Posted on 09/27/2004 7:32:13 PM PDT by Axion
Summary
A French citizen was killed in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on Sept. 26. Sources close to the French government have said the victim might have been working in concert with French intelligence in the peninsula -- which suggests militants might have penetrated a Western security and intelligence apparatus through allies in the Saudi intelligence community. While the level of penetration is unknown, it could portend a dire future for Westerners and the fight against jihadists in the kingdom.
Analysis
A French citizen identified as Laurent Barbot was shot dead outside a food market in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, shortly after midnight Sept. 26. Sources close to the French government have suggested -- despite reports that he was a telecommunications engineer -- Barbot was working on behalf of French intelligence agencies in the kingdom. According to sources, Barbot had long been working on behalf of French intelligence in places like Lebanon, Benin and Equatorial Guinea. He was by no means an amateur.
If Barbot was in fact working with French intelligence, his death -- and the manner in which he was slain -- suggests his killers had successfully penetrated Western intelligence cells in the kingdom, something that could not have been done without the assistance of the Saudi intelligence and security apparatus. If this is true, Barbot's death highlights not only the continued dangers to Westerners in the kingdom but also the overall sketchiness of Saudi security.
Since May and the attack against oil company employees in Yanbu, militants have increasingly targeted Westerners for assassination and abduction. For the most part, these attacks could be attributed to two groups: the first, Islamist militants carrying out well-planned assaults against specific Westerners; the second, homegrown jihadists taking potshots at the first white face they see.
The first group was responsible for the high-profile abduction of Paul Johnson -- who was eventually beheaded -- and a series of other killings. These operations usually are sophisticated, involving relatively professional pre-operational surveillance and planning. The attackers learn the travel, social and work habits of their targets over time and can attack at the most vulnerable point. It seems this was the tactic used in the killing of Barbot. Sources within Western security services operating in the kingdom told Stratfor that Barbot was killed when two rounds were fired through the driver's side windshield of his sport utility vehicle -- not the mark of amateurs.
The second group's attacks seem more like target-of-opportunity slayings than the well-planned and choreographed jihadist operations. This second group most likely carried out attacks like the one that killed one BBC employee and wounded another on June 6 in Riyadh. The multiple rounds used and the fact that one Westerner survived the attack shows the attackers had far less expertise than in some other cases. While this second group has carried out deadly attacks, they are nowhere near as dangerous as their counterparts -- although there is an inherent danger that their actions will inspire even more to take up arms against Westerners.
These two groups -- operating not necessarily in tandem but more or less in line with each other -- posed enough danger to Western expatriates in Saudi Arabia. The implications of Barbot's assassination suggest there might be an even more dangerous group operating in the kingdom: the Saudi government.
Stratfor has learned from sources within the French government that Paris operates a quasi-intelligence cell in Saudi Arabia under the guise of a security firm that works with both French and Saudi intelligence. The firm is ostensibly owned and operated by members of the ruling royal family. Since that is the case, the circumstances suggest that elements within the Saudi intelligence community could have had a hand in the Barbot killing.
While it is possible he was killed by Islamist militants acting alone, that he was assassinated with such precision while outside a food market, after midnight, on a Sunday morning suggests that this was not a traditional assassination involving a traditional time and place. The professionalism of the shooting discounts the target-of-opportunity possibility as well, leaving one likely scenario: Barbot was assassinated with the assistance of Saudi intelligence agencies who would have known, based on their experience with French intelligence operations in the kingdom, where Barbot would be shortly after midnight in Jeddah on a Sunday morning.
Signs seem to point to this scenario as the most probable. If it is true, and if certain elements of the Saudi intelligence services have been compromised enough to result in the death of an experienced Western intelligence agent, it not only sheds light onto the ongoing security problem within Saudi Arabia, but also offers even more evidence that the agencies charged with cleaning up the problem are not to be trusted either.
That, in turn, suggests that the job of ridding Saudi Arabia of militants will be even harder than expected -- and that the job cannot be done unless Saudi security services are purged of Islamist militant agents and sympathizers.
Copyrights 2004 - Strategic Forecasting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Given the level of duplicity I have seen the French capable of, who is to say the French did not kill him in a ploy to create FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt). I put nothing past them.
This article is long on assumption and short on facts. One assumption I refuse to make is that any French intelliigence assets were working in tandem with US interests.
In fact, I am inclined to turn the whole conclusion of this speculation on its head.
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