Posted on 08/03/2004 7:02:20 AM PDT by veronica
BUSH BY A LANDSLIDE
A Yale economist, Ray Fair has constructed a model that predicts the outcome of presidential elections using economic data alone. The model’s predictive power? As good as that of any model and better than that of most.
What does the Fair model predict for 2004? Bush will win in a landslide, capturing more than 57 percent of the vote. To see for yourself, click here...
| Presidential Vote Equation |
| The following paper presents the November 1, 2002, update of the vote equation. No specification changes were made for this update from the previous update (in November 1998), which itself was unchanged from the update before that. The equation was simply reestimated using the latest data. This paper also contains the first prediction for 2004 using the 2002 update. November 2002 update paper and the November 1, 2002, prediction Compute your own prediction for 2004 using the 2002 update Predictions for 2004 using 2002 update: January 30, 2003, prediction April 25, 2003, prediction July 31, 2003, prediction October 31, 2003, prediction February 5, 2004, prediction April 29, 2004, prediction July 31, 2004, prediction Earlier update papers: 1982 1988 1990 1996 1998 Original paper: 1978 Non technical discussion: Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things (Chapters 1, 3, and 4) |
Don't worry... They'll whine no matter WHAT the margin is!
You're assuming that The Sheep even REMEMBER that we're a nation at war - you honestly think they'll turnoff "American Idol" long enough to care?
Just remember...if GWB handily wins the debates, the MSM will still say he lost them.
If OBL is captured, they'll tell you GWB had either nothing to do with it, or that the "timing" was political.
If the economy continues to surge, Dan Rather will say nothing about it, choosing instead to focus on "the 934th American war death in Iraq since the so-called 'mission accomplished.'"
Given the realities of our media/pop culture, I think a "landslide" win for Bush or any Republican for the rest of my lifetime is unlikely, although I remain cautiously optimistic he will win when all is said and done.
I think the attacks we've seen so far are just a warmup, and, unfortunately, I have no reason to believe GWB is going to deviate from his "new tone."
Feel better now? And we haven't even had our convention yet!!!
Its not American Idol I worry about, its the lamestream Media.
The polls are encouraging, Looking forward to the debates. Especially Cheney vs the pretty boy.
Now, THAT will be a popcorn-and-red-hots event!
I hope that GWB does at least as good against Lurch.
I think the attacks we've seen so far are just a warmup, and, unfortunately, I have no reason to believe GWB is going to deviate from his "new tone."
I just wish that once, the GOP would go smash-mouth on the Left; then they might stand a chance of winning the spiked-hair-thongs-and-baggy-pants generation.
I also think Bush will beat Lurch in the debates, he will come across as likable, confident, funny, and knowledgeable.
But poor little Edwards is going to get humiliated like Rummy does a reporter who asked a stupid question.
bttt for later
Many are. But many aren't. The useful idiot sort might be. But it's the organized factions that posed the 'militant' threat in the 60s/70s, and now the terrorist threat, today, if they ally themselves with Islamic terrorism, which essentially they already have.
I think there might well be something to fear from people aligned with the Kerry campaign when they lose in Nov. But I think that threat would be more of what we've already seen. And in the 70s, for example, there wasn't a 'homeland' (I still don't know what idiot came up with that) security. Then again, the leftwing 'mainstream', in their fading 'glory', might bend over to support such actions in the wake of a Bush landslide. So you might see apologies and complaints not in favor of the Kerry campaign, as now, but in favor of such groups or suspected action. I can't imagine what the NY Times and LA Times and Post and AP, and the alpha-b's, will invent. But I suspect they'll oppose and publicly ridicule efforts to prevent desperate losers from lashing out, violently.
It sounds like you are buying it.
Kerry is going to lose.
"Besides, if Bush does get 57% of the vote, he'll probably get over 350 EV, which would also be considered a landslide."
"The odds are about 20 to 1 that George W. Bush will defeat the presumptive Democratic nominee John Kerry this November."
Zogby is Muslim connected though.
Dang. That's quote of the day material. Brilliant stuff!
This logic is flawed. Kerry will get CA and no doubt get HI. Maybe MN, maybe OH.
Do not take your desires of the outcome of this race to be reality.
This is why I believe Bush wins big. Outside of the looney left, there is virtually no one who is for Kerry. They are simply not in favor of Bush. The lack of a reason to vote for someone will not inspire turnout. Turnout is what the JF'nK needs to win.
You are forgetting about the other side of the equation: the Pubbie candidate. Ford was a worthless idiot. Bush I had a bad economy and a tax hike to explain. DOle was a castaway. W is a strong leader more akin to Reagan (though not yet...). I think that with the election being about national defense and the war on terrorism, who vote for a pretend strong leader when you can vote for the real thing?
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