Hurricane Jeanne cat 2 25 Sep 2004

weather underground

[libtoken]

Hurricane Jeanne Advisory Number 47...Corrected

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 25, 2004

...Corrected to add headline and storm tides along the Florida West Coast...

...Jeanne moving westward toward the abaco islands...expected to intensify into a category three hurricane... A Hurricane Warning is in effect along the Florida East Coast from Florida City northward to St. Augustine...including Lake Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for the northwestern Bahamas...including the Abacos...Andros Island...Berry Islands...Bimini...Eleuthera...Grand Bahama Island...and New Providence. Preparations to protect life and property throughout the Hurricane Warning area should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the northeast Florida and Georgia coasts from north of St. Augustine to Altamaha Sound Georgia.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect along the West Coast of Florida from East Cape Sable northward to Anclote key. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the central Bahamas...including Cat Island...the Exumas...Long Island...Rum Cay...and San Salvador.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the tropical storm watch has been extended northward along the West Coast of Florida to the Ochlockonee River. A tropical storm watch is now in effect from south of Florida City around the southern end of the Florida Peninsula to East Cape Sable...and north of Anclote key along the West Coast to the Ochlockonee River...including Florida Bay...and the Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge. We are reminded that Yom Kippur...a solemn Jewish Holiday...will last until Sundown today. Some of your Jewish neighbors in the watch and warning areas observing Yom Kippur will not be listening to radios or watching TV...and may not be aware of the hurricane situation.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Jeanne was located near latitude 26.5 north...longitude 76.2 west or about 55 miles...90 km...east of Great Abaco Island in the northwestern Bahamas. This position is also about 240 miles...385 km...east of the southeastern coast of Florida.

Jeanne is moving toward the west near 14 mph...22 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On this track...the core of Jeanne will be passing near or over the abaco islands in the next few hours...near or over the remainder of the northwestern Bahamas later today...and approach the southeastern coast of Florida tonight or early Sunday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and Jeanne will likely become a major hurricane later today.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles...335 km.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter is 958 mb...28.29 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near the center of Jeanne on the north side of Grand Bahama Island and on the west side of the abaco islands. Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels can be expected on the west side of the other islands of the Bahamas in the Hurricane Warning area.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall along the Florida East Coast. Tides of 1 to 2 feet above normal are possible in the warned area along the Florida West Coast.

Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches...with isolated higher amounts...are possible along the track of Jeanne over the northwestern Bahamas and Florida.

Dangerous surf and rip currents...caused by large swells generated by Hurricane Jeanne...are possible elsewhere along the southeastern U.S. Coast and the northwest and the Bahamas for the next few days.

Repeating the 5 am EDT position...26.5 N... 76.2 W. Movement toward...west near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 958 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am EDT.

Forecaster Beven

[libtoken]

Hurricane Jeanne Discussion Number 47


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 25, 2004



satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane
hunter aircraft indicate that Jeanne continues to maintain a 40 nm
wide eye. The central pressure has dropped to 958 mb...and the
aircraft reported 700 mb flight-level winds of about 100 kt. This
is the basis for the initial 90 kt intensity. Jeanne is currently
generating very cold cloud tops south of the eye...but a dry slot
is apparent north of the eye. Cirrus outflow is currently fair to
good in all directions. The aircraft reported 110 kt flight-level
winds at 850 mb in the southwestern quadrant...apparently due to an
eyewall mesovortex and the associated intense convection.
The initial motion wobbles between 270/12 and 275/12. Jeanne
remains on the south side of a strong deep-layer ridge...which
large-scale models now forecast to persist long enough to drive
Jeanne into southeastern or east-central Florida in about 24 hr.
Beyond that time...the ridge should weaken and move far enough to
the east to allow Jeanne to turn northwestward...followed by
eventual recurvature into the westerlies. All guidance agrees on
this scenario and has shown a westward shift since the previous
package...but there remain differences on when and where Jeanne
will turn. The official forecast continues the current motion
until landfall in Florida in 24 hr...then turns the cyclone
northwestward and northward up the Florida Peninsula and
northeastward across the southeastern United States. The forecast
track is along the southern edge of the guidance for the first 24
hr...and just east of the model consensus from 24-72 hr. It has
been shifted westward from the previous package...most notably over
the Florida Peninsula.
Guidance now suggests that upper-level winds will remain favorable
for Jeanne to strengthen until landfall. Therefore...the main
restraining factors for development are the current large eye...and
the abundant dry air surrounding the hurricane. SHIPS and the GFDL
both take Jeanne to 100 kt by landfall. Given the current
trends...the intensity forecast will go a little higher and call
for 105 kt. It would not be a surprise to see Jeanne get stronger
than that...and reaching category four status is not out of the
question. Jeanne should steadily weaken after landfall...becoming
a depression over the southeastern United States and eventually
becoming extratropical over the northwestern Atlantic.
Forecaster Beven

