New Zogby Poll: Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43%

Zogby ^ | 8/15/04

[areafiftyone]

Released: August 15, 2004

Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43% In Multi-Candidate Race; Voters With Passports Give Kerry 58%-35% Edge; Candidates in Dead Heat Among Investors; New Zogby America Poll Reveals

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry is favored over President George W. Bush (47%-43%) among likely voters when Ralph Nader, Libertarian, Constitution and Green Party presidential candidates are factored into the 2004 presidential race, according to a new Zogby America poll. The telephone poll of 1011 likely voters was conducted Thursday through Saturday (August 12-14, 2004). Overall results have a margin of sampling error of +/-3.1.

Presidential Candidates %	Aug12-14
Democrat -John Kerry	47
Republican-George W. Bush	43
Independent-Ralph Nader	2
Libertarian-Michael Badnarik	1
Constitution-Michael Peroutka	.2
Green-David Cobb	.2
Other	.8
Undecided	7

The presidential ticket of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and North Carolina Senator John Edwards gained two points since the Democratic National convention over President George W. Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney and now leads by seven points (50%-43%).

Presidential Ticket %	Aug12-14	July 27-29	July 6-7
Kerry-Edwards	50	48	48
Bush-Cheney	43	43	46
Undecided	6	8	5

President Bush’s overall job performance rating moved up three points to 47%, with more than half of respondents continuing to express their disapproval.

George W. Bush	8/12-14	7/27-29	7/6-7	6/2-5	5/10-13
Approve	47	44	49	46	42
Disapprove	52	56	51	54	58
Undecided	1	0	0	0	0

The majority of respondents say that the country is headed on the wrong track (51%), while 42% feel the US is on the right track.

US Direction	8/12-14	7/27-29	7/6-7	6/2-5	5/ 10-13
Wrong	51	50	48	50	54
Right	42	41	47	44	40
Undecided	7	9	5	6	6

When asked if President Bush "deserves to be re-elected", 43% of likely voters responded positively, while the majority (53%) still says that it is "time for someone new."

George W. Bush	8/12-14	7/27-29	7/6-7	6/2-5	5/10-13
Re-Elect	43	42	43	43	42
Someone New	53	51	53	53	53
Undecided	4	7	4	5	6

As part of the Zogby-O’Leary Report Red and Blue States Monitor, in the Blues States, those won by former Vice-President Al Gore in the 2000 presidential election, Kerry receives 54% of support, as compared to Bush 37%. In the Red States, Bush is favored by 47%, while receives 41% support.

Presidential Ticket %	Blues States	Red States
Kerry	54	41
Bush	37	47
Undecided	6	6

Nearly one in three (31%) continue to identify jobs and the economy as the top issue facing the country, followed by the war on terrorism (19%); the war in Iraq (14%); health care (8%); and education (4%). * This month the war in Iraq stays as the fourth important issue

Pollster John Zogby: “Kerry leads in the Blue States by 17 (54%-37%) while Bush leads in the Red States by 6 (47%-41%). Good news for the President: he is back to attracting 86% of Republicans, while Kerry gets 79% of the Democrats. However, Kerry leads 49% to 31% among Independents.

“Among the majority who say the country is headed on the wrong track, Kerry leads 84% to 5%, while Bush has the right direction voters 86% to 8%. In 1996, Bill Clinton led Bob Dole over both groups.

“Kerry leads among all age groups except 30-49 year olds, where the two candidates are pretty much tied. Catholics give Kerry a 50%-37% edge – numbers more similar to Clinton’s leads in 1992 and 1996 than Al Gore’s 51% to 46% margin in 2000. Protestants are for Bush (57% to 33%), especially on the strength of the President’s 68% to 20% margin among Born Again Protestants.

“Voters with active passports prefer Kerry 58% to 35%, while those without a passport are for Bush 48% to 39%. Union voters give Kerry a 22 point advantage – 55% to 33%.

“The two candidates are in a dead heat among self-identified members of the investor class – Kerry 45% to Bush’s 44%. Bush won this group by double digits in 2000. Not only has this group shrunk from almost half of all voters to only 31%, but Bush is now tied among a group he will need for victory.

“Bush leads among men 46% to 43%, while Kerry leads among women 50% to 39%. Bush also leads among Northern Europeans 47% to 44% and Southern Europeans 52% to 47%. Kerry is ahead among Eastern Europeans 63% to 29%.

“Big city voters favor Kerry 58% to 36%, as do Suburban voters 49% to 41%, while small city voters are with Bush 52% to 38%. Bush leads Kerry among rural voters 42% to 39%.”

Zogby International conducted telephone interviews of 1011 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from Thursday, August 12 through Saturday, August 14. The margin of error is +/3.1 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

[ Click Here For Methodology ]

[demlosers]

Does anyone know how a pollster determines who is a "likely voter" from a registered voter?

I've never seen an explainion or specific methodology from them. Do all pollsters use the same criteria to to determine likely voters, or does the criteria vary from pollster to pollster?

[HateBill]

“The two candidates are in a dead heat among self-identified members of the investor class . . . Not only has this group shrunk from almost half of all voters to only 31%, but Bush is now tied among a group he will need for victory.

That tells me everything I have to know about Zogby's poll. Are we really expected to believe that fully a third of people who "invested" now don't ("almost half" to 31% would be a third fewer "investors")? Even if people lost trust in the market and put their money *entirely* in government or corporate bonds, they would still be "investors." I suppose in Zogby's sample, a third has taken their money out of the market and put it in their mattress. (I could buy that a small percentage, say 5 or 10%, was so turned off by market losses and/or corporate shenanigans that they put their money in passbook savings accounts or their mattresses, but the idea that a third did is simply unbelievable.)

