Posted on 03/08/2004 3:14:41 PM PST by Mini-14
MARCH 08, 2004 room, and probably the stupidest. I get to learn from the ultrasmart and creative folks I meet. So why do I have an uneasy feeling these days about the place, even as an economic recovery for the technology industry starts to gather steam? One factor abounds with irony. A few years ago, I wondered if the Valley was sowing the seeds of its demise by creating the communications and collaboration tools that would make it much less necessary to be there in a physical sense. The near-unanimous consensus at the time among the top people in the field was that the Valley had nothing to worry about. I never entirely bought their faith, though the Valley has repeatedly shown an ability to rebound to new heights after deep economic downturns. The recent evidence, notably the surge of offshoring, makes me ask again -- about the Valley and the entire nation. And I wonder if something is genuinely different now. Intel CEO Craig Barrett put his finger on it a few weeks ago when he stopped by my newspaper for a long chat with some reporters and editors. What's new this time, he told us in a persuasive way, is the nature of the global workforce. For the first time in human history, Barrett said, a truly gigantic pool of well-educated, technically adept and eager-to-please labor is being created. This pool of talent, which will include hundreds of millions of people in China and India (many of whom speak English fluently), has another characteristic: a willingness to work for a fraction of what Americans expect. This is not because they like living poorly. It's because local conditions and currency exchange rates make what would seem like a pauper's salary here a highly attractive one there. The U.S. largely came to grips with a similar crisis in low-end manufacturing. We moved up the value chain as a society, painful as this was for the less-educated, hardworking people who lost middle-class jobs and had to settle for lower-paid service employment. How high can we move on the value chain now? I travel widely. One thing I know for sure is that Silicon Valley and the U.S. have no monopoly on brains or energy. We do have an advantage in promoting a culture of risk, of entrepreneurialism. But other places are beginning to adopt even that value, too. The spectacle of politicians promoting trade wars in the name of stemming job losses is disturbing, if understandable. I wish they'd devote that energy to telling the harder truth: that the U.S. will need to buckle down in unprecedented ways, with vast new investments in education and infrastructure, plus a new commitment to the best aspects of entrepreneurialism. We may be facing big trouble in the near term, no matter what we do. That's the kind of news few politicians dare deliver. Barrett, running for no office, offered a hard truth. As he gave his litany of why conditions truly are different this time, we asked if this suggested a generation of lowered expectations in the U.S. "It's tough to come to another conclusion than that," he replied.
They will not get it. They - or their children - will be shot in the street. If not by an american partisan then by a Chinese soldier.
I really think one of the main drivers here is that baby boomers are now in senior management. We are talking about perhaps the most selfish and foolish generation is world history, certianly the in American history (I am a boomer BTW.) They are in for a shock or two when they find out that 1) The National state is not just an abstraction, and 2) there is more to the human than brute appetite. What a bunch of arrogant, blind fools.
That vision could be a plus if the 'offsourcing' debate could be shaped correctly:
1) Make Main Street America aware of US corporations love for outsourcing/offshoring Amreican jobs and the ruinous result for many families. If this is done then the...
2) Republicans take the lead with proposals [less onerous regs & taxes, tort reform, specilized 'trade school' type schools for many needed skills (forget the liberal arts degree), STOP transfering technology overseas, help me with more] to allow American corporations to remain competitive without resorting to offsourcing.
3) Make the political point you correctly made: The Dims answer is protectionism & unionize all American jobs, thereby rendering us utterly helpless VS the world labor market.
We'd have to survive the 04 elections and then have a go at such a course of action for the 06 & 08 elections.
...but more important the market needs to figure out the meaning of wealth for the next generation.
No, not wealth (I think we all know what that is) - how to create wealth. How to add value. What people want and will pay for. Hint - food is a good example.
A country that does not grow its own food can not be free. A country that cannot make its own goods and services cannot be free. A country that cannot create its own science and technology cannot be free.
And none of the things you have mentioned are "free," roughly or other wise-they are quite dear. What an absurd thing to say. Economies have three layers: Agriculture and commodities, manufacture and lastly services (of wich technology is a part.) Wealth is about creating value. Trade is about moving value around. We have not redefined wealth creation with each generation, we have merely made more efficient the different sectors. You cannot eat a computer chip. And with outsourcing you are not creating a new model for wealth, you are just strip mining the middle class in this country.It is trade, not wealth creation. When it is gone there will be nothing here, and beleive me these american companies will not get this vast Chinese market they are talking about. The Chinese will not allow it.
Reducing tax and regulatory costs would go a looong way to putting a comfortable life within more people's reach.
At some point China will realize it can't produce everything.
But as I say, they would all follow us in a heartbeat, and if they do not slap a tariff on them. Raise our technology so high in this country that it out paces them. For instance, finally tackle software automation. Of course it is feasible. Just stop using economic policy to implement foreign policy and see economic policy as part of national security policy. What are they going to do, bleed out their own national economies to China? they all have export driven economies, and heavily protected ones at that. China and India will not let them into their markets unless there is tech transfer, and CHina will never let anyone but Chinese companies get that "vast Chinese market," they are just kidding themselves. Let the rest of the G7 bleed themselves dry. We will puzh ahead in tech ourselves and by the time china and India have sucked the G7 dry we will be decades beyond the Chinese. The trick here is to understand that Tech in not an industry in and of its selve but a supporting service. This is one reason that Bush's DOE and NASA strategies are actually pretty sound, thought I do not think that he sees things as I do.
I can't dismiss as insignificant the cumulative top-heavy salaries and stock options and expence accounts, etc. for corporate America's ruling class:
CEOs, CFOs: 9 and 8 figure "salaries" + options/perks
Gaggles of board members and the like: 8 and 7 figure salaries + options/perks
Hoards of lesser corporate baggage, markerters, lawyers by the millions: 7 figure salaries + options/perks
God only know how many 6 figure salaries + options/perks
All manner of other wasteful spending and pocket lining
And that's just the legal stuff, add in $billions more for Enron, Tyco, Global Crossing and their crooked accounting firms.....this happens in thousands of American corporations to one extent ot another.
ALL ADDING to the "cost" of the American business' competing against the world market. This is a staggering burden for a free market system to bear. I agree with the top people being well paid but too much is too much.
You must be kidding. Indefensible on so many levels. You don't konw me, how could you say such a thing? Ha! I was a software developer for at least 22 years. At the end a lot of unix gui work (motif/Xt/X11 if you will). Big companies and small companies. I have a clue about software. I don't think you have a clue about wealth creation.
Keep leadship of technology and science and ,ake the, move here if they want to be on the edge. outsourving and tech transfer is suicide.
Science and Technology depend on really smart, passionate people, educated at the best universities. At least for now, the U.S. has the best grad & post-grad programs. Also, scientists seem to be kind of a-political, if you will. More interested in that whole truth thing. I believe if there's one area that the freakin' "governments" of the world haven't figured out yet, is how to contain scientists. Where can you make the most money (and fame) with your idea - the U.S. (or Sweden, Japan, India) or China?
Why does it matter if Phd's are from America or not - they work for the highest bidder. Corporations don't care where the talent comes from.
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