Skip to comments.Michigan State Representative Election Report - Part I
Posted on 07/24/2004 4:33:46 PM PDT by Dan from Michigan
Michigan's State Representative Districts.
GOP - 64
Dem - 45
District 1 Harper Woods, Grosse Pointes, Part of Detroit - Wayne County - Safe GOP.
Ed Gaffney is an incumbent, and the Cox/Posthumus avg percentage was 52.10% Its more GOP at the local level though. Gaffney won with 56.4% last time. The Pointes are Republican , Detroit solid dem, and Harper Woods leans dem. Two dems are running, CJ Harrison and one of the Lamar Lemmons.(there are three of them - Granfather, son, and Grandson)
Districts 2-12 are safe Democrat and Detroit based districts in Wayne County. These are 90%+ Democrat.
District 13 - Trenton, Wyandotte, Riverview, Southgate - Wayne County - Safe Democrat.
Wyandotte and Southgate are strongly Dem. Trenton leans dem. Riverview swings. The Granholm/Peters avg was 54.04% here and the incumbent is Democrat Barbara Farrah. Darrell Stasik is challenging her in a rematch. Farrah won with 64.72% last time.
District 14 - Open seat - Part of Allen Park - All of Ecorse, River Rouge, Lincoln Park, and Melvindale - Wayne County - Safe Democrat.
The Granholm/Peters avg is 60.36% here. Allen Park is a swing area, but the rest of the area is strongly dem, and Ecorse and River Rouge are 80% dem. Theresa Dombrowski is running for the Republicans and 5 democrats are running. The previous dem was Bill ONeil and he won with 73.96%
District 15 - Open Seat - Most of Dearborn. - Wayne County - Tossup
Gary Woronchak, a Republican who was unopposed in 02, currently holds the seat. He's term limited out. A dem held the spot before he did. Bush won Dearborn in 2000, and Granholm/Peters avg in 2002 was 50.98%. 7 dems and 7 Republicans are facing each other in a massive primary. Dearborn is about 1/3 Arab(although some of the most Arab parts are in a Detroit district).
District 16 - Pt. Allen Park, Pt Dearborn Hgts, Inkster, Garden City - Wayne Couny - Safe Dem
The most dem seat outside of the Detroit ones in Wayne County. Incumbent Dem Jim Plakas holds this seat and the Granholm/Peters Avg was 61.38. Inkster is about 88% dem and Garden City, and D Heights lean dem. Allen Park swings. Plakas got 74.89% last time. Jeffrey Lauster wants to try for the miracle.
District 17 - Open Seat - Pt Livonia, Part Redford, Part Dearborn Heights - Wayne County - Slightly dem lean, maybe tossup.
This is winnable with the right candidate. The dem won this last time with 49.72%. Dan Patenko quit this seat to become mayor of Dearborn Heights. Bob Brown(pro-2a dem) was the rep before Patenko, and the GOP held it before him. The Peters/Granholm Avg was 51.45%. Livonia leans GOP, and Redford and D. Heights lean dem (although local do better in all areas regardless of party). Darryl Husk is giving it his best shot for the GOP. Several dems are running.
District 18 - Westland - Wayne County - Safe dem
Westland is becoming more and more dem. Glenn Anderson is the incumbent who won with 70.16%. The Granholm/Peters avg was 55.99%. Kip Lipford was the 02 opponent and is facing Anderson in a rematch.
District 19 - Most of Livonia - Wayne County - Safe GOP
It's not impossible for the dems to do well in Livonia, but the GOP has had the advantage here in recent years and John Pastor won the open seat last election with 64.48%. The Posthumus/Cox avg was 55.99% and Posthumus got 53.94% despite Granholm being from next door in Northville. Joan Gebhardt(sounds like Gephardt) is running for the dems. This will likely be safe until its open..
District 20 - Wayne County's Northville, Northville Twp, Plymouth, P. Twp. Wayne - Wayne County - Safe GOP
Granholm's home. John Stewart is a liberal Republican who holds this seat. Mark Corriveau is the dem. The Posthumus/Cox avg is 54.74%. Wayne is solid dem. Northville solid GOP. Plymouth a little squishy. Stewart won with 61.22% over Mark Blackwell last time.
District 21 - Most of Canton, Van Buren, Belleville - Lean GOP
Phil LaJoy won here with 53.76% over Mark Slavens in a tough open seat race last time and is now the incumbent. Ralph Mayer is the dem. Cox/Posthumus avg was 52.19. Belleville is solid dem, and Van Buren is a strong dem lean. Canton leans GOP.
District 22 Taylor and Romulus Wayne County Safe Dem
Very strongly union with Metro Airport in this district. Ray Basham held this seat for years and his aide, Hoon-Yung Hopgood holds the seat now. He won last time over Ronald Vaughan with 69.39% Hes an incumbent and facing a primary against Chrystal Brooks and David Spilka. Fred Kalsic is running for the GOP. The Peters/Granholm avg was 60.72% and Posthumus ran well keeping Granholm under 60% in Taylor.
District 23 Brownstown, Flat Rock, Gibralter, Grosse Ile, Huron, Rockwood, Woodhaven, - Wayne County Tossup
Posthumus won this district, and the Posthumus/Cox avg was 50.97%. That said, Kathleen Law is a dem and won the open seat, but only with 49.46% and by 259 votes . Gore won Brownstown Rockwood, Woodhaven, and Flat Rock big (above 56%) but Posthumus kept Granholm under 53% there. Grosse Ile is solid GOP 63.87%. Granholm won Woodhaven only with 49.78%. Huron swings. Gore won it, but Posthumus won it with 54.89%. Same with Gibralter. Posthumus won there with 55.01%. This is one to watch and is also a key district for the presidential race. Bill Vollenweider is looking to win this tough downriver seat. Jones won Grosse Ile big, but lost the rest. Winning the areas Posthumus won will be big (although Gibralter is tougher since Law is from there).
District 24 - St. Clair Shores, Lake Twp, and Harrison Twp Macomb County slight GOP lean.
Posthumus/Cox avg here was 51.89% GOPs Jack Brandenberg won the open seat last time with 53.56, but a dem (Bill Callahan) held the seat for 6 years before that. Lake is 80% GOP, but only has 38 votes. Harrison Twp has a strong GOP lean, but St Clair Shores is about a 50/50 city. Brandenberg is a good guy and a strong incumbent. We should win here, but should expect a tough fight. Thomas Cornfield and Dan Foukes are running for the dems.
District 25 - Northern Warren and Southern Sterling Heights Macomb County Slight Dem lean The Posthumus/Cox average was 49.82% here and higher than the Granholm/Peters avg of 49.35% The GOP held this for 6 years, but the dems took it in 2002 under Steve Bieda who won with 56.74%. Bieda faces as primary with Marquis Dennings as well as primary free GOPer Michael Wiecek in a general. Bieda hasnt defended his seat before so well see what happens. While Warren leans strongly dem, Southern Warren is more dem than Northern Warren, and Sterling Heights is marginal GOP. This could be winnable if everything goes right. Id almost list it as tossup, but 57% is a solid win and this is more dem at the local level than state.
District 26 - Open Seat City of Royal Oak and Madison Heights Oakland County - Democrat Lean
This is an open seat and could be a sleeper. David Woodward is termed limited out for the dems and won last time with 60.55%. That said, Bush almost won Royal Oak in 2000, which is surprising with its liberal image. Madison Heights is more dem than Royal Oak though and makes it tougher to win. The Granholm/Peters avg was 52.09%. The GOP is running Carlo Ginotti. The dems have a primary with Marie Donigan and Paul Kubicek.
