Posted on 09/16/2004 4:52:20 AM PDT by libtoken
Hurricane Jeanne Intermediate Advisory Number 11a
Statement as of 8:00 am AST on September 16, 2004
...Jeanne becomes a hurricane...the 6th of the 2004 season...near the eastern tip of Hispaniola...
a Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the eastern and northern coasts of the Dominican Republic from La Plata southward to Isla Saona.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect along the northern coast of the Dominican Republic from west of Puerto Plata westward to Monte Cristo. This area will likely be upgraded to a Hurricane Warning later this morning. A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remains in effect along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona westward to Santo Domingo. Tropical storm conditions are also likely along the north coast of Haiti.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the southeastern Bahamas... including the Acklins...Crooked Island...the Inaguas...Mayaguana... and the Ragged Islands...as well as for the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Jeanne.
Data from a reconnaissance plane and Doppler radar from Puerto Rico indicate that Jeanne has become a hurricane. At 8 am AST...1200z... the center of hurricane Jean was located near latitude 18.7 north ...Longitude 68.4 west...over the eastern tip of Hispaniola or Cabo engano in the Dominican Republic.
Jeanne is moving toward the west near 9 mph...15 km/hr. A gradual turn to the west-northwest is expected to for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph...130 km/hr... with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours as Jeanne hugs the north coast of the Dominican Republic. Cabo engano recently reported sustained winds of 56 mph...91 km/hr.
Hurricane force winds are confined to a small area near the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 40 miles...65 km from the center.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft recently measured a minimum central pressure of 985 mb...29.09 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected along the north coast of the Dominican Republic later this morning. Winds and seas will continue subsiding along the coastline of Puerto Rico during the day.
Rainfall accumulations of 9 to 13 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected over the Dominican Republic. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Several locations across Puerto Rico have already received more than a foot of rain...including the islands of Culebra and Vieques...with Naguabo in the eastern portion of the island having received more than 20 inches of rainfall. Additional rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches...locally higher...are still possible over Puerto Rico. Many rivers on Puerto Rico are already at or above flood stage.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.
Repeating the 8 am AST position...18.7 N... 68.4 W. Movement toward...west near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 80 mph. Minimum central pressure... 985 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 am AST.
Forecaster Avila
$$
Okay, so what is her projected path? Don't tell me that Florida is going to be hit again!
sw
Right now they have the southern tip of Florida in the projected path. But I think what I have heard is they are expecting this one to go a little further north. Carolina's again. And it isn't like they haven't had enough this year.
How funny these paths are, weather.com has it turning slightly north.
I have seen the storm in a couple of places referred to as "Javier". Jeanne makes more sense (if they switch from male to female names in order). Anybody know who sets the official name?
I believe 'Javier' is/was a Pacific storm. Different set of names.
"Javier" is out in the Pacific currently threatening the Mexican coast.
The Raleigh guy is using the latest path from the NHC. I think they are to be believed.
Dang, another hurricane...
I think this is God's way of telling Florida... "If you try to steal this election for Kerry, I've got locusts..."
Hurricane Jean strikes the Dominican Republic before the hurricane warning being issued
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/tropical_cyclones/tc04/ATL/11L.JEANNE/ssmi/vis1km/LATEST.jpg
Looks like Jeanne is headed due west. She may be history on that course with the mountains ahead.
Joe Bastardi from one of the weather prediction centers, said that Jeanne would most likely strike the U.S. mainland. He predicted it would hit the Florida peninsula and cross over into the Gulf Of Mexico, sending it towards New Orleans.
Doncha think that if power is out in FL during the election, they will have to revert to the dreaded "butterfly ballots."
"Javier" is an East Pacific Hurricane ... the EPac hurricanes get names from a separate list, and the masculine/feminine is opposite to the Atlantic Hurricanes. Furthermore, the masculine/feminine is reversed every year. IOW, next year's EPac "J" hurricane will be a feminine name and next year's Atlantic "J" hurricane will be a masculine name. The name lists come out of some official body in the sever storms forecasting community, and are prepared years in advance.
Wait a minute. . . Are you telling me BUSH KNEW!?!
Absolutely he knew! What's worse, he killed Kenny! The Bustard!
Does anyone know why it seems the Weather Channel does not seem to do much in the way of forcasting west coast or their hurricanes. Actually I have never seen a hurricane tracked on the west coast? Do they only cover the east here, and have another edition on the west?
here we go again..................
I would venture to say that, to the folks in Florida at least, any of those would be acceptable EXCEPT the GFDL model.
Hurricane Jeanne Advisory Number 12
Statement as of 11:00 am AST on September 16, 2004
...Hurricane Warning issued for southeastern Bahamas as Jeanne
scrapes the northern coast of the Dominican Republic...
At 11 am AST...1500z...the government of the Bahamas has issued a
Hurricane Warning for the southeastern Bahamas...including the
Acklins...Crooked Island...the Inaguas...Mayaguana...and the Ragged
Islands...as well as for the Turks and Caicos Islands.
At 11 am AST...the government of the Bahamas has also issued a
Hurricane Watch for the central Bahamas...including Cat
Island...the Exumas...Long Island...Rum Cay...and San Salvador.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect in the Dominican Republic from
Puerto Plata to Isla Saona.
At 11 am AST...a Tropical Storm Warning is issued for the north
coast of Haiti from le mole St Nicholas eastward. A Tropical Storm
Warning is now in effect along the north coast of Hispaniola from
le mole St Nicholas to west of Puerto Plata...and from Isla Saona
to Santo Domingo.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect along the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic from west of Puerto Plata westward to Monte
Cristo and along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from
Isla Saona westward to Santo Domingo.
