Iranian Alert -- March 14, 2004 [In Iran]-- IRAN LIVE THREAD --Americans for Regime Change in Iran

The US media almost entirely ignores news regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran. As Tony Snow of the Fox News Network has put it, “this is probably the most under-reported news story of the year.” But most American’s are unaware that the Islamic Republic of Iran is NOT supported by the masses of Iranians today. Modern Iranians are among the most pro-American in the Middle East.

There is a popular revolt against the Iranian regime brewing in Iran today. Starting June 10th of this year, Iranians have begun taking to the streets to express their desire for a regime change. Most want to replace the regime with a secular democracy. Many even want the US to over throw their government.

The regime is working hard to keep the news about the protest movement in Iran from being reported. Unfortunately, the regime has successfully prohibited western news reporters from covering the demonstrations. The voices of discontent within Iran are sometime murdered, more often imprisoned. Still the people continue to take to the streets to demonstrate against the regime.

In support of this revolt, Iranians in America have been broadcasting news stories by satellite into Iran. This 21st century news link has greatly encouraged these protests. The regime has been attempting to jam the signals, and locate the satellite dishes. Still the people violate the law and listen to these broadcasts. Iranians also use the Internet and the regime attempts to block their access to news against the regime. In spite of this, many Iranians inside of Iran read these posts daily to keep informed of the events in their own country.

This daily thread contains nearly all of the English news reports on Iran. It is thorough. If you follow this thread you will witness, I believe, the transformation of a nation. This daily thread provides a central place where those interested in the events in Iran can find the best news and commentary. The news stories and commentary will from time to time include material from the regime itself. But if you read the post you will discover for yourself, the real story of what is occurring in Iran and its effects on the war on terror.

I am not of Iranian heritage. I am an American committed to supporting the efforts of those in Iran seeking to replace their government with a secular democracy. I am in contact with leaders of the Iranian community here in the United States and in Iran itself.

If you read the daily posts you will gain a better understanding of the US war on terrorism, the Middle East and why we need to support a change of regime in Iran. Feel free to ask your questions and post news stories you discover in the weeks to come.

If all goes well Iran will be free soon and I am convinced become a major ally in the war on terrorism. The regime will fall. Iran will be free. It is just a matter of time.

Showdown Looms as Iran Bars Nuclear Inspections

March 13, 2004
The Guardian
Ian Traynor

International concern about Iran's suspect nuclear projects deepened last night when Tehran barred the International Atomic Energy Agency's nuclear inspectors.

It told the IAEA that its inspectors could not return to resume their search for evidence for at least six weeks.

Tehran's allies at the IAEA board meeting in Vienna yesterday blocked a tough resolution on Iran supported by the US and Europe.

The sudden intensification of the crisis appeared to pave the way for a showdown by the next IAEA board meeting in June.

"Iran has raised the ante," said a diplomat following the meeting. "There's some consternation."

The Americans and the Europeans, despite deep differences over how to respond to the Iranians, agreed a compromise formula on Wednesday which demands "immediate", "proactive" and "urgent" cooperation from Tehran on the nuclear inspections.

Iran's decision to cancel the inspections for a month flies in the face of such demands. The US-European compromise wording, however, has run up against stiff resistance from the Russians and the 13 of the 35 board members from the Non-Aligned Movement.

Meetings were continuing behind closed doors late last night and the board is to resume this morning, a highly unusual scenario.

Mohammed ElBaradei, the IAEA chief, is to travel to Washington tomorrow to discuss with President George Bush how to tackle the Iranian issue and the black market in nuclear technology recently revealed to be centred in Pakistan.

It remained unclear how the developing drama in Vienna would affect Dr ElBaradei's trip to Washington. Diplomats said the Iranian postponement of the UN inspections was an attempt to "put pressure" on the IAEA and an example of Iranian "posturing".

Europe and the US have been seeking to get the Iranians to dismantle their uranium enrichment programmes since Iran was found last year to have been operating a secret enrichment project for 18 years, the key to obtaining nuclear bomb-grade material.

The US-European compromise agreed on Wednesday put off until June a decision on how to respond to Iran's breaches of its international nuclear commitments.

The resolution "deplores" Iranian failures to report fully its nuclear activities to the IAEA and singles out the Iranian military for the first time as being heavily involved in Iran's nuclear programmes.

The Iranians reacted furiously earlier this week to a tougher-than-expected response to the long-running nuclear row.

