Australian Election

vanity | 9th October 2004 | naturalman1975

[naturalman1975]

I hesitate to suggest this, as I am fairly new around here, but I have noticed that there is quite a lot of interest in the Australian eleciton, so I thought I would make an offer here. I will be watching the election coverage and if people are interested, as the coverage proceeds, I can post updates in this thread, so people can follow what is happening in Australia.

Just an offer. Coverage starts in 15 minutes.

Oh and if any other Aussies want to post updates as well, of course, I wouldn't object. It's just I can see interest.

[naturalman1975]

2 Labor seats in Tasmania still looking like going Liberal

[naturalman1975]

Difficult to extrapolate Tasmanian results nationally, because of recent Forestry announcements specific to Tasmania.

[Byron_the_Aussie]

Via Tim Blair:

Morgan poll tips Labor win October 9, 2004 POLLSTER Gary Morgan has again put his reputation on the line, going against the trend in other polls by forecasting a close Labor win tonight. Mr Morgan, whose company Roy Morgan Research tipped a landslide victory by Kim Beazley in the 2001 election, has put the Labor Party ahead on a two-party preferred basis by 51 per cent to 49 per cent. Mr Morgan said the result was too close to call because it hinged on marginal coalition seats, with the serious possibility of a hung parliament.

[Primetimedonna]

Hate to admit to my ignorance, but I am unfamiliar with your Party system. Can you clarify what the different parties represent, and which is the party of Mr. Howard?


Thanks, and again I apologize for my ignorance!!

[naturalman1975]

Liberal/National Coalition = Mid-range Conservative, current government headed by Prime Minister John Howard, supports war in Iraq, war on terror. Supports US in most matters.

Labor = Moderate Socialist, currently headed by Opposition Leader Mark Latham, has pledged to bring Australian troops home from Iraq by Christmas. Anti-George Bush (described him as most dangerous man alive).

The above are the two groups that can form government.

Minor parties of some relevance:

Greens - environmentalist, hard left
Democrats - soft left, social democrats
Family First - conservative Christian party

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

From what I can gather.. correct me if I am wrong:

Liberals and Nationalists -- the good guys

Labor -- the bad guys

[texasflower]

I am interested as well. Thank you for doing this.

[Primetimedonna]

Thanks for the clarification! Your recap was excellant & most informative. Thanks also for starting this thread!

[ozguy]

Liberals- Conservative party (John Howard)
Labour- Left Wing Party (Mark Latham)

[naturalman1975]

Count in Tasmania well-advanced.

Seat - Braddon - currenly Labor, looking very likely to go to the Liberals. Liberal gain.

Seat - Lyons - currently Labor, looking to remain Labor but with reduced result

Seat - Bass - currently Labor, looking very likely to go to the Liberals. Liberal gain.

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

What does a reduced result mean?

[Primetimedonna]

It's going to be hard to think of the Liberals as the good guys!!!!! Thank you, too, for the education!!

[naturalman1975]

Michelle O'Byrne, Labor Member for Bass - says she is still hoping, is used to long counts (last time it took ten days!). Very close seat.

Prime Minister visited seat this week, and announced popular Forestry policy.

[naturalman1975]

Reduced result = winning with a smaller amount than last time. Labor will hold the seat, but are getting less votes than at the last election, which suggests closer seats may change hands.

[naturalman1975]

Very early count shows 18 seats Coalition, 8 Labor.

[naturalman1975]

Nick Minchin, Liberal Minister, BIG SMILE ON FACE, things Liberals will win at least one Tasmanian seat.

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

Gotcha. it's still winner take all though. Seems like early results look very good. Do certain precincts hold out until the end like the Rat precincts do here?