Interests in the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of
Jeanne.
At 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Jeanne was located
near latitude 18.8 north...longitude 68.7 west or about 80 miles...
130 km...east-northeast of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic.
Jeanne is moving just north of due west near 7 mph
...11 km/hr. A west-northwestward motion is expected over the next
24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of Jeanne is expected
to remain near or just inland of the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic for much of the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Jean is expected to weaken to a tropical storm during the
next 24 hours as a result of its encounter with Hispaniola...but
should regain hurricane strength on Friday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles... 30 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 70 miles...110 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb...29.12 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
along the north coast of the Dominican Republic today. Winds and
seas will continue subsiding along the coastline of Puerto Rico
during the day.
Rainfall accumulations of 9 to 13 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected over the Dominican Republic. These rains
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Additional rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches...locally
higher...are possible over Puerto Rico.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic today.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...18.8 N... 68.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 7 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 80 mph. Minimum central pressure... 986 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 PM AST followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 PM AST.
Forecaster Franklin
Hey Pyro - have you seen this yet?
Yeah, I have been tracking her since she formed as a tropical depression. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic are getting slammed. Let's home the terrain take some of punch away.
Doesn't seem like it'll stop until it gets to Z. This has got to be one of the worst seasons for hurricanes. One after the other.
I use Intellicast.com for my tracking - of course I'm from Michigan, so we only get the remnants - thank the Lord!
I know you've been tracking her, just making sure you had seen the latest update.
I agree with you about the terrain.............but weren't they hoping for the same with Ivan at one point????
Yeah, but Jamaica got brushed by Ivan, and western Cuba got bypassed basically. Jeanne is actually over the Dominican Republic, and they have mountians there. From what the report says, she will weaken into a (strong) tropical storm, but then become a hurricane again tomorrow.
I must admit to one benefit of the very active hurricane season...my knowlege of geography, topography and meteorology has increased dramatically!!!!!
They typically will do a special on a west coast hurricane if it threatens Hawaii or other US interests in the Pacific. But since the Pacific hurricanes typically begin off of Mexico and head west, they are moving away from the US, and most folks (unless they are in Hawaii), wouldn't care anyway. Most Pacific hurricanes (typhoons) end up off of Japan or the Phillipines.
I bought 80+ acres on the other side of the Catalinas from Tucson earlier this year for a rather paltry sum (my car payment is more per month). I hope you are right, could be a windfall.
That would definitely be a windfall!!!! Good luck.
You think we'll be getting fall out from Ivan or this one???
Here in central PA they have just posted a flood warning for the weekend. We are to get rain tomorrow from a different front and then remnants of Ivan are to come and stall over us. Our ground is already really saturated and almost had a flooding problem last week from Frances - local river flood stage is 23 and it crested at 20. They are calling for 4 - 8" - if that happens, anything over 2" we will be having problems. How bout you?
Uh-Oh. Accuweather has Jeanne going thru my front door. But I heard on the radio a little while ago that Jeanne most likely will veer north missing the Florida peninsula. I just bought myself 24 cans of octopus (pulpo). I'll probably finish them all off by Friday night but if it looks like Jeanne is coming this way, I'll buy 100 cans of pulpo. BEST canned food I ever ate. INCREDIBLE STUFF. I'll be making cerviche out of it later today.
The tallest mountain in the Caribbean is in Santo Domingo. Pico Duarte. About 10,000 feet. Sometimes it even snows there! Someday I want to climb it.
That's the one we got yesterday!!!!
We're in the same boat as you are. We have had entirely too much rain this entire summer
We had better than 2" yesterday and although the sun has now been out since late morning, I still have water in a low spot in my driveway which has absolutely no shade at all.
If we get the kind of rain from Ivan that they are calling for you they'll start closing schools prior to it's arrival because the roads flood so badly around here. And even more so because the ground is staturated.
The ground can't handle any more. Most of our property has been not much more than a swampt this entire summer.....and that goes for the entire county.
Expect the price of canned tomatoes and other tomato products to go up this winter - that is one of the major crops here and many of the crops were practically a total loss.. heck, I only got a couple dozen tomatoes - and I started out with 66 plants.
I put in a huge garden this year, with the hope of making money this winter by selling dried chiles, jelly, and hot sauce....so much for that goal.
If I sound like I am unhappy about the prospect of more rain - it's because I am!!!!!!!!
You found your vendor again!!!!!! Good for you.
I like calamari, but have never been able to handle the taste of scungilli.
My husband laughs at me about eating squid - his attitude is it belongs on the end of a hook and he will eat what eats it!
I'm not looking forward to dealing with a hurricane, but even I would prefer a northward turn of Jeanne so that it leaves you folks in Florida alone.
Not ready for another one. Here is what Charley did to us. Tornado went over us. http://www.webwizpro.com/Charley
My sister and her husband are in for some serious razzing.
Hurricane Jeanne - my sister's name is Jean
Hurricane Charley - her husband's name is Charlie
Some of you may remember Charlie. About a year and a half ago FReeper prayer helped save his life when he came down with a flesh eating bacteria. He still thanks all of you for your prayers.
these predicted land fall maps are SO stupid. So where else the d@mn storm supposed to go? Backwards????
Even I could gin up a supposed landfall map.
I REALLY HATE TO SAY THIS BUT..Channel 13 in Orlando said maybe the storm will go north and run into the Bermuda High, bounce off of it and come southwest to Florida again.???
Im just saying they put these balloons out and say, "hey everyone, the storm may hit between Virginia and Texas."
no kidding?
Look at the projected track in post #8. Hope you know how to duck!
Fox News just had one of the Accuweather guys on and that is basically exactly what he said :(
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