District 27 Ferndale, Huntington Woods, Pleasant Ridge, Berkley, Hazel Park, most of Oak Park Oakland County Safe Dem
This is an extremely liberal district in Gilda Jacobs country. The only winnable place here is Berkley which swings. The Granholm/Peters average is 66.04%. Hazel Park is working class dem. Pleasant Ridge(62% Granholm) and Huntington Woods(72% Granholm) are almost Ann Arbor levels of liberalism. Oak Park is 50% black. Ferndale is the gay capital of Michigan. Andy Meisner is the incumbent who won with 70.50%. William Axtell needs a miracle to win here. Maybe the district has had enough of Ferndale.
District 28 Southern Warren and Center Line Macomb County Safe Dem
I believe this district has been dem at least for 20 years and probably longer. The Granholm/Cox average was 56.85% and the area is more dem on the local level. Center Line is solid dem and Southern Warren leans strongly that way. Lisa Wojno is the incumbent who won her husband Pauls open seat with 67.27%. Timothy Knue is hoping for the miracle.
District 29 Auburn Hills and Pontiac Oakland County Safe Dem
Auburn Hills is erratic. It votes for a very conservative Republican in Tom McMillan and then votes for Gore and Granholm. Pontiac is not erratic. They vote dem to the tune of 80%. Clarence Phillips is the incumbent and won with 77%. Theres a three way GOP primary. It wont matter. The Granholm/Peters avg here was 72.52% and this is the 2nd most Democrat district in Oakland County.
District 30 Open Seat - Most of Sterling Heights and Utica Macomb County Leans GOP
Utica and Sterling Heights are both GOP leaning areas. The Roccas have held this seat for years, and Tory Rocca is trying to keep the family tradition going. The dems are running Roger Maceroni. The Posthumus/Cox average is 53.33%. Sal Rocca won with 62.40% last time. This could be similar somewhat to Woodwards Royal Oak district, but reversed.
District 31 Open Seat Pt of Fraser, Pt of Clinton Township, Mt Clemens Slight dem lean, possible tossup
Dem Paul Gieglehem won with 60.13%, but is termed out and this seat is open. Fraser and Clinton Township are swing areas, and Mt Clemens is strong dem. The Granholm/Cox avg here is only 51.3% despite Mt Clemens being 60% dem as Posthumus won in Clinton Twp and Fraser. The GOP has a three way primary between James Korona, William Morelli, and Diane Zotini. The dems are running Mark McVay and Fred Miller. If the GOP wants to strike one in the heart of Bonior country (Mt Clemens), this is the time to do so.
District 32 Armada Twp, Chesterfield Twp, Lenox Twp, Memphis, New Baltimore, Richmond, Richmond Twp, Columbus Twp, Ira Twp, Kimball Twp, Wales Twp Macomb and St Clair Counties Strongly GOP
The dems fought hard last time here, and they think they have a chance here, but if a Hertel lost here, then Im not expecting this to be as much of a contest as they thought. The Hertels are a strong political dem family in Macomb and Wayne Counties. Curtis Hertel is a former Speaker of the house. Dan Accavitti won convincingly over John J Hertel with 56.26%. Im not familiar with Michael Landiedel, but I can almost guarantee he is not a Hertel. The Cox/Postumus average was 56.3% Armada and Richmond Twp, are over 60% for Posthumus. Lenox, Memphis, New Baltimore, Richmond City and Chesterfield are closer, but Posthumus won there with over 52%. On the St Clair side, Columbus and Wales are GOP strongholds. Ira went with 55% for Posthumus. Kimball Twp is the only area Granholm won from this district and that was with 51.02%.
District 33 Part of Clinton Twp, Macomb Twp, Ray Twp Macomb County Safe GOP
Leon Drolet is very conservative with a strong libertarian streak. Macomb Twp and Ray Twp are GOP Strongholds. Clinton township swings. The Cox/Posthumus avg here was 57.27 and Drolet won with 60.17%.
District 34 Northern part of Flint Genesee County Safe Dem
This is a minority majority district and the Peters/Granholm Avg is 84.89% Thats all that needs to be said. Brenda Clack won with 87.59% in an open seat.
District 35 Lathrup Village, Part of Oak Park, Royal Oak Township(More like Detroit than Royal Oak), Southfield Oakland County Solid Dem
Another minority-majority district. Royal Oak Twp is 77% black. Southfield about 60%. Lathrup Village and Oak Park about ½. Paul Condino(white dem) won with 80.08% here after a tough primary, and the Granholm/Peters avg is 83.18%
District 36 Bruce Twp, Shelby Twp, Washington Twp Macomb County Safe GOP
The most GOP district in Macomb. 61.88% avg between Cox and Posthumus. Brian Palmer is the incumbent, a good guy, and a solid conservative who won with 67.36% last time.
District 37 Farmington and Farmington Hills Oakland County Slight dem lean and possible tossup.
A very erratic district. The Peters/Granholm avg was 50.42%. There are a LOT of squish republicans here who dont like guns and conservatives. They also voted for Rocky three times who is extremely conservative. The current rep is Aldo Vagnozzi who was Farmington Hills mayor for years and is about 80 years old. He lost to Rocky in 00 and won the open seat with 52.46 in 02. Hes also shown himself to be one of the most leftist reps in the state and I heard he wasnt as leftist as mayor. William Largent and Robert Stants are trying to replace Aldo. I think hes tough but beatable.
District 38 Lyon Township, Oakland part of Northville, Novi, Novi Twp, South Lyon, Walled Lake, Wixom Oakland County Safe GOP
The fourth most GOP district in Oakland County. Craig DeRoche is the incumbent and a solid conservative who won with 65.05%. The Posthumus/Cox avg is 59.30%. Walled Lake swings and the rest of the district all votes heavily GOP, especially fast growing Lyon Twp which went 63.37% for Posthumus.
District 39 - Open Seat - Part of West Bloomfield Township and Commerce Township Oakland County - Tossup
Very erratic. The Granholm/Peters avg is 51.57% Commerce is solid GOP(58.24% for Posthumus). West Bloomfield (heavily Jewish) is another story. They voted for Republican Joe Knollenberg three times in a row. They also gave Granholm a 59% win and a 56% win for Gore. Popular incumbent Marc Shulman is a republican and termed limited out. In 02 he won with 60.75% of the vote. He was generally conservative for the district. His wife Lois Shulman is running to replace him. David Law, Olga Meyer, and Debbie Squires are running for the GOP as well. Michael Schwartz is running for the dems. Hes a former law partner of our good buddy Geoffrey Fieger.
District 40 Birmingham, Bloomfield Twp, Bloomfield Hills, Keego Harbor, Southfield Twp, Orchard Lake, Sylvan Lake Oakland County GOP unopposed.
Shelley Goodman Taub is the incumbent and is unopposed. 57.78% Posthumus/Cox avg.
District 41 Open Seat - Clawson, Troy Oakland County Safe GOP
Clawson is a swing area, but Troy is solidly Republican. Cox/Posthumus avg is 57.47% John Pappageorge won with 65.76% Four Republicans are running Former Rep Bob Gosselin is a staunch conservative. The others are Martin Knollenberg (Joes son), Mike Bosnic, and Kathleen OLaughlin. Jim Blundo is the dem.
