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Gallup: Dead Heat in Ohio [LV W 50% Kerry 48%; RV Kerry 50% W 46%]
CNN | September 29, 2004

Posted on 09/29/2004 1:26:45 PM PDT by RWR8189

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To: HostileTerritory

People are getting overly hysterical about these "new registrations." 1) A person can move from one town to another and have to re-register. That counts on the voter lists as a "new registration." 2) Even if ALL the "new registrations" were Dems (which they aren't), only 1/2 of registered voters vote in any election. By the time you flush out all the non-voters and location-changers, all these "new registrations" aren't gonna mean squat.


181 posted on 09/29/2004 4:08:54 PM PDT by LS
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To: COURAGE
Accually, the undecided in a presidential elections usally brake for the imcumbent.

I don't think I would have "braked" for Clinton in 1996 if he was in front of me...

182 posted on 09/29/2004 4:09:20 PM PDT by Lurking2Long
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To: Coop
Actually according to Pat Cadell they do break for the incumbent in Presidential elections.
183 posted on 09/29/2004 4:09:31 PM PDT by KJacob (God's purpose is never the same as man's purpose.)
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To: LS

Plus if the recent polls show PA neck and neck, there aint no way that it's similarly close in OH. Recent polls in WV also show a comfortable lead.


184 posted on 09/29/2004 4:10:15 PM PDT by Don'tMessWithTexas
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To: RWR8189
Well, If they took the poll during this

Then there was 50,000-60,000 people voting for George Bush not home to answer the phone

185 posted on 09/29/2004 4:21:22 PM PDT by qam1 (McGreevy likes his butts his way, I like mine my way - so NO SMOKING BANS in New Jersey)
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To: Coop

Undecided voters


Posted on 08/05/2004 6:05:01 AM PDT by LI conservative


Former Dean campaign manager, Joe Trippi, appeared on Hardball last night to discuss the election. He made an interesting comment which I don't know whether it is true or not, but if it is, it's good news for Bush. According to Trippi, unlike other elections, in a presidential election, undecided voters break for the incumbent, not the challenger.


186 posted on 09/29/2004 4:26:46 PM PDT by COURAGE (A charter member of the Grim FReeper Club)
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To: KJacob; COURAGE
...most undecided voters typically back the [Presidential] challengers...

...is evidence in survey research that in seven out of ten [Presidential] races involving an incumbent...the challenger is likely to win more undecided voters than the incumbent

It seems to make little difference whether the contest is for president, governor, the Senate or the House of Representatives; the challenger gets the lion's share of the undecided vote.

187 posted on 09/29/2004 4:26:57 PM PDT by Coop (In memory of a true hero - Pat Tillman)
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To: Coop

They are wrong.


188 posted on 09/29/2004 4:31:53 PM PDT by COURAGE (A charter member of the Grim FReeper Club)
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To: COURAGE

Yes, you are. Now get back to work polishing your flip flops.


189 posted on 09/29/2004 4:32:37 PM PDT by Coop (In memory of a true hero - Pat Tillman)
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To: COURAGE

I agree. In countless elections we have heard "the incumbent is under 50% so that is a bad sign!" and that person has gone on to win again. True the undecideds broke for Carter in 1976 but President Ford had a much worse economy to run on, and he never inspired much confidence in a lot of people.

There is no mention of this Gallup Ohio poll on Gallup's website, on CNN or USA Today's sites. Is it possible this was an error, or a fraud??


190 posted on 09/29/2004 4:34:39 PM PDT by TNCMAXQ
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To: TNCMAXQ

Could be. This one came as a surprise to me.


191 posted on 09/29/2004 4:39:37 PM PDT by COURAGE (A charter member of the Grim FReeper Club)
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To: TNCMAXQ

The 1976 election was closer (and it shouldn't) than every one thought. The undecided voters slightly went to Ford. The decided voters, Carter had a big lead, but the undecided voters went to Ford, but not enough to win.


192 posted on 09/29/2004 4:44:23 PM PDT by COURAGE (A charter member of the Grim FReeper Club)
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To: DrDeb
Deb:

There is a lot of media about absentee requests being abnormally high. What is the procedure/checking system in Ohio?

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/28/politics/campaign/28iowa.html

RW Apple articular on Iowas absentees from NYT
193 posted on 09/29/2004 5:00:13 PM PDT by reformedliberal (When the elites speak their power to our truth, they have given us cause for revolution)
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To: reformedliberal

articular=article

durn spell check


194 posted on 09/29/2004 5:06:14 PM PDT by reformedliberal (When the elites speak their power to our truth, they have given us cause for revolution)
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To: TNCMAXQ

I doubt it. Paula Zahn will announce the details tonight on her show.


195 posted on 09/29/2004 5:07:02 PM PDT by conservativepoet
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To: conservativepoet

Just saw this same Ohio poll referenced at DU. Apparantly, the poster said Gallup e-mailed it to him (part of a premium service?)


196 posted on 09/29/2004 5:14:53 PM PDT by Lurking2Long
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To: ambrose
If Gallup begins to show polls tighten, in the absence of confirmation from other major polls, it may suggest the MoveOn attacks have had their intended effect.

It's also possible that all the Left-Wing criticism of Gallup ("right-wing Christian bias", "over-sampling" Republicans) is having it's intended effect.

197 posted on 09/29/2004 6:17:16 PM PDT by pawdoggie
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Confirmation of poll:

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=politicsNews&storyID=6371525


198 posted on 09/29/2004 7:33:58 PM PDT by okstate
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To: okstate

I live in Ohio and I find this unbelievable.
There was a Bush rally on Monday where I live and 60,000 people turned out for it, Bush's biggest rally total so far.


199 posted on 09/30/2004 6:51:13 AM PDT by peppermint
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I live in Ohio and I don't believe this poll. There was a Bush rally on Monday where I live and 60,000 people turned out for it. 35,000 was expected.
Also, I'm not seeing much of the moveon.org ads here in Cincinnati. Mostly we see the Bush ads.


200 posted on 09/30/2004 6:55:15 AM PDT by peppermint
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