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Terror Threat May Be Mostly a Big Bluff; The facts point to overestimation by a frightened U.S.
Los Angeles Times ^ | Sept 13, 2004 | BART KOSKO

Posted on 09/20/2004 9:04:05 AM PDT by Area Freeper

Just what is the evidence for this alleged terrorist threat that now dominates foreign affairs and the presidential election?

The third anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks on the Pentagon and New York's World Trade Center has come and gone without any terrorist attacks in the United States. No terrorists attacked the Olympics in Greece, as so many feared. And the big statistical picture of terrorism has changed little in years.

Deaths because of terrorism worldwide have increased a bit lately (especially after the school attack in Russia), but the number still remains on the order of about a thousand deaths a year, according to the State Department - a small fraction of the 15,000 or so murders each year in the United States or the 40,000 who die in car accidents.

The Bush administration and many others interpret these facts as proof that the government is winning its "war on terror" (even though Osama bin Laden still roams free and threatens from afar).

And they may be right. It's conceivable that there would have been some attacks by now if not for the government's stepped-up security at home and its vigorous anti-terrorism efforts abroad. We don't know. We do know that studies of our statistical competency show both that we systematically overestimate the probability of vivid, high-profile threats such as shark bites and terrorist bombings and that we poorly estimate the probability of less glamorous dangers such as highway fatalities.

The comparative absence of terrorism could just as easily (and I believe, more reasonably) support the very different conclusion that we have overestimated - grossly overestimated - the terrorist threat. We may be "winning" a war against terrorism simply because there are few terrorists

(Excerpt) Read more at newsday.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: demtriangulation; wishfulthinking
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To: Grampa Dave

Thanks Gramps!


61 posted on 09/20/2004 11:52:18 AM PDT by Area Freeper (From John Kerry, they get a "yes/no/maybe" bowl of mush that can only encourage our enemies)
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To: Wonder Warthog

He is a left wing elite professor.

He wrote the book, "Fuzzy Logic!"

What he is trying to say is that so what 3000 innocents were killed on 9/11. Compared to other deaths, it is just a statistical blip.


62 posted on 09/20/2004 11:52:24 AM PDT by Grampa Dave (When will the ABCNNBC BS lunatic libs stop lying to Americans? Answer: NEVER!)
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To: Grampa Dave
"What he is trying to say is that so what 3000 innocents were killed on 9/11. Compared to other deaths, it is just a statistical blip."

The problem with Bosco's "fuzzy logic" is that Osama Bin Laden has claimed the "right" to kill four million Americans as payment for "American atrocitites against Islam". That is hardly a "statistical blip".

63 posted on 09/20/2004 12:22:53 PM PDT by Wonder Warthog (The Hog of Steel)
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To: Wonder Warthog

BOZO Bosco would probably note that the slaughter of 4 million Americans out of 300+ million was just a statistical bump in the road of life.

I have the feeling that he has posted here as a whacko libertarian. After the 9/11 tragedy we had some them post that the loss of a major American City was no real problem and would not justify Homeland Defense.


64 posted on 09/20/2004 12:27:20 PM PDT by Grampa Dave (When will the ABCNNBC BS lunatic libs stop lying to Americans? Answer: NEVER!)
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To: Area Freeper

Actually, the terror threat is played down, and its links to higher order sponsoring states are spiked. The reality is grim. Very grim. At this point, I am on the verge of labelling certain attempts to sow disinfo as treason. The LA Grimes should be fully investigated.


65 posted on 09/20/2004 1:41:48 PM PDT by GOP_1900AD (Stomping on "PC," destroying the Left, and smoking out faux "conservatives" - Right makes right!)
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To: ApesForEvolution

Because they are traitors.


66 posted on 09/20/2004 1:43:01 PM PDT by GOP_1900AD (Stomping on "PC," destroying the Left, and smoking out faux "conservatives" - Right makes right!)
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To: Area Freeper
Deaths because of terrorism worldwide have increased a bit lately (especially after the school attack in Russia), but the number still remains on the order of about a thousand deaths a year, according to the State Department - a small fraction of the 15,000 or so murders each year in the United States or the 40,000 who die in car accidents.

“Only” about 1,000 deaths a year. Maybe they want more of this?


