Electoral College Breakdown 2004, June 30th Update

ECB 2004 ^ | 6/30/04

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

I mean, it is CT after all, but MA is MA and look what is happening there. +8 to Kerry? Somethings fishy.

[GottaLuvAkitas1]

LOL We just got home from Innsbrook. Vother registration is going great.

This poll is crap!

[ScottFromSpokane]

It is ironic that the party associated with conservatism, the Republicans, would benefit from change (in voters' perception of the state of the economy), while the party identified with progressivism, the Democrats, needs to fight against such change and maintain the status quo, and then some.

It's also ironic that Republicans are helped by the truth and that Democrats have to rely on a lie.

Wait a minute! That's not ironic!

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

The winner will have to pull 2 of these 3.

Most likely but not necessarily. Either Bush can win NM and OR together, or even more likely, he keeps NH and WV in his column and wins NM, he can do it. The key is WI, it would be a nice pickup.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

One thing I have noticed over the recent weeks is, look at the center of gravity for Bush and Kerry. The CG for Bush is more safe while for Kerry it is weak. The dynamics favor Bush at this point.

[Dales]

They are reliable but you have to remember that theirs are registered voter polls and as such will overstate Democrat support, but by a fairly predictable amount (2-5 points).

Connecticut just went through a Republican Governor having to resign in disgrace, so movement towards the Democrats is not surprising.

[Deb]

These polls scare me to death.

PS: Great to see you, D.

[Fenris6]

Problem is you *know* we need to win by a large margin, because the Democrats have deluded themselves into thinking they have a "right to cheat" this time around. We can't let them pull another Florida on us. The country won't survive a Kerry Administration.

[BlessedAmerican]

add me to your ping list please...I really enjoy all these 'comparison' polls...You are a one stop shop! God Bless..

[JLS]

Why should Kerry be hitting the panic button? He is about to get his:

1. VP naming bump

2. Convension bump

3. Olympic bump

Now maybe the VP naming will not give him a bump. Maybe he really is better off when not campaigning and he will get a negative convention bump. But even in that case the Olympics will knock his coverage down for two weeks giving him another out of the limelight bump.

[Cableguy]

Great work! I love your analysis. The best that I have seen on the web. And I read the Battleground analysis before reading your writeup, and you are right on with that too.

If I can just ask one question: how does LA Times and CBS/NYT justify having so many more Democrats in their polling sample?

Please add me to your ping list. Thanks again.

[Robert Lomax]

Please add me to your ping list....

[comebacknewt]

Kerry is no friend of coal, no friend of guns, no friend of religion, and no friend of the military. That makes him a tough sale in WV.

W has a better than 50/50 shot at winning there again.

[Dales]

The LA Times tried to justify it, basically saying "we called them at random and that's how they self identified to us, so it is probably true." Which is nonsense.

CBS/NYT said basically the same thing, but to be honest, theirs is not out of the realm I think would be reasonable. I wrote my reasoning why on my blog.

[randog]

If I ever get polled, I'm going to say I'm a Republican voting for Nader.

I've gotten on some pollsters list for state political polls. I like to mix it up, too. You might not know this about me, but I'm a far-left believer in the death penalty (I'm anti-gay marriage, too).

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks, what a great bunch of information. I still think Michigan will go Kerry, but I hope not. I still believe that GWB will be reelected by a margin of at least ten per cent, and I think it's fair to say that most regard that as a pipe dream. Right now, the economy is improving, has been for a long while; gasoline prices are coming down; Iraq is in the Iraqi people's hands for the first time in decades; the US turned it over AHEAD of schedule; and Michael Moore (as the NY Times lamented, quoted in a thread around here) has churned out another propaganda piece -- and in my view has tipped the election in favor of Bush. MM will turn out to be the missing piece of the puzzle, regarded in the aftermath of the massive defeat of the so-called Democrats as the "Ralph Nader" of 2004.

George W. Bush will be reelected by a margin of at least ten per cent

posted to: Dales; AntiGuv; AuH2ORepublican; ambrose; BlessedAmerican; BoomerBob; byu-fan; Cableguy; Citizen of the Savage Nation; Coop; Corin Stormhands; comebacknewt; Deb; demlosers; FairOpinion; Fenris6; Flora McDonald; Galatians513; GottaLuvAkitas1; JLS; jla; jla; jla; Lunatic Fringe; Mudboy Slim; NautiNurse; Neets; narses; nevergiveup; Robert Lomax; ScottFromSpokane; So Cal Rocket; Sonar5; scan58; The G Man; Vigilanteman

[Koblenz]

Forget West Virginia. That place is a democrat stronghold, and I am AMAZED it went to Bush last year. Probably as a result of the good economy and Clinton fatigue. West Virginia will go to Kerry.

WV is no longer a bunch of coal union guys. There have been substantial gains in the Republican suburbs as well, especially distant suburbs of DC. People there commute to closer suburbs, not to DC.

The gun issue didn't help Gore, but it wasn't the only factor.

[Keith]

My question is...if terrorists hit us at Athens, who get the benefit? W saying"That's why we are at war" or Kerry "See, this is why Americans AREN'T safer around the world and if we had cooperated better with the Euroweenies, this wouldn't have happened."

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Ah, of course that explains it and also shows that each state has their own dynamic that can change the course of the election independent of other states, ie Bush can win PA but lose OH.

[Dolphy]

I'd like to be added to your ping list too, this is great work.

I am quite surprised that Michigan is a toss up, I would have guessed that Kerry would have come out with a lot more strength. I don't remember the 2000 history though and this may resemble what the Gore-Bush numbers looked like. The difference this time is that the former Republican governor here was a polarizing figure and probably helped the Dems motivate their voters. With that emotion out of the equation I'm not sure that Kerry's got the goods to create it on his own. The current Dem governor seems to get decent favorability ratings but as of now I see her as neutral in potential impact on the big race.