New Zogby Poll: Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43%

Zogby ^ | 8/15/04

[demlosers]

Does anyone know how a pollster determines who is a "likely voter" from a registered voter?

I've never seen an explainion or specific methodology from them. Do all pollsters use the same criteria to to determine likely voters, or does the criteria vary from pollster to pollster?

[HateBill]

“The two candidates are in a dead heat among self-identified members of the investor class . . . Not only has this group shrunk from almost half of all voters to only 31%, but Bush is now tied among a group he will need for victory.

That tells me everything I have to know about Zogby's poll. Are we really expected to believe that fully a third of people who "invested" now don't ("almost half" to 31% would be a third fewer "investors")? Even if people lost trust in the market and put their money *entirely* in government or corporate bonds, they would still be "investors." I suppose in Zogby's sample, a third has taken their money out of the market and put it in their mattress. (I could buy that a small percentage, say 5 or 10%, was so turned off by market losses and/or corporate shenanigans that they put their money in passbook savings accounts or their mattresses, but the idea that a third did is simply unbelievable.)

[RoseofTexas]

GAWD, I'm so sick of the bastard mediaWHORES, the EVIL RATS, HELLywood, the freakin POLLS, the anti-bush crap...ughhhhh!! November can't come to soon for me!

[Bombard]

All these polls are so much bunk. All are subjective based on each polling organizations methods. I still think that they all have a hard time taking into account the new tech that is involved in making contact with the public. Cell phones are hard to poll. Caller ID and answering machines eliminate other potential polling subjects. Try as they might the poll takers cannot hope to get a true sample of any voting population. Also the number of R vs D vs I to include in a polling sample is all dependent on the who is doing the polling. The real key is the turnout and who will do the voting. The polls can try but can never really tell turnout. Let us all wait till Nov. 2 to see who will win . A lot can happen between now and then.

[areafiftyone]

I have never in my life been polled. Not once.

[Sofa King]

I don't trust Zogby anymore. He has a bad habit of making predictions about how his own polls will turn out; his claim three months ago was not an isolated experience.

[RoseofTexas]

Thank you DrDeb for bring back some sanity into these BOGUS polls! The ULTIMATE poll is take in November!! Remember to vote twice...:)!

[RoseofTexas]

oops..take should read TAKEN! :)

[LS]

More of Zogby's BOGUS self-selecting internet poll. It's a disgrace that this is called a "poll."

[WalterSkinner]

I remember those polls. Reagan and Bush were finished. Great post.

[Diogenesis]

A broken clock has more accuracy than Zogby-the-Palestinian-Democrat.

[Ravi]

If Zogby is to be believed, we would have Senators Shaheen, Mondale and Strickland.

[Diogenesis]

You got that right.

Zogby is fraud, although beloved by murderous Palestinians (his bro thought the terror state up)
and terrorists and their Democrat dhimmis everywhere.

---

ZOGBY ERROR ANALYSIS [CLOSE LOOK AT ZOGBY "SAUCE" DATA ]

==============================
Actual NH Final Jan 27 -John Kerry 84,229 38% 13 Howard Dean 57,788 26%
Zogby NH Primary Tracking Poll Jan 25
Kerry 31% Dean 28% Clark 13% Edwards 12% Lieberman 9%
RESULT: Actual Diff: 12% (Kerry - Dean)

CONCLUSION Zogby Sauce 9% for Arafat support

==============================

Actual IOWA caucus 01/20/04 - Kerry 38, Edwards 32, Dean 18, Gephardt drops out
Zogby IOWA Poll for 01/18/04 - Kerry 24, Dean 23, Gephardt 19, Edwards 18.

CONCLUSION - ZOGBY off by 14% on Kerry --- Zogby Sauce 14% for Arafat support]

[areafiftyone]

Can I put Zogby Sauce on my pasta? ;-)

[Unicorn]

Last time I checked he's still an arab

[Nascardude]

This is what they're saying over at the Atlas Forum abuot this poll. The guy who goes by the user name "The Vorlon" is very VERY good at breaking down the internals of polls to say whether they are valid or not. But Zogby guards his internals so tight that all he could do was guestimate based on the info he had. Anyways here is what he said:



"http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=851

The self-discribed "worlds most accurate pollsters" has a new effort out for our consideration.

Bush's job approval went from -12 (44/56) to -5 (47/52) - a 7% improvement.

Zogby ask's his job approval question differently than other pollsters, so while the trend line is useful, the absolute value he finds is not directly comparable to other pollsters.

"Deserves to be re-elected" stays virtually the same at -10, versus -9 in his last poll.

Zogby finds that Kerry leads 49% to 31% among Independents.

Zogby guards his methodology in terms of weightings and other factors more tightly than Col Sanders guards his 11 different herbs & spices so I cannot offer any meaning comment on this poll.

---

A Zogby is always an adventure to try to figure out, but doing the best I can... I get the following....

He says Kerry leads among independants by 49 to 31, so independants must have 20% undecided, with undecideds at 6% for the entire sample, this implies Independants could be no more than about 20% of the sample (???)

Bush gets 86% of the GOP voters, while Kerry gets 79% of Dem voters (Both values a bit low versus other polls)

Kerry leads 54-37 in the blue States (+17)
Bush Leads 47/41 in the red states states (-6)

Since he sites 6% undecided in both Red and blue states (versus 7% in his 3 way result) I will assume he breakouts refer to the 2 way race.

With only 6% of the entire sample undecided, and 20% of independants undecided I can take a admittedly "wild guess" at party ID in this poll at:

47% Dem
34% GOP
19% Independants.

If his breakouts are actually on the 3 way race (Kerry 47/ Bush 43) then the party ID breakout would be:

Dem 41
GOP 34
Ind 25

which is a little more reasonable - I am thinking based on this his breakout MUST be the three way, because 47/34 is just plain LA Times silly.

Again, these party ID break outs are GUESSES... no warranty expressed or implied

A zogby poll is a leap of faith... you believe it, or you don't....

There is just not enough internal data to make an educated guess one way or the other"

[A CA Guy]

You should trust the Muslim Zogby to be fair during these times of war.

[Seajay]

With a name like JOHN Zogby, he is probably a Christian.
Another indicator is that he is of Lebanese descent (they are 1/3 christian - see PAUL Anka, Danny Thomas, Donna Shalala etc).The Moslem form of John is either Hassan or Hussein ... FYI

[A CA Guy]

I read Zogby is quite connected in a Muslim way.

[Kay]

Are you serious?