Posted on 08/03/2004 7:02:20 AM PDT by veronica
We should all pray this will be true. Not just because Bush will win but because it will give him a voter mandate, something that has been missing. It will give Bush the green light to "take care" of pending business in the Middle East. Then we will start seeing the political vampires slither back into their graves. A completely different landscape will emerge.
Under the conventional wisdom that the major party candidates get 40% no matter what, the election focuses on the middle 20% -- anything better than 55-45 is considered a landslide.
Besides, if Bush does get 57% of the vote, he'll probably get over 350 EV, which would also be considered a landslide.
I'd agree with the Electoral College rout being a landslide. I'm just not comfortable with the numbers; anything below 60% and the left will continue screaming that "Bush Has No Mandate!"
Willgetsome, I sense you Wontgetsome credibility with your prediction. W will not lose this election. Bill Clinton willssetothatsome.
A landslide of 57%? I've never heard it referred to as a landslide before.
Considering that the last three presidential elections didn’t have a single candidate with a simple majority, 57% would absolutely be a landslide of historical proportions.
Reagan only got 51% against Carter, and his 59% against Mondale was by all measures a huge landslide.
i want W to win by one electoral vote again... just to enrage the libs
Thnaks for the condensed version.
Interesting.
"Not sure if this will bear out this time with other concerns skewing the mindset of the electorate...."
Might, might not, but either way its a stick in the ribs to the liberals right now, and a constant pounding in doubt for their candidate is good for them.
I don't need an economist's model to tell me Bush will win by a good margin.
I just open by eyes and ears to the non-filtered, non-biased news and it's clear.
&&
But you and I -- and other Freepers -- keep ourselves informed. I shudder to think how many voters just make their decisions based on what Dan Rather or Wolf Blitzer or Al Franken tell them.
If Bush loses in November, I will be truly fearful because it will be the beginning of the end of our civilizaton. And I am not being melodramatic here. Kerry's reign would finish the job that Clinton began of destroying our ability to defend ourselves. The islamofascists would hereafter declare November 2 a sacred day of triumph.
Not to pee in your applesauce, but didn't America elect Clinton?
I hate threads like this. Not because of any one poster, but because I fear that overconfidence may cause some of us to become lax.
ALWAYS fight like you're ten points down.
Then Bush wins. I don't care what the national pundits say, but as an Ohioan I know that the state is too conservative to vote for Kerry. Outside of northeast Ohio (Cleveland), Bush has solid support.
Yes, but the good news is that number, as a percentage of population, is in constant decline.
That would be funny. On the other hand you cannot easily accuse your opponent of "stealing" the election if he wins by 10% of the vote
Even better would be to have it finish in a perfect tie, which would throw it to the sitting House of Reps, giving it to Bush.
I am never overconfident. Certainly not this year. I post this as an item of interest, one more thing to throw into the mix.
Presidential Vote Equation--July 31, 2004
The predictions of GROWTH, INFLATION, and GOODNEWS for the previous forecast from the US model (April 29, 2004) were 3.2 percent, 2.0 percent, and 3, respectively. The current predictions from the US model (July 31, 2004) are 2.7 percent, 2.1 percent, and 2, respectively. The current predictions are based on the NIPA data that were revised back to beginning of 2001. Given the revised data, there are only 2 good news quarters in the first 14 of the Bush administration: 2003:3 and 2004:1. The US model is not predicting that the current quarter (2004:3) will be a good news quarter, and so the total number of good news quarters is 2.
So the revised data and the economic predictions for 2004:3 from the US model show a slightly lower value for GROWTH, essentially the same value for INFLATION, and the value of GOODNEWS lowered from 3 to 2. These new economic values give a prediction of 57.48 percent of the two-party vote for President Bush rather than 58.74 percent before. This is, of course, still a large predicted share for President Bush, although 1.26 percentage points less than before.
Election night is going to be a nailbiter.
So, I predict a Bush landslide.
But I predicted one in 2000, too.
Oh, I agree with you. This could still go either way. Bush has to fight smart, do well in the debates, and get his message out in a way that resonates with voters. But I do think in the end, he'll win.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.