Libyan Cooperation (Vanity)

self ^ | 09/02/04 | self

[demsux]

Vice President Cheney's speech last night seemed to contain some information, when pieced together, present an interesting possibility.

First he spoke of Iraq's prior use of WMD and the ability to make them.

After making some other points regarding Iraq, he pointed out something that happened approximately 5 weeks after the overthrow of the Hussein government in Iraq.

Namely, Libya agreed to dismantle "it's" nuclear program and submit to UN/US inspections.

There was much talk of Saddam moving his arsenel prior to the start of the war...most of the focus on Syria and Iran.

Might Saddam have moved these weapons to Libya for safekeeping? If so, did the US know about this arrangement.

Libya was under sanctions and there was virtually no intelligence leaked regarding Libyan nuclear ambitions.

It makes this writer think that W may have right about the Iraqi programmes and that pre-war intelligence was correct, however by the time the UN games were over, the programme was dismantled and moved.

Why W won't reveal this connection eludes me, unless there is no concrete paper trail between Iraq and Libya.

Then again, there's always the "October Surprise".

[UCANSEE2]

You got the feeling GWB has a card not played?

Me too. A card that kept the worst from happening. Another one of those cards best never shown.

[demsux]

Great to hear from you UCAN. Hope all is well.

[endthematrix]

"Libya was under sanctions..."

Yes. But so was Iraq. The USA was at every turn telling Russia and France to stop flying in and out. I'm sure EU (and CIA, Mossad) intel was working in Libya and would have known any Saddam movement of WMD there and leaked it. IIRC the working group behind Libya's WMD "coming out" was over year old. This wasn't an overnight affair, but seeing B-2 bombers over Baghdad sure made Qaddafi make up his mind quick!

[My2Cents]

My theory is that Libya itself will reveal pre-Iraq war cooperation with Saddam, not the Administration. It is coming, I believe.

[endthematrix]

"Why W won't reveal this connection eludes me"

If there was ever a reason, it would be to protect and insulate an allied Libya working to dismantle WMD from any detractors who want damage the President's credibility, via a leak.

[endthematrix]

My theory is that Libya is buying time....

Qaddafi doesn't require WMD for control of the country. Ending the program is just to get Uncle Sam from a first strike on his summer home. They'll (Libya) will still send advisers into remote African areas to convert the population to Islam and play one side against the other for any gain. They'll sell oil to the West, get some modern tech and infrastructure. It's a rebuilding phase...

[demsux]

Yes. But so was Iraq. The USA was at every turn telling Russia and France to stop flying in and out. I'm sure EU (and CIA, Mossad) intel was working in Libya and would have known any Saddam movement of WMD there and leaked it. IIRC the working group behind Libya's WMD "coming out" was over year old. This wasn't an overnight affair, but seeing B-2 bombers over Baghdad sure made Qaddafi make up his mind quick!

The mention of NUKES in Libya was pretty muted in my mind. I follow the ME pretty closely and Libya was not on anyone's A-List of proliferaters. Iraq, Iran and Syria were the only one's getting any attention.

How could Libya have developed this programme without the intelligence communities intimate knowledge...or why didn't the UN have IEAE inspectors on the ground.

Nope, I think Cheney was hoping that we could read between the lines.

As the previous poster pointed out, you don't want to "out your informant" and that may be why the secrecy and lack of media attention.

[jrpascucci]

Well, might have, to date been one of the 'silent battles' in WWIV, and I'm going to suggest that to reveal too much about it might have (or might still) compromise the sources&methods of some of our frIendS in the Region thAt wE reLy on.

Reports are (http://www.state.gov/t/us/rm/33556.htm) that there were several WMD shipments intercepted heading to Libya, as well as an important one containing centrifuges a few months before he caved in Iraq, US ships siezed a shipment of WMD parts to Libya. So it's not like it's been unheard of. Qadaffi made a call to Britain about a week before the war in Iraq to open negotiations.

I also recall a report (although I can't lay my hands on it) of finding diplomatic accords signed between an Iraqi and Libyan Foreign Ministers, about the trilateral exchange programs with N. Korea (Iraqi scientists, N. Korean Uranium Hexaflouride, based under a mountain in Libya).

Actually, searching for it, this news broke on FreeRepublic 7/11/04: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1169244/posts . The claim is the report is due out this month, so a 'September surprise' might make sense.

-J

[endthematrix]

Much of the nuclear tech came from Pak's Dr. Kahn, PRC and Russia. I'm sure the "minor league" players were connected too. The administration is quiet on Pakistan nuclear proliferation because it's a key to the WoT. IIRC those P-2 type centrifuges were the same out of Iran.

[endthematrix]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1206278/posts

"The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed El Baradei, is complicating U.S. efforts to pressure Iran into giving up its covert nuclear weapons program, according to U.S. officials."

[cdrw]

I no longer have the links but I recall that the Libyan weapons program included the participation of many (I seem to recall numbers in the hundreds) of Iraqi scientists.

It looks to me as if Saddam had outsourced much of the active portions of his programs in order to avoid the UN scrutiny and was maintaining an ability to bring them back in-house once the sanctions were lifted. This was my first thought when the Libyan story broke.

I would not be at all surprised if Kaddhafi essentially plea bargained with W and Blair. The good guys said we'll not bomb you into the stone ages (well they're kinda there already but ... never mind) if you come clean. Kaddhafi might then have said 'I will come clean if you allow me to do it honorably (as in not under direct threat which would challenge my manhood and standing in Arab / Muslim community)'. Good guys struck the deal and put an enormous dent in the collaborative "Muslim bomb" project. They avoided war, and they chose to take whatever political heat would result from the ambiguity of the deal. Both Blair and W have demonstrated clearly their willingness to sacrifice their personal political interests to get the right thing done.

[demsux]

bump for bigger audience