SurveyUSA: Beasley, Demint deadlocked in SC GOP Runoff

SurveyUSA ^ | 06/15/04 | SurveyUSA

[Josh in PA]

8 days to South Carolina GOP Senate Runoff: Beasley & Demint in Dead-Heat

Beasley won 6/8 primary by 13, before Demint was endorsed by 3rd-place Ravenel.

* In a Republican runoff election for US Senate in South Carolina today, David Beasley & Jim Demint tie, according to SurveyUSA poll of 527 certain runoff voters.

* Today, 8 days out, It's Beasley 48%, Demint 47%, in data gathered 6/12 - 6/14.

* Beasley leads among voters age 49 & under; Demint leads among voters age 50+. * Beasley leads among conservatives; Demint leads among moderates. * Beasley leads in Eastern SC; Demint leads in Western SC; the 2 tie in central SC. * Beasley leads in Rural SC, Demint leads in Suburban SC; the 2 tie in Urban areas.

* 68% of Ravenel 6/8 primary voters now vote for Demint, after Ravenel endorsed Demint.

[Josh in PA]

Tight in South Carolina.

[AuH2ORepublican]

GO, DEMINT, GO!

[Kuksool]

[68% of Ravenel 6/8 primary voters now vote for Demint, after Ravenel endorsed Demint.]

If DeMint can sweep Low Country, then he would capture the GOP nomination and be in a strong position for the general election.

[JRPerry]

I will be voting for DeMint. The flip-floping liberal (he switched parties without switching philosophies) David "Sleasy" Beasley is going down in this one.

Vote For DeMint! ... please. :)

Russ

[Rhetorical pi2]

Sumbody from South Carolina - or knowledgeable about this race - tell us who we should we want to win (and why).

Also, which way would you bet.

[Rhetorical pi2]

Well...If I had just sat quietly and watched my monitor, the questions I had would have been answered!! :o)

...and in fact, were answered before I got my message posted in any event.

Ain't FREEPERS impressive?! They can answer your questions before you even ask them!! :o)

[southernnorthcarolina]

Thanks for posting this, Josh. I live, as my screen name indicates, in southern NC; in fact, I'm so close to the border that I can see SC from here. Interesting race, breaking down along some old divisions in SC. It's made more interesting by the fact that the winner of this runoff will, with 95%+ certainty, be South Carolina's next Senator. Inez Tannenbaum, the Dem nominee, was as good as the Dems could have done, but it won't be enough. And as Strom and Fritz have shown, Senate seats don't turn over often there.

It's DeMint, by the way; the original blog was in all caps, so you can't tell.

The runoff most certainly is NOT between a conservative and a moderate, as the article implies. Rather, it's between a social conservative and an economic conservative. Congressman DeMint had an ACU rating of 100 in 2002, and 96 in 2003; he has a career rating of 97. Some "moderate"!

I hope, and believe, that DeMint will win, since I care exponentially more about taxation and trade than I do about posting the Ten Commandments and banning video poker. But either of the candidates will be a strong conservative voice, by any reasonable standard.

[zbigreddogz]

People would be more likely to vote DeMint if his supporters wern't constantly spreading half-truths and breaking the 11th commandment in regards to Beasley.

I'm a political junkie, not a SC voter, but it's surprised and sickened me how dirty this race has become.

[zbigreddogz]

Tough choice IMHO. Some older folk hate Beasley because he tried to remove the confederate flag (anybody who gets excited about this issue is out of their mind IMHO, but that's another story), but he's both won, and lost, statewide before. He's conservative on everything but trade, which he's moderate on.

DeMint isn't proven statewide one way or another, but is from the same side of the state as Senator Graham. Some say this will hurt him. He also isn't as good of a campaigner, I hear, but he has less baggage then Beasley. He's more conservative on trade.

Up to you really. Honestly, I don't care which one wins as long as they beat Tenembaum.

[SC Swamp Fox]

SC Ping

FReepmail me if you want on or off this list.

[Clintonfatigued]

David Beasley's strength is among rural white voters, some of whom still call themselves Democrats. In winning a narrow victory in 1994, Beasley ran well ahead of other Republicans. He ran very close in the northern portion of the state (the area between Greenville and his hometown of Dorchester), and swept the area around the Georgia border (from Aiken to Anderson). And in his 1998 loss, he still ran slightly ahead of the normal Republican vote there. Those are key voters, the ones most inclined to ticket-splitting. While Beasley is far from perfect, he's still a stronger candidate than James DeMint, a citified, free-trading elitest.

[Holden Magroin]

How is a free trader going to win South Carolina?

[doosee]

This is info. from the Beasley campaign but credible and public. This won't make the DeMint people happy. Now that the Reagan funeral truce period is passed, the action is picking up.