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 25/0900z 26.5n 76.2w 90 kt
12hr VT 25/1800z 26.7n 78.2w 100 kt
24hr VT 26/0600z 27.3n 80.3w 105 kt...inland
36hr VT 26/1800z 28.6n 81.9w 75 kt...inland
48hr VT 27/0600z 30.4n 82.5w 45 kt...inland
72hr VT 28/0600z 34.0n 80.5w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 29/0600z 38.5n 72.5w 30 kt...over water
120hr VT 30/0600z 43.0n 62.0w 30 kt...extratropical

[Caipirabob]

Landfall appears to have moved South to the same area as Frances hit. I doubt if this is the final trajectory. Another 24 hours may see it midway through Palm Beach County.

Florida FReepers: FPL has stated that this time, repairs will not happen so quickly for power outages. FPL has strained it's resources to the max in rendering aid to devastated areas of Florida. It's been suggested (not by FPL) that those of you without power should try to take more comfort in the fact you still have a home.

Just the facts we're dealing with now. Prayers for those in the path of Jeanne. I guess that's me, too.

[dawn53]

Well, looks like they're moving the track west.

That's what happened with Ivan in the Caribbean, the track kept moving west.

I'm ready...LOL!

But at the store last night there was plenty of supplies (I was only there to buy stuff for my MIL) and replenish our milk/bread supply.

Water was in good supply, as were batteries, etc.

Hope people are watching this, especially those on the west Coast (that's where I am).

[dawn53]

Here's the computer models.

Question: Why do they all show it coming across the state and turning back or being steered sharply northward? Is that because the remnants of Ivan are still in the Gulf?

[BushCountry]

It would not be a surprise to see Jeanne get stronger than that...and reaching category four status is not out of the question.

People are just tired and not paying much attention to this one for some reason. I had a lot of co-workers leave on the last threat (Ivan), this one they are just saying, "the heck with it!"

[Crazieman]

Jeanne's satellite profile indicates strengthening. Some dry air was absorbed in, but it didn't seem to have any effect. The eyewall filled in, central dense overcast size is increasing and the cloudtops are rising. The eye is more definite. This thing is organizing.

[Dont_Tread_On_Me_888]

There is a ridge that will move east and as it does, will steer Jeanne more northerly then eventually more NE-easterly.

BTW, there is an outside chance it could hit CAT 4. Pressure was 958 milibars last read and as it nears the Florida Coast, the warm waters of the Gulf Strean may allow it to go CAT 4.

Living in Orlando, this is getting real old. I have had neigbors with $4-10,000 out of pocket expenses. I have been fortunate so far and hate to stretch my luck with another hurricane. One Orlando friend spent $11,000 out of pocket deductible on his main home and then will be assessed a huge amount on his heavily damaged condo on the beach. I have heard of others in the area with same problem since many have homes 40 mile seast of here on the beach.

People forget how close where are to the beach in Orlando. As you fly into Orlando approaching from the north, you can see (on a clear day) the Vehicle Assenbly Building at Cape Canaveral out your left window.

If any hurricane hit the Cocoa Beach, Merritt Island area on the right track, Orlando could get a direct hit not much different than being on the beach itself.

[Dont_Tread_On_Me_888]

People are just tired and not paying much attention to this one for some reason. I had a lot of co-workers leave on the last threat (Ivan), this one they are just saying, "the heck with it!"

Those reasons: 1] Jeanne has hung around a long time and has done that crazy cloverleaf loop routine. When it was headed out toward Europe at one point, we said good riddance--could not imagine it coming back. 2] It was just a tropical storm and after getting hit with CAT 4 and 3 hurricanes, this initally looked wimpy. We never though it would go CAT 3 or possibly CAT 4. 3] We are tired of this. Going without power for one hour is an immense hassle. Going without electric power for ten days is hell. Many are not taking this seriously because they are burnt out.

[dawn53]

I'm in St. Pete, and live only 10 minutes from the beach, but we're on the mainland and pretty high (level D evac).

So far we've been very fortunate in this county. Flooding in areas that are prone to flooding, but not much wind damage or structural damage.

Power woes, but hasn't everybody in the state had those, LOL!

Our 2 percent deduct would have us out of pocket for a new roof (our roof is only a year old), but I've heard horror stories about the deduct being recalculated on every storm and am feeling very sorry for those that have taken losses from more than one hurricane.

