Pakistan says militants must surrender, or die

Reuters | 3/20/04 | Hafiz Wazir

[kattracks]

WANA, Pakistan, March 20 (Reuters) - Pakistani forces rained fire on Saturday on besieged foreign militants and Pakistani tribal allies thought to be sheltering Osama bin Laden's deputy near the Afghan border.

The 300 to 400 al Qaeda fighters and Pakistani tribesman holding out in well-fortified mud-brick compounds in Pakistan's wild South Warizistan tribal area were pounded with shells and mortar bombs throughout the night.

The Pakistani military says the militants are surrounded and face only two choices -- surrender or die.

"They cannot escape... Either they surrender or they get eliminated," military spokesman Major-General Shaukat Sultan told CNN.

Pakistani forces say the fierce defence the militants have mounted since the battle began on Tuesday suggested they were trying to protect a "high-value target", possibly Osama bin Laden's deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri.

No officials has confirmed he is among those encircled.

"There was no pause in the firing," a resident of the town of Wana, to the east of the battle, said just after dawn. "Our houses were shaking."

Bursts of small-arms fire erupted at first light, indicating stiff resistance from the militants on a fifth day of fighting.

Zawahri, an Egyptian doctor, is regarded as the brains of al Qaeda. He is thought to be one of the key figures behind the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States.

The capture of one of the world's most wanted men would be a major coup for the United States, under fire over its rationale for the war in Iraq. Saturday is the first anniversary of the start of that conflict.

Western intelligence sources say Zawahri and bin Laden are believed to be close to each other, somewhere in Pakistan's often lawless and largely autonomous tribal lands.

Pakistani officials have said bin Laden is not believed to be among the besieged fighters.

The militants have no way of replenishing their ammunition, Pakistani officials have said. Sultan said he expected the battle to be over soon.

"HAMMER AND ANVIL"

The offensive, involving several thousand soldiers, is the biggest Pakistan has fought since it joined the U.S.-led war on terror after the September 11 attacks.

About a dozen Americans are giving technical assistance in intelligence gathering but no U.S. ground troops are involved, the military said.

Across the border in Afghanistan, U.S.-led forces have launched a spring push against the resurgent Taliban militia and their al Qaeda allies. The Pentagon is calling the twin offensives on either side of the rugged border a "hammer and anvil" operation.

About 30 Pakistani soldiers have been killed, officials in the area say, although the military has declined to give details of casualties.

The number of militants killed was not known although military officials said 24, including some foreigners, were killed on the first day of the battle on Tuesday.

Hundreds of villagers left the area after the Pakistani military urged them to move to safety.

"People in Wana are sharing their houses and food with those who've fled the troubled areas," the Wana resident said. "We have friends and relatives here."

"Many people are fed up with all this. They want peace."

The FBI lists Zawahri among its "Most Wanted Terrorists" with a bounty of $25 million on his head. He has been indicted in the United States for his alleged role in the August 1998 bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.

[Angelus Errare]

One other thing to keep in mind is that we still don't know whether or not it is al-Zawahiri or not down there, media hype aside. The NYT today says the fighters are being led by an IMU (Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan) supremo and it's entirely conceiveable that he and not al-Zawahiri was the HVT to begin with. Until we get some kind of confirmation that he is indeed there (as opposed to laughing his ass off from miles away), the US isn't going to carpet bomb the area.

Another factor, as I said, is the hostages and the Pakistani fifth column. The ex-ISI chief is plotting a coup against Musharraf with the MMA to replace him with Abdul Qadeer Khan and hundreds of dead women and children would be just the thing they need to kick off a full-scale civil war.

In short, it's an extremely delicate situation and we're handling it as such.

[thedugal]

Pakistan says militants must surrender, or die

And in other news, John Kerry says militants must surrender, or spend awhile in jail.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Wana is about the center of this map:

click here

On the left you can zoom in and move around on the compass arrangement you will see. Zooming in doesn't work well it seems to me.

