Posted on 05/29/2004 4:48:59 PM PDT by Graybeard58
President Bush leads John Kerry by 6 percentage points in the battle for Ohio, a state that could decide who wins the White House, according to a statewide Plain Dealer poll.
Ohio voters surveyed say they favor Bush over Kerry, 47 percent to 41 percent. Consumer advocate Ralph Nader draws 3 percent, though he has yet to qualify for the Ohio ballot. Nine percent say they are undecided.
Though Bush is given low marks for his handling of the economy and the war in Iraq, those who say they favor him cite his moral character and his stewardship over the war on terrorism and homeland security as reasons.
"I'm very concerned about what a change of administration would mean, primarily about security," says Bob Saul, a retired General Electric marketing manager from Cincinnati who participated in the poll.
Though the economy remains a major concern, Saul says he is not willing to risk returning "to an era of appeasement and therefore wind up being more vulnerable to future attacks."
Much of Kerry's support (62 percent) is from voters who say they favor him not so much for who he is but for who he is not - George Bush - a sign that Kerry has not yet sold himself or his plans to the state's voters.
"I'm more anti-Bush, and I'm not really that strong on Kerry," says Burel Eding of Toledo, who participated in the poll. "I feel we need a change. I supported Bush on the invasion in Afghanistan, but I don't think he's doing enough on the economy."
The poll, conducted May 20-25 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, is based on interviews with 1,500 registered voters who plan to vote in November. The poll, which has a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points, is the largest presidential poll taken in Ohio this year.
The results run counter to the findings of earlier polls, conducted in Ohio by other organizations, that have showed the race a dead heat or with Kerry slightly ahead.
The Plain Dealer results "remind us that there are 50 different state elections, and it is very important to pay attention to the polls in the states, particularly the ones done with a large sample of people who intend to vote," says Karlyn Bowman, who studies opinion polls at the American Enterprise Institute, a think tank in Washington, D.C. "There are clearly differences in the electorate in states about the race overall."
The poll shows Bush is favored even though nearly one out of two people surveyed say they disapprove of his handling of the economy, which remains the No. 1 issue of concern among Ohio voters. And Bush tops Kerry even though less than half - 45 percent - approve of his handling of the war in Iraq. Among those interviewed who are planning to vote for Bush, 53 percent cite his character and integrity as their top reason for supporting the president. Nearly 30 percent say they plan to vote for him first and foremost because they like the leadership he has shown in the war on terror.
"Bush's strength is the 'strength' issue," says Bowman. "People do believe nationally that the Bush administration has made this nation safer."
Kevin Madden, a Bush campaign spokesman, declined to comment on any of the poll's specific findings. He says he believes "Ohioans look to their president for leadership and clarity on the issues that are important to them" and "that is a message that we look forward to delivering throughout this campaign in Ohio."
Though Bush shows strength in this poll, the results "don't look good for a sitting president," says John Green, director of the Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron. Bush's support on foreign affairs could change, Green says, especially if the situation in Iraq worsens and it "gets caught up in an issue that he can't control."
For Kerry, the poll shows that voters have yet to connect with Kerry or his domestic and foreign affairs policies, reflected by the 62 percent of Kerry's support comes from people who dislike Bush. Twenty-one percent of those surveyed who plan to vote for Kerry cite his policies as the most important issue; 16 percent say his character and integrity is the top issue.
Bowman says Kerry needs to convert some of the anti-Bush vote into Kerry backers to improve his chances. To do that, she says, Kerry needs to raise more doubt about Bush's handling of the economy and make the message stick."That right now, in national polls and well in Ohio, is the strength of the Democrats because voters think Kerry would better handle the economy," she says.
Kerry doesn't have to convince Shirley Bruce of Munroe Falls.
"I'm with Kerry 100 percent," says Bruce, a retiree who participated in the poll. "I don't like that everything is leaving the state."
Bruce cites Kerry's emphasis on the economy as her top reason for supporting him. But she says she would like to learn more about him.
Kerry's campaign says it knows it must educate voters about the senator and his positions.
"Recent polling in Ohio has fluctuated, and it is still very early to rely on anyone particular poll," says Jennifer Palmieri, Kerry's Ohio spokeswoman. "These numbers reflect a overall dissatisfaction with Bush and an opportunity for John Kerry. We have to work hard to make sure people know who John Kerry is."
The Kerry campaign is airing biographical TV commercials in the state about his family and military background. And Kerry has benefited from special interest groups that have run ads in Ohio critical of Bush's policies. He and his wife, Theresa Heinz Kerry, have visited the state a half-dozen times.
Bush has visited Ohio 17 times as president and has spent millions here to air campaign commercials.
Ohio's voters were narrowly split in the 2000 election, with Bush defeating Al Gore by less than 4 percent. As a result, with 20 electoral votes up for grabs, the state is considered a top prize that could swing the election.
But campaigning in Ohio is difficult because it includes five distinct regions, from flat and mountainous rural regions with a conservative Republican bent to liberal urban areas that favor Democrats.
Voters in Ohio's socially conservative Southwest, which includes the Republican stronghold of Cincinnati, favor Bush by the widest margin - 20 percentage points - over Kerry, 54 percent to 34 percent.
