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Bush Up By 5 in Oregon (Bush 48-Kerry 43???)
Real Clear Politics ^

Posted on 10/15/2004 1:43:52 PM PDT by Lunatic Fringe

Edited on 10/15/2004 1:53:42 PM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]

Report in PDF format

Some other items:

Wu 58%, Ameri 36%

Measure 34 (Tillamook Forest lockup): Yes 39%, No 27%

Measure 36 (Preserve Traditional Marriage): Yes 57%, No 36%


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Oregon
KEYWORDS: battleground; kewl; polls; purplestates
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To: man from mars
Bush is even in NJ...

Although I should be long past the point of being shockable, I am shocked that of the four states most severely hit by the 9/11/01 attacks (NY, NJ, PA, VA), only Virginia will go for GWB. Despite everything the president has done for the other three, they will likely still vote against him. Talk about stupid ingrates -- these states make France look positively generous in its appreciation for what we did for them in WWI and WWII.

141 posted on 10/15/2004 3:32:22 PM PDT by Wolfstar (John Kerry may trust the enemies of America, but the American people just can't trust John Kerry.)
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To: used2BDem

It was a great night!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1245973/posts


142 posted on 10/15/2004 3:33:57 PM PDT by OregonRancher (illigitimus non carborundum)
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To: Molly Pitcher
Hey :-) are you referring to my masochistic behavior? I don't listen much these days because they are saying the same things over and over and over :-) But, you gotta listen once in awhile just to see what the enemy is up to.

I listened to a couple of minutes this afternoon on my way home and (Ed Schultz? I think that is his name) actually said sKerry NEVER CHANGED HIS MIND ABOUT THE WAR IN IRAQ! Said the MSM is on the Bush bandwagon and DISTORTS and takes out of context, everything sKerry says! Liberals are delusional!!!!!

143 posted on 10/15/2004 3:38:15 PM PDT by bevlar (There are many intelligent species in the universe. They all own cats)
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To: OregonRancher
Yes, it was! I loved his line about being "happy to be in a place where there were more boots, than suits." (must've been talkin' to you, Oregon Rancher!) I couldn't tell if it felt more like a rock concert or a very rowdy church service!
144 posted on 10/15/2004 3:38:39 PM PDT by used2BDem (Navy Vet/ Navy Mom)
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To: TruthWillWin

"You forgot Ashland."

Full of "1000 Friends of Oregon"; retired, do-gooder
liberal scum with to much time on their hands who meddle in things just to meddle. Environmental idjits who can't tell a tree from a stalk of corn... There are times when I really do wish for a hunting permit, no bag limit, open season and extra points if they're a member of the Sierra Club.


145 posted on 10/15/2004 3:39:06 PM PDT by OregonRancher (illigitimus non carborundum)
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To: OregonRancher; Molly Pitcher

Thats the way it is here, too.

I think the only folks you will find following Kerry are special interest groups.


146 posted on 10/15/2004 3:42:31 PM PDT by RedBloodedAmerican
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To: used2BDem

Hey, did you see the little girl in white with the cowboy hat who was sitting on her dad's shoulders. Dang, that was a pretty picture. and yep, boots to hoot!!!


147 posted on 10/15/2004 3:43:08 PM PDT by OregonRancher (illigitimus non carborundum)
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To: man from mars

How do you get polling information the day before it comes out? If so, more power to ya and please share which polls and percentages. Please don't keep good information to yourself.


148 posted on 10/15/2004 3:46:32 PM PDT by Mase (Some of my friends vote yes, some of my friends vote no and I always vote with my friends-JF'nK)
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To: Admin Moderator; Question Liberal Authority; Salvation; Lunatic Fringe; Clump; Brad's Gramma; ...

A.M. could this be BREAKING or at least FRONT PAGE please, it is HUGE


Not only is the Riley poll one of the most accurate, but it was taken Oct 9-13.

That's BEFORE Bush kicked Kerry's butt in the 3rd debate, and

That's BEFORE Bush made a 2-DAY visit to OREGON

And guess what... EVERYONE starts voting statewide - TODAY or TOMORROW depending on the U.S. mail.