District 42 Roseville, Eastpointe, part of Fraser Macomb County - Safe Dem
The 2nd most dem district in Macomb. Roseville and Eastpointe are solid dem. Fraser swings. The Granholm/Peters avg is 56.31 and Posthumus ran well here compared to 2000 Bush. Frank Acciviatti is the dem incumbent and won with 64.85% over Jim Riske. The GOP is running Greg Fleming and Edward Place.
District 43 Lake Angeleus, Waterford, Part of West Bloomfield Leans GOP.
The dems always think they can win Waterfords state rep seat, which is a blue-collar socially conservative suburb. They havent won there yet and ran an A-team candidate last time in Betty Fortino for a open seat. She lost to Fran Amos who is now the incumbent. Amos won with 52.92% and won all areas. The dems are running James Whitacker and Scott Hudson this time.
District 44 - Clarkston, Highland, Independence, Springfield, White Lake Oakland County Safe GOP
All those areas are 56%+ GOP, and many over 60%. 62.54% was the Cox/Posthumus avg. John Stakoe is the incumbent and won with 70% last time. Hes facing Bill Scrase this time.
District 45 - Oakland, Rochester, Rochester Hills Oakland County Safe GOP
The Cox/Posthumus avg was 60.69%. Oakland Twp is one of the most GOP areas in SE Michigan. Rochester/Rochester Hills are strongholds. John Garfield is the incumbent and won last time with 68.73% Thomas Werth is challenging for the dems.
District 46 Open Seat - Addison, Brandon, Groveland, Holly, Orion, Oxford, Rose Oakland County Safe GOP.
Cox/Posthumus avg was 61.50%. Only Holly is competitive for the dems. The other areas are all GOP exurbs mostly 60%+ GOP. Ruth Johnson won last time with 70.88% and is termed out. The dems are running Daniel Myslakowski. The GOP is running Roger Deaton, Warren Lucas, James Marleau, and Gary Warner.
District 47 - Cohoctah, Conway, Deerfield, Hamburg, Handy (Fowlerville), Hartland, Howell City, Howell Twp, Iosco, Putnam (Pinckney), Tyrone Unadilla Livingston County Safe GOP
My current district. Cox/Posthumus avg 63.55% Joe Hune won the open seat last time with 68.85 over the paper endorsed Matt McGivney, who ran a decent campaign for a dem considering the resources he had. The only two competitive areas in this district are Putnam and Unadilla which sometimes will elect a local dem. Bush won them both, as did Posthumus. The rest are GOP strongholds, and even stronger if a blue collar rural GOPer runs there. The dems are running Edmund Senkowski from either Putnam or Hamburg. Edmund is a Ferris State University Dem ..in Big Rapids about 140 miles away from the district. I think the dems were begging anyone who wouldnt hurt their image to run.
District 48 - Part Clayton, Clio, Flushing City, Flushing Twp, Forest, Montrose City, Montrose Twp, Mount Morris City, Mt. Morris Twp, Thetford, Vienna) Genesee County - Safe Dem
John Gleason won with 69.20% last time. Flushing, Clayton, and Forest are competitive, but thats about it, and Gleason is from Flushing. Mt Morris is a bigtime stronghold, and the rest are reliably dem unless its a landslide. Granholm/Peters avg is 57.20% with Cherry being from Clio. Donald Wenk is taking on Gleason.
District 49 - Part Clayton, Part Flint City, Flint Twp, Gaines, Swartz Creek Genesee County - Safe Dem
A Flint based district. Thats all that needs to be said. Granholm/Peters avg is 63.10% Jack Minore won with 69.30% last time and is termed out. The dems are running Jim Ananich, Lee Gonzales, and Matt Schlinker. Dan Parks is running for the GOP.
District 50 - Burton, Davison City, Davison Twp, Genesee, Richfield Twp Genesee County - Safe Dem
Michael Moores old stomping grounds of Davison is here. Davison is actually sometimes competitive. Burton and Genesee Twp though are dem strongholds, and Richfield is reliable dem. Paula Zelenko is the incumbent and won last time with 67.80. Fred Fortner is running for the GOP. Peters/Granholm avg is 56.04%
District 51 - Argentine, Atlas, Fenton City, Fenton Twp, Grand Blanc City, G. Blanc Twp, Linden, Mundy, - Genesee County - Leans GOP
This was one of the closest races in the entire state last time. David Robertson of Grand Blanc won with 49.93% and 506 votes over incumbent Pat Lockwood of Fenton in a redistricted district. Lockwood was a very strong opponent. Fenton Twp, Grand Blanc City, Atlas, and Argentine are strong GOP leaning areas. Fenton City, GB Twp, and Linden are more competitive. Mundy leans dem but can be competitive. Posthumus/Cox won with 53.84%. Steve Robinson and Vern Schultz are running for the dems. Both are from Grand Blanc so Fenton should be more GOP than last time for Robertson.
District 52 Open Seat - Pt. Ann Arbor, Most Ann Arbor Twp, Bridgewater, Dexter, Freedom, Lima, Lodi, Lyndon, Manchester, Northfield, Pt. Pittsfield, Saline City, Most Scio, Sharon, Sylvan, Webster Washtenaw County - Tossup
Before we all panic at the words Ann Arbor this is not a hopeless district. Gene DeRossett, a Republican holds this seat and is running for Congress instead this time. This is a very TOUGH district though and Granholm/Peters won it with 51.28% DeRossett was an incumbent from Manchester put into this district and won with 53.39% over Pam Byrnes, who is running again. Fran Brennan Pontoni and Phillip Zazove are also running for the dems. The GOP is running Alicia Ping and Joseph Yekulis. The part of Ann Arbor in this district isnt as bad as the rest of the City, but is still Democrat. Ann Arbor Twp and Scio are strong dem leans. Sylvan and Dexter are competitive as well as Manchester unless you are a local. The rest lean or are solid GOP.
District 53 - Most Ann Arbor, Pt. Ann Arbor Twp, Pt. Pittsfield, Pt. Scio Washtenaw County - Safe dem
Chris Kolb is your typical Ann Arbor liberal. He won this district with 78%. The Granholm/Peters avg was 72.47. Erik Sheagren is hoping for a miracle.
District 54 - Augusta, Salem, Superior, Ypsilanti, Ypsi Twp, - Washtenaw County Safe Dem
Ypsilanti, Ypsi Twp, and Superior are all democrat strongholds. Salem is solid GOP, but too small to compete. Ruth Ann Jamnick won here last time with 68.88%. The Peters/Granholm avg is 60.35. Jason Meyers is running for the GOP. The dems have a six way primary, but Alma Wheeler Smith will likely win it since shes a former state senator.
District 55 - Bedford, Dundee, Erie, Milan, Milan Twp, Petersburg, Summerfield, Whiteford, Milan, Most. Pittsfield, Saline Twp, York Monroe and Washtenaw Counties Slightly leans GOP
Matt Milosch had a tough race for an open seat against a very strong dem and won with 52.98% last time. The dems are running Kathy Angerer from Dundee. Pittsfield is a dem lean in Washtenaw. Saline and York lean GOP. In Monroe, everything is a fight, but Bedford leans GOP. Posthumus/Cox won the district with a 50.99% avg, but I think Gore won this district in 2000.