June 15, 2004

| |Condon and Ravenel Supporters Rally Behind Beasley

| |Beasley gains momentum with key endorsements | |

| | | |COLUMBIA ? As the Republican runoff nears, it is becoming clear that David Beasley is picking up a large portion of South Carolinians who previously supported either Thomas Ravenel or Charlie Condon.

| |Dr. George Graham, a state co-chairman for Ravenel, and Dan Ross, one of | |Condon's high-profile supporters, have now both signed up with Beasley's | |campaign. Ross and Graham are both former state Republican Party chairmen, | |along with Ken Powell, another new convert to the Beasley team this week.

|"I am humbled and honored to have the support of these leading Republicans.| |It means the world to me to have these fine folks in my corner. I look | |forward to working with them as we spread our conservative message across | |the state."

| |Other Republican leaders who served in leadership roles with Attorney General Charlie Condon and have endorsed Beasley in the run-off include former Chief of Staff and Condon for Senate Finance Committee member Robert Bolchoz, former Greenville County GOP Chairman Stephen Brown, former Greenville County GOP Chairman Lisa Stevens, Lexington County Republican Party State Executive Committeeman Tom McLean and Lee County Republican |Party Chairman Sam Cerezo. Carroll Campbell III, who served as chairman of|Charlie Condon's exploratory committee, endorsed Beasley in the primary.

| |Republican leaders who served in leadership roles with Ravenel include Dr. | |George Graham and Bamberg County GOP Chairman Kay Maxwell. Myrtle Beach City Councilman Randal Wallace, who served on Mayor Mark McBride's steering committee, has also endorsed Beasley.

|Click here for the Beasley for Senate web site» |

Paid for by Beasley for Senate, Inc.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"How is a free trader going to win South Carolina?"

---

The same way Reagan, Bush and Thurmond won in SC. Besides, DeMint isn't a Cato Institute free-trader by any stretch. I think we'll hear DeMint talk about how free trade helps South Carolina businesses, but that we need to ensure that free trade does not become unfair trade, and that he'll keep a careful eye on any future trade agreements and bills, just as he did when he made sure that trade agreements under Bush's trade promotion authority required that textiles be dyed, finished and printed in the United States.

[doosee]

This same survey company on June 8th had Beasley winning, Ravenel finishing second 3 points ahead of DeMint. That isnt exactly a good reference for accuracy. But I think the runoff will be fairly close. DB will win 52 to 48.

[doosee]

just as he did when he made sure that trade agreements under Bush's trade promotion authority required that textiles be dyed, finished and printed in the United States.




How about that, hope for the unemployed after all, they can get into the ty dyed T shirt business. Is that one step above or below Wal-Mart greeter.

[Kuksool]

The key to the South Carolina Senate race will be Low Country. Recent election results reveal that the winner of statewide elections carried Low Country. Beasley lost in 1998 due to Jim Hodges carrying Metro Charleston and the Coast. In 2002, the region swung over to Mark Sanford. This gave him the margin of victory. Also being a Charleston resident surely helped Ernest Hollings survive re-election in 1992 and 1998. Interesting to note, Beasley never fared well in Low Country. In 1994, Beasley won the Governorship, 49-48, without carrying Low Country. His victory might have been a bit of a fluke. If Beasley wants to prove he is the real deal, he must carry Low Country in the runoff. Otherwise if he wins the GOP nomination without Low Country support, he is in deep trouble in the general election.

[JohnnyZ]

This same survey company on June 8th had Beasley winning, Ravenel finishing second 3 points ahead of DeMint. That isnt exactly a good reference for accuracy.

Geez, they nailed it pretty darn close, given the margin of error, and considering it was a primary, which are notoriously hard to project because of turnout -- what more do you want?!?!?!?!?

SUSA Primary Poll ---- Result
Beasley 38% --- 36.3
Ravenel 23% --- 24.7
DeMint 20% --- 26.1
Condon 12% --- 9.3
Other/Undec 5% -- 3.5
Margin of Error 4.5%

[JRPerry]

I see we have some Beasley staff or campaign people FReeping huh?

LOL

Forget all the political mumbo jumbo and poll watching in this one. Look in David Beasley's eyes. Watch his demeanor. Check into his past history. Has he lied about little things that he would have been better off just not commenting about? Is he a known filp flopper? Can he be trusted? What kind of person is he? Has he been a faithful husband?

Do some checking. It would be a huge mistake for we South Carolinians to nominate David Beasley in this one. They do not call him 'Sleasey' Beasley for nothing.

And oh, BTW ... this has nothing to do with being a DeMint supporter. It has everything to do with anyone but Beasley.

Also, Ravenel did not endorse Beasley ... and that entire press release on DB's site is just another scam attempt of his - a play on words. Ravenel has endorsed DeMint. I'm not sure about TC.

[zbigreddogz]

Like I said, I'm nutral in the runoff, and I had already seen this from Beasley's website, but this is misleading at best.

It is true that some staffers from both campaigns have gone to work for him, but Ravenell actually endorsed DeMint.