67 posted on 09/20/2004 1:47:39 PM PDT by R. Scott (Humanity i love you because when you're hard up you pawn your Intelligence to buy a drink.)
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To: Area Freeper

How very 9-10. This article is about as ignorant as it gets. Bosko's type of thinking led to 911 in the first place. Hating-America is not a foreign policy.


68 posted on 09/20/2004 1:53:00 PM PDT by KC_Conspirator (I am poster #48)
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To: ApesForEvolution
Why is our security not of interest to the Left in America?

Because they have come up with a Kinder and Gentler way to deal with terrorists.
If terrorists in the Muslim World don’t want us to back Israel and threaten to kill Americans because of it, we simply stop backing Israel.
If terrorists feel we should stay out of Saudi Arabia we should stay out of Saudi Arabia.
If a Jewish terrorist group (more radical element of Jewish Defense League?) decides we should continue to back Israel we will continue to back Israel. – Oops – can we do both?
If Saudi business leaders (who can buy a terrorist group) think we should stay to help run their infrastructure and aid their security we should stay. Oops -–can we do both?

69 posted on 09/20/2004 2:00:33 PM PDT by R. Scott (Humanity i love you because when you're hard up you pawn your Intelligence to buy a drink.)
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To: Area Freeper
"Anti-terror" may become a bigger growth industry, and a bigger permanently-entrenched boondoggle than "Anti-drug" if we're not vigilant. Already, the "if you're not with us, you're supporting terrorists" excuse is far too prevalent.
70 posted on 09/20/2004 2:03:13 PM PDT by Hank Rearden (Never allow anyone who could only get a government job attempt to tell you how to run your life.)
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To: R. Scott

I watched the video of the mood-god blood sacrifice of one of my countrymen, Mr. Armstrong, whose 'bodyguards' sold him out for blood money. The knife took forever as the blood drained out of his severed head. It sealed the deal for me...whatever means necessary to terrorize these cockroaches, I support...


71 posted on 09/20/2004 11:11:46 PM PDT by ApesForEvolution (DemocRATS are communists and want to destroy America only to replace it with the USSA)
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To: ApesForEvolution

Yes - and it won't be "kind and gentle".


72 posted on 09/21/2004 3:06:32 AM PDT by R. Scott (Humanity i love you because when you're hard up you pawn your Intelligence to buy a drink.)
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To: Grampa Dave

Remember, these people are allied with those who sincerely believe that 40mm aborted babies in 30 years is a positive step in our nation's history. There has never been any getting through to these wackos.


73 posted on 09/21/2004 8:08:19 AM PDT by Area Freeper (From John Kerry, they get a "yes/no/maybe" bowl of mush that can only encourage our enemies)
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To: Area Freeper

It would be interesting to hear this elitist left wing liberal professor justify the abortions of millions of Americans.


74 posted on 09/21/2004 8:15:58 AM PDT by Grampa Dave (When will the ABCNNBC BS lunatic libs stop Rathering to Americans? Answer: NEVER!)
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To: Area Freeper
Sounds just like the left-wing editorials I remember at the start of WW II when the left was supporting the Nazi because of the treaty signed between Stalin and Hitler. Hitler could do no harm and the left even went on strike to deny arms to the British during this period. It was not until Hitler attacked Stalin that the American left started to support a war against the Nazi as directed by their god the USSR. Same thing today as the left again takes the side of EVIL.
75 posted on 09/21/2004 8:21:05 AM PDT by YOUGOTIT
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To: Area Freeper


Well, that's what clinton said in 1993, so it must be true.


76 posted on 09/21/2004 8:22:11 AM PDT by js1138 (Speedy architect of perfect labyrinths.)
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To: Area Freeper
"The war on terror is not a figure of speech. It is an inescapable calling of our generation. The terrorists are offended not merely by our policies -- they are offended by our existence as free nations. No concession will appease their hatred. No accommodation will satisfy their endless demands. Their ultimate ambitions are to control the peoples of the Middle East, and to blackmail the rest of the world with weapons of mass terror. There can be no separate peace with the terrorist enemy. Any sign of weakness or retreat simply validates terrorist violence, and invites more violence for all nations. The only certain way to protect our people is by early, united, and decisive action."
- President George W. Bush March 19, 2004

Lando

77 posted on 09/21/2004 8:43:07 AM PDT by Lando Lincoln (A Fair and Balanced Decision - GWB in 2004)
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