District 56 Open Seat - Ash, Berlin, Exeter,Frenchtown, Ida, La Salle, London, Luna Pier, Monroe City, Monroe Twp, Raisinville - Monroe County Tossup
One of the toughest seats we have to defend. Granholm/Peters won it with 50.28 and they lost the county (which Gore won). Randy Richardville is term limited and won here with 65.84% last time. Monroe City is the most populated spot here and a dem lean. Monroe Twp slightly leans dem. Frenchtown, London, and Luna Pier are also dem leans. The rest lean GOP. The GOP is running Yann Ianucci, Jason Kitts, John Manor, and Dean Patten. Jeff Andring and Herb Kehrl are the dems running.
District 57 Open Seat - Adrian, Adrian Twp, Blissfield, Clinton, Deerfield, Dover, Fairfield, Franklin, Hudson, Hudson twp, Macon, Madison, Medina, Morenci, Ogden, Palmyra, Raisin, Ridgeway, Riga, Rollin, rome, Seneca, Tecumseh, Tecumseh Twp, Woodstock Lenawee County Tossup
One of the toughest seats the dems have to defend. Posthumus/Cox won with 53.29% and Bish also won here. Doug Spade won last time with 69.42% He was a pro-2a dem who is term limited out. His relative (Brother?) Dudley Spade is running, as well as Kevin Molter for the dems. The GOP is running David Abraham, Judy Ackley, and Jeff Votzke. This was Tim Walbergs seat before Spades so its a socially conservative district. Adrian City is strongly dem, and Tecumseh City, Raisin, Morenci, Madison, Hudson City, Deerfield, Clinton, Cambridge are competitive. The rest is solid GOP.
District 58 All of Branch and Hillsdale Counties Safe GOP
Bruce Caswell is the incumbent. 59.61% Cox/Posthumus Avg. There is a slim to none chance for the dems to win in the area of one of the most famous conservative college in America.
District 59 - All St Joe County, Calvin, Jefferson, La Grange, Marcellus, Mason, Milton, Newberg, Ontwa, Penn, Pokagon, Porter, Volinia in Cass county. Safe GOP
Rick Shaffer won with 67.2% in the last race and is running again. The Cox/Posthumus avg was 59.6%.
District 60 Kalamazoo City, Pt Kalamazoo Twp, Cooper Twp Kalamazoo County - Safe Dem
The Granholm/Peters avg was 58.98% Kalamazoo City is over 60% dem, and Kalamazoo Twp leans strongly dem. Cooper leans GOP but isnt high in population. Alexander Lipsey is the incumbent and won with 64% Nick Fedesna and Laurence Hawthorne both want a shot at him.
District 61 - Alamo, pt Kalamazoo Twp, Oshtemo, Parchment, Portage, Prairie Ronde, Texas Kalamazoo County Leans GOP
Jacob Hoogendyk won last time with 56.52% over James Houston who wants a rematch. Hoogendyk has a primary to contend with as well with Jeff Ballard. The Cox/Posthumus avg here is 53.25%. Alamo, Prairie Ronde, and Texas are solid. Portage is the biggest city and marginal. Oshtemo and Parchment are battlegrounds. Kalamazoo County in general is becoming very tough for the GOP lately and this is one district we have to watch.
District 62 - Albion, Albion Twp, Athens, Battle Creek, Pt Bedford, Burlington, Clarence, Clarendon, Convis, Eckford, Fredonia, Homer, Lee, Leroy, Marengo, Sheridan, Springfield, Tekonsha Calhoun County Very slight GOP lean, possible Tossup
Mike Nofs is the incumbent and is being targeted heavily by the dems. He won with 53.19% last time over Ted Dearing and is facing Lynne Haley this time. Granholm/Peters avg was 50.98% so this is a swing district. Nofs has an advantage being from Battle Creek. Albion is small, but a dem stronghold at 70%. Springfields heavily dem, but under 1600 votes total. Bedford leans dem, as does Battle Creek. Nofs almost won Battle Creek last time though losing there by less than 125 votes in an open seat race. The other areas all lean GOP. Albion is what scares me being on the other side of the district and heavily minority. If they turn out, this could be trouble.
District 63 - Most Bedford, Emmett, Marshall, Marshall Twp, Newton, Pennfield, Brady, Charleston, Climax, Comstock, Galesburg, Pavilion, Richland, Ross, Schoolcraft, Wakeshma Kalamazoo and Calhoun Counties - Leans GOP
The Posthumus/Cox avg here was 52.76%. Lorence Wenke won the open seat last time with 56.52% but has a tough primary with former rep Jerry Vander Roest. James Geary is the dem this time. Wenke has a primary over his vote largely for a vote on FMA. This will be a tough primary, and there may be some defectors in the fall. I expect the GOP to win here though. Granholm overperformed in Kalamazoo County and there are many marginal areas in this district, but no dem strongholds. Bedford, Galesburg, Comstock, and possibly Marshall are swing areas.
District 64 Open Seat - Concord, Hanover, Jackson, Napoleon, Parma, Pulaski, Sandstone, Spring Arbor, Summit Slightly Leans GOP
Clark Bisbee is stepping down to run for congress. He won 2-1 here, but Posthumus/Cox avg here was 53.62%. Jackson City tilts strongly dem, but Posthumus and Bush both won the rest of this district. Summit Township has the most voters(more than Jackson) and tilts GOP. Parma can be squisky, but the rest here is solid. Concord is Ted Nugents home and votes accordingly. Spring Arbor is 66%+ GOP at the top of the ticket. The dems have a very strong candidate in Martin Griffin. I think his dad was a 20 year+ state rep out of Jackson City so hes from the right family. The GOP has a 3 way primary with Rick Baxter, Bob Ross, and Jon Tade Williams. This SHOULD go GOP, but I expect a fight.
District 65 Open Seat Brookfield, Eaton Rapids, Hamlin, Blackman, Columbia, Grass Lake, Henrietta, Leoni, Liberty, Norvell, Rives, Springport, Tompkins, Waterloo, Cambridge, - Jackson, Eaton, and Lenawee Counties Slightly Leans GOP
Posthumus/Cox Avg here was 53.14%. Theres been a lot of elections here the past few years. Mickey Mortimer is the incumbent and is termed out. He was a two term rep who ran for State Senate and lost in 02. Jerry Kratz won with 55.98% over Sharon Reinier(who is running for Nick Smiths open seat currently). Kratz passed away in office and a special election was held in 2003. Mortimer ran for his old seat against KENT Kratz, who was a democrat. Mortimer won with 51.24% on a very low turnout. The GOP has a 4 way primary here. David Elwell, Leslie Mortimer(Mickeys wife), Robert Rumler, and Ed Sharkey. The Dems are running Mike Simpson, who ran against Nick Smith for congress last time. Almost all of this district is in Jackson County. Cambridge (where I think Michigan Intl Speedway is) is the only county in Lenawee in the district. Its marginal GOP. Eaton Rapids has a slight dem lean with Brookfield going GOP and Hamlin marginal GOP. In Jackson, Leoni is slightly democrat at the top of the ticket(Jerry Kratz won it). The rest mostly leans GOP with Blackman Twp being a swing district. Rives is the only real strong GOP area though and it is fairly small.
District 66 - Brighton, Brighton Twp, Genoa, Green Oak, Marion, Oceola, Milford, - Livingston and Oakland Counties Safe GOP
This used to be my district. Its one of the most GOP areas in the state. Chris Ward is the incumbent and has a rematch with Jim Block who must be a glutton for punishment. Chris won with 72.78% last time in an open seat. He won his first race for Brighton Twp trustee at 18 years old. Hes still winning today. The Posthumus/Cox avg was 64.28%. Milford is the only part of Oakland in this district, the rest of it covers Livingston County. Chris is a political genius and a real good guy as well. I agree with him about 90% of the time and he ALWAYS gives me a straight answer. If I still lived there, Id vote for him again in a minute.
