and many journalists and publishers have been jailed. Paris-based rights group Reporters Without Borders (RSF) said last year Iran had more journalists behind bars than any other country in the Middle East.

Friday's vote could stifle a seven-year experiment in political reform that brought greater freedom of speech and a relative relaxation of Islamic social and cultural restrictions rooted in the 1979 Islamic revolution.

The lackluster campaign paled in the face of disaster on its last day, Wednesday. A runaway train laden with fuel and fertilizers plowed off the rails in northeastern Iran and blew up, killing about 300 people.

The dead were mainly curious local residents, as well as firefighters who had rushed to the scene to douse an initial blaze before the wagons exploded.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=4388947

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