Diplomats characterised the furious response as predictable brinkmanship. But the decision to delay UN inspections was seen as much more serious.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,1168650,00.html

Iran: Unemployment Becoming A 'National Threat'

March 12, 2004
Radio Free Europe
Golnaz Esfandiari

According to official estimates, some 3.5 million working-age Iranians are currently unemployed. The jobless rate is particularly high among the women and youth of the Islamic Republic. Authorities are calling unemployment a national threat and one of the country's most pressing priorities.

Prague -- Ali, a 24-year-old Iranian, has spent the past four years looking for work. He has a high-school degree and is qualified to work as a make-up artist, but has never been able to find work suited to his interests.

A month ago, he finally relented and accepted a job as a taxi driver. It was, he says, his last choice.

"In fact I [had] to look for a job to make a living even if it is in no way connected to my interests and expertise. The main thing which is clear to everyone in Iran is that is that there are no jobs. There are very few job opportunities and when there is one, there are so many applicants that you can get that job only if you're lucky enough or you have good contacts. For every job opportunity, there are hundreds of applicants," he says.

"I don't think things will get better. I mean, considering how things are moving here, I would say this is it."Iran's official unemployment rate is about 13 percent. But economists estimate the real figure is more than 20 percent.

According to official estimates, unemployment is especially rife among Iran's youth and women, where jobless rates can soar as high as 30 percent.

The rise in unemployment comes as more and more young women are pursuing university degrees, despite the lack of jobs. The Planning and Policy Affairs Ministry says the female unemployment rate is twice that of men.

Economists say Iran will have to create more than a million new jobs every year in order to accommodate its young population. But only about 300,000 new jobs are created each year, leaving the country's youth frustrated and disillusioned.

Observers say the rising unemployment rate is behind many of Iran's emerging social ills, such as drug addiction. There are currently more than 2 million drug addicts in the country. Young people like Ali say unemployment is also causing deep rifts in family relationships.

"I've noticed that no matter how open-minded and intellectual [the parents] are, and no matter how much understanding they have for their children, they come to the point where they have only one question for their children and that is 'Why don't you work?'" Ali said.

Ali Rashidi is a leading economist based in Tehran. He says the roots of Iran's unemployment crisis date back to the early 1980s and the country's policies following the start of the Iran-Iraq War.

"[Iran] wanted to have an army of 20 million. And as a result, they encouraged pregnancy and the rate of population increased from something like 1.7 to 4, 4.5. As a result, the population of Iran has doubled during the last 25 years. So this increasing population is far from what the economy can absorb, and at the same time the policies that have been followed since the end of the war have nothing to propose in terms of absorbing this extra population," Rashidi said.

Furthermore, he says, Iran's investments in industry and agriculture have not been planned to produce the greatest number of jobs possible.

"In other words, the industrial policy has been concentrated in industries absorbing a lot of capital with little labor. For example, you spend a lot of money for steel production or the metallurgy industry and the rate of employment does not go as far as the capital is concerned. So the policy in industry, agriculture has not been conducive to absorb this extra population," Rashidi said.

Rashidi says that most new jobs are being created in the private sector or on the grey market, and therefore do not contribute to reducing overall unemployment rates or raising production rates.

Most of Iran's jobless population is classified as unskilled labor with a high school education or lower. But unemployment is also growing among university graduates, pushing many of them to seek opportunities abroad. According to the International Monetary Fund, Iran has the world's highest rate of brain drain.

Iranian officials have also expressed concern about the growing rate of joblessness among physicians. Nearly 10,000 doctors in Iran are currently unemployed.

Unemployment is also a major problem for educated young Iranians who cannot find suitable jobs in line with their level of education.

Economists say in order to tackle the growing unemployment rate, Iran should push through economic reforms that will increase production and investment.

"We have to revitalize the economy by changing the planning system, the decision makers, and also the sectors of the economy which could produce more productive jobs rather than relying on the service sector or illegal, black market, and things of that sort," Rashidi said.

Meanwhile, 24-year-old Ali says there is little hope among Iran's youth that things are likely to improve anytime soon.

"We all know that we live our life day by day, always hoping that things will get better on their own. I don't think things will get better. I mean, considering how things are moving here, I would say this is it. Many things will never change but humans always keep hoping," Ali said.

The International Labor Organization in a recent report urged countries to tackle youth unemployment in order to avoid what it called "the creation of a huge cadre of frustrated, uneducated or unemployable young people that could have a devastating impact on long-term development prospects."

http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2004/3/A9C57806-F880-499F-B309-3D13EB5FEF1C.html

Iran Plans Nuclear Bomb in 2005

March 13, 2004
Middle East Newsline
MENL

LONDON -- An Iranian exile group asserts that Teheran has set a deadline for 2005 to achieve nuclear weapons capability.

