Election 04 - In depth look at some competitive(and not) states based on 2000 results. (LONG READ)

A look at some key states by county. Note – I excluded some minor 3rd party candidates. I always included Nader and at least one RW 3rd party candidate, usually Browne and Buchanan.

Bush SHOULD take this state, but it was relatively close last time with Bush only getting about 52% there. Most of the dems best areas are in cities and Bush’s best was in rural areas. The big key is Fairfax County which I think may be a major problem for us in the future due to population dynamics. I am weary of it turning into a Bucks/Delaware County PA or Oakland County MI. Unfortunately, I’m not that familiar with the state outside of on paper. I know Arlington and Alexandria is Jim Moron country. Charlottesville is UVA. Are the inner cities like Richmond and Norfolk shrinking in population? I don’t know anything about Petersburg, but I suspect it is a minority area.

I’m not TOO worried here, but I expect a tough battle in 2008 when it is an open seat. I hope the GOP doesn’t get caught looking here like 96 Florida/Arizona or Tennessee/West Virginia 2000 on the dem side.

60%+ areas
Petersburg City – 79.13% Gore, 19.07% Bush - 11,053 voters, won by 6642
Richmond City – 64.83% Gore, 30.76% Bush – 89,049 voters, won by 22442
Charles City County – 64.74% Gore, 33.43% Bush – 3060 votes, won by 958
Charlottesville City – 59.14% Gore, 30.74% Bush, 9.11% Nader – 13124 votes, won by 3728 (not 60%, but only because of Nader’s big showing)
Portsmouth City – 62.90% Gore, 35.64% Bush – 35432 votes, won by 9658
Alexandria City – 61.05% Gore, 34.57% Bush – 55091 votes, won by 14590
Norfolk City – 61.87% Gore, 35.48% Bush – 61776 votes, won by 16301
Arlington County – 60.25% Gore, 34.23% Bush – 83416 votes, won by 21705

Other big population wins (30,000 or more Votes – 7%+ win)
Hampton City – 57.45% Gore, 40.88% Bush – 47853 votes, won by 7929
Roanoke City – 53.59% Gore, 43.76% Bush – 33436 votes, won by 3290

Bush Base
Won 40, mostly rural and semi-rural voter areas by 60%+
70% areas
Rockingham – 72.90% Bush, 24.33% Gore – 23982 votes, won by 11648
Poquoson City – 72.91% Bush, 24.72% Gore – 5858 votes, won by 2823
Colonial Heights City – 71.01% Bush, 27.02% Gore – 7772 votes, won by 3419
Augusta – 70.22% Bush, 26.29% Gore – 25269 votes, won by 11101
Powhatan – 70.25% Bush, 27.89% Gore – 9708 votes, won by 4112

Other big population wins (30,000 or more and 7%+ win)
Hanover (N Richmond) – 68.83% Bush, 28.97% Gore, 41573 votes, won by 16570
Chesterfield (S.Richmond) – 63.16% Bush, 34.90% Gore, 110,712 votes, won by 31286
Stafford – 60.61% Bush, 36.83% Gore, 34203 votes, won by 8135
Roanoke County – 60.13% Bush, 37.71% Gore, 42808 votes, won by 9599
Spotsylvania (Fredericksburg) – 59.28% Bush, 38.46% Gore, 34985 votes, won by 7284
Loudon (DC Exurbs) – 56.23% Bush, 40.98% Gore, 75503 votes, won by 11515
Virginia Beach City – 56.01% Bush, 41.68% Gore, 149397 votes, won by 21406
Henrico (NW Richmond) – 55.06% Bush, 42.59% Gore, 114225 votes, won by 14242
Prince William (DC exurbs) – 52.54% Bush, 44.53% Gore, 100478 votes, won by 8043

5 closest areas (All within 1%)
Nelson – 2913 Bush, 2910 Gore
Westmoreland – 2932 Bush, 2922 Gore
Wise – 6504 Bush, 6412 Gore
Northhampton – 2340 Gore, 2299 Bush
Southhampton – 3359 Gore, 3293 Bush
Within 7% and 30,000+ voters

Fairfax County – 48.91% Bush, 47.54% Gore, 413338 votes, won by 2455
Newport News City – 51.72% Gore, 46.91% Bush, 57574 votes, won by 2773
Abermarle – 49.69% Bush, 44.16% Gore, 5.55% Nader, 36808 votes, won by 2036
Chesapeake City – 52.63% Bush, 45.76% Gore, 73385 votes, won by 5048

Prediction: 53% Bush. 45% Kerry – I think incumbency will help in Northern VA where stability is important. Military issues are huge in Virginia. Kerry’s bailing out here. His gamble isn’t working, and this is the wrong state for a Massachusetts dem to fight in.

North Carolina:
One to watch with Edwards on the ticket. That said I expect Bush to win here too, like Virginia, but the job losses there worry me a little. With the amount of mid size counties for Bush though, I can’t see a loss here unless Edwards blows out Bush in both Raleigh and Charlotte, many GOP’ers stay home, almost ALL Nader votes go to Hanoi John – AND a huge black turnout. 13% of the vote from 2000 is a LOT to make up. Michigan is touted as a dem state, and Gore won there by less than 5%

60%+
Hertford – 69.44% Gore, 30.17% Bush, 7895 votes, won by 3100
Warren – 67.36% Gore, 32.42% Bush, 6793 votes, won by 2374
Northhampton – 67.24% Gore, 32.51% Bush, 8203 votes, won by 2849
Bertie – 64.94% Gore, 34.67% Bush, 7176 votes, won by 2172
Durham (Duke) – 63.73% Gore, 35.64% Bush, 84593 votes, won by 23754
Orange (Chapel Hill) – 62.70% Gore, 36.36% Bush, 49318 votes, won by 12991
Edgecomb – 62.16% Gore, 37.56% Bush, 18202 votes , won by 4479
Halifax – 60.24% Gore, 39.46% Bush, 16969 votes, won by 3526
Robeson (Lumberton) – 60.07% Gore, 39.48% Bush, 29688 votes, won by 6113
Anson – Gore 60.01%, 39.59% Bush, 7985 votes, won by 1631

70%+ areas
Yadkin – 76.27% Bush, 22.85% Gore, 13682 votes, won by 7308
Mitchell – 75.52% Bush, 23.26% Gore, 6600 votes, won by 3449
Avery – 74.04% Bush, 25.19% Gore, 6694 votes, won by 3270
Davie – 72.75% Bush, 26.08% Gore, 13998 votes, won by 6533
Randolph (Asheboro) – 72.51% Bush, 26.62% Gore, 42696 votes, won by 19593
Stokes – 70.00% Bush, 29.27% Gore, 17182 votes, won by 6998

Other big population wins (30,000 votes+ - 7%+ win)
Davidson (Lexington) – 67.99% Bush, 31.12% Gore, 52049 votes, won by 19188
Union (Monroe) – 67.59% Bush, 31.57% Gore, 47159 votes, won by 16986
Catawba (Hickory) – 67.36% Bush, 31.96% Gore, 50840 votes, won by 17998
Gaston (Gastonia) – 66.67% Bush, 32.58% Gore, 59179 votes, won by 20172
Henderson – 66.54% Bush, 32.54% Gore, 38607 votes, won by 13126
Cabarrus (Kannopolis?) – 66.23% Bush, 32.98% Gore, 49381 votes, won by 16420
Johnston (Selma) – 66.12% Bush, 33.30% Gore, 41155 votes, won by 13508
Rowan (Salisbury) – 65.53% Bush, 33.74% Gore, 44133 votes, won by 14031
Iredell (Statesville) – 65.49% Bush, 33.83% Gore, 45586 votes, won by 14419
Onslow (Jacksonville) – 65.06% Bush, 33.99% Gore, 30215 votes, won by 9388
Moore (Carthage) – 63.52% Bush, 35.88% Gore, 31301 votes, won by 8650
Alamance (Burlington) – 62.23% Bush, 37.08% Gore, 47091 votes, won by 11846
Wayne (Goldsboro) – 61.26% Bush, 38.38% Gore, 33884 votes, won by 7753
Craven (New Bern?) – 60.95% Bush, 38.18% Gore, 31985 votes, won by 7281
Burke (Morganton) – 60.22% Bush, 38.90% Gore, 30663 votes, won by 6537
Nash (Rocky Mount) – 58.97% Bush, 40.56% Gore, 30513 votes, won by 5619
Rockingham (Wentworth) – 58.50% Bush, 40.87% Gore, 32441 votes, won by 5719
Cleveland (Kings Mtn) – 58.24% Bush, 41.11% Gore, 32732 votes, won by 5609
Forsyth (Winston-Salem) – 55.98% Bush, 43.37% Gore, 120942 votes, won by 15243
Buncombe (Asheville??? – I thought that was lib) – 55.26% Bush, 43.81% Gore, 83426 votes, won by 9556
New Hanover (Wilmington) – 55.04% Bush, 44.17% Gore, 66321 votes, won by 7213
Pitt (Greenville) – 53.84% Bush, 45.70% Gore, 43073 votes, won by 3507

Chowan – 49.69% Gore, 49.39% Bush, 4890 votes, won by 15
Cumberland (Fayetteville) – 50.07% Gore, 49.42% Bush, 77151 votes won by 497
Chatam – 50.02% Gore, 49.00% Bush, 20915 votes won by 213
Hyde – 50.60% Bush, 48.64% Gore, 2237 votes, won by 44
Caswell – 50.70% Bush, 48.58% Gore, 8422 votes, won by 179

Within 7% and 30,000+ voters
Wake (Raleigh) – 53.13% Bush, 46.03% Gore, 268211 votes, won by 19020
Mecklenberg (Charlotte) – 51.02% Bush, 48.30% Gore, 262757 votes, won by 7157
Guilford (Greensboro) – 50.77% Bush, 48.60% Gore, 166237 votes, won by 3605

Prediction – 54% Bush, 44% Kerry – Edwards gets a few city votes, but not nearly enough. Kerry’s running, not Edwards, who’d probably lose the senate race since he’s never home. It’s a 10 point win for Bush despite Edwards.