Latest Seat Results

Electorates ordered by recency of update

1.1% counted. Last updated Sat Oct 9 06:26PM EST
Time	Count %	Electorate	Seat Held By	Margin	2PP %	Swing	Predict
18:26	0.4	Gwydir	NAT	14.9	66.2	1.3% to NAT
18:26	0.1	Calwell	ALP	15.2	39.9	5.1% to LIB
18:26	27.8	Bass	ALP	2.1	52.8	4.9% to LIB	LIB GAIN
18:26	36.8	Franklin	ALP	8.0	55.8	2.2% to LIB	ALP RETAIN
18:25	0.1	Eden-Monaro	LIB	1.7	55.8	4.1% to LIB
18:25	1.0	Gilmore	LIB	14.6	63.9	0.7% to ALP
18:25	0.2	Lyne	NAT	11.2	66.3	5.1% to NAT
18:25	0.3	Parkes	NAT	8.7	66.0	7.3% to NAT
18:25	0.1	Richmond	NAT	1.7	53.5	5.1% to ALP
18:25	0.2	Corio	ALP	8.5	57.4	1.1% to LIB
18:25	0.1	Gippsland	NAT	2.6	58.3	5.8% to NAT
18:25	0.5	Indi	LIB	10.7	64.2	3.5% to LIB
18:25	48.8	Braddon	ALP	6.0	50.9	6.9% to LIB	LIB GAIN
18:25	43.8	Lyons	ALP	8.2	53.5	4.7% to LIB	ALP RETAIN
18:24	0.1	Maranoa	NAT	15.4	69.7	4.3% to NAT
18:24	46.3	Denison	ALP	14.3	63.5	0.8% to LIB	ALP RETAIN
18:23	0.8	Calare	OTH	25.0	59.4	15.6% to NAT
18:23	0.1	Cowper	NAT	4.7	52.1	2.6% to ALP
18:23	0.6	Riverina	NAT	19.9	70.8	0.9% to NAT
18:23	0.1	Wannon	LIB	9.2	61.9	2.6% to LIB
18:22	0.1	Kingsford Smith	ALP	8.9	55.9	3.0% to LIB
18:22	0.1	Page	NAT	2.8	56.1	3.3% to NAT
18:22	0.2	Bendigo	ALP	3.5	64.0	10.5% to ALP
18:22	0.1	Blair	LIB	6.6	60.1	3.5% to LIB
18:22	0.2	Groom	LIB	15.1	65.2	0.1% to LIB
18:21	0.2	Hunter	ALP	10.9	68.8	7.9% to ALP
18:21	0.2	Paterson	LIB	1.4	57.8	6.3% to LIB
18:21	0.1	McMillan	LIB	2.8	59.8	6.9% to LIB
18:20	0.2	Bradfield	LIB	21.2	79.2	8.1% to LIB
18:20	0.1	Murray	LIB	21.9	75.8	3.9% to LIB
18:18	0.1	Charlton	ALP	6.7	56.0	0.6% to LIB
	0.0	Banks	ALP	2.9	0.0
	0.0	Barton	ALP	6.0	0.0
	0.0	Bennelong	LIB	7.7	0.0
	0.0	Berowra	LIB	15.6	0.0
	0.0	Blaxland	ALP	15.2	0.0
	0.0	Chifley	ALP	15.3	0.0
	0.0	Cook	LIB	14.0	0.0
	0.0	Cunningham	GRN	2.2	0.0
	0.0	Dobell	LIB	0.4	0.0
	0.0	Farrer	LIB	16.4	0.0
	0.0	Fowler	ALP	21.5	0.0
	0.0	Grayndler	ALP	21.3	0.0
	0.0	Greenway	ALP	3.1	0.0
	0.0	Hughes	LIB	10.4	0.0
	0.0	Hume	LIB	9.8	0.0
	0.0	Lindsay	LIB	5.5	0.0
	0.0	Lowe	ALP	3.8	0.0
	0.0	Macarthur	LIB	7.0	0.0
	0.0	Mackellar	LIB	16.9	0.0
	0.0	Macquarie	LIB	8.7	0.0
	0.0	Mitchell	LIB	21.3	0.0
	0.0	New England	OTH	8.3	0.0
	0.0	Newcastle	ALP	6.9	0.0
	0.0	North Sydney	LIB	13.2	0.0
	0.0	Parramatta	LIB	1.2	0.0
	0.0	Prospect	ALP	12.8	0.0
	0.0	Reid	ALP	16.9	0.0
	0.0	Robertson	LIB	7.0	0.0
	0.0	Shortland	ALP	8.8	0.0
	0.0	Sydney	ALP	15.0	0.0
	0.0	Throsby	ALP	15.1	0.0
	0.0	Warringah	LIB	12.7	0.0
	0.0	Watson	ALP	17.3	0.0
	0.0	Wentworth	LIB	7.9	0.0
	0.0	Werriwa	ALP	8.5	0.0
	0.0	Aston	LIB	6.0	0.0
	0.0	Ballarat	ALP	3.2	0.0
	0.0	Batman	ALP	25.1	0.0
	0.0	Bruce	ALP	6.5	0.0
	0.0	Casey	LIB	7.2	0.0
	0.0	Chisholm	ALP	2.7	0.0
