Posted on 10/03/2004 3:07:34 PM PDT by West Coast Conservative
Somewhere there was a quote from a Bush campaign guy who said they never thought they were 11 points ahead and they expected the race to tighten because it always does.
The campaign is still in better shape now than all year, especially in the Gore states. As Chris said, follow the ad money, and this tells you more than the polls.
People are looking for anything to hang onto in this election...this is GWB's fault; he had ample opportunity to hit kerri hard on Thursday but passed them up. Never once did our President mention kerri's senatorial record when kerri talked about "increasing our military"!!!
I am here in Florida for two weeks and watching kerri spend zillions on commercials...this dirtbag (kerri) just ended one of his commercials stating his economic plan for America will rely on "American ingenuity and not the Saudi royal family!"
Somebody at the GOP best wake up and start to hit back hard!
this may be for the best - there's no room for complacency now.
With the current poll, they oversampled Democrats. The poster dvwjr has catalogued this. The truth is that the Newsweek weighted numbers have been steady at about 49-43.
the sky is most definitely not falling. I believe that the Gallup poll is accurate, but I also believe that they were polling people right after the debate, getting instant rather than considered reaction. Give it a while and I think the polls will settle back down to a 4-6 pt lead for the president. However, in the meantime, I think we should face facts. Right now, for whatever reason, Kerry has the mo
excuse me I resemble that comment:
if it is 49-49 you can bet Bush's lead in Wi and IA are gone Kerry is probably up in both and the 5-10 point leads in FL and OH are now dead heats.
John Forbes Kambodia(Kerry) is a cheese-eating surrender monkey!!!
do not believe it
Did you get bored posting at DU?
again, it all depends on the internals. When did they poll? What was the party affilliation in these polls?
Without knowing this, the poll means nothing.
Also, having undecideds break from 8-10% consistantly to only 1% of the sample is incredibly suspicious. At this point I can only believe they were 'pushing' the undecideds.
dvjr does a good breakdown of polls a couple of times a week that includes all this data.
DNC Video of debate BACKFIRES! LA Times Poll Bush's Favorability Up
http://www.ejsmithweb.com/fr/faces_fr_fast.wmv
Watch this DNC video that FReeper smith288 edited to see what an idiot Kerry is! LOL
LA TIMES POLL SUNDAY: Bush's favorability rating among debate viewers actually improved slightly (although within the survey's margin of error). Before debate, 51% of watchers viewed Bush favorably, 49% unfavorably; after, numbers were 52% and 47%...
KERRY VS. KERRY
Kerry’s Top Ten Iraq Flip Flops
From First Debate
http://www.rnc.org/RNCResearch/Read.aspx?ID=4775
ONE: Claimed “I’ll Never Give A Veto To Any Country Over Our Security.” (Sen. John Kerry, First Presidential Debate, Miami, FL, 9/30/04)
ü Preemption Must Pass “Global Test” First. “No president, though all of American history, has ever ceded, and nor would I, the right to preempt in any way necessary to protect the United States of America. But if and when you do it, Jim, you have to do it in a way that passes the test, that passes the global test where your countrymen, your people understand fully why you’re doing what you’re doing and you can prove to the world that you did it for legitimate reasons.” (Sen. John Kerry, First Presidential Debate, Miami, FL, 9/30/04)
ü Kerry Would Wait On French And Russians To Defend America. SEN. JOHN KERRY: “I would have done what was necessary to know that you had exhausted the available remedies with the French and the Russians.” (MSNBC’s “Hardball,” 10/20/03)
TWO: Claimed “Reason For Going To War Was Weapons Of Mass Destruction, Not The Removal Of Saddam Hussein.” (Sen. John Kerry, First Presidential Debate, Miami, FL, 9/30/04)
ü Kerry Said “Greatest Threat” Was Saddam’s “Miscalculation,” Not “Actual” WMDs. KERRY: “I would disagree with John McCain that it’s the actual weapons of mass destruction he may use against us, it’s what he may do in another invasion of Kuwait or in a miscalculation about the Kurds or a miscalculation about Iran or particularly Israel. Those are the things that – that I think present the greatest danger. He may even miscalculate and slide these weapons off to terrorist groups to invite them to be a surrogate to use them against the United States. It’s the miscalculation that poses the greatest threat.” (CBS’ “Face The Nation,” 9/15/02)
THREE: Claimed “This President Has Made, I Regret To Say, A Colossal Error Of Judgment. And Judgment Is What We Look For In The President Of The United States Of America.” (Sen. John Kerry, First Presidential Debate, Miami, FL, 9/30/04)