New Jersey:
16% is needed for Bush to make up to win here. I hope I am eating crow here on Election Day, but I think there’s too much ground to make up in one cycle. 9/11 is a factor as well as the crook McGreevey, but this state elected Lostenberg as well. The polls look good for Bush here as of now, but it did as well in 2000 before he lost by 16% I think it will be an 8-10% Kerry win. Essex, Hudson, and Camden are killers. Those three counties combined are similar to a “Wayne County, MI” in numbers. For any chance all, Bergin and Ocean must go big for Bush, as well as a massive turnout in the Mtns, and some dems staying home.

Essex (Newark) – 71.72% Gore, 25.84% Bush, 258665 votes, won by 118663. Hudson (Jersey City) – 70.79% Gore, 26.23% Bush, 166973 votes, won by 74402
Camden – 64.66% Gore, 31.76% Bush, 196657 votes, won by 64702
Mercer (Trenton) – 61.52% Gore, 34.48% Bush, 135342 votes, won by 36586
Middlesex (N. Brunswick) – 59.95% Gore, 36.18% Bush, 258548 votes, won by 61453
Union (Elizabeth) – 60.17% Gore, 36.83% Bush, 186141 votes, won by 43449
Cumberland (Bridgeton) – 58.34% Gore, 39.08% Bush, 48315 votes, won by 9306
Atlantic (Atlantic City) – 58.12% Gore, 39.12% Bush, 90990 votes, won by 17287
Passaic (Patterson?) – 58.00% Gore, 39.20% Bush, 155720 votes, won by 29281
Glochester (Woodbury?) – 57.01% Gore, 39.49% Bush, 107162 votes, won by 18780
Burlington (S Central) – 56.10 Gore%, 40.72% Bush, 177375 votes, won by 27272
Bergen (Paramus) – 55.33% Gore, 41.70% Bush, 366290 votes, won by 49951
Salem (Delaware Bdr) – 51.05% Gore, 45.61% Bush, 26873 votes, won by 1461
Monmouth (Asbury Park) – 50.38% Gore, 45.71% Bush, 260992 votes, won by 12185
Ocean (Tom’s River) – 48.90 Bush, 47.24% Gore, 216133 votes, won by 3580
Somerset (Somerville) – 49.66% Bush, 46.76% Gore, 120265 votes, won by 3493
Cape May (S. Tip) – 50.05% Bush, 46.67% Gore, 47543 votes, won by 1605
Morris (N. Central) – 53.82% Bush, 42.66% Gore, 206359 votes, won by 23027
Warren (NW Mtns) – 54.40% Bush, 40.59% Gore, 40755 votes, won by 5629
Hunderton (Milford) – 57.12% Bush, 37.93% Gore, 56391 votes, won by 10823
Sussex (NW Mtns) – 58.01% Bush, 37.22% Gore, 57364 votes, won by 11924

Prediction – 53% Kerry, 45% Bush - I’d like to pick an upset here, but I don’t see it, especially since he’d probably have to sweep the soccer moms to do it to counter Newark, Patterson, Jersey City, and Camden. It’ll be closer than 16% here, but not enough.

I expect this to be a Florida type of state soon with the immigration as well as migration of retirees and Californians over there. Bush beat Gore by about 6% here. Klinton won here in 96. There are only 15 counties here. Bush won 11 and Gore won four.

Apache (St Johns) – 67.08% Gore, 30.63% Bush, 19418 voters, won by 7078
Santa Cruz (Nogales) – 58.94% Gore, 37.66% Bush, 8879 voters, won by 1889
Pima (Tuscon) – 51.39% Gore, 43.35% Bush, 287399 votes, won by 23109
Coconino (Flagstaff) – 49.69% Gore, 43.03% Bush, 6.07% Nader, 40816 votes, won by 2718
Pinal (Florence) – 48.78% Bush, 47.63% Gore, 41254 votes, won by 472
Navajo (Holbrook) – 49.31% Bush, 46.95% Gore, 25119 votes, won by 592
Gila (Globe) – 51.71% Bush, 43.48% Gore, 17711 votes, won by 1458
Maricopa (Phoenix, Mesa, Scottsdale) – 53.37% Bush, 43.00% Gore, 899256 voters, won by 93284
Yuma – 54.86% Bush, 40.28% Gore, 28631 voters, won by 3653
Greenlee (Clifton) – 54.70% Bush, 41.08% Gore, 2960 voters, won by 403
Cochise (Tombstone) – 54.81% Bush, 40.28% Gore, 33167 voters, won by 4820
Mohave (Kingman) – 55.31% Bush, 39.62% Gore, 44092 voters, won by 6916
La Paz (Parker) – 56.76% Bush, 39.49% Gore, 4480 voters, won by 774
Yavupai (Prescott) – 59.08% Bush, 35.41% Gore, 67950 votes, won by 16081
Graham (Thatcher) – 62.01% Bush, 34.94% Gore, 9687 voters, won by 2622

Prediction – 51% Bush, 47% Kerry – I’m predicting a 5% Bush win here. This is a tough state for me to predict with all the migration, but I don’t see anything being much different than last time.

A very close win for Bush last time – About 3.57%. Clark County is the tough county here. It’s the only county Gore won last time. Bush won all the rest – and needed to in order to win. If he can snip Clark, it’s no contest.

Clark (Las Vegas, Henderson) – 51.56% Gore, 44.94% Bush, 380334 voters, won by 25168
Washoe (Reno) – 52.42% Bush, 42.91% Gore, 121373 voters, won by 11544 Rest of State – 64.73% Bush, 30.70% Gore, 103477 votes, won by 35214

Prediction – 48% Bush, 47% Kerry - I’m worried about Yucca Mtn. I think that will be an ace in the hole for the dems there, and may be enough to win against most candidates. Luckily, John Kerry is an elitist jerk who I can’t see fitting in out that way.

This is a case of Portland vs the rest of the state. Gore only won 8 counties. He only won one county over 52%. Bush won 27 counties and won one with 80%, 5 between 70-79%, and 10 between 60-69%. If Bush can cut the margins on the west coast, he could pull an upset here if the east side turns out. Third parties factor in heavily here too. Nader and the Green Party vote is big here. Unfortunatly, Bush’s big wins were in low population areas. Any big win was in an area with less than 50,000 voters outside of the Bend and Medford areas. His base is about equal in votes to the Multnomah, Lane, Lincoln, and Benton counties leaving the main difference between Washington, Marion, and Clackamas.

Gore’s wins
Multnomah (Portland) – 63.75% Gore, 28.31% Bush, 7.12% Nader – 295574 votes, won by 104764
Lincoln – 51.90% Gore, 40.36% Bush, 6.86% Nader - 20926 voters, won by 2415
Lane (Eugene) – 51.95% Gore, 40.71% Bush, 6.77% Nader – 151266 votes, won by 17005
Benton (Corvallis) – 51.10% Gore, 41.59%, 6.47% Nader – 38049 votes, won by 3619
Clatsop – 50.62% Gore, 42.42% Bush, 5.73% Nader – 16388 votes, won by 1346
Columbia (St Helens) – 49.05% Gore , 44.49% Bush – 21061 votes, won by 962
Hood River – 47.75% Gore, 43.64% Bush, 7.56% Nader, 8527 votes, won by 351
Washington (W. Portland) – 48.87% Gore, 46.41% Bush, 185508 votes, won by 4541

Competitive areas where Bush won:
Tillamook – 46.94% Bush, 46.84% Gore, 12302 voters, won by 13
Clackamas (SE Portland) – 47.85% Bush, 47.27% Gore, 161661 votes, won by 938
Marion (Salem) – 50.93% Bush, 43.83% Gore, 112786 votes, won by 8013

Rest of State (24 counties) – 59.04% Bush, 35.49% Gore, 494262 voters, won by 116384.

