Posted on 09/16/2004 4:52:20 AM PDT by libtoken
Hurricane Jeanne Intermediate Advisory Number 11a
Statement as of 8:00 am AST on September 16, 2004
...Jeanne becomes a hurricane...the 6th of the 2004 season...near the eastern tip of Hispaniola...
a Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the eastern and northern coasts of the Dominican Republic from La Plata southward to Isla Saona.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect along the northern coast of the Dominican Republic from west of Puerto Plata westward to Monte Cristo. This area will likely be upgraded to a Hurricane Warning later this morning. A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remains in effect along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona westward to Santo Domingo. Tropical storm conditions are also likely along the north coast of Haiti.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the southeastern Bahamas... including the Acklins...Crooked Island...the Inaguas...Mayaguana... and the Ragged Islands...as well as for the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Jeanne.
Data from a reconnaissance plane and Doppler radar from Puerto Rico indicate that Jeanne has become a hurricane. At 8 am AST...1200z... the center of hurricane Jean was located near latitude 18.7 north ...Longitude 68.4 west...over the eastern tip of Hispaniola or Cabo engano in the Dominican Republic.
Jeanne is moving toward the west near 9 mph...15 km/hr. A gradual turn to the west-northwest is expected to for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph...130 km/hr... with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours as Jeanne hugs the north coast of the Dominican Republic. Cabo engano recently reported sustained winds of 56 mph...91 km/hr.
Hurricane force winds are confined to a small area near the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 40 miles...65 km from the center.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft recently measured a minimum central pressure of 985 mb...29.09 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected along the north coast of the Dominican Republic later this morning. Winds and seas will continue subsiding along the coastline of Puerto Rico during the day.
Rainfall accumulations of 9 to 13 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected over the Dominican Republic. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Several locations across Puerto Rico have already received more than a foot of rain...including the islands of Culebra and Vieques...with Naguabo in the eastern portion of the island having received more than 20 inches of rainfall. Additional rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches...locally higher...are still possible over Puerto Rico. Many rivers on Puerto Rico are already at or above flood stage.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.
Repeating the 8 am AST position...18.7 N... 68.4 W. Movement toward...west near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 80 mph. Minimum central pressure... 985 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 am AST.
Forecaster Avila
$$
Okay, so what is her projected path? Don't tell me that Florida is going to be hit again!
sw
Right now they have the southern tip of Florida in the projected path. But I think what I have heard is they are expecting this one to go a little further north. Carolina's again. And it isn't like they haven't had enough this year.
How funny these paths are, weather.com has it turning slightly north.
I have seen the storm in a couple of places referred to as "Javier". Jeanne makes more sense (if they switch from male to female names in order). Anybody know who sets the official name?
I believe 'Javier' is/was a Pacific storm. Different set of names.
"Javier" is out in the Pacific currently threatening the Mexican coast.
The Raleigh guy is using the latest path from the NHC. I think they are to be believed.
Dang, another hurricane...
I think this is God's way of telling Florida... "If you try to steal this election for Kerry, I've got locusts..."
Hurricane Jean strikes the Dominican Republic before the hurricane warning being issued
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/tropical_cyclones/tc04/ATL/11L.JEANNE/ssmi/vis1km/LATEST.jpg
Looks like Jeanne is headed due west. She may be history on that course with the mountains ahead.
Joe Bastardi from one of the weather prediction centers, said that Jeanne would most likely strike the U.S. mainland. He predicted it would hit the Florida peninsula and cross over into the Gulf Of Mexico, sending it towards New Orleans.
Doncha think that if power is out in FL during the election, they will have to revert to the dreaded "butterfly ballots."
"Javier" is an East Pacific Hurricane ... the EPac hurricanes get names from a separate list, and the masculine/feminine is opposite to the Atlantic Hurricanes. Furthermore, the masculine/feminine is reversed every year. IOW, next year's EPac "J" hurricane will be a feminine name and next year's Atlantic "J" hurricane will be a masculine name. The name lists come out of some official body in the sever storms forecasting community, and are prepared years in advance.
Wait a minute. . . Are you telling me BUSH KNEW!?!
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