	0.0	Corangamite	LIB	5.4	0.0
	0.0	Deakin	LIB	1.6	0.0
	0.0	Dunkley	LIB	5.2	0.0
	0.0	Flinders	LIB	7.4	0.0
	0.0	Gellibrand	ALP	20.4	0.0
	0.0	Goldstein	LIB	9.5	0.0
	0.0	Gorton	ALP	20.0	0.0
	0.0	Higgins	LIB	8.4	0.0
	0.0	Holt	ALP	7.9	0.0
	0.0	Hotham	ALP	11.0	0.0
	0.0	Isaacs	ALP	6.6	0.0
	0.0	Jagajaga	ALP	5.3	0.0
	0.0	Kooyong	LIB	10.9	0.0
	0.0	La Trobe	LIB	3.7	0.0
	0.0	Lalor	ALP	12.1	0.0
	0.0	Mallee	NAT	20.9	0.0
	0.0	Maribyrnong	ALP	15.4	0.0
	0.0	McEwen	LIB	2.3	0.0
	0.0	Melbourne	ALP	19.9	0.0
	0.0	Melbourne Ports	ALP	5.7	0.0
	0.0	Menzies	LIB	8.9	0.0
	0.0	Scullin	ALP	20.2	0.0
	0.0	Wills	ALP	20.6	0.0
	0.0	Bonner	ALP	1.9	0.0
	0.0	Bowman	LIB	3.1	0.0
	0.0	Brisbane	ALP	1.0	0.0
	0.0	Capricornia	ALP	5.5	0.0
	0.0	Dawson	NAT	8.0	0.0
	0.0	Dickson	LIB	6.0	0.0
	0.0	Fadden	LIB	13.1	0.0
	0.0	Fairfax	LIB	9.2	0.0
	0.0	Fisher	LIB	11.8	0.0
	0.0	Forde	LIB	7.0	0.0
	0.0	Griffith	ALP	6.2	0.0
	0.0	Herbert	LIB	1.5	0.0
	0.0	Hinkler	NAT	2.2	0.0
	0.0	Kennedy	OTH	19.2	0.0
	0.0	Leichhardt	LIB	6.4	0.0
	0.0	Lilley	ALP	4.6	0.0
	0.0	Longman	LIB	2.5	0.0
	0.0	McPherson	LIB	12.2	0.0
	0.0	Moncrieff	LIB	16.3	0.0
	0.0	Moreton	LIB	2.6	0.0
	0.0	Oxley	ALP	8.0	0.0
	0.0	Petrie	LIB	3.5	0.0
	0.0	Rankin	ALP	2.4	0.0
	0.0	Ryan	LIB	9.6	0.0
	0.0	Wide Bay	NAT	9.9	0.0
	0.0	Brand	ALP	10.0	0.0
	0.0	Canning	LIB	0.4	0.0
	0.0	Cowan	ALP	5.5	0.0
	0.0	Curtin	LIB	13.9	0.0
	0.0	Forrest	LIB	7.6	0.0
	0.0	Fremantle	ALP	10.7	0.0
	0.0	Hasluck	ALP	1.8	0.0
	0.0	Kalgoorlie	LIB	4.3	0.0
	0.0	Moore	LIB	6.0	0.0
	0.0	O'Connor	LIB	19.1	0.0
	0.0	Pearce	LIB	6.9	0.0
	0.0	Perth	ALP	11.2	0.0
	0.0	Stirling	ALP	1.6	0.0
	0.0	Swan	ALP	2.0	0.0
	0.0	Tangney	LIB	8.0	0.0
	0.0	Adelaide	LIB	0.6	0.0
	0.0	Barker	LIB	16.6	0.0
	0.0	Boothby	LIB	7.4	0.0
	0.0	Grey	LIB	10.6	0.0
	0.0	Hindmarsh	LIB	1.0	0.0
	0.0	Kingston	ALP	1.3	0.0
	0.0	Makin	LIB	3.7	0.0
	0.0	Mayo	LIB	14.3	0.0
	0.0	Port Adelaide	ALP	16.0	0.0
	0.0	Sturt	LIB	8.5	0.0
	0.0	Wakefield	ALP	1.3	0.0
	0.0	Canberra	ALP	9.4	0.0
	0.0	Fraser	ALP	12.7	0.0
	0.0	Lingiari	ALP	5.3	0.0
	0.0	Solomon	LIB	0.1	0.0

[naturalman1975]

What you call Precincts, I think are referred to as Booths here - none hold out deliberately, but some inner city ones do tend to take longer to report.

[naturalman1975]

Electoratre of Page, NSW, National Party, currently shows inceased National vote on early counts. Richmond, NSW, National Party held, Labor currently shows gain, but from 'alternative lifestyle' (Hippy) booths. Gilmore, NSW, Liberal, showing some swing to Labor, but currently still safe for Liberal. Calare, NSW, Independent, should stay in his hand. NSW result currently looking fairly mixed - but count is very early.

[piasa]

Skip the vegemite and make Roo-B-Que.