We just took our boards down last Saturday, if storm intensifies or track has this coming straight across the state, guess we'll put them back up.

We're fortunate in that the city finally picked up our 5 foot high pile of yard debris from Frances this past week.

[BushCountry]

It has been tough -- direct hit from Charley (Port Charlotte area). We survived better than most, but this is getting real old. At least some people still have a sense of humor left. ";^)

[Patton@Bastogne]

.


Dont_Tread_On_Me_888


Going without power for one hour is an immense hassle. Going without electric power for ten days is hell. Many are not taking this seriously because they are burnt out.


I couldn't agree more.

I live here in Tampa (Clearwater) and went through Frnces about 10 days ago, but that included evacuating my ex-wife and four kids (teenagers) from Melbourne, where Frances was expected to hit dead-on as a Category Four.

Ex-wife and kids stayed almost a week, returning to their house with moderate foor damage, but with electric power and water. Many in Melbourne/Palm Bay went without power for almost a week.

Today (Saturday) I'll be buying window tape, fifty lbs of ice, D-batteries, candles (you know the drill) and driving to Melbourne (along with Coleman stove) to ride Jeanne out at the ex-wife and kids' house.

Jeanne may come ashore as a Category Three, but I almost don't care anymore. I'll be with my kids in case anything gets out of hand, which frankly, except for losing power, I don't expect.



Well ... to all in Jeanne's projected path, let's all have a great marquerita, and THEN stay safe.




Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.



General George S. Patton Jr. Website




.

[leadpenny]

Buried in the latest bulletin:

_____________

ATLANTIC PUBLIC/MARINE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MESSAGES ISSUED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS

WTNT31 KNHC 250837
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 47...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004

...CORRECTED TO ADD HEADLINE AND STORM TIDES ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...

~snip~

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO EAST CAPE SABLE...AND NORTH OF ANCLOTE KEY ALONG THE WEST COAST TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.

WE ARE REMINDED THAT YOM KIPPUR...A SOLEMN JEWISH HOLIDAY...WILL LAST UNTIL SUNDOWN TODAY. SOME OF YOUR JEWISH NEIGHBORS IN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS OBSERVING YOM KIPPUR WILL NOT BE LISTENING TO RADIOS OR WATCHING TV...AND MAY NOT BE AWARE OF THE HURRICANE SITUATION.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...90 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 240 MILES...385 KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.

~snip~

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[libtoken]

Will we have Haiti in the US?HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
725 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004

...SPECIAL EVACUATION ADVICE FOR COASTAL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MEDIA OUTLETS PLEASE GIVE WIDEST DISSEMINATION... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO SAINT AUGUSTINE WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...

...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...VOLUSIA...BREVARD... INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...AND MARTIN.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO SAINT AUGUSTINE...WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES FROM MARTIN TO VOLUSIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE HURRICANE WARNING INCLUDES LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 AM EDT...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF STUART FLORIDA. JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR A FLORIDA LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE AROUND MIDNIGHT BETWEEN PALM BEACH AND COCOA BEACH.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
WE ARE CONCERNED AFTER WATCHING SOME NEWS ACCOUNTS REGARDING RESIDENTS OF BARRIER ISLANDS WHO ARE PLANNING TO RIDE OUT HURRICANE JEANNE BASED ON THEIR EXPERIENCES WITH HURRICANE FRANCES. WE HAVE DONE A DETAILED DAMAGE SURVEY OF THE COASTLINE OF THE IMPACT OF HURRICANE FRANCES...AND IT IS IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS TO REALIZE THAT THE WORST WIND AND STORM SURGE FROM FRANCES AFFECTED AN UNPOPULATED AREA OF HUTCHINSON ISLAND BETWEEN FORT PIERCE BEACH AND JENSEN BEACH AND NETTLES ISLAND. THE GREATEST IMPACT WAS FROM NEAR MIDDLE COVE BEACH ACCESS TO HERMAN'S BAY PARK. EVIDENCE OF BATTERING WAVES ON TOP OF STORM SURGE TO A HEIGHT OF 12 FEET OR GREATER...ALONG WITH EXTREME BEACH EROSION AND A BRIDGE FAILURE... WERE NOTED. IMPORTANTLY...PEOPLE LOCATED ON THE NORTH AND SOUTH END OF HUTCHINSON ISLAND DID NOT RECEIVE THE WORST OF THE IMPACTS OF FRANCES.