District 67 - Alaiedon, Aurelius, Bunker Hill, Delhi, Ingham, Pt Lansing, Leroy, Leslie, Leslie Twp, Locke, Mason, Onondaga, Stockbridge, Vevay, Wheatfield, White Oak, Williamston, Pt. Williamstown Township Ingham County Leans Dem
Granholm ran ahead of all dems in Ingham County due to state workers. The most dem parts of Ingham are in the other districts. Dianne Byrum won with 58.89% last time. Shes a heavyweight dem and a former state senator who came within 88 votes of beating Mike Rogers in the 2000 open seat for congress. The Granholm/Peters avg is only 52.82%, and that was with Granholm running 4% ahead of Gore in Ingham County overall. Beth Chandler is taking a shot a Byrum. South Lansing is a dem stronghold, but only part of it(south of Jolly Road and a small other part) is in this district. The rest of it is marginal with Delhi(Holt) and Mason having a slight dem lean. The rest slightly leans GOP most of the time. Byrum however runs well ahead of the ticket. This race is tough, but not impossible. I think well have a good shot though when Byrum is termed out.
District 68 Lansing City and Lansing Township Ingham County Safe Dem if Murph wins primary, leans dem if Robinson wins.
The Granholm/Peters avg was 64.6% Mike Murphy won with 69.74% last time despite the fact that I doubt 85% of the district knows who he is. Murphs invisible (And rumored to not live in the district) and hes got an INTERESTING primary race. Hes facing an It. Melissa Sue Robinson (Formerly: Charles Edward Staelens, Jr.). Mark Harm is running for the GOP. He seems like a nice guy from when Ive met him. I hope the it wins the primary. He just might be able to pull it off then. Mike Rogers actually won this district in 02 during his congressional race.
District 69 East Lansing, Meridian Township (Okemos and Haslett), Williamstown Township Safe dem
Granholm/Peters won the district with 59.23% This area elects some bad dems. Gretchen Whitmer is a two term incumbent who won with 62% last time. Shes the most leftist dem in the county (and extremely rich) at state rep. Shes pushing for a booze tax, voted against Vear, militantly pro-abort to the point of it being a religion, and from what Ive heard, isnt a very nice person either. Before her, was Laura Baird who was the worst gun grabber in the state. Williamstown Township has a strong GOP lean. Meridian Township is supposedly 50/50, but has a lot of RINOS(Granholm won with 59%, Gore 52%) East Lansing is the most dem city in Ingham County. Gore got 66%, Granholm 71%. Angela Lindsay is running for the GOP. I wish her the best.
District 70 - All Montcalm County, Belding, Easton, Ionia, Pt Ionia Twp, Keene, Orleans, Otisco. Montcalm and Ionia Counties Strongly leans, almost Safe GOP
Posthumus/Cox won here with 55.61%, but Im really worried about Montcalm County, particularly near Greenville. Im tempted to put this as safe, but that Electrolux plant closing in Greenville may cause some problems politically here if theres a throw the bums out mentality. Judy Emmons is the incumbent and won with 65.81% last time over Henry Sanchez who is running again. Ted Padgett and Howard Temerowski is also running.
District 71 Open Seat - All Eaton outside Brookfield, Eaton Rapids, Hamlin, Slight GOP Lean
This is a swing district that Granholm/Peters won with 50.29% Sue Tabor is term limited out. Were lucky though. Sheriff Rick Jones, the strongest candidate we can have, is running for her spot. Hes won countywide and has high name ID. Ryan LaTourette is running for the Dems. I think well keep this seat for 6 more years, but Eaton is becoming tougher and tougher to win. The part of Lansing in Eaton County is extremely dem, even by Lansing standards. Delta Township is a swing area and the most populated area of the district. Charlotte, Windsor, and Grand Ledge also swing. A LOT of state workers here.
District72 - Caledonia, Cascade, Gaines, Kentwood Kent County Safe GOP
Every area here except Kentwood is 65%+ GOP. The Cox/Posthumus avg here was 69.39% Glenn Steil Jr. is the incumbent and is facing Thomas Burke. Steil won with 70%+ last time.
District 73 Open Seat - Algoma, Cannon, Cedar Springs, Courtland, Nelson, Oakfield, Plainfield, Rockford, Solon, Sparta, Spencer, Tyrone Kent County Safe GOP
The Cox/Posthumus Avg is 64.69% Incumbent Doug Hart is term limited out. Every area here went 57%+ for Posthumus. There is a five way primary race here between Brent Beuschel, Steve Grimm, Thomas Norton, Tom Pearce, and Amy Richey. The dem running is Frederick Clowney.
District 74 - Alpine, Grandville, Coopersville, Crockery, Georgetown, Polkton, Tallmadge, Wright Kent and Ottawa Counties Safe GOP
William Van Regenmorter won last time 4-1. The Cox/Posthumus avg was 73.65% This is the 2nd most GOP district in the state. Dawn Sloboda and James McDonald are having a primary for 2nd place.
District 75 Part of Grand Rapids Kent County Leans GOP
The Cox/Posthumus avg here is 53.48% Jerry Kooiman won last time with 54.64%. Hes facing Christopher Vogt. Grand Rapids is a swing city overall, and has a large minority population of both blacks and Mexicans.
District 76 Part of Grand Rapids Kent County Strongly Leans Dem
I almost want to put this at safe. Michael Sak won here with 61.99%, but the Granholm/Peters avg was 53.06, less than the previous district. Sak is much more liberal than Steve Pestka (who was to the right of RINOS), who the last dem was. Holly Zuidema is running for the GOP here in what may be a sleeper if she is a good candidate and we have a good year.
District 77 Open Seat - Byron and Wyoming Kent County - Safe GOP
Posthumus/Cox had a 65.76% here. Byron is over 75% GOP and Wyoming 60%. Joanne Voorhees is termed out. The primary is between Kevin Green and Kent Vanderwood. Albert Abbassee is the dem candidate.
District 78 - Baroda, Berrien, Bertrand, Buchanan, Buchanan Twp, Chikaming, Galien, New Buffalo, Niles, Niles Twp, Oronko, Pipestone, Three Oaks, Weesaw, Dowagiac, Howard, Silver Creek, Wayne Berrien and Cass Counties - Safe GOP
Neil Nitz won here with 58.17% last time in an open seat over Michael Gordon who wants a rematch. The Cox/Posthumus avg is 56.42% Bill Baber is taking Nitz on in a primary race. Gordon only won solid dem Dowagiac and slightly dem Niles and New Buffalo City. He even lost New Buffalo Twp which Granholm won.
District 79 Open Seat - Bainbridge, Benton Harbor, Benton Township, Bridgman, Coloma City, Coloma Township, Hagar, Lincoln, Royalton, Sodus, St. Joseph, St Joseph Twp, Watervliet, Watervliet Twp. Safe GOP
The Cox/Posthumus Avg was 59.13% Charles LaSata is termed out and won over 2-1 last time. Bill Wolf and John Proos IV are running for the GOP. Princella Tobias is running for the dems. Benton Harbor is 95% dem, but only has 2500 voters. Benton Township is over 65% dem but has 5000 voters. Those are heavily black areas. The rest of the district is solid GOP, most of it over 60%. Lincoln has 7300 voters at 66% GOP. St Joe City 4000 and township 5700 at 60% GOP a piece. The rural areas are all GOP as well. They more than balance out the Benton areas.
