Fermi's Paradox
Oh, this article is seriously lacking in logic 101. Where to begin?
Let's start with the first "conclusion" in paragraph 2:
Fermi realized that any civilization with a modest amount of rocket technology and an immodest amount of imperial incentive could rapidly colonize the entire Galaxy. Within a few million years, every star system could be brought under the wing of empire. A few million years may sound long, but in fact it's quite short compared with the age of the Galaxy, which is roughly ten thousand million years. Colonization of the Milky Way should be a quick exercise.
Wow, what a conclusion! Even "modest rocket technology" will allow rapid conquest and colonization of the galaxy? I don't think this article's author has a clue about the size of the galaxy or the nature of rocket travel. If this is, in fact, the thumbnail sketch of Fermi's Paradox then I have some severe reservations about the legend that has grown up around Fermi as a genius of the first order. Somehow I blame the author.
So what Fermi immediately realized was that the aliens have had more than enough time to pepper the Galaxy with their presence. But looking around, he didn't see any clear indication that they're out and about. This prompted Fermi to ask what was (to him) an obvious question: "where is everybody?"
OK, you buy the premise, you buy the bit. But what overwhelming hubris would lead one to assume that we had seen all of the available evidence? According to this article Fermi's paradox came from a casual comment by Fermi in the 1940s (according to Space.COM the lunchtime conversation was in 1950). Radio astronomy only came into existence in 1931 with the Bell Labs work of Karl Jansky. Oh yeah. We've heard everything and seen everything there is to see in less than 20 years. Even in the radio spectrum. The scientific method at its best!
Also, if one considers the amount of time the Galaxy has been around (over 10 billion years) and the speed of technological advancement in our own culture, then a more relevant point is where are all the super-advanced alien civilizations.
Building on a flawed premise. What makes us think we can detect an advanced civilization, given our "bang the rocks together" level of technology?
Russian astrophysicist Nikolai Kardashev proposed a useful scheme to classify advanced civilizations, he argues that ET would posses one of three levels of technology. A Type I civilization is similar to our own, one that uses the energy resources of a planet. A Type II civilization would use the energy resources of a star, such as a Dyson sphere. A Type III civilization would employ the energy resources of an entire galaxy. A Type III civilization would be easy to detect, even at vast distances.
Freeman Dyson (of Dyson Sphere fame) suggested that we start looking for evidence of such advanced civilizations by looking for the telltale signs of Dyson Spheres (radiation in the infrared as leakage / waste from a Dyson Sphere where gravity evidence says there should be a star) . Somehow I don't think we're spending too much time on that particular search, given that we haven't even covered 15% of the radio sources in our sky in the "conventional" SETI search (which is woefully under funded at the present time).
This sounds a bit silly at first. The fact that aliens don't seem to be walking our planet apparently implies that there are no extraterrestrial anywhere among the vast tracts of the Galaxy. Many researchers consider this to be a radical conclusion to draw from such a simple observation. Surely there is a straightforward explanation for what has become known as the Fermi Paradox. There must be some way to account for our apparent loneliness in a galaxy that we assume is filled with other clever beings.
Well duh! Simple postulate in all of science: "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence." My whole argument with this article is that they are violating this inviolable law. Do they think that by stating the obvious they dismiss it without any cogent arguments?
Bracewell-Von Neumann Probes:
Machines! That's the proof we need! Machines! It's obvious that's what we should be looking for!
One word response. Viruses. We don't understand viruses, so for all we know they are the Bracewell-Von Neumann probes. Nuff said.
Attached to a basic propulsion system, such as a Bussard RamJet (shown above), such a probe could travel between the stars at a very slow pace. When it reaches a target system, it finds suitable material (like asteroids) and makes copies of itself. Growth of the number of probes would occur exponentially and the Galaxy could be explored in 4 million years. While this time span seems long compared to the age of human civilization, remember the Galaxy is over 10 billion years old and any past extraterrestrial civilization could have explored the Galaxy 250 times over.
Nothing could possibly go wrong with the probe or the GALAXY in the meantime. Of course not! It's easy to explore the galaxy. 250 times over!
Thus, the question arises, if it so easy to build Bracewell-Von Neumann probes, and they has been so much time in the past, where are the aliens or at least evidence of their past explorations (old probes). So Fermi Paradox becomes not only where are They, but why can we not hear Them and where are their Bracewell-von Neumann probes?
Where are their probes, you ask? Checking out some part of the galaxy a bit more interesting, perhaps? I mean, once you get past our own self importance, that is.