ü Kerry Questioned Judgment Of Those Claiming Saddam’s Capture Didn’t Help U.S. Security. “Those who doubted whether Iraq or the world would be better off without Saddam Hussein and those who believe today that we are not safer with his capture don’t have the judgment to be president or the credibility to be elected president.” (CNN’s “Capital Gang,” 12/20/03; Anne Q. Hoy, “Dean Faces More Criticism,” [New York] Newsday, 12/17/03)
FOUR: Complained “We Are 90 Percent Of The Casualties And 90 Percent Of The Cost: $200 Billion – $200 Billion That Could Have Been Used For Health Care, For Schools, For Construction, For Prescription Drugs For Seniors, And It’s In Iraq.” (Sen. John Kerry, First Presidential Debate, Miami, FL, 9/30/04)
ü Kerry Pledged To Fund Reconstruction With “Whatever Number” Of Dollars It Took. NBC’S TIM RUSSERT: “Do you believe that we should reduce funding that we are now providing for the operation in Iraq?” SEN. JOHN KERRY: “No. I think we should increase it.” RUSSERT: “Increase funding?” KERRY: “Yes.” RUSSERT: “By how much?” KERRY: “By whatever number of billions of dollars it takes to win. It is critical that the United States of America be successful in Iraq, Tim.” (NBC’s “Meet The Press,” 8/31/03)
FIVE: Claimed “You Don’t Send Troops To War Without The Body Armor That They Need.” (Sen. John Kerry, First Presidential Debate, Miami, FL, 9/30/04)
ü Kerry Said It Would Be Reckless And “Irresponsible” To Vote Against Funding For Troops. LOS ANGELES TIMES’ DOYLE McMANUS: “If that amendment does not pass, will you then vote against the $87 billion?” KERRY: “I don’t think any United States senator is going to abandon our troops and recklessly leave Iraq to whatever follows as a result of simply cutting and running. That’s irresponsible. What is responsible is for the administration to do this properly now. And I am laying out the way in which the administration could unite the American people, could bring other countries to the table, and I think could give the American people a sense that they’re on the right track. There’s a way to do this properly. But I don’t think anyone in the Congress is going to not give our troops ammunition, not give our troops the ability to be able to defend themselves. We’re not going to cut and run and not do the job.” (CBS’ “Face The Nation,” 9/14/03)
ü Kerry Voted Against Senate Passage Of Iraq/Afghanistan Reconstruction Package That Included “Money For Body Armor For Soldiers.” (S. 1689, CQ Vote #400: Passed 87-12: R 50-0; D 37-11; I 0-1, 10/17/03, Kerry Voted Nay; “Highlights Of Iraq, Afghanistan Measures,” The Associated Press, 10/17/03)
ü ‘“I Actually Did Vote For The $87 Billion Before I Voted Against It,’ [Kerry] Said.”(Glen Johnson, “Kerry Blasts Bush On Protecting Troops,” The Boston Globe, 3/17/04)
SIX: Said Americans In Iraq Not Dying For “Mistake.” PBS’ JIM LEHRER: “Are Americans now dying in Iraq for a mistake?” KERRY: “No, and they don’t have to, providing we have the leadership that we put – that I’m offering.” (Sen. John Kerry, First Presidential Debate, Miami, FL, 9/30/04)
ü Earlier In Debate, Kerry Called Iraq War “Mistake.” “We can’t leave a failed Iraq. But that doesn’t mean it wasn’t a mistake of judgment to go there and take the focus off of Osama bin Laden. It was.” (Sen. John Kerry, First Presidential Debate, Miami, FL, 9/30/04)
ü “But The President Made A Mistake In Invading Iraq.” (Sen. John Kerry, First Presidential Debate, Miami, FL, 9/30/04)
SEVEN: Said Knowing What He Knows Now, “Would Not” Have Authorized Use Of Force. “What I think troubles a lot of people in our country is that the president has just sort of described one kind of mistake. But what he has said is that, even knowing there were no weapons of mass destruction, even knowing there was no imminent threat, even knowing there was no connection with al Qaeda, he would still have done everything the same way. Those are his words. Now, I would not.” (Sen. John Kerry, First Presidential Debate, Miami, FL, 9/30/04)
ü Said Knowing What He Knows Now, “Would Have Voted For The Authority.” SEN. JOHN KERRY: “Yes, I would have voted for the authority. I believe it’s the right authority for a president to have. But I would have used that authority as I have said throughout this campaign, effectively. I would have done this very differently from the way President Bush has.” (CNN’s “Inside Politics,” 8/9/04)
EIGHT: Claimed “The President Says That I’m Denigrating These Troops. I Have Nothing But Respect For The British, Tony Blair, And For What They’ve Been Willing To Do.” (Sen. John Kerry, First Presidential Debate, Miami, FL, 9/30/04)
