Posted on 06/21/2004 12:55:23 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
The U.S. government has cited China as the No. 1 threat to global security for the second time in less than a month.
Both the Pentagon and the Commission on U.S-China Economic and Security Review cited Beijing as a major threat to U.S. national security. The two reports noted the growing military capability of China combined with its predatory economic policy is aimed directly at the United States.
The latest report released by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission was approved by a "unanimous vote of all eleven Commissioners." According to the Commission China's co-operation on international security matters is "un-satisfactory."
The Commission examined in depth the extent of ongoing co-operation between China and the United States on traditional national security matters, most particularly China's assistance in re-solving the North Korea nuclear weapons crisis. The Commission believes that China's performance in this area to date has been unsatisfactory, and we are concerned that U.S. pressure on trade disputes and other unrelated aspects of the relationship may have been toned down by the administration as a concession for China's hoped-for cooperation on this and other vital security matters."
Economic War
According to the report, China is deliberately using economic warfare against America to seek a "competitive advantage over U.S. manufacturers."
"Economic fundamentals suggest that the Chinese yuan is undervalued, with a growing consensus of economists estimating the level of undervaluation to be anywhere from fifteen to forty percent. The Chinese government persistently intervenes in the foreign exchange market to keep its exchange rate pegged at 8.28 yuan per dollar, and through these actions appears to be manipulating its currency valuation," states the report.
The Commission also noted that China is violating its pledges to the World Trade Organization and that U.S. investors may actually be investing in the PLA military expansion.
"China has deliberately frustrated the effectiveness and debased the value of the WTO's TRM (Transitional Review Mechanism) which was intended to be a robust mechanism for assessing China's WTO compliance and for placing multilateral pressure on China to address compliance shortfalls."
"Without adequate information about Chinese firms trading in international capital markets, U.S. investors may be unwittingly pouring money into black box firms lacking basic corporate governance structures, as well as enterprises involved in activities harmful to U.S. security interests," noted the report.
Weapons for Oil
The Commission report also noted that China continues to proliferate advanced weapons to many of its client states including North Korea, Pakistan, and Iran. In addition, China now appears to be willing to trade weapons for oil.
"China's growing energy needs, linked to its rapidly expanding economy, are creating economic and security concerns for the United States. China's energy security policies are driving it into bilateral arrangements that undermine multilateral efforts to stabilize oil supplies and prices, and in some cases may involve dangerous weapons transfers," stated the report.
"China has sought energy cooperation with countries of concern to the United States, including Iran and Sudan, which are inaccessible by U.S. and other western firms. Some analysts have voiced suspicions that China may have offered WMD-related transfers as a component of some of its energy deals," noted the Commission.
New Weapons
The Commission report also revealed that Russia has sold China a more advanced version of the deadly SUNBURN (3M83 Moskit) cruise missile. Nikolay Shcherbakov, adviser to the director general of the Altair Naval Scientific Research Institute of Electronic Engineering, is reported as saying that "we are supplying China with new-generation equipment. We have been allowed to supply MOSKIT supersonic antiship cruise missiles with twice the range - 240km instead of the existing 120."
The Commission also noted a growing concern that China would use nuclear weapons to attack and defeat U.S. forces in the event of a war over Taiwan.
"Recognizing the possible involvement of the U.S. military, the current scholarship on China's R & D finds that PRC strategists believe that a superior navy could be defeated through the disabling of its space-based systems, as for example, by exo-atmospheric detonation of a nuclear warhead to generate an electromagnetic pulse," stated the report.
In addition, the Commission noted that China is pursuing an advanced laser weapon for use against Taiwanese and U.S. forces.
"It has recently been reported that China has successfully developed a laser cannon with a range of more than one hundred kilometers and might have already deployed it in Fujian Province facing Taiwan."
Shooting War in 2005
The Commission's report painted a deadly and growing picture of the Chinese threat with a possible conflict only a year away.
"The China Affairs Department of the Democratic Progressive Party published a report on China's basic military capabilities in which it said that Beijing had developed a 'sudden strike' strategy to attack Taiwan. This story discussed a scenario in which an attack would consist of an initial seven-minute shock and strike missile barrage that would paralyze Taiwan's command system, followed by seventeen minutes in which Taiwan's air space will be invaded by fighter jets. Within twenty-four hours of the strike, 258,000 Chinese troops could be deployed in Taiwan. China's fast-growing military modernization and expansion is aimed at a possible war between 2005 and 2010, according to the report," stated the Commission report.
In early June the Pentagon released a Congressionally mandated report on Chinese military developments. The Pentagon report outlined the double-digit increases in Chinese defense spending and major weapons purchases from Russia.
China currently is third in total defense spending, behind the U.S. and Russia, with nearly $100 billion a year now budgeted for the PLA. The Pentagon report noted that the PLA double-digit increases are expected to continue through 2010.
According to the report, the Chinese build-up of ballistic missiles has changed the balance of power in the Pacific, threatening to start a war over Taiwan. China currently has an estimated 550 short-range missiles opposite Taiwan.
