Posted on 06/21/2004 12:55:23 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
The U.S. government has cited China as the No. 1 threat to global security for the second time in less than a month.
Both the Pentagon and the Commission on U.S-China Economic and Security Review cited Beijing as a major threat to U.S. national security. The two reports noted the growing military capability of China combined with its predatory economic policy is aimed directly at the United States.
The latest report released by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission was approved by a "unanimous vote of all eleven Commissioners." According to the Commission China's co-operation on international security matters is "un-satisfactory."
The Commission examined in depth the extent of ongoing co-operation between China and the United States on traditional national security matters, most particularly China's assistance in re-solving the North Korea nuclear weapons crisis. The Commission believes that China's performance in this area to date has been unsatisfactory, and we are concerned that U.S. pressure on trade disputes and other unrelated aspects of the relationship may have been toned down by the administration as a concession for China's hoped-for cooperation on this and other vital security matters."
Economic War
According to the report, China is deliberately using economic warfare against America to seek a "competitive advantage over U.S. manufacturers."
"Economic fundamentals suggest that the Chinese yuan is undervalued, with a growing consensus of economists estimating the level of undervaluation to be anywhere from fifteen to forty percent. The Chinese government persistently intervenes in the foreign exchange market to keep its exchange rate pegged at 8.28 yuan per dollar, and through these actions appears to be manipulating its currency valuation," states the report.
The Commission also noted that China is violating its pledges to the World Trade Organization and that U.S. investors may actually be investing in the PLA military expansion.
"China has deliberately frustrated the effectiveness and debased the value of the WTO's TRM (Transitional Review Mechanism) which was intended to be a robust mechanism for assessing China's WTO compliance and for placing multilateral pressure on China to address compliance shortfalls."
"Without adequate information about Chinese firms trading in international capital markets, U.S. investors may be unwittingly pouring money into black box firms lacking basic corporate governance structures, as well as enterprises involved in activities harmful to U.S. security interests," noted the report.
Weapons for Oil
The Commission report also noted that China continues to proliferate advanced weapons to many of its client states including North Korea, Pakistan, and Iran. In addition, China now appears to be willing to trade weapons for oil.
"China's growing energy needs, linked to its rapidly expanding economy, are creating economic and security concerns for the United States. China's energy security policies are driving it into bilateral arrangements that undermine multilateral efforts to stabilize oil supplies and prices, and in some cases may involve dangerous weapons transfers," stated the report.
"China has sought energy cooperation with countries of concern to the United States, including Iran and Sudan, which are inaccessible by U.S. and other western firms. Some analysts have voiced suspicions that China may have offered WMD-related transfers as a component of some of its energy deals," noted the Commission.
New Weapons
The Commission report also revealed that Russia has sold China a more advanced version of the deadly SUNBURN (3M83 Moskit) cruise missile. Nikolay Shcherbakov, adviser to the director general of the Altair Naval Scientific Research Institute of Electronic Engineering, is reported as saying that "we are supplying China with new-generation equipment. We have been allowed to supply MOSKIT supersonic antiship cruise missiles with twice the range - 240km instead of the existing 120."
The Commission also noted a growing concern that China would use nuclear weapons to attack and defeat U.S. forces in the event of a war over Taiwan.
"Recognizing the possible involvement of the U.S. military, the current scholarship on China's R & D finds that PRC strategists believe that a superior navy could be defeated through the disabling of its space-based systems, as for example, by exo-atmospheric detonation of a nuclear warhead to generate an electromagnetic pulse," stated the report.
In addition, the Commission noted that China is pursuing an advanced laser weapon for use against Taiwanese and U.S. forces.
"It has recently been reported that China has successfully developed a laser cannon with a range of more than one hundred kilometers and might have already deployed it in Fujian Province facing Taiwan."
Shooting War in 2005
The Commission's report painted a deadly and growing picture of the Chinese threat with a possible conflict only a year away.
"The China Affairs Department of the Democratic Progressive Party published a report on China's basic military capabilities in which it said that Beijing had developed a 'sudden strike' strategy to attack Taiwan. This story discussed a scenario in which an attack would consist of an initial seven-minute shock and strike missile barrage that would paralyze Taiwan's command system, followed by seventeen minutes in which Taiwan's air space will be invaded by fighter jets. Within twenty-four hours of the strike, 258,000 Chinese troops could be deployed in Taiwan. China's fast-growing military modernization and expansion is aimed at a possible war between 2005 and 2010, according to the report," stated the Commission report.
In early June the Pentagon released a Congressionally mandated report on Chinese military developments. The Pentagon report outlined the double-digit increases in Chinese defense spending and major weapons purchases from Russia.
China currently is third in total defense spending, behind the U.S. and Russia, with nearly $100 billion a year now budgeted for the PLA. The Pentagon report noted that the PLA double-digit increases are expected to continue through 2010.
According to the report, the Chinese build-up of ballistic missiles has changed the balance of power in the Pacific, threatening to start a war over Taiwan. China currently has an estimated 550 short-range missiles opposite Taiwan.
"China most likely will be able to cause significant damage to all of Taiwan's airfields and quickly degrade Taiwan's ground based air-defenses and associated command and control through a combination of SRBMs (short range ballistic missiles), land-attack cruise missiles, special operation forces and other assets," stated the Pentagon report. The Pentagon report noted that China is increasing its long-range missile capability and is expected to expand its inventory to 30 such missiles by the end of 2005. The Pentagon anticipates the Chinese long-range nuclear missile force will exceed 60 before the end of the decade.