District 80 Open Seat - All Van Buren, Otsego, Otsego Twp, Watson Allegan and Van Buren Counties Slightly leans GOP.
Cox/Posthumus avg here was 52.35%. This isnt as GOP as the rest of West Michigan. Posthumus and Bush both won Van Buren County narrowly. Otsego and Otsego Twp are marginal GOP. Watson is a small solid GOP township. Mary Ann Middaugh is term limited out and the GOP has a four way primary. Steven Goforth, John Mike Henry, Larry King, and Tonya Schuitmaker. The dems are running Art Toy. If Covert votes and the dem parts of South Haven vote, there could be trouble.
District 81 Open Seat - Algonac, Berlin, Brockway, Casco, China, Clay, Clyde, Cotterville, East China, Emmett, Grant, Greenwood, Kencockee, Lynn, Marine City, Marysville, Memphis, Mussey, Port Huron Twp, Riley, St Clair City, St Clair Twp, Wales, Yale St Clair County - Leans GOP
Lauren Hager is termed out. The Posthumus/Cox avg here was 55.92%. St Clair County is a tough county for anyone, but its much easier for the GOP without Port Huron City. Pt Huron Twp and Marysville have a dem lean, but St Clair offsets that. The GOP is running Joe Alloway, Phillip Pavlov, and Steve Pray. The dems are running Mary Patterson.
District 82 Lapeer County Safe GOP
Lapeer is becoming a GOP stronghold. John Stahl won an open seat with 61.54% winning all but Marathon Township. Posthumus/Cox avg was 59.24%.
District 83 Open Seat - All Sanilac, Burtchville, Fort Gratiot, Port Huron City Strongly Leans GOP.
Steven Ehardt is termed out. The Cox/Posthumus avg is 55% The GOP has a 4 way primary between Steve Kearns, Dave Kredell, Paul Muxlow, and Mark Steinborn. The dems are running John Espinoza. Sanilac County is about 60% GOP with about 19000 voters. Burchville leans dem with 1700. Fort Gratiot Swings with 5000. Port Huron leans dem with 11000. Ehardt won even in Port Huron. Gore got 57% there. Granholm 54%.
District 84 Huron and Tuscola Counties Safe GOP
Possibly the most pro-2a district in the state. Tom Meyer is the incumbent and had a very tough race with Tuscola Sheriff Tom Kern(who was a pro-2a leader as a dem) He still won with 55% The Cox/Posthumus avg is 56.47 and John Kerry will bring down the dem ticket here. Tuscola is a very independent county (conservative, usually, but not always republican). Huron is a GOP stronghold. Curtis Boehmer is taking on Meyer in the primary. The winner gets to take on Steve Montle.
District 85 Open Seat - All Shiawassee, Bath, Ovid, Victor Shiawassee and Clinton Counties TOSSUP
Larry Julian won this seat by about 100 votes back in 98. Hes termed out. The dems held this seat for years before him. The Cox/Posthumus avg was 51.73%. Bush won Shiawasee with 49%, and Posthumus won it with 51.53%. Posthumus lost Bath and Victor townships(state workers), but won Ovid. Bush won all three of them. Bath is becoming harder to win, since many MSU students are now living there just outside of East Lansing City Limits. All of the areas are marginal either way. There are 3 way primaries on each side. The GOP has Dr. Richard Ball, Avery Weaver, and Diane Carey. The dems are running pro-life but anti-gunner Tom Ford (He ran for state senate when that state senate seat included Livingston), Mike Powers, and Rosemary Reed. Ford was a Catholic school teacher. Reed won the dem primary for that seat but was crushed in the special election by Garcia in all three counties. Reed was also a no show at a debate.
District 86.-Open Seat - Pt Grand Rapids, Ada, Bowne, East Grand Rapids, Grand Rapids Twp, Grattan, Lowell, Lowell Twp, Vergennes, Walker Kent County Safe GOP
Cox/Posthumus avg is 64.69%. James Koetje is term limited out. All of the areas here are solid GOP. The dems are running James Turner. The GOP has a four way primary. Joel Bush, Wayne Creelman, Bob Eleveld, and Dave Hildenbrand are running. Hildenbrand I believe was Posthumus chief of staff.
District 87 - All Barry, Berlin, Boston, Campbell, Danby, Pt Ionia Twp, Lyons, North Plains, Odessa, Portland, Portand Twp, Ronald, Sebewa, - Barry and Ionia Counties Safe GOP
The Cox/Posthumus avg is 59.1% here. Gary Newell is the incumbent and won every township and city here except one split precinct in Ionia. That was in an open seat. Hes facing David Brinkert.
District 88 - Allegan, Allegan Twp, Casco, Cheshire, Clyde, Dorr, Fennville, Fillmore, Ganges, Gunplain, Heath, Pt. Holland, Hopkins, Lakeshore, Lee, Leighton, Manlius, Martin, Monterey, Overisel, Plainwell, Salem, Saugatuck, Saugatuck Twp, pt South Haven, Trowbridge, Valley, Wayland, Wayland Twp.- Allegan County Safe GOP
The Cox/Posthumus avg was 64.89% here. Fulton Sheen is the incumbent and won by more than 2-1 in a complete sweep (Including liberal Saugatuck) of an open seat over Marty Jo Fleser, who must be a glutton for punishment since theres going to be a rematch.
District 89 - Allendale, Ferrysburg, Grand Haven, Grand Haven Twp, Olive, Park, Port Sheldon, Robinson, Spring Lake, - Ottawa County Safe GOP
The Cox/Posthumus Avg here was 65.51% Ottawa County is the most GOP county in Michigan. Only Grand Haven City(51.18%) and Spring Lake(58.80%) in this district was under 60% for Posthumus. The rest were between 60-70%, except Olive Twp .which was 83.16%, and thats not the most GOP part of the county. Barb Vanderveen won 3-1 over Becky Arenas and is the incumbent. Shes facing a primary against Michael Hewitt and the winner gets a rematch against Arenas who must be a glutton for punishment like Fleser and Jim Block.
District 90 - Blendon, Pt Holland, Holland Twp, Hudsonville, Jamestown, Zeeland, Zeeland Twp Ottawa County Safe GOP
The most GOP state rep district in the state. The Cox/Posthumus Avg was 76.23% Bill Huizenga is the incumbent and is facing Jo Bartlett. Huizenga won almost 5-1 last time. Blendon, Zeeland, Zeeland Twp, Hudsonville, and Jamestown are all over 80% GOP. Jamestown went 89.15% for Posthumus. Holland and Holland Twp are the more liberal areas here only going 60.20 and 72.52% for him.
District 91 - Chester, Blue Lake, Casnovia, Cedar Creek, Dalton, Egelston, Fruitport, Holton, Montague, Montague twp, Moorland, Norton Shores, Raveena, Roosevelt Park, Sullivan, White River, Whitehall, Whitehall twp Muskegon and Ottawa County Tossup
If you are in West Michigan, David Farhat needs your help. This is probably our toughest defense in West Michigan. Farhat won an open seat with 50.75% over Nancy Frye who wants a rematch. Granholm/Peters avg was 49.83 and slightly higher than Cox/Posthumus. Chester Township is the part of Ottawa in the district, the rest is all in Muskegon County. Farhat last time won Casnovia(by 250), Fruitport(by 500 his home), Moorland (by 50), Norton Shores(by 600), Raveena(by 250), and Chester(by 300) Frye won Blue Lake(by 60), Cedar Creek(by 100), Dalton(by 150), Egelston(by 250), Holton (by 150 her home), Montague(by 150), Montague Twp(By 50), Roosevelt Park (by 140), Sullivan(by 70), White River(by 80), and Whitehall(by 260), White Hall Twp (by 60). The dems are targeting this one heavily. Muskegon County is heavily union.