"China most likely will be able to cause significant damage to all of Taiwan's airfields and quickly degrade Taiwan's ground based air-defenses and associated command and control through a combination of SRBMs (short range ballistic missiles), land-attack cruise missiles, special operation forces and other assets," stated the Pentagon report. The Pentagon report noted that China is increasing its long-range missile capability and is expected to expand its inventory to 30 such missiles by the end of 2005. The Pentagon anticipates the Chinese long-range nuclear missile force will exceed 60 before the end of the decade.
Nuclear War
The Pentagon report also warned that Chinese military strategists are considering the use of nuclear weapons against U.S. and Taiwanese forces. According to the Pentagon, a nuclear weapon detonated at high altitude would create an "electromagnetic" shock wave that will disrupt U.S. communications and scramble sophisticated military computers. "PLA theorists who have become aware of these electromagnetic effects may have considered using a nuclear weapon as an unconventional attack option," stated the Pentagon report.
Chinese authorities have reacted explosively to the recent reports, especially over the U.S. commitment to Taiwan. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao underscored the unstable nature of China's relationship by threatening to use military force to seize control of the tiny island nation.
According to the official PRC news Xinhua, China will never tolerate "Taiwan independence", neither will China allow anybody to split Taiwan from the motherland with any means.
"The Taiwan independence activities are the greatest threats to the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait," stated Liu. The official PRC spokesman also asked the United States to stop selling advanced weapons to Taiwan under any pretenses and refrain from sending wrong signals to Taiwan.
Excellent Answer...you nailed it.
"They eyeball Japan and and oil and mineral reserves of the souhthern Pacific. What was it called when the Japanese did it? The Great Asian Co-prosperity Sphere or sumpin' like that. Same thing. Also, the Chinese have not forgotten WWII like we have."
And the Chinese could afford to put million man armies in places like the Phillipenes and Indonesia to serve as occupation forces. They could put 10 million in Japan.
"Taiwan is unfinished business for the mainland."
Deserves to be repeated.
Interesting scenario on Japan, which brings this question: How would China react if Japan announced it was going full out to re-arm.
What scares China more - a large Japanese navy, a giant expenditure on fighter aircraft or re-invigorating a few dozen divisions of samurai grunts?
Does Japan have a defense treaty with Taiwan?
How might Japan react to an invasion of Taiwan by China? Simple hand wringing or might the Japanese invade the Sprattley Islands and throw the ChiComs out??
I know I'm asking you to play crystal ball wizard, but it's always interesting to speculate.
Don't forget the the Spratleys(?). The PRC has an interest all along the Pacific Rim and into the Indian Ocean. All the geopolitical stuff is important. The point I was making was that ideology trumps everything else in a communist/socialist environment.</p>
Have you priced any steel or concrete lately?
China is hurting us, bad. The prices of commodities is going through the roof, and there's no end in sight.
It's called "war", and the goal is to win.
China has been quite frank about their ultimate intentions toward the west, and we ignore them at our own peril.
Given that a sizeable chunk of the US electorate is wearying of the commitment to Iraq (already), I think the US defense commitment to Taiwan is in serious question.
It seems pretty clear that China is manipulating the North Korean crisis to their advantage. Any move against Taiwan will probably come after a military confrontation on the Korean Penninsula.
Its supply and demand. The Chinese are buying more stuff than they used to as they move to Capitalism.
A unified Asia taken by force and or the threat of it?
The Chicoms have a bit more in their plans when and if they attack Taiwan.
Expect S Korea and other Asian countries to follow.
How does our Navy defend against an attack that consists of a call from Peking to all COSCO ships, ordering them to turn around?
I give us 30 days of non-supply from China before we're on our knees.
We've exported our manufacturing infrastructure. We have placed ourselves at the mercy of our avowed foe. We have made ourselves dependent on an enemy for our very survival.
We are fools, and China has been laughing all the way to the bank.
So, what will our Navy do? Mount an antiblockade?
Hint: There ain't no such thing.
China isn't moving to capitalism. They're merely engaging in strategic socialism.
The west has blinded itself, dead set on proving Lenin's rope theory correct.
It is war. And as long as only the aggressor realizes that it's war (rather than "commerce"), the more certain the outcome will end up in their favor.
You can't make this sh!t up.
That's unlikely - the Free Trade Kool-Aid tastes too great.
That is the real issue at stake is pride. Would they start a war over it? I don't think so. If China was ever to start a major war, they would invade the middle east. Their demand for energy is a compelling factor.
It would be a lot easier to defeat the Chinese in the Pacific then it would be to prevent them from overrunning the Middle East.
Japan already has over 200 nuclear weapons ready for final assembly, according Jane's I think.
The jihadists which we are battling today are merely the pawns of the PLA - for money. Note the increased need for oil as well as the proximity to the ME oil fields - China is only one nation away from owning real estate in the ME. That is the explanation for China's investments in Pakistan, and an additional incentive for why we are in Iraq - to keep China out of the ME. The al Qeada are only "Hired guns" if you will, to keep China's deniability and the PLA out of the fight until we are attrited. Laugh all you want at that idea, but in the end you'll see that is true.
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