The National Council of Resistance of Iran said the regime of Ali Khamenei decided to resume uranium enrichment at undisclosed facilities as part of an accelerated effort to achieve nuclear weapons capability. The council said the decision was taken at a recent session of the Iranian leadership after meetings by Iranian National Security Adviser Hassan Rowhani with the International Atomic Energy in October 2003.

Alireza Jafarzadeh, a leading council member, said the meeting of the Iranian leadership took place in early 2004 after the exposure of the Pakistan network of Abdul Qadeer Khan. The network was said to have provided technology, blueprints and components for the nuclear programs of Iran, Libya and North Korea.

Quoting sources inside Iran, Jafarzadeh asserted that the Teheran regime prepared a series of secret facilities that have continued with uranium enrichment. These facilities were prepared after the IAEA sought to inspect such facilities as Arak, which contains a heavy-water plant, and Natanz, where hundreds of centrifuges were housed. Both facilities were disclosed by the council in 2002.

http://www.menewsline.com/stories/2004/march/03_14_2.html

U.S. Announces Tighter Iraq-Iran Border Controls

March 13, 2004
Reuters
The New York Times

BAGHDAD -- The U.S.-led authority in Iraq said on Saturday it would introduce a new border policy to try to keep out foreign insurgents, including closing all but three of the 19 official crossing points from Iran.

The number of border officials will be doubled and all visitors to Iraq will be given a temporary permit and have their details registered on a computer system, it said.

U.S. officials say there is an increasing threat from foreign fighters in Iraq, who they believe are behind some of the major bombings of recent months.

When attacks on Shi'ites taking part in Ashura mourning ceremonies earlier this month killed more than 180 people, Iraqi religious leaders criticized Washington for not doing enough to police borders and protect the country it is occupying.

On Saturday the U.S. administrator in Iraq, Paul Bremer, issued a statement saying measures to increase border security would be accelerated.

``Foreign terrorists are present in Iraq,'' Bremer said. ``The numbers are not known with precision, but recent attacks and their continuing presence underscores the importance of improving security at Iraq's borders.

``That is why we are accelerating border security efforts... We will monitor, limit and control the number of people crossing into Iraq from other nations.''

U.S. military officials, however, say that while foreign fighters may be involved in some of the larger attacks in Iraq, the majority of insurgents are Iraqi.

Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt said that only about 150 of roughly 10,000 people now being held by the coalition as potential security threats held foreign passports.

There are 27 ports of entry along Iraq's 2,270 miles of borders, 19 of those along the vast 900-mile frontier with Iran, according to Dan Senor, Bremer's spokesman. Within a week, only three Iraq-Iran crossings will remain open, he said.

BORDERS REMAIN POROUS

The sheer length of Iraq's borders and the desert and mountain terrain they cross mean that however few official crossing points there are, the frontier will always remain porous to those determined to cross without scrutiny.

Senor said neighboring countries must do more to stop the flow of ``undesirables'' across the borders and said an Iraqi delegation had gone to Tehran to discuss the problem. After Iran, the next priority would be the border with Syria.

``Our experience thus far is that border controls have been tight along some of the other borders -- Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Turkey,'' Senor told a news conference in Baghdad.

``We have recognized a lot of problems along the Iranian border, and problems along the Syria borders. But (the new policy) will apply to all of Iraq's borders.''

The number of border personnel will be doubled within a year from about 8,000 now. All visitors arriving in Iraq by land will need to present a passport, fill in an entry form, be issued a temporary entry permit, and be entered into a computer system. Visa fees and requirements are still being finalized.

Special arrangements will be made for larger movements of people wanting to come to Iraq for religious ceremonies.

Thousands of Iranian pilgrims crossed into Iraq for the Ashura ceremony, many without official papers. But officials said the new policy and the initial focus on Iran did not suggest Iranians were thought to be behind the Ashura bombings.

``There is no intelligence I am aware of that links the bombings in Kerbala and Baghdad to any Iranian that we currently have in custody,'' Kimmitt said.