District 92 Open Seat - Fruitland, Laketon, Muskegon, Muskegon Heights, Muskegon Twp, North Muskegon Muskegon County Safe dem.
Julie Dennis is term limited out and won 2-1 last time. Thank God shes gone. You cant get much worse. Unfortunatly, the Granholm/Peters avg here was 63.21% so this is an extremely difficult seat to win. Fruitland is winnable and North Muskegon is solid GOP. Laketon is a slight dem lean. The problem though are the three Muskegons. The Twp went 57.74% for Granholm. Muskegon City (I think about ½ minority) went 69.22% for Granholm. Muskegon Heights (90% black) went 92.78% for Granholm. Bob Cutler is running for the GOP. The dems have a four way primary between Doug Bennett, Marcia Hovey-Wright, Tim Michalski, and Pat Shafer.
District 93 - All of Clinton outside Bath, Ovid, and Victor, Gratiot county Safe GOP
Scott Hummell is the incumbent and won 2-1 last time. Hes facing Monica Birchman this time. The Posthumus/Cox avg was 55.62% Clinton County went squishly last time at the top of the ticket (53%) because of state workers largely going to Granholm, but thats not a factor as much this time. Bush got 56% in Clinton county. Gratiot County is solid GOP.
District 94 Open Seat - Albee, Birch Run, Blumfield, Chesaning, Frakenmuth, Frakenmuth Twp, James, Maple Grove, Saginaw Twp, St Charles, Swan Creek, Taymouth, Thomas Saginaw County Leans GOP
This one worries me a little. Theres a strong local conservative democrat tradition in Saginaw County (Think Dems for the working man) so the GOP numbers may be a little inflated since Posthumus did well in this district. Jim Howell is term limited out and won with 57% last time. Posthumus/Cox avg was 54.24. There is no primary here. Braun won only Maple Grove. Frankenmuth is a small, but 70%+ GOP stronghold known nationwide for Bavarians, Chicken dinners, and Christmas decorations. The GOP is running Roger Kahn and the dems are running Timothy Muter. I dont know anything about those two. Gore won Albee by 213, Chesaning by 136, Maple Grove by 81, St Charles by 14, Taymouth by 163, Bush won Birch Run by 86, Blumfield by 466, Frankenmuth by 1283, Frankenmuth Twp by 655, James by 81, Saginaw Twp by 1376, Swan Creek by 240, and Thomas by 1011. This district (albeit pre-redistricting) went Dem before Howell won it, but I think its starting to shift locally as well.
District 95 - Bridgeport, Buena Vista, Saginaw City, Spaulding Saginaw County - Safe Dem
The other Saginaw based district is solid dem. Carl Williams is the incumbent and won almost 3-1. The Granholm/Peters avg was 69.92%. All these areas are strongly dem and union areas that also have a large black population. Buena Vista and Saginaw are only ½ minority. Bridgeport and Spaulding are also dem.
District 96 Open Seat - Auburn, Bangor, Bay City, Beaver, Essexville, Frankenlust, Hampton, Merritt, Pt Midland, Monitor, Portsmouth, Williams Bay County Strongly dem lean.
Bay County drives me nuts. This should be ours but victories here are rare(Joel Gougeon pulled it off though so its not impossible). A lot of pro-gun, pro-life Reagan Democrats are here. I think the GOP may be contesting this race. Two GOPers that filed have dropped out of the nomination race leaving Steven Goss as the nominee. The dems have a three way primary with Michael Lutz, Kenneth Malkin, and Jeff Mayes. This is a tough area to crack though, as the Granholm/Peters Avg was 55.63% with Posthumus overperforming here. If the dem is a social liberal, and if Goss is a social conservative with a bit of a populist streak, we may have an upset. The time is now though since theres no incumbent. Frankenlust is like Frankenmuth in its politics. Posthumus won Beaver, Auburn, Merrit, Monitor (Barely) Williams, and the Part of Midland in this district. Granholm won Bangor, Bay City(we need to make inroads there), Essexville, Hampton, and Portsmouth.
District 97 All of Arenac, Clare, and Gladwin - Fraser, Garfield, Gibson, Kawkawlin, Mount Forest, Pinconning, Pinconning Twp. Arenac, Clare, Gladwin, and Bay Counties - Slight dem lean, possible Tossup.
Jennifer Elkins is the incumbent and won with 50.59% last time over David Coker. The Granholm/Peters avg is 50.7%. Tim Moore is running for the GOP this time. This is another Reagan Democrats district, but not quite as union as the Bay City based one. Gladwin went for Bush and Posthumus. Clare is winnable with the right candidate. Arenac is marginal Dem. If Tim Moore works hard and smart, he can win.
District 98 - Homer, Ingersoll, Midland, Midland Twp, Mount Haley, Brady, Brant, Carrollton, Carrollton Twp, Chapin, Fremont, Jonesfield, Kochville, Lakefield, Marion, Richland, Tittabawassee, Zilwaukee, Zil. Twp. Midland and Saginaw Counties Safe GOP
John Moolenaar won by 7000 votes last time and the Cox/Posthumus avg is 56.42%. Midland County is a GOP stronghold throughout the county. Zilwaukee and Carrollton are also the only Dem areas of Saginaw in the district. Stacy Jones is running for the dems.
District 99 Open Seat All Isabella County, Coleman, Edenville, Geneva, Greendale, Hope, Jasper, Jerome, Larkin, Lee, Lincoln, Mills, Porter, Warren Isabella and Midland Counties Leans GOP
Sandy Caul won big with 61% last time and is termed out. Bill Caul is her husband and is now running for the seat. He has a primary with Don Chiodo. The dems are running Sharon Stangle Tillman. 52.04% was the Cox/Posthumus average and the Gore and Granholm won Isabella County narrowly last time, due to liberal Mt Pleasant, the home of Central Michigan University. Theres a large Chippewa population here as well.
District 100 Open Seat - Lake, Newaygo, Oceana Counties Strongly Leans GOP
The Cox/Posthumus avg here was 55.89%. M. Pumford is termed out and theres a massive primary. The dems are running Ronald Griffin and Jeff Wrisley. The GOP has 6 people running. Mike Arcello, Paul Bigford, Gerald Dicks Jr, Mike Fuher, Goeff Hansen, and Marc Libants. Lake County is strongly democrat, but its small. Oceana leans GOP. Newaygo is solid GOP.
District 101 - Benzie, Leelanau, Manistee, Mason Counties Strongly Leans GOP.
David Palstrok won here with 54.25% last time in an open seat. Rick Gebhard (Scary name sounds like Dick Gephardt) is running for the dems this time. Benzie is a tough county and marginal GOP. Mason (Ludington area) went to Posthumus with 53%. Leelanau is a GOP stronghold. Manistee is a swing county, but is Palstroks home. We should be fine here.