Prediction – Bush 48% Kerry 48% - I expect a win of less than 1% here for Bush. Multnomah is slightly less than 1/5 of the vote and while Kerry takes a lot of Nader votes, Bush does better than he did in 2000 with some moderate dems staying home, and squish republicans voting for status quo. This is close, but I’m calling an upset here.

Similar to Oregon except Seattle is bigger. Of the possibly competitive states this fall, Jersey and Washington State are probably the two toughest. The problem with Washington State is that about 1/3 of the votes are from King County. Kerry won 11 counties, only one over 53% He still needs to make up about 140,000 votes to win. Snohomish, Pierce, Vancover, and Spokane are the big keys.

King (Seattle) – 60.22% Gore, 34.47% Bush, 715367 voters, won by 184171
San Juan – 52.87% Gore, 35.91% Bush, 10.41% Nader, 8178 votes, won by 1387
Jefferson – 52.34% Gore, 38.77 Bush, 7.76% Nader, 15234 votes, won by 2067
Thurston (Olympia) – 52.35% Gore, 41.22% Bush, 5.60% Nader, 88951 votes, won by 9902
Pacific – 51.69% Gore, 41.22% Bush, 9343 votes, won by 854
Gray’s Harbor – 51.40% Gore, 43.38% Bush, 24953 votes, won by 2000.
Snohomish (Everett) – 51.76% Gore, 43.85% Bush, 229922 votes, won by 18191
Pierce (Tacoma) – 51.59% Gore, 44.31% Bush, 255529 votes, won by 18692
Kitsap (Bremerton) – 49.27% Gore, 45.38% Bush, 94675 votes, won by 3682
Cowlitz (Longview) – 49.54% Gore, 45.68% Bush, 36004 votes, won by 1389
Mason – 48.48% Gore, 45.98% Bush, 21842 votes, won by 546

Competitive areas that Bush won:
Whatcom (Bellingham) – 47.07% Bush, 46.01% Gore, 71078 votes, won by 749
Skagit (Mt Vernon) – 49.28% Bush, 45.35% Gore, 44191 votes, won by 1736
Clark (Vancover) – 49.77% Bush, 45.61% Gore, 132143 votes, won by 5464
Island – 49.85% Bush, 44.81% Gore, 32233 votes, won by 1627
Callam – 50.67% Bush, 42.80% Gore, 31456 votes, won 2475.
Spokane – 51.97% Bush, 43.49% Gore, 165619 votes, won by 14042

Rest of State (22 counties) – 62.12% Bush, 33.85% Gore, 351249 votes, won by 99306

Prediction – 49% Kerry, 46% Bush – King County is too big. Wayne County in my state has about 1/6 of the vote. King isn’t quite as bad partisan wise, but has 1/3 of the vote. Bush would have to sweep Snohomish, Pierce, and maybe even Thurston, and have a major GOTV success out East, AND hope Seattle does not vote. I expect it close, but no cigar.

New Mexico was one of the closest states in 2000. Gore won by 366 votes out of almost 600,000. Gore won 13 counties, 8 of them by 19% or more. Bush won 20 counties, 14 by 19% or more. Any one of these can make the difference. Gore only one sizable county by a large number.
Santa Fe – 64.77% Gore, 28.27% Bush, 6.50% Nader, 49434 votes, won by 18043

Two somewhat competitive counties that Gore won made the difference. Bernalillo County is over 1/3 of the votes.
Dona Ana (Las Cruces) - 51.26% Gore, 45.58% Bush, 46647 votes, won by 2649
Bernalillo (Albuquerque) – 48.71% Gore, 46.64% Bush, 204200 votes, won by 4212

None of the counties Bush won had over 40,000 people, but the counties combined made the election close and combined, is as much a factor as Bernalillo.
Bush won areas – 59.27% Bush, 37.64% Gore, 215447 votes, won by 46620 .

Gore’s rural wins were big those. Outside of Santa Fe, Dona Ana, and Bernalillo
61.03% Gore, 34.34% Bush, 82433 votes, won by 22082.

Prediction 49% Bush, 48% Kerry – Military issues, incumbency and Kerry being such a leftist makes the difference.

Colorado
Colorado scares me a bit. Bush only got 50.85% last time. Gore only got 42.47%, but Nader had 5.26%, and how much of that will go to the dems this time? I think Gore under performed in Boulder considering it is a college town. I expect Ann Arbor numbers there. I’m not sure how Fort Collins is leftism wise.

Gore won 13 counties, 3 by over 20%, and 2 with 60%+. Gore won 6 counties with under 50%. Bush won 50 counties, had 70%+ in 11 counties, 60-69.9% in 18 counties, and won 7 counties with under 50% Nader had over 10% in 10 counties, 6 of them Gore winners, and 4 of them Bush winners. Iraq will be a huge issue in El Paso County.

Gore won 4 populated counties over 40,000. The other Gore areas are small places like Aspen.
Denver – 61.98% Gore, 30.92% Bush, 5.88% Nader - 197526 voters, won by 61335.
Boulder – 50.28% Gore, 36.54% Bush, 11.86% Nader – 138973 votes, won by 19091
Pueblo – 53.61% Gore, 42.36% Bush, 53882 votes, won by 6061
Adams (NE Denver) – 50.23% Gore, 44.13% Bush, 107718 votes, won by 6580

Other Gore areas – 50.13% Gore, 38.75% Bush, 9.72% Nader, 40639 votes, won by 4623

Bush won 7 populated counties over 40,000
Arapahoe (SE Denver) – 51.38% Bush, 43.75% Gore, 191600 votes, won by 14629
Jefferson (W Denver) – 51.11% Bush, 42.95% Gore, 235062 votes, won by 19168
Larimer (Fort Collins) – 52.85% Bush, 38.94% Gore, 6.94% Nader, 118136 votes, won by 16424
Weld (Greeley) – 58.10% Bush, 36.40% Gore, 64392 votes, won by 13973
El Paso (Colorado Springs) – 64.08% Bush, 30.87% Gore, 200182 votes, won by 66484
Mesa (Grand Junction) – 63.59% Bush, 30.35% Gore, 50948 votes, won by 16931
Douglas (Castle Rock) – 65.02% Bush, 31.44% Gore, 86133 votes, won by 28930

Rest of State – 59.47% Bush, 33.36% Gore, 5.61% Nader, 253835 votes, won by 66278

Prediction - 51% Bush 46% Kerry – It’s closer than last time with much of the Nader vote in Boulder/Denver/Ft Collins going to Kerry but it isn’t enough. The big race here IMO is really going to be Salazar and Coors.

New Hampshire
A very tough state to win. Bush won 6 counties and Gore 4. Only a 7332 vote difference state wide.

Cheshire (Keene) – 52.19% Gore, 41.41% Bush, 5.25% Nader – 33308 votes, won by 3589
Srtafford (Rochester) – 51.51% Gore, 42.80% Bush, 49313 votes, won by 4292
Merrimack (Concord) – 48.19% Gore, 47.26% Bush, 63541 votes, won by 594
Grafton (Woodsville) – 47.41% Gore, 46.81% Bush, 38652 votes, won by 234
Hillsborough (Manchester) – 48.77% Bush, 46.94% Gore, 165367 votes, won by 3024
Rockingham (Portsmouth) – 49.18% Bush, 46.02% Gore, 133916 votes, won by 4232
Coos (Rural north) – 50.18% Bush, 44.98% Gore, 14605 votes, won by 759
Sullivan (Newport) – 49.99% Bush, 44.19% Gore, 18610 votes, won by 1080
Carroll (Tamworth) – 52.92% Bush, 41.39% Gore, 23802 votes, won by 2745
Belknap (Laconia) – 55.38% Bush, 40.11% Gore, 26721 votes, won by 4080

Toughest state for me to predict. 48% Kerry 48% Bush. Being a neighbor makes the difference here. I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think it is 1988 New Hampshire any more. A lot of Massachusetts refugees who are familiar with their old home and John Kerry.

Missouri has picked the winner almost every election. Bush won a close race here in 2000, winning by 78695 votes and 3.34% The state is almost literally Kansas City and St Louis vs the rest of the state.

Gore won 14 areas (Cities or counties), 2 by over 70%, the rest all under 54% Bush won 100 areas, one over 70%, 42 over 60%. If Bush can equal his rural wins, he wins this again since the rural areas can match KC and both St Louis areas.