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/international/international-iraq-borders.html

The Text of the IAEA Resolution on Iran

March 13, 2004
The Associated Press
620KTAR

The text of the Iran resolution agreed on Saturday by the 35-nation board of governors' meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency:
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Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran Resolution adopted by the Board on 13 March 2004 The Board of Governors,

(a) Recalling the resolutions adopted by the Board on 26 November 2003, and on 12 September 2003 and the statement by the Board of 19 June 2003,

(b) Noting with appreciation the Director General's report of 24 February 2004, on the implementation of safeguards in Iran,

(c) Commending the Director General and the Secretariat for their continuing efforts to implement the Safeguards Agreement with Iran and to resolve all outstanding issues in Iran,

(d) Noting with satisfaction that Iran signed the Additional Protocol on 18 December 2003 and that, in its communication to the Director General of 10 November 2003, Iran committed itself to acting in accordance with the provisions of the Protocol with effect from that date; but also noting that the Protocol has not yet been ratified as called for in the Board's resolutions of 26 November 2003 and 12 September 2003,

(e) Noting the decision by Iran of 24 February 2004 to extend the scope of its suspension of enrichment-related and reprocessing activities, and its confirmation that the suspension applied to all facilities in Iran,

(f) Noting with serious concern that the declarations made by Iran in October 2003 did not amount to the complete and final picture of Iran's past and present nuclear program considered essential by the Boards November 2003 resolution, in that the Agency has since uncovered a number of omissions _ e.g., a more advanced centrifuge design than previously declared, including associated research, manufacturing and testing activities; two mass spectrometers used in the laser enrichment program; and designs for the construction of hot cells at the Arak heavy water research reactor _ which require further investigation, not least as they may point to nuclear activities not so far acknowledged by Iran,

(g) Noting with equal concern that Iran has not resolved all questions regarding the development of its enrichment technology to its current extent, and that a number of other questions remain unresolved, including the sources of all HEU contamination in Iran; the location, extent, and nature of work undertaken on the basis of the advanced centrifuge design; the nature, extent and purpose of activities involving the planned heavy-water reactor; and evidence to support claims regarding the purpose of polonium-210 experiments, and

(h) Noting with concern, also in light of the Director Generals report of 20 February 2004, that, although the timelines are different, Iran's and Libya's conversion and centrifuge programs share several common elements, including technology largely obtained from the same foreign sources,

1. Recognizes that the Director General reports Iran to have been actively cooperating with the Agency in providing access to locations requested by the Agency, but, as Iran's cooperation so far has fallen short of what is required, calls on Iran to continue and intensify its cooperation, in particular through the prompt and proactive provision of detailed and accurate information on every aspect of Iran's past and present nuclear activities;

2. Welcomes Iran's signature of the Additional Protocol; urges its prompt ratification; underlines the Board's understanding that, in its communication to the Director General of 10 November 2003, Iran voluntarily committed itself to acting in accordance with the provisions of the Protocol with effect from that date; and stresses the importance of Iran complying with the deadline for declarations envisaged in Article 3 of the Protocol;

3. Recalls that in its resolutions of 26 November 2003 and 12 September 2003 the Board called on Iran to suspend all enrichment-related and reprocessing activities, notes that Iran's voluntary decisions of 29 December 2003 and 24 February 2004 constitute useful steps in this respect, calls on Iran to extend the application of this commitment to all such activities throughout Iran, and requests the Director General to verify the full implementation of these steps;

4. Deplores that Iran, as detailed in the report by the Director General, omitted any reference, in its letter of 21 October 2003 which was to have provided the "full scope of Iranian nuclear activities" and a "complete centrifuge R&D chronology", to its possession of P-2 centrifuge design drawings and to associated research, manufacturing, and mechanical testing activities _ which the Director General describes as "a matter of serious concern, particularly in view of the importance and sensitivity of those activities";

5. Echoes the concern expressed by the Director General over the issue of the purpose of Iran's activities related to experiments on the production and intended use of polonium-210, in the absence of information to support Iran's statements in this regard;

6. Calls on Iran to be pro-active in taking all necessary steps on an urgent basis to resolve all outstanding issues, including the issue of LEU and HEU contamination at the Kalaye Electric Company workshop and Natanz; the issue of the nature and scope of Iran's laser isotope enrichment research; and the issue of the experiments on the production of polonium-210;

7. Notes with appreciation that the Agency is investigating the supply routes and sources of technology and related equipment, and nuclear and non-nuclear materials, found in Iran, and reiterates that the urgent, full and close cooperation with the Agency of all third countries is essential in the clarification of outstanding questions concerning Iran's nuclear program, including the acquisition of nuclear technology from foreign sources; and also appreciates any cooperation in this regard as may already have been extended to the Agency;

8. Requests the Director General to report on these issues before the end of May, as well as on the implementation of this and prior resolutions on Iran, for consideration by the June Board of Governors _ or to report earlier if appropriate;

9. Decides to defer until its June meeting, and after receipt of the report of the Director General referred to above, consideration of progress in verifying Iran's declarations, and of how to respond to the above-mentioned omissions; and

10. Decides to remain seized of the matter.
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