WE ALSO NOTED THAT VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY EXPERIENCED ONLY CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE EFFECTS FROM FRANCES. SOUTHERN BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES EXPERIENCED CATEGORY ONE TO CATEGORY TWO IMPACTS WITH MARTIN AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES SOLIDLY WITHIN THE CATEGORY TWO IMPACT RANGE. TO BASE YOUR EVACUATION DECISION SOLELY ON YOUR PERSONAL EXPERIENCES DURING FRANCES IS A MISTAKE.

JEANNE WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE INNER EYEWALL MAKES LANDFALL. AT THIS POINT IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN EXACTLY WHERE THIS AREA WILL BE. THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME THIS MORNING TO COMMIT TO EVACUATING AS ADVISED AND MOVE TO SAFETY.
WE HAVE MADE IT THROUGH CHARLEY AND FRANCES WITHOUT ANY DIRECT DEATHS FROM HURRICANE WIND OR WATER IMPACTS...PLEASE FOLLOW ADVICE OF YOUR COUNTY OFFICIALS AND LETS ALL MAKE IT THROUGH THIS AGAIN.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON TODAY...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

HAGEMEYER

[libtoken]

Hurricane Jeanne Intermediate Advisory Number 47a


Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on September 25, 2004



...Eye of Jeanne very near Marsh Harbor on abaco Island...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect along the Florida East Coast from
Florida City northward to St. Augustine...including Lake
Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for the
northwestern Bahamas...including the Abacos...Andros Island...Berry
Islands...Bimini...Eleuthera...Grand Bahama Island...and New
Providence. Preparations to protect life and property throughout
the Hurricane Warning area should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the northeast Florida and
Georgia coasts from north of St. Augustine to Altamaha Sound
Georgia.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the West Coast of
Florida from East Cape Sable northward to Anclote key. A Tropical
Storm Warning remains in effect for the central Bahamas...including
Cat Island...the Exumas...Long Island...Rum Cay...and San Salvador.

A tropical storm watch is now in effect from south of Florida City
around the southern end of the Florida Peninsula to East Cape
Sable...and north of Anclote key along the West Coast to the
Ochlockonee River...including Florida Bay...and the Florida Keys
north of the Seven Mile Bridge.

We are reminded that Yom Kippur...a solemn Jewish Holiday...will
last until Sundown today. Some of your Jewish neighbors in the
watch and warning areas observing Yom Kippur will not be
listening to radios or watching TV...and may not be aware of the
hurricane situation.

At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Hurricane Jeanne was located
by a reconnaissance plane near latitude 26.5 north...longitude 77.0
west just over marsh Harbour...abaco island in the northwestern
Bahamas. This position is also about 190 miles...310 km...east of
the southeastern coast of Florida.

Jeanne is moving toward the west near 14 mph...22 km/hr...and this
motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On this
track...the core of Jeanne will be passing near or over the
remainder of the northwestern Bahamas later today...and approach
the southeastern coast of Florida tonight or early Sunday.
Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland across much of
the Florida Peninsula.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Jeanne will likely become a major hurricane later
today.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 205 miles...335 km. Marsh Harbor just reported sustained winds
of near 46 mph...74 km/hr and a pressure of near 963 mb...28.44
inches.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter
is 957 mb...28.26 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...along
with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near the
center of Jeanne on the north side of Grand Bahama Island and on
the west side of the abaco islands. Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4
feet above normal tide levels can be expected on the west side of
the other islands of the Bahamas in the Hurricane Warning area.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall
along the Florida East Coast.

Tides of 1 to 2 feet above normal are possible in the warned area
along the Florida West Coast.

Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches...with isolated higher amounts
...Are possible along the track of Jeanne over the northwestern
Bahamas and Florida.

Dangerous surf and rip currents...caused by large swells generated
by Hurricane Jeanne...are possible elsewhere along the southeastern
U.S. Coast and the northwest and the Bahamas for the next few days.

Repeating the 8 am EDT position...26.5 N... 77.0 W. Movement
toward...west near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 957 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[I still care]

Here in Hudson (Pasco) looks like we are getting hurricane force, though not as bad as some others.

It looks like Frances, except Frances was really slow, so by the time it got here it had calmed down quite a bit and we only got TS force. Just the same, friends down the block lost their house because their roof came off.

This one is moving faster, so it should still be a hurricane by the time it gets here. Guess we are doing some shopping this am. I have a privacy fence and I keep worrying about losing it.

This is getting really old really fast.

[shield]

bmp

[shield]

New thread for today....ping your list please!! Thanks.

[SE Mom]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1226729/posts

This one is started already-

[IYAAYAS]

Living in Ft lauderdale I thought I was out of immediate danger until I saw this: http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/global/Region/g4/2xpxIRSatellite.html
Looks to me like it's now headed SW...opinions?