[RoseofTexas]

GAWD, I'm so sick of the bastard mediaWHORES, the EVIL RATS, HELLywood, the freakin POLLS, the anti-bush crap...ughhhhh!! November can't come to soon for me!

[Bombard]

All these polls are so much bunk. All are subjective based on each polling organizations methods. I still think that they all have a hard time taking into account the new tech that is involved in making contact with the public. Cell phones are hard to poll. Caller ID and answering machines eliminate other potential polling subjects. Try as they might the poll takers cannot hope to get a true sample of any voting population. Also the number of R vs D vs I to include in a polling sample is all dependent on the who is doing the polling. The real key is the turnout and who will do the voting. The polls can try but can never really tell turnout. Let us all wait till Nov. 2 to see who will win . A lot can happen between now and then.

[areafiftyone]

I have never in my life been polled. Not once.

[Sofa King]

I don't trust Zogby anymore. He has a bad habit of making predictions about how his own polls will turn out; his claim three months ago was not an isolated experience.

[RoseofTexas]

Thank you DrDeb for bring back some sanity into these BOGUS polls! The ULTIMATE poll is take in November!! Remember to vote twice...:)!

[RoseofTexas]

oops..take should read TAKEN! :)

[LS]

More of Zogby's BOGUS self-selecting internet poll. It's a disgrace that this is called a "poll."

[WalterSkinner]

I remember those polls. Reagan and Bush were finished. Great post.

[Diogenesis]

A broken clock has more accuracy than Zogby-the-Palestinian-Democrat.

[Ravi]

If Zogby is to be believed, we would have Senators Shaheen, Mondale and Strickland.

[Diogenesis]

You got that right.

Zogby is fraud, although beloved by murderous Palestinians (his bro thought the terror state up)
and terrorists and their Democrat dhimmis everywhere.

---

ZOGBY ERROR ANALYSIS [CLOSE LOOK AT ZOGBY "SAUCE" DATA ]

==============================
Actual NH Final Jan 27 -John Kerry 84,229 38% 13 Howard Dean 57,788 26%
Zogby NH Primary Tracking Poll Jan 25
Kerry 31% Dean 28% Clark 13% Edwards 12% Lieberman 9%
RESULT: Actual Diff: 12% (Kerry - Dean)

CONCLUSION Zogby Sauce 9% for Arafat support

==============================

Actual IOWA caucus 01/20/04 - Kerry 38, Edwards 32, Dean 18, Gephardt drops out
Zogby IOWA Poll for 01/18/04 - Kerry 24, Dean 23, Gephardt 19, Edwards 18.

CONCLUSION - ZOGBY off by 14% on Kerry --- Zogby Sauce 14% for Arafat support]

[areafiftyone]

Can I put Zogby Sauce on my pasta? ;-)

[Unicorn]

Last time I checked he's still an arab

[Nascardude]

This is what they're saying over at the Atlas Forum abuot this poll. The guy who goes by the user name "The Vorlon" is very VERY good at breaking down the internals of polls to say whether they are valid or not. But Zogby guards his internals so tight that all he could do was guestimate based on the info he had. Anyways here is what he said:



"http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=851

The self-discribed "worlds most accurate pollsters" has a new effort out for our consideration.

Bush's job approval went from -12 (44/56) to -5 (47/52) - a 7% improvement.

Zogby ask's his job approval question differently than other pollsters, so while the trend line is useful, the absolute value he finds is not directly comparable to other pollsters.

"Deserves to be re-elected" stays virtually the same at -10, versus -9 in his last poll.

Zogby finds that Kerry leads 49% to 31% among Independents.

Zogby guards his methodology in terms of weightings and other factors more tightly than Col Sanders guards his 11 different herbs & spices so I cannot offer any meaning comment on this poll.

---

A Zogby is always an adventure to try to figure out, but doing the best I can... I get the following....

He says Kerry leads among independants by 49 to 31, so independants must have 20% undecided, with undecideds at 6% for the entire sample, this implies Independants could be no more than about 20% of the sample (???)

Bush gets 86% of the GOP voters, while Kerry gets 79% of Dem voters (Both values a bit low versus other polls)

Kerry leads 54-37 in the blue States (+17)
Bush Leads 47/41 in the red states states (-6)

Since he sites 6% undecided in both Red and blue states (versus 7% in his 3 way result) I will assume he breakouts refer to the 2 way race.

With only 6% of the entire sample undecided, and 20% of independants undecided I can take a admittedly "wild guess" at party ID in this poll at:

47% Dem
34% GOP
19% Independants.

If his breakouts are actually on the 3 way race (Kerry 47/ Bush 43) then the party ID breakout would be:

Dem 41
GOP 34
Ind 25

which is a little more reasonable - I am thinking based on this his breakout MUST be the three way, because 47/34 is just plain LA Times silly.

Again, these party ID break outs are GUESSES... no warranty expressed or implied

A zogby poll is a leap of faith... you believe it, or you don't....

There is just not enough internal data to make an educated guess one way or the other"

[A CA Guy]

You should trust the Muslim Zogby to be fair during these times of war.

[Seajay]

With a name like JOHN Zogby, he is probably a Christian.
Another indicator is that he is of Lebanese descent (they are 1/3 christian - see PAUL Anka, Danny Thomas, Donna Shalala etc).The Moslem form of John is either Hassan or Hussein ... FYI

[A CA Guy]

I read Zogby is quite connected in a Muslim way.

[Kay]

Are you serious?