District 102 Open Seat -- Mecosta, Osceola, Wexford Solid GOP
The Cox/Posthumus avg here is 58.14. This is Speaker Rick Johnsons seat and hes term limited out. Wexford and Osceola are both GOP strongholds, and Mecosta strongly leans GOP. Paul Challender lost over 2-1 to Rick Johnson last time and is running again for the open seat. Glutton for punishment. The GOP primary is a NINE way primary. Ron Blanchard, Darwin Booher, Linda Howard, Morris Langworthy Jr, Randy Maxwell, Ted Raven, Art Stevens, Jerrilynn Strong, and Greg Willis are all running for the GOP primary spot.
District 103 Open Seat - Iosco, Missaukee, Ogemaw, Roscommon Counties Tossup
Dale Sheltrown is the incumbent democrat and hes stepping down. He won with 57.98% but he had very strong crossover appeal. I know hes pro-2a. Posthumus/Cox avg is 52.19% The dems are running Joel Sheltrown who is related. The GOP has a 3 way primary. Ronald Bazuin, Bruce Rendon, and Susan Vick are running for the GOP. Missaukee County is the big key. Its the 2nd most GOP county in the state by percentage. In 2000, Bush got 65.79% here while winning by 2212. He lost the other three though, but all narrowly since Gore did not break 50% in any of them. He lost Roscommon by 243, Ogemaw by 190, and Iosco by 160. Posthumus won Roscommon, but lost Ogemaw and Iosco. If a Sheltrown wasnt running, Id predict a pickup. Even so, its not Dale, so Im calling this a toss-up.
District 104 Grand Traverse and Kalkaska Counties Safe GOP
Both counties are GOP strongholds. Cox/Posthumus Avg is 59.85% Howard Walker is the incumbent. Tom Karas is the challenger. Grand Traverse County is the base of North Michigans GOP.
District 105 - All Otsego, Antrim, and Charlevoix counties and all Cheboygan outside Koehler and Tuscarora Tossup if Ramsey Wins, Otherwise Safe GOP
This district should not be in play. The Cox/Posthumus average was 59.29% and Ken Bradstreet won with over 60% last time. Theres a two way Democrat Primary and a six way GOP primary. The dems are running Greg Dean(who I think may be a party switcher since he filed as a GOPer first) and Jim McKimmey). The GOP has Jack Apol, Kevin Elsenheimer, Jeff Garfield, Bonnie Nothoff, John Ramsey, and Craig Ryan. I dont know much about the candidates outside Ramsey except that Craig Ryan is Bradstreets aide. Ramsey has two strikes against him from the start. Ones obvious. Theres just too many questions about his daughters murder. I dont know if hes guilty or not. I dont know if hes covering up for another family member or not. The other one is that hes not from this district. Its only where his vacation home is, and hes active in the yacht club there. On the combination of those, and purely on a partisan base, I can not support him since if he wins, a democrat could beat him with massive crossover votes. Im thinking Rostenkowski in 1994.
District 106 All of Alcona, Alpena, Crawford, Montmorency, Oscoda, and Presque Isle counties Tossup
Matthew Gillard is the dem incumbent and won an open seat with 50.72% last time. Posthumus/Cox avg was 50.73% - Despite Posthumus getting trounced in Alpena county (Granholm 56.95%). Richard Fortier is running for the GOP against Gillard. Hes from Alpena. Thats a big positive since Gillard ran 2-1 there to win. Bush held Gore to 49% in Alpena. He also won Oscoda (55.21%), Montmorency(54.90%), Presque Isle(51.69%), Alcona(52.56%), and Crawford (52.56%) If the dems lose Alcona and Presque Isle, and get held to low numbers in Alpena then Gillard goes back into the private sector. Gillard doesnt have popular Andy Neumann bailing him out either this time on a State Senate race.
District 107 Open Seat - All of Chippewa, Emmet, Mackinac counties, Koehler and Tuscarora in Cheboygan County Strongly leans GOP.
Posthumus/Cox avg is 57.24. Scott Shakleton is termed limited out. Despite being an open seat, Im still tempted to almost put this as safe GOP since both GOP candidates are Yoopers. Emmet County (Petoskey to Mackinac City) is a GOP stronghold in NW Lower Michigan. Mackinac and Chippewa are marginal GOP counties, but less marginal when a yooper is on the ballot. The dems are running Gary McDowell. The GOP primary is between Walter North (Former State Senator), and Kenneth Keeley. If North wins the primary, move this to safe.
District 108 - Delta, Dickinson, and Menominee counties Slightly leans GOP
Incumbent Tom Casperson had possibly the biggest win in 2002. He won with 51.77% - against Congressman Bart Stupaks wife in an open seat held by a dem previously. Stupak was from Menominee, which is normally the most GOP of the three counties. That alone keeps me from putting this in tossup. The Cox/Posthumus avg was 49.63%, almost dead even. Dickinson leans GOP slightly. Delta is a swing county(Bush and Granholm won there) that used to be much more democrat. The dems are running Dennis Baldenelli of Kinsford (Dickinson) and Patrick Kennedy of Menomonee. That should be an advantage to Casperson since he gets crossover from Delta which is more populated.
District 109 All of Alger, Luce, Marquette, Schoolcraft counties except Powell Twp in Marquette Safe Dem
The most democrat area in the UP. Stephen Adamini is the incumbent and he won over 2-1. The Granholm/Peters Avg is 56.30% If the entire UP flips to GOP, this will be by far the last district to do so. Marquette is a dem stronghold, ESPECIALLY at the local level. Alger, Luce, and Schoolcraft are all swing counties. Luce more GOP, Alger and Schoolcraft more dem. David Kalterbach is running for the GOP.
District 110 Baraga, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Keewenaw, and Ontonagon Counties. Powell Twp in Marquette County. Safe Dem.
I think we can make a good run here once it opens up. The Granholm/Peters Avg is only 51.67%. Rich Brown is the incumbent and he won over 2-1 last time. Patricia Ashcraft is the challenger for the GOP. On a statewide level, Gogebic and Iron are the big dem counties here. Houghton and Keewenaw leans GOP. Ontonagon is erractic but leans our way. Baraga County swings, and Powell Twp is a dem area. If Gogebic and Iron cut their dem margins, or if the GOP take root in places like Baraga, this becomes a winnable district.
Good work and good analysis.
Superb analysis. I wish you could handicap TN's districts, but getting ahold of the data isn't exactly an easy task.
Michigan news ping.
District 38 Lyon Township, Oakland part of Northville, Novi, Novi Twp, South Lyon, Walled Lake, Wixom Oakland County Safe GOP
The fourth most GOP district in Oakland County. Craig DeRoche is the incumbent and a solid conservative who won with 65.05%. The Posthumus/Cox avg is 59.30%. Walled Lake swings and the rest of the district all votes heavily GOP, especially fast growing Lyon Twp which went 63.37% for Posthumus.
I'll add that South Lyon, maybe the fastest growing community in MI (thousands of new housing starts) actually has borders in three counties. Livingston County (the fastest growing in MI) Oakland County, and Washtenaw County (the bastion of academic liberalism in this state) and anyone driving around here who thinks the economy is troubled ought to look around. I'll add my township votes at a minumum 72% republican. There are no dems here. No yard signs or bumper stickers with dimwit insignia. To be sure they exist but they are are a distinct minority.
Comments from other areas of MI? Can Bush take this great state?
The part of South Lyon(by mailing address and school system) in Livingston County is "Green Oak Township". Part of Whitmore Lake is also in Green Oak, as well as Brighton.