Seven of Gore’s wins are in 30,000+ populated areas, including the two major cities.
St Louis City – 77.43% Gore, 19.89% Bush, 124698 votes, won by 71758
Kansas City – 72.36% Gore, 25.01% Bush, 121653 votes, won by 57604
St Louis County – 51.49% Gore, 46.16% Bush, 486713 votes, won by 25942
Jefferson (St Louis S Burbs) – 50.03% Gore, 47.64% Bush, 77182 votes, won by 1850
Buchanan (St. Joseph) – 49.19% Gore, 47.28% Bush, 34732 votes, won by 662
Boone (Columbia) – 48.35% Gore, 47.71% Bush, 59583 votes, won by 385
Clay (KC, Liberty) – 48.77% Gore, 48.77% Bush, 80132 votes, won by one vote.

Eight of Bush’s wins are in 30,000+ vote populated areas.
Jackson County Outside KC (recorded different on their election website) - 49.27% Bush, 48.20% Gore, 150193 votes, won by 1603
Platte (KC, Platte City) – 52.27% Bush, 45.04% Gore, 34025 votes, won by 2460
St. Charles (ST Louis Burbs) – 56.06% Bush, 41.83% Gore, 128642 votes, won by 18308
Franklin (Union) – 55.80% Bush, 41.28% Gore, 39178 votes, won by 5691
Cass (Harrisonville) – 56.80% Bush, 42.14% Gore, 35411 votes, won by 5192
Greene (Springfield) – 57.52% Bush, 39.94% Gore, 102881 votes, won by 18087
Cole (Jefferson City?) – 61.55% Bush, 36.79% Gore, 32766 votes, won by 8111
Jasper (Joplin) – 66.46% Bush, 31.33% Gore, 37464 votes, won by 13162

52% Bush, 45% Kerry – This one won’t be as close as other Missouri races. It’ll take too much St Louis dead vote to win. Not only that, a Massachusetts liberal is on the ballot, no Mel Carnahan place crash this year, and I don’t think waving the bloody race shirt will have quite the same effect this year as 2000.

Michigan is probably the most turnout dependant state in the union. Most races are within 5% here either way. Mike Cox, Spence Abraham and Engler won their first race by 5% or less. Granholm, Stabenow and Gore won by 5% or less. Engler, Cox, and Stabenow won by 1%. For those that don’t know, Granhom is a Dem and Posthumus is a Republican. Bush needs to make up 217,219 votes to win – in a state of about 10 million.

UP
50.61% Bush, 45.95% Gore, 138812 votes, won by 6462
51.72% Granholm, 46.66 Posthumus, 102207 votes, won by 5172

There are a lot of conservative dems here. It’s starting to change, finally. Bush won all of the UP counties outside of Marquette, Gogebic, and Iron. He held Gore to under 50% in Gogebic and Iron (Strong Dem leaners if not strongholds) and even won normally dem counties Luce and Schoolcraft. Marquette is the big problem up here for the GOP, but Bush held Gore to only 53.13% in this union stronghold. Bush might even overperform over last time with his visit to Marquette. Even if Kerry visits there, Bush did it FIRST, and that makes the big impression in an area where small town politics dominate. Maybe the yellow dogs there will finally cave.

NE Lower
50.23% Bush, 47.26% Gore, 86203 votes, won by 2563
50.04% Posthumus, 48.73% Granholm, 65685 votes, won by 862

I included Cheboygan, Presque Isle, Montmorency, Alpena, Oscoda, Alcona, Ogemaw, Iosco, and Roscommon, here.

Bush and Posthumus both won Cheyboygan, Oscoda and Montmorency by 10% or more. Alcona is marginal GOP. Presque Isle swings, but is treading slightly GOP in statewide races. Bush lost Roscommon and Posthumus won it. Both were close. Both republicans barely lost Iosco and Ogemaw. Bush held Gore to 49% in Alpena. Granholm won it big with 56.95% That will be a key county in 04. There are many UAW retirees up here, and Alpena is a union county. If Bush can get bigger margins in the base counties here, and take a lot of the conservative dems here, it will make things much easier. Every vote counts as John Engler, Mike Cox, and Stabmenow will all say. The yooper visit may help here, as well as the Saginaw visit. John Kerry isn’t the ideal democrat for this area. Pro-life pro-gun workin man democrats are. Like the UP, maybe the yellow dogs will finally cave.

Northwest/Central Lower
56.68% Bush, 39.51% Gore, 151639 votes, won by 26040
57.18% Posthumus, 41.34% Granholm, 120180 votes, won by 19038

I included Emmet, Charlevoix, Antrim, Otsego, Crawford, Kalkaska, Grand Traverse(38229 votes in 00), Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, Wexford, and Missaukee counties.

Posthumus won all counties. Bush won all except Manistee, which Gore won narrowly. Benzie is a tough county marginally GOP. The rest are all base counties. Missaukee is the 2nd most GOP county in the state by percentage. Bush got 65.79% there and Posthumus 66.11%. Unfortunately it is a small county with 6496 voters in 00. The only large county here is Grand Traverse (Traverse City area) county where Bush got 58.48% and Posthumus 57.69%. Traverse City itself swings and Bush and Granholm both won there. The rest is all the base area.

Saginaw Valley/Bay area
56.88% Gore, 40.86% Bush, 394041 votes, won by 63162
54.85% Granholm, 43.90% Posthumus, 290668 votes, won by 31836

I included Arenac, Gladwin, Midland (38888 votes in 00), Bay (51636), Saginaw (93756), and Genesee (190865) counties.

Midland is the base county and only reliable GOP county in the area. Dow Chemical isn’t dem friendly. Bush got 56.28% and Posthumus 57.43% there. Gladwin is a swing county which Bush and Posthumus won. Arenac is a marginal dem county bordering Bay to the north. My guess why is GM commuters up I-75. Then there are the 3 GM/UAW counties of Bay, Saginaw, and Genesee.

Bay County is one of the most frustrating counties. There’s no reason it shouldn’t be ours. They are pro-gun, pro-life, and white. Unfortunately, they are yellow dog dems much as downriver is. Gore got 54.71% (6101 vote win) there and Granholm 53.30%. (3189 win). It’s not impossible to win there as Joel Gougeon (sp) did it. If Bush wins here, I’ll be shocked, but I’ll be happy if he keeps Kerry’s numbers down to 51 or 52%

Saginaw County is actually slightly more friendly than Bay which is surprising as it is much more diverse. Gore got 54.21% (9673 win) thanks to a black turnout. Granholm was held to 52.65% (4611 win) Most of the rural areas are GOP. Saginaw Twp(suburb) is the 2nd largest area and is marginal GOP. Thomas Twp is a good base area and is the 3rd largest area. Frankenmuth City and Twp are base areas 70% plus, and while small, are key because of their percentage. However the dems have the city of Saginaw which is the largest area and the 2nd most democrat at 74.50% Gore and 70.87% Granholm. Buena Vista Twp (East Saginaw) is the dems “Frankenmuth”. It is small but 82.42% Gore and 78.94% Granholm due to the large black population there. Bridgeport and Carrolton are democrat burbs. This county is actually winnable if Bush wins Saginaw Twp big and gets turnout from Frankenmuth and the rural areas. Even if it’s 50 or 51% dem, it’s a moral victory though. It can’t be 54% though like last time.

Genesee County is the 2nd worst county for us in the state. It’s the home of the birthplace of the UAW, Flint. The Flint Burbs are likely some of the most democrat burbs in the entire country. The only hope is that some of the white conservative dems break from the UAW guide, but there is slim to no chance of winning this county. Gore got 62.78% here and Granholm 60.12%. If Bush can hold Kerry to 58%, it’s a huge moral victory. Flint has about 1/5 of the Genesee votes, but it’s 83.55% Gore and 80.48% Granholm. Mt Morris Twp went 77.07% Gore and 73.44% Granholm. The areas Bush can win here mostly on the Southern and Western edges of the county. Both Fentons(did in 00), Argentine, Atlas, both Flushings (pushing it), Linden, and both Grand Blancs. Davison Twp isn’t out of the question either if things go right. Ironicly, that might be Michael Moore’s old home. I’m not sure if he’s from there or Davison City(unwinnable).

Central Michigan
52.62% Bush, 44.57% Gore, 96444 votes, won by 7764
53.11% Posthumus, 45.76% Granholm, 72574 votes, won by 5331

I included Osceola, Clare, Mecosta, Isabella, Gratiot, and Montcalm counties. These are hard to classify into a group. I think Clare is usually considered North and Montcalm West MI.

These are all small and mostly rural counties. Osceola is a base county where we might hit 60%. Gratiot and Mecosta are good counties for us where we should win by 10% or more. Montcalm will be a problem for us because of Greenville’s Electrolux plant. Greenville swings, and the rest of the county is usually base GOP, but I don’t know what to expect there this time. Clare and Isabella swing, and Gore and Granholm won them both narrowly last time. I am not sure why Clare is dem at times. Isabella’s vote depends on turnout among Mt Pleasant (Central Michigan University), the Chippewa reservation, or the rural areas.

