Gallup: Dead Heat in Ohio [LV W 50% Kerry 48%; RV Kerry 50% W 46%]

CNN | September 29, 2004

[kesg]

Grim FReeper Club?? You guys need a logo.

[LS]

No, it ain't gonna be "razor sharp," and Kerry won't come close. I've said this for a year: Bush with at least 320 Evs, possibly 350 or more.

I live in OH, and I spoke yesterday to the B/C04 chairman for Montgomery Co., which is the swing area in the state, and while I won't tell you the numbers, I will tell you this much: Ohio is NOT in play. Period.

[traderrob6]

i've been looking for verification for 2 1/2 hrs now and have yet to find an iota

[slowhand520]

The Poll was mentioned by Paula Zahn to Judy Woodruff. Here is the transcript. Scroll to the Bottom

http://www.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0409/29/ip.01.html

[Don'tMessWithTexas]

Precisely. With a JA hovering around 54%, GWB is in excellent shape. Don't be complacent and don't get wobbly. Steady as she goes, boys.

[kesg]

Okay, it is nearly 6:00 PM Central Time and this mythical new Gallup poll for Ohio still hasn't shown up anywhere. :)Maybe CNN was reporting the women vote or something.

[Future Useless Eater]

I'm John Kerry and I approve this commercial

[Ravi]

That does confirm what I see on the ground here in NE Kentucky, SE Ohio. I live across the Ohio river and I work with lots of people from Ohio. I have found very few people voting for Kerry in this working class, rural town.

[Coop]

Very bad news.

Oh brother... [rolling eyes]

[conservativepoet]

Thanks for that info. I really am suspicious that Gallop may have polled over the weekend thereby giving Dems. better than normal numbers.

[kesg]

Okay, I saw it. Thanks.

[demlosers]

No poll details that I see.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"The poll is almost a month old and out of date."

---

If it's almost a month old, why did they announce it today on CNN? And since Gallup last released an OH poll on Sept. 7, and it showed Bush up by 8% among likely voters, this must be a more recent poll than that.

BTW, I think Bush is ahead by at least 5% in OH, since that's what the aggregate of the polls states, but I would have much rather if the Gallup poll for OH had shown Bush up by at least that amount.

[LS]

I'm talking about other OH polls and some info I have from BC04 here. It ain't close.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Bad News Ping

Bad news?!?"

---

Well, it's not a Good News Ping, that's for sure. Gallup showing Bush up by 2% in PA would be good news, but showing him up by only 2% in OH when he was up by 8% on their September 7 poll sounds like bad news to me. I'm not saying that the end is near or anything, just that it's not the result I expected from an OH poll at this time.

[HostileTerritory]

If you're also talking about the number of identified voters that B/C'04 has, I wouldn't be sanguine about the numbers the 'RATs have. I thought they were flooding the counties with new registrations after they didn't do anything for turnout in 2000.

[Tribune7]

It looks like the data is three weeks old.

[LS]

Lemme just give you a non-scientific, but very telling, indicator. I've been doing "stickerology" for three weeks: I count EVERY "hate Bush" sticker as Kerry, plus, obviously, every Kerry sticker; I ONLY count Bush stickers as Bush---not "God Bless America," American flags, or "Support Our Troops" (3/4 of whom will, for reasons I won't go into, vote for Bush, I'm sure); and I'm careful not to count cars more than once. If in doubt at all, I don't count either way.

I'm at 182 Bush, 60 Kerry. I also noticed yard signs, which are 2:1 Bush. Now, this is in the older central suburbs of Dayton, which are heavily Dem, not the new suburbs which are overwhelmingly GOP.

[Coop]

Undecideds don't break for the incumbent as a general rule. Now get back to work! The Kerry campaign needs you!

[HostileTerritory]

This is a new poll, the Sept. 4-7 is for reference from an older poll. Lots of people are making this mistake because of the formatting and lack of internals.