[Paleo Conservative]

Then kill them all hopefully inflicting as much pain as possible.

[CurlyDave]

I will take all of this with a whole pound of salt until we/they have someone actually in the bag.

The Pakistani army has too many Taliban and militant sympathizers for me to believe anyplace is "escape-proof". A few men look the other way at night and --poof--the target is gone.

[Cap Huff]

Here's an opinion piece I just caught on Jang that mentions several possibilities:

Where is Dr Ayman al-Zawahri?

http://jang.com.pk/thenews/

By Rahimullah Yusufzai

PESHAWAR: Is Dr Ayman al-Zawahri really holed up in the besieged Azam Warsak area in South Waziristan?
Or has there been a miscalculation on the part of the military commanders who felt the fierce resistance being put up by the militants was primarily aimed at protecting a high-value al-Qaeda target?

President General Pervez Musharraf’s comment on the issue during the CNN interview not only fuelled speculation as to the identity of the high-value al-Qaeda target but also raised expectations with regard to the success of the ongoing military campaign in South Waziristan.

Despite the subsequent explanations by government spokesmen that the president didn’t mention Dr al-Zawahri’s name, the international media is now focused on only one question and that is the fate of the Egyptian surgeon who is now effectively the al-Qaeda number two.

The government should prepare itself for a round of media criticism if Dr al-Zawahri isn’t found alive or dead. There would be criticism that Dr al-Zawahri was able to slip out of the supposedly tight military cordon. The government would also attract flak for misleading the world by claiming that somebody important in al-Qaeda could be hiding in the targeted area.

The US would feel justified in demanding of the government to let its troops enter the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) due to the inability of the Pakistani troops to nab the wanted men.

It would be wrong to rule out the presence of Dr al-Zawahri in South Waziristan, or indeed in some other place in Pakistan. Most al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders and commanders tried to escape to Pakistan after the fall of Taliban regime in Afghanistan and many of them managed to do so.

It is possible that Dr al-Zawahri, or even Osama bin Laden, spent time in South Waziristan at one stage. But common sense demands that they would try and move out of a place that in recent months has become the focus of an intense hunt for them. If they are still there, it only shows that they don’t have many other safe places to hide and are unable also to take the risk of moving elsewhere.

One would like to believe that the president and his military commanders haven’t based their assessment about the presence of the high-value al-Qaeda target in the area only on the basis of the fierce resistance being put up by the militants. Though military spokesman Maj Gen Shaukat Sultan made it clear that the assessment wasn’t based on any information gleaned from captured militants, it is possible that the US and Pakistani army commanders are in possession of intercepts and leads that points to the possible presence of Dr al-Zawahri in the mountains of South Waziristan.

Otherwise, those who know the al-Qaeda fighters, or are aware of the fighting skills and determination of Chechens, Uzbekistanis and Pashtuns, won’t be surprised a bit by the spirited fight being put up by the outnumbered and outgunned men holding out in the villages around Azam Warsak. They never surrender and are willing to die for their cause. They would put up a strong resistance with or without Dr al-Zawahri.

Also there was an assumption that bin Laden and Dr al-Zawahri would stick together as they have done all these years. If they are now separated and Dr al-Zawahri is holed up alone in South Waziristan, there could be two explanations for this. One, that the two have decided to stay separately so that one is able to survive and run al-Qaeda in case the other is killed or captured. Two, that bin Laden is long dead and that is why Dr al-Zawahri is alone rather than in the company of his al-Qaeda boss.

We also have to keep in mind that there are fewer Arabs among those resisting the Pakistan Army compared to the Uzbekistanis, Chechens and Pakistani tribesmen. The Arabs are the real al-Qaeda and the followers of bin Laden and Dr al-Zawahri. They would surely fight to protect their two al-Qaeda leaders. For the Uzbekistanis and Chechens and Pakistani Pashtun tribesmen, association with al-Qaeda would be far less important than the urge to help the homeless Arabs.