West Michigan
57.20% Bush, 40.25% Gore, 810525 votes, won by 137420
57.59% Posthumus, 41.50% Granholm, 611605 votes, won by 98396

I included Lake, Mason, Oceana, Newaygo, Muskegon (69270 votes), Kent (250319), Ionia, Ottawa (110599), Barry, Allegan(44898), Kalamazoo (100656), Van Buren, Berrien(65241), Cass, and St Joseph counties.

Most of these counties are GOP base counties. Muskegon and Lake are dem, and Kalamazoo and Van Buren are tough swing counties for us. Lake County is the poorest county in the state and has a sizable black population. Mason, Oceana, and Cass should be 10%-15% wins. Ionia’s amount determines if it’s the city or county that turns out. Posthumus was held to 54% there. Bush 58%. Newaygo, St Joe, and Barry could hit 60%. Muskegon is a democrat stronghold and union town. Gore had 54.66% and Granholm 56.49% there. Kalamazoo County was won narrowly by Gore 48.49%, but Granholm did well there with 52.29%. Most of that difference was due to city turnout among the dems. Van Buren was won narrowly by the GOP both times. 50.17% and 49.93%. Berrien is an interesting county. It’s solid GOP for the most part, but has Benton Harbor, which is 96.47% and 89.65% democrat. Benton Twp is also solid dem, with Niles City and Buchanan City slightly leaning that way. The rest of the county is mostly 60%+ GOP, especially Lincoln Twp and St Joe. Turnout effects this county as if Benton Harbor votes (2000), it’s down to about 54.70% and if not(2002), 57.24% The big three counties here are Kent, Ottawa and Allegan. Ottawa is the most GOP county in the state, and one of the most in the country. 71.16% for Bush and 71.22% for Posthumus. While West Michigan as a whole has a large Dutch conservative population, Ottawa (Holland, Zeeland, Hudsonville) is the center of it. Allegan is usually the 3rd most GOP by % in the state. 62.80% for Bush and 62.28% for Posthumus. Part of Holland is in Allegan. Kent County is the largest county and was 59.37% for Bush and 60.62% for Posthumus. Grand Rapids itself swings and went narrowly for Gore and Granholm, but the rest of the county is base GOP, usually 65%+. A big turnout in most West MI are are needed (except Muskegon, Lake, Benton Harbor and Kalamazoo city). A good turnout can cut Detroit City’s advantage in ½ or even more.

South Central MI/Capital City area 49.07% Gore, 48.10% Bush, 424619 votes, won by 4128
51.86% Granholm, 46.97% Posthumus, 320664 votes, won by 15700

I included Shiawassee (32218), Clinton (32159), Eaton (49272), Ingham(120595), Jackson(61946), Calhoun (55080), Branch, Hillsdale, and Lenawee(40093) counties.

Branch and Hillsdale are base GOP on the Indiana border. Clinton County is solid GOP North of Lansing. Lenawee and Jackson Counties are marginal GOP. Eaton, Calhoun, and Shiawassee are swing counties. Bush and Granholm won Eaton (Lansing burbs and part of the city) which has a LOT of state workers. Shiawassee is between Lansing and Flint and has a lot of commuters to both areas. A lot of conservative dems live there (local level especially), but Bush and Posthumus both won it narrowly. Calhoun was narrowly won by Gore and Granholm. Albion is a dem stronghold there, and Battle Creek and Springfield are strong dem leans. Marshall is up for grabs each election. The rest leans GOP.

Ingham is the big problem here. It’s the 4th most dem county in the state, going 57.41% for Gore and 60.95% for Granholm. East Lansing, Lansing, and Lansing Twp are the one-two-three punch. Meridian Twp (Okemos) has been treading democrat heavily as well. Delhi and Mason are tough but winnable. The rest leans or is marginal GOP. Ingham county doesn’t usually stay home either unfortunately. The rest of these counties are pro-2a and Kerry’s gun stance may hurt badly, especially in Lenawee, Jackson, and Shiawassee.

Thumb
52.71% Bush, 44.62% Gore, 165073 votes, won by 13364
56.27% Posthumus, 42.09% Granholm, 126730 votes, won by 17969

I included Huron, Sanilac, Tuscola, Lapeer (37234), and St Clair (68516) Counties.

Posthumus did significantly better than Bush out here. I suspect part of that was because Posthumus visited the often overlooked thumb, and another part is that Granholm was viewed as a cultural liberal more than a populist. Gore took a populist shift at the end which helped here. I’d like to see Bush pay a visit to the thumb. This is a GOP leaning area, but has a lot of independent voters here. It’s not out of the realm of possibility for a conservative dem to win here, particulary in Tuscola and St Clair counties. It is however impossible for a John Kerry type. I think Bush will get Posthumus type numbers this time, and hopefully better. Sanilac county is the best GOP county here and goes for 60%. Huron went 55.33% for Bush, but 59.48% for Posthumus. Lapeer(moving to the right) went 54.66% for Bush, but 58.98% for Posthumus. Tuscola is more marginal, but still went 53.60% and 56.32%. St Clair is the big key though. Bush barely won it in 2000 with 49.00%. Posthumus got 52.76% there on a good high turnout. Port Huron is dem, but inroads can be made there. Outside of that area, the county leans GOP. This is a key one for Bush.

SE Michigan outside Detroit area
52.06% Gore, 44.67% Bush, 282240 votes, won by 20916<
51.76% Granholm, 46.85% Posthumus, 208359 votes, won by 10222

Livingston is the most GOP County in SE Michigan (usually 3rd or 4th in the state). It went 59.14% for Bush(that’s bad here) and 61.86% for Posthumus. The only three somewhat competitive areas are Putnam(Pinckney), Unadilla, and Brighton City. Bush still won all of them with Unadilla only being close. The rest of the county is all base. The most important thing here is for us to GOTV.

Washtenaw is usually the third most dem county in the state. It went 59.78% for Gore and 61.41% for Granholm, almost mirroring Livingston in reverse. Unfortunatly, Washtenaw has twice the voters. This is mostly due completely to the East Side of the county. Western Washtenaw is marginal GOP. Eastern Washtenaw has 7 areas where Gore beat Bush by double digits. The biggest is the city of Ann Arbor which is 1/3 of the vote in the county and was 69.22% Gore and 74.10% Granholm. By percentage, Ypsilanti next door is as bad or even worse. 71.96% Gore and 73.72% Granholm. Ypsi Township, Scio Twp, Superior Twp, Pittsfield Twp, and Ann Arbor Twp are all solid base areas for the dems.

Monroe is a true swing county. Gore won it with 51.04% and Posthumus won it with 52.27%. It’s similar to Macomb politically with a lot of social conservatives and populists. NE Monroe is the most dem and almost like downriver. SW Monroe is the most GOP and is sprawling burbs from Toledo. The two biggest keys are Bedford Twp and Monroe City. They are the base areas for each party and the most populous. Bedford needs to vote. This should be ours.

Macomb County
49.94% Gore, 47.52% Bush, 345659 votes, won by 8360
51.64% Posthumus, 47.16% Granholm, 256730 votes, won by 11518

If Bush is going to win Michigan, this is where he will do it. This is the home of the Reagan Dems.

The good news is that the dem areas here are mostly dropping population. Warren (58014), Eastpointe (14370), Center Line (3685), Mt Clemens (6573), and Roseville(18994) are the big 5 areas. Those are the base areas for the dems and all except MAYBE Roseville are on the decline in population. The bad news is that most of the GOP base areas in North Macomb are smaller in size – although fast growing. Armada, Bruce, Chesterfield, Harrison, Lake, Macomb, Ray, Richmond, Shelby, and Washington. Only Shelby, Harrison, and Macomb are sizable.

The real key areas here are Clinton Twp, St Clair Shores, and Sterling Heights. Bush lost Clinton Twp and St Clair Shores, and Posthumus won all three. Clinton Twp surrounds Mt Clemens and is a swing area with 41518 votes. Bush got 46.79% there and Posthumus 50.64%. St Clair Shores is similar with 32933 votes. Bush got 46.08% there and Posthumus 50.57%. Sterling Heighs is the 2nd largest city in the county. 52962 voters are there. Bush got 50.18%and Posthumus 53.06%. If Bush can improve those numbers as well as N Macomb numbers from 2000, he has a decent chance to win the state.

Oakland County 49.31% Gore, 48.10% Bush, 570265 votes, won by 6882
50.52% Granholm, 48.30% Posthumus, 435610 votes, won by 9668

Oakland’s a tough county for us, and I’m not sure we’ll carry it. Demographics are no longer in our favor here. The dems have won Oakland every election since 92 unless you count the Engler landslides of 94 and 98.

