Skip to comments.Bush leads in North Carolina media poll [47-42]
Posted on 06/22/2004 5:02:50 AM PDT by BlackRazor
Bush leads in North Carolina media poll
RALEIGH, N.C. - President Bush would win North Carolina by a slim margin if the presidential election was held today, according to a new statewide poll.
In the poll, 47 percent of likely voters chose Bush, a Republican, while 42 percent selected presumptive Democratic nominee John Kerry.
The margin would be smaller if Kerry picks Sen. John Edwards as his running mate, according to the survey, conducted June 13-16 for The News & Observer, WRAL-TV and WUNC radio.
"Kerry doesn't have to win North Carolina to win the presidency. Everybody knows that. Bush knows that," said Del Ali of Research 2000, the Maryland polling firm that conducted the survey. "But by taking Edwards on the ticket, it really does force Bush to spend time in an area that, frankly, he can't afford to spend time in."
Both Republicans and Democrats said Monday that the numbers are unusually close for North Carolina, which hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Bush beat Democrat Al Gore 56 percent to 43 percent in 2000.
Democrats say the unpopularity of the war in Iraq, coupled with the state's continuing economic struggles, has turned North Carolina into a battleground state.
"Against an incumbent president in a state that has gone for Republicans every year since 1980, the fact that John Kerry is within five points even without John Edwards on the ticket tells me it's going to be a competitive race," said Ed Turlington, a Democrat and Edwards associate.
Republicans say Bush's popularity will pick up. They say the economy is improving and the scheduled handoff of power in Iraq on June 30 will improve U.S. opinion of events there.
"All the bad publicity in the last two months has certainly had an effect on his popularity," said Jim Culbertson, state finance chairman of the Bush campaign. "But I think this is probably going to be the absolute low point of the campaign."
Bush's job approval rating in North Carolina has slipped from 63 percent in July 2003 to 52 percent now, according to the poll.
From what I've seen, snake oil salesmen like Clinton and Edwards do very well in the South.
"What is the accuracy of polls that use these over polling of one group or the other?"
I have no idea. The poll may be accurate, but this is just a snapshot of mid june. In four months the mood may well change. History has shown that things will improve for Bush, the question is, is this the groundbreaking year or not.
Did this poll include the dead people, who seem to vote democrat enmasse?
I'm no eye doctor, Johnny Z, but from your view of snake oil salesmen in relation to many of my southern brothers and sisters-I declare you to have twenty-twenty vision.
This poll was conducted by Research 2000, and they were very accurate in 2000.. among the best. I think it's close to being accurate..
Mason-Dixon had Bush by 7 in a mid-May poll., Mason-Dixon was also very accurate in 2000.
Two of the best polling services from 2000, have similar results, I think we need to accept them as fact, unless you want to keep your head in the clouds and only accept good news and ignore bad.
Research 2000, 6/13-6/16, Bush 47-42.
Mason-Dixon, 5/14-5/17, Bush 48-41.
I would put Bush's North Carolina lead at 6.
Please cite where I have kept my "head in the clouds" and only accepted good news while ignoring bad. I think most people who read my posts on a regular basis would vouch for my objectivity in interpreting poll results, and say that I probably lean a bit to the more cautious side.
Sorry.. My post wasn't directed towards you. I replied to the main post after reading all the other threads and put all my thoughts into one post. Sorry about that.
Wasn't there a poll a few days ago showing the Dem with a double digit lead in the Senate race?..That's a lot of ticket splitting..
Huh? Are you talking about the Irksome Bowles/Richard Burr race? I am not sure about recent polling on that race, but last I heard Bowles was ahead. Of course, he has been running ads for a while now and Burr has not run any in most of the state. I saw one last weekend while visiting relatives on a Raleigh station and that was the first one I have seen.
I am not too worried about that race either, as Burr can more than hold his own in a debate and has been a champion of tobacco and manufacturing interests here with a record to back that up. All Bowles has is his time in Clinton's Administration where he was not as friendly to the tobacco and manufacturing interests here, especially with regards to furniture.
Add to that the fact that Bush will likely be making appearances with Burr and that Bowles is trying everything he can to distance himself from Clinton and I think the race is far from over.
But, I am a "glass half full" type by nature so take it for what it's worth! :)
Yup..that's the one..I'm not to worried about it either.. look, Edwards "dropped out" to run for president because he wasn't sure he could hold the seat, an if he lost, his political career is over..and Liddy clobbered Bowles last time out, and she's working really hard to defeat him again..I've become a big fan of hers..but I was just mentioning the race in the context of the polls in the articles...notice now a 5-7% lead for W is "slim" in the story...it also seemed inconceivable that Bush coudl be ahead by that marging, and Bowles ahead by an even bigger margin..it doesn't compute..
Gotcha! I wasn't clear on what you were saying. I generally don't put a lot of stock in polls, as I have found that they aren't that accurate at the local or national level. I remember a poll showing a race was "close" several years ago (may have been a Helms/Gantt race, I don't remember!) all the way up to the election. Turned out not to be that close at all in the end. All I really remember was how the pundits were left scratching their heads!
I think local polls, especially those in MY neck of the NC woods (Peidmont/Triad) are so skewed they are pathetic. I know the Greensboro News & Excuse does them from time to time and they are almost predictable before they come out. They are disgustingly left-wing in their views and are becoming more brazen about it.
I think NC is pretty safe this year in Senate and Presidential races. Now, if we could just get Tax Hike Mike out of office.....