Nuclear War
The Pentagon report also warned that Chinese military strategists are considering the use of nuclear weapons against U.S. and Taiwanese forces. According to the Pentagon, a nuclear weapon detonated at high altitude would create an "electromagnetic" shock wave that will disrupt U.S. communications and scramble sophisticated military computers. "PLA theorists who have become aware of these electromagnetic effects may have considered using a nuclear weapon as an unconventional attack option," stated the Pentagon report.
Chinese authorities have reacted explosively to the recent reports, especially over the U.S. commitment to Taiwan. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao underscored the unstable nature of China's relationship by threatening to use military force to seize control of the tiny island nation.
According to the official PRC news Xinhua, China will never tolerate "Taiwan independence", neither will China allow anybody to split Taiwan from the motherland with any means.
"The Taiwan independence activities are the greatest threats to the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait," stated Liu. The official PRC spokesman also asked the United States to stop selling advanced weapons to Taiwan under any pretenses and refrain from sending wrong signals to Taiwan.
Sadly, I'm happy to see that the administration is taking the Chinese threat seriously. We are going to need all the Mexicans we can get if we decide to bring our manufacturing back.
Yea, I saw this. Crazy huh, shooting war maybe by next year?!?!? Did you see the nice little quote about American companies paying for PLA military expansion. About time someone said it!
You have no idea what our navy is capable of. You havn't even factored in our submarines. Their military equipment and strategies are still geared in the WW2 era. Their only hope is to do their damage and get out before we show up.
I give us 30 days of non-supply from China before we're on our knees.
How long can china last without our influx of money? It works both ways. We can get the same items elsewhere for a little more money. Who the hell is going to pick up the buying spree if the US stops spending? Where will china turn to buy their crap? If the US trade stops, the chinese economy will go in a tailspin compared to the hit the US economy would suffer. And our economy is free enough to rebound from that. Can you say the same for china?
We've exported our manufacturing infrastructure. We have placed ourselves at the mercy of our avowed foe. We have made ourselves dependent on an enemy for our very survival.
Vote for Kerry if you actually believe this one.
I think China is a threat to Taiwan and to the US, but they have a whole lot of problems on their own right now.
So what happens next? What do they gain by doing this, since Taiwan doesn't exactly have a pile of resource wealth that makes it a worthwhile military target?
Here's the next question: two weeks after the last organized resistance ends in Taipei, several nuclear weapons detonate in Beijing. An organization styling itself as "The Avengers of Taiwan" claims credit and demands the immediate withdrawal of all ChiCom forces from Taiwan, plus payment of an enormous indemnity by China, or more cities will be destroyed. The PRC is given 12 hours to start retrograding their troops, without their equipment.
What do the ChiComs do at that point?
Send boarding parties to capture the errant ships...
So, what will our Navy do? Mount an antiblockade?
Hint: There ain't no such thing.
Hint: we can capture all oil tankers headed for China.
I give us 30 days of non-supply from China before we're on our knees.
China would last less than 15 without oil imports.
Oh, and they'd discover that those funny green pieces of paper are cut to the wrong size to use as toilet paper.
I suggest that all the people hyperventilating about "Unrestricted Warfare" read enough history to understand what happens to countries that try to apply "Unrestricted Warfare."
Yes. And we continue to ignore them at our growing peril.
And, of course, they will capture all of the manufacturing and laboratory facilities intact after an intense shooting war through the streets of Taipei.
With the latest upgrade, the Dong-Feng 41 should be able to hit all US targets by 2010 with a projected range of 12,000 km.
We've been able to hit all ChiCom targets since 1960. Whoop-de-do.
Oops, you weren't supposed to notice that little detail.
The ability to strike all US targets will most certainly give them more confident that we would not volitionally respond to a Taiwan offensive or be capable of responding should they venture a first strike against us. You can bet our war gamers are very concerned about this advent in capability.
confident = confidence
Maybe we need grammar check, too. Arghhhh! ;o)
This is exactly the scenario we've been warning the free traitors about - only it isn't in the distant future. It is here and now.
It isn't just investors who are making the Chinese army stronger - those who buy Chinese goods at Wal Mart have a portion of the blame also.
Folks, we have to end the transfer of our industrial base to China or they will use those factories to kill our allies, our troops, and our civilians.
If you want on or off my offshoring ping list, please FReepmail me!
I didn't realize that Taiwan was the only place in the world to get those components. The things you learn on FR...
When Red China invades Taiwan it will not be overt--it will be something more like a Trojan Horse operation. There will be problems in Taiwan--rival presidents and riots. The Chinese will come to restore order. Some will welcome them. The "fifth Column" and Red Chinese agents will seize the airports and plains will bring in the troops--who will also come by ships. Some Taiwanese will welcome them as liberators. It will all be over in 48 hours. They will use their new naval power to hold us back until the war is over. Then, they will march on Viet Nam seeking the oil reserves and keep heading south. Will we risk Nuclear war for Indonesia and Malaya? Nope. They will have the oil and resorces they need. For all we know they might make life better for the people they take over. It will not be an empire just a unified communist block. By then we will be so dependent on China that we couldn't live without their stuff. That's what I see.
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