“Exurbs and outer Suburbs” – Generally West of I-275 and North of M-59.
Northern most and Western Most Oakland – South Lyon, Lyon Twp, Milford Twp, Novi, Northville, Commerce, Groveland, Brandon, Highland, Holly, Independence, Clarkston, Wixom, Oakland, Orion, Oxford, Rose, Springfield, White Lake, Walled Lake.
All of these are heavily GOP base areas outside of Walled Lake and Holly which are swing areas. Bush lost both and Posthumus won both. These are fast growing areas and if Bush will win Oakland, this is where it will be won. Unfortunately, none of these areas had 30,000 voters as of 2000.

South Oakland – South of 13 or 14 mile and East of I-275
Berkley, Farmington, Farmington Hills (40420), Ferndale, Hazel Park, Huntington Woods, Lathrup Village, Oak Park, Pleasant Ridge, Royal Oak (32319), Royal Oak Twp, Southfield City
Mostly Democrat base. Southfield City(37160), Oak Park, Royal Oak Twp, and Lathrup Village all have black majorities. It’s the fastest growing democrat area in the state and it’s very democrat. 82.80% Gore, 15.63% Bush, 37160 votes, won by 24960. Bush lost the county by under 10,000. Ferndale, Pleasant Ridge, Hazel Park and Huntington Woods are very left wing cultural areas. It’s Gilda Jacobs country. For those who don’t know, Gilda is our version of Chuck Schumer or Jon Corzine. All are lost causes and Bush will not do well. Kerry is the right type of leftist for those areas, although his charisma sucks which helps us. Apologies to the good folks behind enemy lines.

Berkley, Farmington, Farmington Hills, and despite its reputation, Royal Oak are all closer and winnable. Bush and Posthumus both won Farmington and lost the others. Bush was 6.3% behind in Berkley, 2.9% behind in F. Hills, and 5.4% behind in Royal Oak. These aren’t conservative areas by any means, but Rocky did win Farmington Hills three times so it isn’t impossible.

Central Oakland – East of I-275 and between M-59 and 13 or 14 mile
Auburn Hills, Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Bloomfield Twp, Clawson, Keego Harbor, Lake Angeles, Madison Heights, Orchard Lake, Pontiac, Rochester, Rochester Hills (35276), Southfield Twp, Sylvan Lake, Troy(39126), Waterford(32742), West Bloomfield(33865).

There’s a little bit of everything here. Pontiac is a democrat union and minority stronghold but declining in population. They don’t vote that much for its size for some reason. Auburn Hills, Keego Harbor, and Clawson lean slightly dem but can be won. Madison Heights is tougher and is a dem lean.

The Bloomfields, Birmingham, Lake Angeles, Orchard Lake, both Rochesters, Troy, Southfield Twp, and Sylvan Lake all have strong GOP leans. It’s a tax unfriendly area.

That leaves Waterford and West Bloomfield. Waterford leans GOP, and the dems think they have a shot at it each year. It’s more of a “Macomb” type of township than an Oakland one and cultural issues are bigger there. West Bloomfield is heavily Jewish. It went to Gore and Granholm big, but also voted for a GOP state rep (who was Jewish) and GOP congressman (who is Catholic but pro-Israel). It will be very interesting what happens there election time. If it is within 5% there, great.

Wayne County
69.01% Gore, 29.02% Bush, 768627 votes, won by 307393
67.81% Posthumus, 31.05% Bush, 566491 votes, won by 208222

This is the 800lb beast we have to defeat here. We’ll never win Wayne county thanks to Detroit, but we can make it less of a loss than we did before.

The good news is that Detroit’s population is down to 925,000 people instead of 1.8 million like it used to be. The bad news is this: - Detroit - 93.88% Gore, 5.22% Bush, 300500 votes, won by 266423. (add 4900 more Gore votes and 150 Bush votes with Highland Park, and about 1150 Bush and 3100 Gore votes with Hamtramck to finish off the inner city)

We’re going to start between 200,000 and 270,000 in the hole thanks to Detroit alone. If it’s the former, we have a shot. If it’s the latter, we’ll lose. If we drop 60,000 votes though, we only have to make up a difference of 155,000 either by changing 80,000 minds or through new voters.

Grosse Pointes (and Harper Woods) – This is mostly GOP outside of Harper Woods on the NE part of Wayne County. About 35,000 votes and 60% GOP. The best thing that can happen here is a high turnout.

Western Wayne – Livonia (51452), Redford, Plymouth city and twp, Northville city and twp, Westland(31572), Canton(32104), Dearborn Heights, Garden City, Belleville, Romulus, and Van Buren.
Livonia is one of two cities over 100,000 that Bush won in 2000. The other is Sterling Heights. Bush and Posthumus both won Livonia, Plymouth Twp, Northville City, Northville Twp, and Canton. Bush won Plymouth City as well which Posthumus lost (Neighbor vote to Granholm). Bush needs to do very well in these areas. Both lost Redford by about 12% and 8%, which has been treading dem with its population drop (to Livonia most likely) although it still has a conservative blue-collar streak, especially for a city that borders Detroit. Westland is now a lost cause. Bush lost it by 18% and Posthumus lost it by 13.5% It’s also been dropping population, most likely to Canton. Garden City Bush lost by 15% and Posthumus 6% Dearborn Heights is winnable. Bush lost it by 6% and Posthumus 3%. Belleville and Romulus are dem base areas near Metro Airport.

Downriver – Allen Park, Brownstown Twp, Dearborn, Ecorse, Flat Rock, Grosse Ile, Huron Twp, Inkster, Lincoln Park, Melvindale, River Rouge, Riverview, Rockwood, Southgate, Sumpter, Taylor, Trenton, Woodhaven, Wyandotte,

Bush was crushed down here last time. He won Grosse Ile, which is base and won Dearborn. That’s it. Posthumus did better. He lost Dearborn to Granholm narrowly, but won Allen Park (which Bush lost by 10%), won Huron Twp by 11%(Bush lost by 7.8%), and won Gibralter by 10.44% (Bush lost by 3-4%). Posthumus also “only” lost Brownstown by 6.95%(Bush by 17.92%), Flat Rock by 5.44% (Bush by 16.46%), Riverview by 5.79% (Bush by 14.49%), Rockwood by 4.54% (Bush by 17.16%), Trenton by 3.84% (Bush by 9.11%), Woodhaven by 0.39% (Bush by 13.43%), and Wyandotte by 9.32% (Bush by 23.68%). Bush CAN equal Posthumus on this, if not do better. Inkster, Ecorse and River Rouge are about ½ black and unwinnable. Southgate, Melvindale, Taylor, Sumpter, and Lincoln Park are dem strongholds even by downriver standard. If Taylor and Sumpter can be held to about a 10% loss, that’s good, and if Southgate, Lincoln Park, and Melvindale can be held under 20% loss, that’s good. The less votes that need to be made up here, the better. If Wayne County can be knocked down to “only” 65% dem instead of 68%, we’ll win.

Prediction – Upset Special. It all goes right and the race ends right here at home. 48.5% Bush, 47.5% Kerry The bloody shirt isn’t the same this year. State Workers are mad at Granholm and won’t help her. Gay Marriage is on the ballot – which means big turnout in Dutch Reform areas as well as the church going Catholics. A gambling measure is also on the ballot. Bush is working the conservative democrat areas hard. Kerry isn’t catching on and has mostly stayed in Detroit. There’s isn’t enough reason to vote FOR Kerry out here. It’s all anti-Bush, and that won’t be enough. I also predict a big turnout in Livingston in a 2002 repeat – the local paper makes us all mad and fires up the base. Lastly, and the Muslim vote is important, but OVERRATED. Despite what some say on FR, this is not an Islamic state. Most Arabs are Christians, and most Michigan voters are CATHOLICS. Kerry’s lack of strong economic plan kills him among undecideds. Bush wins by 17,000 votes and the MEA is wondering WTF happened the next day in a repeat of 1990.

Wisconsin
Wisconsin is up for grabs this year. Unlike most states, the suburbs here the most republican area of the state and the rural areas here are more competitive. In 2000, Bush only broke 55% in 11 counties. Gore in only 7. 21 counties were within 5%. Maybe Douglas will be better this time with the UP and Green Bay visit. As bad as Milwaukee is, at least it’s not like Wayne or Cook Counties percentage or numberswise.