The Uzbekistani Islamists would be more inclined to protect their leader Tahir Yuldesh, head of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan who too is believed to be hiding in the border areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan. For the Chechens, it would be absolutely essential to protect their commander, Daniar, who too is reportedly holed up in the tribal borderland of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

And for the Pakistani tribesmen who are part of this group, it would be much more relevant to protect Nek Mohammad, Sharif Khan, Nur Islam, Maulvi Abbas and Maulvi Aziz, five of the most wanted men in South Waziristan. It is possible that Tahir Yuldesh, commander Daniar and Nek Mohammad and his four colleagues are the high-value targets now holding out in South Waziristan.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

fyi

[Cap Huff]

Yes, I also skimmed that Borchgrave article that talked about the plot involving Khan.

[ambrose]

Pakistan says militants must surrender, or die

You know what my vote is...

[Cap Huff]

There's some interesting things here. I know some of you have already been pinged here, but have a look if you have time.

[Angelus Errare]

Interesting stuff from Jang.

Hamid Gul's plan is the one that really worries me - that SOB has dirt on just about everybody in the Pakistani political system from his years as the head of the ISI. He also has a solid following among the serving ISI and could easily assassinate Musharraf. While Gul and Musharraf allegedly have an understanding that it won't come to that, a better description would be that Musharraf is afraid of Gul - and with good reason.

So if al-Zawahiri is captured we had better get him out of their fast - too many chances for a "daring escape" there. And Khan, needless to say, hates the US for shutting down his main source of revenue.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Good catch. So maybe AZ is not there.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Well I think I need to call it a night!

Will check back tomorrow.

[gorebegone]

Here it is!

[Cap Huff]

Interesting map. Thanks!

[EaglesUpForever]

> And in other news, John Kerry says militants
> must surrender, or spend awhile in jail.

Well, sort of... when he said "militants" he was talking about the US military.

[ApplegateRanch]

Sounds as if the Pakistanis didn't bring in the heavy artillery, or else they aren't using it. When hundreds are surrounded by thousands, and the hundreds are guerrilla/terrorists and the thousands are government army, one wouldn't think it would have lasted this long.

The Pakistanis are being careful to avoid criticism. There was a report earlier today that they could see the fighters using women and children as the usual shields.

Supposedly there are also 18 captured Pakistani troops they think are still alive being held in there.

What I boogle at is the use of "heavily fortified" and "mud compounds" in the same breath. Seems like it should be piles of dust by now. I'll bet the defenders no longer have an trouble finding "three stones for istijmar" now.

(http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1101775/posts)

[ApplegateRanch]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1100853/posts

THIS is the one I meant. Sorry.

[Boot Hill]

"I am not the geography expert around here, but I believe that the fighting is taking place about ten miles [west] from Wana."

You are correct, the story is wrong.

All the places mentioned to date, are between 5 and 20 miles southwest of Wana. If you'll notice, no reporter that we've read so far is actually reporting this stuff from first hand observation. I believe that the Paki government is keeping ALL reporters out of the area for fear that they'll recognize U.S. assets and report on them. That would be a disaster for our pal Mushi.

I suspect that the interviews for this report were done from government briefing or by telephone calls to personal contacts in Wana. Compounding the problem of these telephone conversations, the language spoken in Wana is Pashto and the language of Islamabad based reporters would be Punjabi or Urdu. Translation errors (e.g., is the action to the east of Wana or is Wana to the east of the action) can be expected to be common.

IMPORTANT NOTICE...

I'm putting together a special thread of maps and place names, etc., to be used as a Wana campaign reference, that will be posted this weekend.

PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE, if you have any place names you'd like to see included, pleases post or FReepmail them to me.

Thanks for the help, guys.

--Boot Hill

[DugwayDuke]

What's your rush? There are many reasons to take one's time in a situation like this. The rebels are limited to the ammunition they have on hand, they cannot be resupplied. They will run out sooner or later. There is simply no reason to be waste the blood of your troops in un-necessary front attacks when artillery and time is on your side. There may be hostages too.