Hurricane Frances : 2004-09-02 : Thursday Thread

N/A | 2004-09-02 | Patton@Bastogne

[Patton@Bastogne]

Free Republic Community:



Welcome to Friday's Hurricane Frances news-thread !

It looks like a Melbourne Landfall after all, once again (to Section9's worst fears) churning it's way North-West to clobber Kissimmee and Gainsville ...



Well ... I made the round-trip Wednesday evening from Tampa--Palm Bay--Tampa to get the kids safely stowed away at a Days Inn in Clearwater.

There was only light traffic on the Hwy-192 route between Melbourne and Kissimmee.

Just a little heavier for the I-4 traffic for the next 80 miles to Tampa Clearwater.



BTW. I was told by a Melbourne-Palm Bay Firefighter that shelters were few and far between, and some of dubious safety.

Also discovered a "very neat" item called PLYTOX (???) used to secure external Plywood sheets to Stucco windows.




EXCELLENT Hurricane Frances Websites:

HURRICANE ALLEY

U.S. Weather Observers












Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.



General George S. Patton Jr. Website




.

[CJ Wolf]

yep going to turn north soon. head out to sea.

[bd476]

Infrared Look at Hurricane Frances

[STARWISE]

Biting my nails just west of Lakeland, but if you had fried conch with a spritz of lime, I could be tempted to leave the my scary time perch: the security of my shower stall with my pooch and 4 birds .. ;-) I lost it all in Andrew .. and these summers since are getting progressively unbearable .. I think I shall wear purple and move to Maine. Stay safe .. could Frannie be starting to shear a bit on the northern edge?

Stay safe .. and PRAY FRANCES AWAY. The power of prayer is miraculous. God Bless us all in her path.

[bd476]

Hurricane FRANCES

000

WTNT31 KNHC 030552

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

2 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004

...FRANCES WEAKENS SLIGHTLY MORE ...STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH..LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF CAT ISLAND. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 310 MILES...495 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA LOWER EAST COAST.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/HR ...AND A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS MORNING...AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRANCES IS STILL A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE EYE OF FRANCES ON THE WEST SIDE OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND...AND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 20 INCHES. ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...24.7 N... 75.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[IYAAYAS]

Reporting in from Ft Lauderdale.

Very quiet here, my windows are open and there are cars passing on Rt1 only every 6 or 7 minutes. There are usually hundreds of cars per minute here at this time of night.

There is almost no wind or noise at all here. It's stunning, the bright, crisp, high clouds are flying across the sky, only with dead calm at the surface.

[ilgipper]

I just arrived back in Orlando, my flight was supposed to be tomorrow evening and it was cancelled this morning. I think MCO is closing at noon tomorrow at the latest. High winds will shut it down sooner.

As far as gas stations, I passed one near the airport that was open, and others all closed. Every single station near my house was out of gas, I had to drive around for a half hour to find a 7-11 open, and it was full of people at 3:00am.

[bd476]

Actually that sounds idyllic, if one wants to ignore any obvious "calm before the storm" implications. Can you hear any crickets tonight?

[bd476]

Infrared Image Update from NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division

[bd476]

Hurricane FRANCES

---

Public Advisory  

---

000
WTNT31 KNHC 030837
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004

...CENTER OF DANGEROUS FRANCES APPROACHING ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.  A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD
TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  76.0 WEST OR JUST EAST OF
ELEUTHERA ISLAND.  THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 285 MILES...460
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA LOWER EAST COAST.
 
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  9 MPH
...15 KM/HR...AND A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.
  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WHILE AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATES THAT FRANCES HAS
BECOME SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...IT IS STILL A STRONG CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.  ELEUTHERA HAS JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 81 MPH.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  954 MB...28.17 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE EYE OF FRANCES ON THE WEST SIDE OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND...AND
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.  STORM SURGE FLOODING OF
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 20 INCHES...
ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.
 
SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
 
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...24.9 N... 76.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN

[bd476]

Hurricane Frances Updated NOAA GOES Float Visual and Infrared Images

[FlJoePa]

Still seems to be a bit disorganized, but it has nothing but bath water ahead of it.

I know the ocean temp here in Jupiter is in the high 80's this time of year.

While certainly not out of the woods, I feel a bit better about things this morning. Just don't do anything stupid Frances!

[longtermmemmory]

Actually if this is our bad storm of the century it would be a good time to host.

However I have not hope for the "brains" in FL. They had a chance to host one of the final rounds of the Soccerworld cup which would have put miami in the global spotlight. INSTEAD they declined in favor of a run of the mill, poorly attended Marlins baseball game.

[FlJoePa]

The Marlins are averaging over 22,000, while not great, it is not "poor" either.

Not sure what you are talking about, since I don't follow soccer, but why should the World Champion Marlins move a home game while they are in a Wild Card race to accomodate some soccer game?

And where do you propose they should have moved their game to? Some little league field?

Finally, I think Miami is already in the "global spotlight" with or without hosting a soccer game.

[4everontheRight]

Latest from SC is that this storm could still move to the north more before hitting land per local Accuweather. I don't think we'll know where this storm wants to go until it hits!

[brothers4thID]

Yes I was very VERY happy to hear, this morning, that I was indeed wrong. The power of prayer over the power of pride any day!

I hope I continue to be wrong!

[killjoy]

The Friday thread is up. Please stop posting to this thread.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1206210/posts

[longtermmemmory]

It was during their lack luster time.

I do not follow soccer either. I am just saying that the once every four years world cup would have been a good PR chance for them. The world cup has more viewers and more money involved than some baseball game.

All water under the bridge now. I would IMAGINE if it happened again today they would have any number of venue possibilities for the soccer game.

[SpookBrat]

We are south of Jax too so I guess we're ok for now. We've got the radio on. Blessings to you.