Dem’s top areas
Menominee – 77.34% Gore, 18.34% Bush, 1227 votes, won by 724
Douglas (Superior) – 62.76% Gore, 32.00% Bush, 21658 votes, won by 6663
Dane (Madison) – 61.25% Gore, 32.62% Bush, 5.61% Nader, 232361 votes, won by 66527
Milwaukee – 58.32% Gore, 37.78% Bush, 432694 votes, won by 88838
Rock (Janesville) – 57.58% Gore, 39.08% Bush, 70293 votes, won by 13005
Portage (Stevenspoint) – 53.25% Gore, 39.22% Bush, 6.36% Nader, 33691 votes, won by 4728

Competitive large areas
LaCrosse – 51.32% Gore, 43.88% Bush, 55441 votes, won by 4128
Eau Claire – 50.39% Gore, 43.78% Bush, 5.15% Nader, 47783 votes, won by 3157
Kenosha – 50.96% Gore, 45.40% Bush, 63635 votes, won by 3538
Racine – 49.61% Bush, 46.84% Gore, 88726 votes, won by 2451
Marathon (Wausau) – 49.66% Bush, 45.64% Gore, 58161 votes, won by 2337
Manitowoc – 49.98% Bush, 45.61% Gore, 38735 votes, won by 1691
Brown (Green bay) – 50.42% Bush, 45.62% Gore, 107616 votes, won by 5162
Wood (Wisc. Rapids) – 49.84% Bush, 44.69% Bush, 35720 votes, won by 1840
Winnebago (Oshkosh) – 50.48% Bush, 44.76% Gore, 75930 votes, won by 4347

Bush top areas
Washington (NW Milwaukee) – 67.10% Bush, 29.53% Gore, 61342 votes, won by 23047
Ozaukee (NE Milwaukee) – 65.33% Bush, 31.52% Gore, 47690 votes, won by 16125
Waukesha (W Milwaukee) – 65.40% Bush, 31.60% Gore, 203524 votes, won by 68786
Dodge (Juneau) – 57.58% Bush, 38.71% Gore, 37660 votes, won by 7104
Walworth (Elkhorn) – 56.87% Bush, 38.34% Gore, 40409 votes, won by 7490
Fond Du Lac – 57.17% Bush, 39.15% Gore, 46439 votes, won by 8367
Jefferson – 53.30% Bush, 42.19% Gore, 36062 votes, won by 4001
Sheboygan – 53.79% Bush, 42.76% Gore, 55123 votes, won by 6079
Outgamie – 52.18% Bush, 43.29% Gore, 75618 votes, won by 6725

Prediction – 50% Bush, 48% Kerry. Ozaukee cancels Rock. Waukesha cancels out Dane County, leaving Milwaukee as the only real big problem. Bush has emphasized the UP of Michigan, and I believe has visited Green Bay. That whole “Iron Range” target may cut hit losses in Superior and become a bigger win in the Northwest part of the state Green Bay. I’ve heard stories of inroads in Milwaukee County. If so, the time finally may be ripe for the Wisconsin to go GOP for president for the first time since 84.

Pennsylvania
This state has been called “Pittsburgh in the West, Philly in the East, and Alabama in Between” and there is a lot of truth to that. The big key here will be the Phily burbs, Erie, and Leigh Valley. Those went heavy for Gore in 2000 and if Bush wants to win here, that will be much of the key.

Philadelphia – 80.04% Gore, 17.99% Bush, 561183 votes, won by 348223
Lackawanna (Scranton) – 59.63% Gore, 36.42% Bush, 96383 votes, won by 22373
Fayette (Uniontown) – 56.83% Gore, 40.41% Bush, 49537 votes, won by 8134
Allegheny (Pittsburgh) – 56.62% Gore, 40.43% Bush, 582748 votes, won by 94332
Delaware (S Philly Burbs) – 54.36% Gore, 42.66% Bush, 248077 votes, won by 29025
Montgomery (NW Philly) – 53.54% Gore, 43.81% Bush, 332424 votes, won by 32367
Erie – 52.88% Gore, 43.64% Bush, 112335 votes, won by 10372
Washington (S Pitt) – 53.25% Gore, 44.22% Bush, 84441 votes, won by 7622
Beaver (W Pitt) – 52.74% Gore, 44.02% Bush, 73802 votes, won by 6434
Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre) – 52.01% Gore, 43.76% Bush, 119586 votes, won by 9871
Lawrence (Newcastle) – 51.99% Gore, 45.59% Bush, 39610 votes, won by 2533

Key Compeititve areas
Northhampton (Bethlehem) – 50.72% Gore, 45.67% Bush, 104690 votes, won by 5701
Bucks (NE Philly) – 50.46% Gore, 46.29% Bush, 263422 votes, won by 10987
Cambria (Johnstown) – 50.27% Gore, 46.45% Bush, 60286 votes, won by 2307
Mercer (Sharon) – 48.88% Gore, 47.47% Bush, 48725 votes, won by 685
Leigh (Allentown) – 48.87% Gore, 47.86% Bush, 115958 votes, won by 1175
Monroe – 49.63% Bush, 46.80% Gore, 46878 votes, won by 1326
Westmoreland (Greensburg) – 51.60% Bush, 45.81% Gore, 156709 votes, won by 9066
Schuylkill – 51.19% Bush, 44.97% Gore, 49515 votes, won by 4766

Bush Top areas
Franklin (Chambersburg) – 67.48% Bush, 30.47% Gore, 48969 votes, won by 18120
Lancaster – 66.11% Bush, 31.35% Gore, 175317 votes, won by 60932
Lycoming (Williamsport) – 62.84% Bush, 33.96% Gore, 43183 votes, won by 12474
Blair (Altoona) – 62.86% Bush, 34.94% Gore, 345140 votes, won by 12602 Lebanon – 62.19% Bush, 35.08% Gore, 45880 votes, won by 12441
Cumberland (Carlisle) – 62.23% Bush, 35.26% Gore, 88062 votes, won by 23749
Butler – 62.14% Bush, 35.35% Gore, 70824 votes, won by 18972
York – 60.77% Bush, 36.02% Gore, 144244 votes, won by 35694
Centre (State College) – 52.86% Bush, 43.23% Gore, 49515 votes, won by 4766
Chester (W. Chester) – 53.36% Bush, 43.23% Gore, 187562 votes, won by 18033
Dauphin (Harrisburg) – 53.28% Bush, 44.10% Gore, 100658 votes, won by 9241
Berks (Reading) – 52.73% Bush, 43.76% Gore, 135163 votes, won by 12123

Prediction – 50% Kerry, 47% Bush – The Philly Burbs have been killing us lately and a lot of votes are needed to make up the deficits in Philly and Alleghany as it is. Some of it can be made up with high turnout and inroads into Leigh Valley, Pitt’s Burbs, and maybe Erie, but there’s no way to win without a MAJOR turnaround in Montgomery, Bucks, and Delaware. These are in worse shape than Oakland County in my state. Bush will probably have to win 2 of those to win. I don’t see it. I hope I’m wrong. York and Lancaster are the major base and need record turn outs.

Florida This state is close because of about 6 counties. There’s a million votes in Broward and Palm Beach alone. Gore won 17 counties overall. Bush the rest. Most of the rural areas are solidly for Bush. The West Coast and I-4 area has a lot of Michigan snowbirds (Lakeland, Orlando, Tampa, Bradenton). The Southeast coast is NYC South. Northern Florida is the South and the home of Lynyrd Skynyrd.

Dems top areas
Broward (Fort Lauderdale, Hollywood) – 67.45% Gore, 30.95% Bush, 574795 votes, won by 209801
Palm Beach (Boca Raton) – 62.35% Gore, 35.36% Bush, 432592 votes, won by 116781
Leon (Tallahassee) – 59.61% Gore, 37.91% Bush, 103409 votes, won by 22365
Alachua (Gainesville) – 55.30% Gore, 39.84% Bush, 85656 votes, won by 13241
St. Lucie (Fort Pierce) – 53.33% Gore, 44.53% Bush, 77934 votes, won by 6854
Volusia (Daytona Beach) – 53.02% Gore, 44.87% Bush, 183533 votes, won by 14947

Key Competitive areas
Miami-Dade – 52.60% Gore, 46.32% Bush, 625084 votes, won by 39275
Pinellas (St Petersburg) – 50.44% Gore, 46.46% Bush, 397792 votes, won by 15805
Osceola (Kissimmee) – 50.70% Gore, 47.15% Bush, 55589 votes, won by 1969
Hernando (Brooksville) – 50.10% Gore, 47.03% Bush, 65159 votes, won by 1998
Orange (Orlando) – 50.08% Gore, 48.04% Bush, 279994 votes, won by 5703
Pasco (Dade City, N Tampa) – 48.81% Gore, 48.11% Bush, 142518 votes, won by 1002
Hillsborough (Tampa) – 50.23% Bush, 47.12% Gore, 359860 votes, won by 11203
Sarasota – 51.69% Bush, 45.31% Gore, 160773 votes, won by 10247