By contrast, voters in the Northeast favor Kerry the most - by 9 percentage points - at 47 percent to 38 percent. The Northeast contains the Democratic cities Cleveland and Youngstown, which have suffered more job losses than most other parts of the state.
Ohio's Southeast region, which includes Appalachia, may be the most competitive at this point - with room for both candidates to make their mark. "The Southeast has born the brunt of economic troubles in Ohio and we will have Kerry spend a great deal of time there," Palmieri says. But converting voters might be difficult, the poll suggests.
Asked if it is reasonably possible that they might change their presidential vote before the November election, 73 percent of the would-be voters say no.
Still, that does leave a large number of undecided voters. Edith Coe of Granville, Ohio, is a voter on the fence.
"I was kind of interested in Kerry but with all the mudslinger ads neither one of them seems that good now," says Coe, a retired school district employee. "It's not that I think Bush is doing a horrible job, but when you hear about how Kerry fluctuates that scares you, too."
No it's just proof you don't live in Ohio. The economy is in the toilet here.
The few liberals where I work always scream the same thing about the economy. When I remind them that the economy is the best it's been in years it's always the same thing. Yeah, there are jobs but not good jobs. Well, get an education and get a good job. People think they are too good to do the $9 and $10 an hour jobs so they'd rather not work. The lowest paying job in our plant is approximately $16 an hour plus benefits and they still gripe even though they aren't looking for a job. There are more jobs in our town than there are people to do them but if they can't get rich they don't want to work. Liberals won't ever be happy unless everything is handed to them I guess. It's all Bushes fault. :-)
This oft-repeated gross exaggeration is really starting to get old.
In Apr 04 the national unemployment rate was 5.6%.
In Apr 04 Ohio's unemployment rate was 5.8%.
Courtesy of the BLS website. And I counted 12 states (including D.C.) that had equal or higher rates than OH.
Zog's running an interactive poll now which covers 16 battleground states. The survey includes some 10,000+ repsondents via the internet. I don't put much trust in Zog's stuff at this early stage..... jmo.
Now, if we can get PA back on course, and hang on to Michigan, we have the beginnings of the 330 vote landslide that I predicted!
Understatement of the week. This is HUGE news!!!
I have been more than a little worried about W's chances in light of many recent polls. This one helps renew my hope.
If we hold Ohio and Florida, then everything else will fall in place and we will win. If we lose either, I don't see a victory.
Well, Cleveland Plain Dealer is a more lib paper than the southern part; and this is a poll of REGISTERED voters, so tack up Pres. Bush by another 1-2%. Kerry is TOAST in Ohio, just as I promised. I'm still giving, and I still plan to work where I can, but Kerry will NOT win OH.
If kerry was up last week and President Bush was down that can only mean one thing, kerry was either seen, or heard this week, thereby reminding everyone what it is that we face, and what it is (everything) that he lacks.
The only way kerry wins is if things really keep going South, and in that event he's never seen or heard from, but remains an amorphous possiblity for improvement.
If that is way the way he is doing his polling, he is in for a BIG SURPRISE. I just moved...and after watching my Gen X son do this, I decided to do this in my move.
I NO LONGER HAVE A HOME PHONE. Like many today, all I have is my cel phone. I will never get polled by Zog...but I sure as hell will be voting for W in Nov.
Kerry is stupid and arrogant. Clinton was corrupt and incompetent. Where do the Dems get these guys?
Actually polls this far out are pretty much worthless..... a trend line can be developed if the pollster keeps the same methodology over time but they sometimes change so even trends are questionable.... Some percentage of the population is always undecided and only makes up their mind as the election nears.... Some in the last few days... These are the voters candidates are trying to win over. Who can do it most successfully will most likely be the winner...
I'm betting on Winston too, and the soccer moms will become security moms again. How soon people forget, what happened, and what is still ongoing.
Look at the figures by county and you'll find out just why Bush is trailing in the NE and SE. Half of the State has higher than 7.0% unemployment. The same problems exist just across the border in Western PA. Bush should be strong in SE Ohio and Western PA; he ain't.
By contrast, voters in the Northeast favor Kerry the most - by 9 percentage points - at 47 percent to 38 percent. The Northeast contains the Democratic cities Cleveland and Youngstown, which have suffered more job losses than most other parts of the state.
That, in microcosm, is the problems Dems have nationally. They run strongest in areas whose economies -- and populations -- are shrinking.
On the other hand, look at the areas where economic and population growth are most explosive. Suburbs of Sunbelt cities, for example. Democrats have little hope in counties such as Cobb and Gwinnett, Georgia (Atlanta suburbs), Williamson, Tennessee (Nashville suburbs), or my own county of Union, North Carolina (Charlotte suburbs). In each case, these are the fastest growing areas of their respective states, and they vote solidly GOP at the national level and increasingly so at the local level. This does not bode well for the Democrats long-term.
Not to mention the Bombay Sapphire consumption.
That's a far cry from "in the toilet."
I really have to wonder how the pollsters are interpreting W's approval numbers. I don't particularly approve of his handling of Iraq -- but that does NOT mean that I think Kerry would do better. On the contrary, if I'm dissatisfied with W it's because I think we've been way too namby-pamby!!
And Charlotte is dumping into York County. Bad for the Dems in the SC CD district, but also bad for the GOP in NC.
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