ü Kerry Dismissed Coalition Partners As “Window Dressing” And Claimed They’re Not Sharing Burden Of War And Reconstruction. CNN’S BILL HEMMER: “The White House would say that dozens of countries are helping now in the effort on the ground in Iraq and they are engaged with the U.N., as well, how would more international involvement prevent the violence we’re seeing today?” SEN. JOHN KERRY: “Well, the fact is that those countries are really window dressing to the greatest degree. And they weren’t there in the beginning when we went in, and they’re not carrying the cost of this war.” (CNN’s “American Morning,” 3/2/04)
NINE: Claimed “I’ve Had One Position, One Consistent Position, That Saddam Hussein Was A Threat.” (Sen. John Kerry, First Presidential Debate, Miami, FL, 9/30/04)
ü Kerry Said, “We Now Know That Iraq Had No Weapons Of Mass Destruction, And Posed No Imminent Threat To Our Security.” (Sen. John Kerry, Remarks At New York University, New York, NY, 9/20/04)
TEN: Claimed “My Position Has Been Consistent: Saddam Hussein Is A Threat. He Needed To Be Disarmed.” (Sen. John Kerry, First Presidential Debate, Miami, FL, 9/30/04)
ü “Saying There Are Weapons Of Mass Destruction In Iraq Doesn’t Make It So.” (Sen. John Kerry, Remarks To Democrat National Convention, Boston, MA, 7/29/04)
ü “I Have Always Said We May Yet Even Find Weapons Of Mass Destruction.” (Fox News’ “Fox News Sunday,” 12/14/03)
This election has proven what an absoulte political amature Hillary is.
Should Kerry win and Guliani or Pataki run for Senate in NY in 2006, she could be in for the nightmare of here life.
She is only a point or two from facing her worst fears
10-14 states and DC are just out of reach and always have been.
Bush will win his 2000 states and a few more, for 325 or so EVs (+/- 25), as I have said all along.
Anything more than that is fantasyland.
I remember the "big Bush victory" talk before the 2000 election on this forum and we all know how that went. He got 271 EV the last time and you say 325 plus/minus 25!? I doubt that! I'll settle for 271 again if need be but with the huge DemocRAT vote fraud that will take place this time, I would say Bush might not win at all the way things look now. He took a huge hit on BOTH the IEM and Tradesports and while they aren't actual polls IEM predicted a close win for Bush in 2000.
President Bush, whom I admire greatly, was a fool to allow Skerry to get away with all of those lies...
Not a single cent spent on bridges and tunnels?... Bush lied on everything re: Iraq?... No body armor, the troops need to get stuff on the internet (never mind the fact that Skerry voted AGAINST that bill)?... On and on.
That was the point we can all point to as the turning point, if Skerry wins...
Now Bush goes on the campaign trail and blasts Skerry... He's speaking to the choir... Where the hell was he the previous night
For those of you that think he was tired, etc, spare me... He and Cheney have allowed the Dems to spew their lies UNCHALLENGED for almost 2 years... No wonder so many Americans hate them, these lies have been cemented as truth to many Americans, absent a challenge to them
Don't believe me? Tell me where the President or Cheney have challenged Kennedy's rants (Lie after lie, concocted in Texas, etc)...
What a missed opportunity. What a disgraceful debate performance.
I'm not pooh-poohing bad news, but some of you all have to face REALITY, and that doesn't mean always sayuing "Bush is doomed!" Look at the trends, the states. This is a statistical tie right after Kerry's mega-huge-giganto win. And it's a tie in the national popularity contest, not state by state polling. Wait, just wait, and stop whining.
"A month is eternity in politics."
You said it. We have four weeks - many things will happen in that time. You just have to go with the flow.
Is it me or did this start to happen in ernest in the early 90's? I know we have been drifting that way for some time but as a guy in his mod 40's, I swear I can remember it was different!
oh please. Get real.
a 10 point bush lead in wisconsin isn't going to evaporate because of one gallup poll showing 49/49 - when we don't even know the internals.
Sell doom and gloom somewhere else newbie.
Look, I think there is definitely reason to question Newsweak. They are clearly partisan. Gallup is not and their methodology is quite sound.
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I agree. That is why I am concerned about Gallup. The one thing to remember, though, is that GOP ALWAYS polls poorly during the weekends. That is a fact.
But losing an 8 point lead during the debate which wasnt THAT bad.. that does smell a little.
best wait for the internals. I agree with Dick Morris. Bush's handlers should be SHOT at this point.
Obviously appears to be the case. Acts and smells like a troll.
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