Bush top areas
Okaloosa (Fort Walton Beach) – 73.75% Bush, 23.99% Gore, 70639 votes, won by 35145
Clay (S. Jacksonville) – 72.80% Bush, 25.52% Gore, 57326 votes, won by 27104
Santa Rosa (Milton) – 72.17% Bush, 25.47% Gore, 50265 votes, won by 23472
Bay (Panama City) – 65.76% Bush, 32.08% Gore, 58752 votes, won by 19787
Collier (Naples) – 65.64% Bush, 32.49% Gore, 92088 votes, won by 30529
St Johns (St. Augustine) – 65.13% Bush, 32.12% Gore, 60716 votes, won by 20044
Escambia (Pensacola) – 62.62% Bush, 35.12% Gore, 116595 votes, won by 32074
Lee (Ft. Myers) – 57.62% Bush, 39.94% Gore, 184165 votes, won by 32581
Duval (Jacksonville) – 57.53% Bush, 40.80% Gore, 264381 votes, won by 44234
Lake (W Orlando) – 56.47% Bush, 41.30% Gore, 88555 votes, won by 13439
Seminole (N Orlando) – 55.01% Bush, 43.02% Gore, 137559 votes, won by 16503
Martin (Stuart) – 54.84% Bush, 42.97% Gore, 61949 votes, won by 7350
Marion (Ocala) – 53.61% Bush, 43.42% Gore, 102861 votes, won by 10476
Polk (Lakeland) – 53.59% Bush, 44.63% Gore, 168499 votes, won by 15095
Charlotte (Punta Gonda) – 52.99% Bush, 44.34% Gore, 66860 votes, won by 5781
Brevard (Melbourne) – 52.77% Bush, 44.59% Gore, 218258 votes, won by 17867
Manatee (Bradenton) – 52.61% Bush, 44.64% Gore, 110152 votes, won by 8775
Citrus – 52.08% Bush, 44.66% Gore, 57153 votes, won by 4242

Prediction – 51% Bush, 47% Gore - While the dems may be fired up about the so-called stolen election, if that was enough, the dems would have beaten Jeb in 02. The panhandle should have higher turnout this time too unless the MSM F’s it up again like last time. The I-4 area, particularly Tampa/St Pete will be interesting to see.

Ohio
The most hyped state in this year’s election. A very regional state with the North going dem and the South going GOP. Somewhat similar to Michigan except Cuyahoga County is much smaller than Wayne County, and Mahoning and Trumbell counties are smaller than Genesee and Saginaw so that helps Ohio.

Dems’ best areas
Cuyahoga (Cleveland) – 62.71% Gore, 33.47% Bush, 573909 votes, won by 167814
Mahoning (Youngstown) – 60.68% Gore, 35.47% Bush, 114054 votes, won by 28752
Trumbull (Warren) – 59.95% Gore, 36.04% Bush, 96144 votes, won by 22989
Lucas (Toledo) – 57.90% Gore, 39.20% Bush, 187120 votes, won by 35002
Lorain – 53.39% Gore, 42.81% Bush, 112028 votes, won by 11852
Summit (Akron) – 53.33% Gore, 43.07% Bush, 224574 votes, won by 23038

Key Competitive Areas
Portage (Ravenna) – 50.09% Gore, 45.03% Bush, 62779 votes, won by 3175
Montgomery (Dayton) – 49.67% Gore, 47.60% Bush, 230651 votes, won by 4785
Franklin (Columbus) – 48.86% Gore, 47.86% Bush, 413447 votes, won by 4156
Clark (Springfield) – 48.85% Gore, 48.28% Bush, 57285 votes, won by 324
Stark (Canton) – 48.96% Bush, 47.18% Gore, 159618 votes, won by 2845
Lake (Painesville) – 50.51% Bush, 45.39% Gore, 102450 votes, won by 5250

Bush’s Best areas (50,000+ population)
Warren (Lebanon) – 70.01% Bush, 27.73% Gore, 69019 votes, won by 29176
Clermont (Withamsville) – 67.53% Bush, 29.99% Gore, 69787 votes, won by 26202
Delaware – 66.20% Bush, 30.96% Gore, 55343 votes, won by 19505
Butler (Hamilton) – 63.37% Bush, 33.95% Gore, 136633 votes, won by 40197
Fairfield (Lancaster) – 62.03% Bush, 35.28% Gore, 54403 votes, won by 14458
Licking – 59.60% Bush, 37.18% Gore, 62383 votes, won by 13984
Greene (Xenia) – 58.32% Bush, 38.51% Gore, 65068 votes, won by 12887
Richland – 57.18% Bush, 39.00% Gore, 52746 votes, won by 9586
Medina – 55.97% Bush, 39.91% Gore, 66734 votes, won by 10714
Hamilton (Cincinnati) – 54.08% Bush, 42.80% Gore, 377509 votes, won by 42597
Wood (Bowling Green) – 52.79% Bush, 43.55% Gore, 52098 votes, won by 4817

Prediction
50% Bush, 47% Kerry – The dems simply picked the wrong guy. Gun grabbing elitist flip flopping arrogant jerks don’t make it in the Midwest. Especially those that vote for outsourcing and have no real plan. The biggest keys here are to limit losses in Cleveland/Youngstown/Warren./Akron /Toledo and do well in Dayton, Columbus, and Cincy, and for big turnouts elsewhere. I think it will be close, but a W win.

You have 2910 votes for Gore in Nelson Co., Va., but The World Almanac gives him only 2907 (six-vote margin for Bush instead of three votes). I don't understand why the margin was so narrow there--the other counties on the eastern slope of the Blue Ridge mostly gave Bush comfortable margins (3-2 or even 2-1).

Sorry to nitpick--you have presented an impressive amount of data and analysis.

I'm a Macomb County Republican, and used to work as a Policy Advisor to the Senate Republican Caucus, so I've spent a lot of election cycles watching trends. I think your analysis is excellent and accurate for Michigan. Anecdotally, Macomb should be solid for Bush this year. I see nothing but "W" signs and bumper stickers, and no one is shy about voicing their support for him.

Thanks for the good G2.

Upset Special. It all goes right and the race ends right here at home. 48.5% Bush, 47.5% Kerry The bloody shirt isn’t the same this year. State Workers are mad at Granholm and won’t help her.

If you track President Bush's visits here in Michigan he pretty much gives weight to your analysis. Turnout does mean everything, the gay marriage issue will help but so will the lack of enthusiasm for Kerry. He needs people like Granholm, who I thought really revved up crowds when she appeared with Gore in 2000 but her star isn't shining as brightly now. All of the hate Engler passion is gone now as well.

I'm interested in how Kerry's hard turn to the left on Iraq will really play too. Among my more moderate friends who are Democrats, it isn't going over and it's opening a door for the President to better lay out the progress, describe the challenges and explain how they are being met. As another aside, among these same friends, the Catholics tell me they can't vote for a pro-choice Catholic (though they voted for Gore). I don't know if that's unique among them or if it's happening to other Catholics in the state.

I am in Western Michigan and volunteering. I hope you are doing so as well.

Wow!! I'm impressed. I agree with plushaye; the BC/04 Campaign needs to hire you.

As far as your predictions: From your lips to God's ears.

I agree that the Gay Marriage Referendum on the November 2 ballot will help The Prez in Michigan. I'm hoping that the conservatives will come out in droves. I'm praying for a severe rainstorm in Detroit on election day; starting about 1:00 p.m. when they all start waking up from their drug and alcohol hangovers. Also, I suspect that many of them will not have time to go vote because they will be spending their welfare checks on Nov. 2 that they received on Nov. 1.

I live in Philadelphia 1 block from Montgomery County and go there all the time. I'm becoming convinced that the situation there is nearing hopelessness for the Republicans. Most of the Republicans there are RINO's. All they care about is gun control and abortions and queers and other nonesense. 2nd wealthiest county in the state, yet they won't vote for fiscal conservatives and pro-business condidates, and definitely not for born again evangelicals like Bush.

Abington, Cheltenham, and Lower Merion Townships (20% of the county's population) have been overrun by the worst liberal Jewish/Black/Irish element out of Philadelphia, and they've joined up with the worst libeal WASP RINO's in the whole State.

How telling that it is the only county in the region whose county seat (Norristown) is a sh*thole.

Bucks was close last time, and will probably be close this time again too - plenty of 9/11 victims there to bring home the reality of the world and the uselessness of John Flip Flop Heinz Ketchup Kerry. I hope Bush does win there, and brings Fitzpatrick with him.

Delaware County has the same sort of problems that Montgomery County has with its Upper Darby, Haverford Townships and Lansdowne, Yeadon, and Darby Boroughs. To say nothing of its own mini armpit of the world, Chester City.

I started out a whole other thread on this very topic before I saw your post.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1224305/posts

A couple minor points. You are confusing the location of the Lehigh Valley. The Lehigh Valley is Allentown/Bethlehem, and is competitive. Scranton/Wilkes-Barre is what you are thinking of, and it is more heavily Dem. However, the poll I discuss over there shows it breaking bigtime for Bush this time - a +10 swing.

Additionally, Bush is doing even better than before in the Republican base of Harrisburg-York-Lancaster, with a 12 point swing in a region he trounced Gore by 24 points in, which bodes well for Chester County, which is really more a part of that area than of Philadelphia.

Lastly, Bush has a 5 point swing in Pittbsurgh and a 10 point swing in the Pittsburgh exurbs.

It may be possible to write off RINO/Dim SE PA and still win by 1-3 points, if these numbers hold.

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