Possible solutions to Fermi's Paradox fall in the following categories:
Oh goody. This author has identified all of the possible solutions! Let's pay attention!
They Are Here
- They Were Here and They Left Evidence
- UFO's, Ancient Astronauts, Alien Artifacts: all fall under the heading of proposals that aliens are here now (and they call themselves Republicans) or have been here in the recent past. Problem: evidence for aliens is non-existent. (Oh really? We've found all the evidence of everything that has every happened on Earth (or near Earth) that there is to find?)
- They Are Us
- Humans are the descendents of ancient alien civilizations. Problem: where are the original aliens? Where are all the other alien civilizations (absence of evidence is not evidence of absence)
- Zoo/Interdict Scenario
- The aliens are here, and they are keeping us in a well designed zoo (cut off from all contact) or there is an interdiction treaty to prevent contact with young races (us). Problem: scenario lacks the ability to be tested. Takes only one ET to break embargo. (Therefore it cannot be correct? Fails logic 101 test)
Well, I'm so glad he proved that was false!
They Exist But Have Not Yet Communicated
- They Have Not Had Time To Reach Us
- Speed of light slows communication levels, relativity makes space travel long. ET's message may not have reached us yet. Problem: Galaxy has been around for billions of years, even if one ET civilization formed a few million years before us, the Galaxy would be filled with Bracewell-von Neumann probes. (1 plus 1 = 2 therefore a = 10,345,286,456,379, 234.56... it's obvious)
- They Are Signaling, But We Do Not Know How To Listen
- EM radiation, gravity waves, exotic particles are all examples of methods to signal. Problem: they may use methods we have not learned yet, but if there are many civilizations someone would use EM methods. (because.... ?)
- Berserkers
- The Galaxy is filled with killer robots looking for signals. ET is keeping low. Problem: where are the berserkers coming after us? (OK, we've been broadcasting I Love Lucy for 52 years. Speed of light says we've touched a maximum of 2000 stars and of those only 150 or so are even possible to have life as we know it. So, if we accept the generally postulated number of stars in the Milky Way Galaxy of 100 billion, that's 0.0000002% of our galaxy that we must assume the berserkers happen to be lurking in a listening on channel 3 of the normal television band. It's obvious! They must have heard us by now!)
- They Have No Desire To Communicate
- ET has no interest in conversing with lesser beings. Problem: with millions of possible civilizations, someone would have some curiosity. (and we would of course be listening, on the right frequency and pointing our limited antennas in the right direction?)
- They Develop Different Mathematics
- Mathematics is the universal language. But humankind may have a unique system of mathematics that ET cannot understand. Problem: then where are their incomprehensible signals? (incomprehensible signals? By definition we can't understand them. What makes them think we can recognize them?)
- Catastrophes
- Civilizations only have a limited lifetime, They are all dead. (All? All of them have to be dead for them to have failed to contact us?)
- Overpopulation
- Nanobots -> Gray Goo Problem
- Dangerous Particle Physics
OK, so we've established that if they exist they MUST come see us before they do anything else. What's next?
They Do Not Exist
- We are the First, Life is New to the Galaxy
- Life is new to the Galaxy, evolution takes time, we are the first civilization. Problem: Sun is average star, if other stars formed a million years ahead of us, then They would be a million years ahead of us in technology.
A+B=C therefore Q=R. Of course! Why didn't I see it immediately?
Planets With the Right Conditions are Rare
- Planetary systems are rare
- Habitable zones, proper distance from star for liquid water, are narrow
- Galaxy is a dangerous place (gamma-ray bursters, asteroid impacts, etc)
- Earth/Moon system is unique (large tides needed for molecular evolution)
- Life Is Rare
- Life's Genesis is rare
- Intelligence/Tool-Making is rare
- Language is unique to humans
- Technology/Science is not inevitable
And? I mean, come on! This is the Drake equation. This is the ultimate logical challenge to this premise. Drop it in the middle like a pile of poop and just ignore it! Yeah! That's reasoning at its finest!
In general, solutions to Fermi's paradox come down to either 1) life is difficult to start and evolve (either hard for the process or hard to find the right conditions) or 2) advanced civilizations destroy themselves on short timescales. In other words, this is an important problem to solve in the hope that it is 1 and not 2.
Of course there is a 3rd possibility. The galaxy is huge and we are really really tiny, insignificant and VERY unimportant. I guess this is too difficult for the author to pick up on.
Sheesh.
Crap, crap, crap and, oh yeah, crap!
Fun article, however.