About the same time that Riley last polled Oregon, they found Bush ahead by +1
Shortly after THAT, Mason Dixon, one of the MOST restpected
pollsters found Bush ahead by +4

Most of the other pollsters in oregon re-weighted their data based
on the 2000 election, making it seriously in error.


149 posted on 10/15/2004 3:51:20 PM PDT by Future Useless Eater (FreedomLoving_Engineer)
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To: Lunatic Fringe

I guarantee the Kerry people are gripping hard right now. Their internal polls are probably beginning to show a Bush surge, and at the very least they'll have to spend time and money in a state that should've been secure for them by now. Let's see how things shape up in the next 7 days or so. If the polls continue to show a Bush upswing by then I think Kerry's finished.


150 posted on 10/15/2004 3:52:26 PM PDT by midftfan
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To: drangundsturm

>>If you look at other polls around the same date ranges this is the outlier. If you scroll down the page, Riley Research seems to be skewed toward bush more than any other polling firm during the same timeframes.


Hey NEWBIE, have some faith... Riley was in the middle of
the pack of the ONLY believable polls a couple weeks ago


151 posted on 10/15/2004 3:54:07 PM PDT by Future Useless Eater (FreedomLoving_Engineer)
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To: OregonRancher

Yes, I did. LOTS of kids on daddy's shoulders. Wish I had had one. I'm 5'2". . .couldn't see much at all. But you could sure FEEL a lot though!! (BTW, happy belated anniversary!!)


152 posted on 10/15/2004 3:58:55 PM PDT by used2BDem (Navy Vet/ Navy Mom)
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To: RockinRight
If Bush wins Oregon, he will also win PA, NJ, ME

This isn't right. Oregon is a true toss-up state. Gore won by something like 4,000 votes. Neither candidate is spending much time there because it's not that many EV's and there isn't anything near by that's for sale. But's it's an available state, much more so than NJ or ME. Probably about the same as PA.

153 posted on 10/15/2004 4:05:58 PM PDT by TomEwall
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To: used2BDem

Thank you..... I usually stand in the back....I'm 6'7+" without the boots. My wife uses me for a portable shade tree in leaf......


154 posted on 10/15/2004 4:12:01 PM PDT by OregonRancher (illigitimus non carborundum)
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To: LS; Always Right; BohDaThone; BushisTheMan; Mount Athos; Mr.Atos; RyanM; Voltage; Woogit; ...

yep, this poll is VERY believable and professional.

The MOST respected pollster so far in Oregon has been
Mason-Dixon, and shortly after Riley's LAST poll
(which had Bush up +1) the Mason-Dixon had Bush up +4



155 posted on 10/15/2004 4:15:51 PM PDT by Future Useless Eater (FreedomLoving_Engineer)
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To: Robert_Paulson2
I am Embarrassed that Goli is still behind WU, or trust my instinct to ignore polls. In any event I shot off a contribution. Hope to meet a lot of Oregon FReepers at the State Fair this coming Monday. Look for gray haired dude with a attitude towards Democrats.
156 posted on 10/15/2004 4:16:49 PM PDT by investigateworld ((If Ted Kennedy had been driving a Volkswagen.......he'd still be a POS))
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To: investigateworld

Well, take solace in the fact that that poll had an extremely small sample with a MOE of like 10%. They mentioned that on their website.


157 posted on 10/15/2004 4:19:13 PM PDT by Ravi (Jai Jindal)
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To: Lunatic Fringe

YeeeHaah!


158 posted on 10/15/2004 4:19:46 PM PDT by Don'tMessWithTexas
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To: FL_engineer
That is good news, REAL GOOD! I think skerry's comment about Mary and his ridiculous answer about the strong women in his life just might sink him. I know that sounds stupid to those of us who are very well informed in the issues but hey, remember the looking at his watch thing or the sigh etc.
159 posted on 10/15/2004 4:19:56 PM PDT by Woogit
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To: demlosers; dennisw; dukeman; DrDeb; Former Military Chick; crushelits; Beelzebubba; nypokerface; ...

Great news!

--- ELECTION EVE

--- REPUTABLE POLLSTER

DUBYA +5 !!!


160 posted on 10/15/2004 4:32:33 PM PDT by Future Useless Eater (FreedomLoving_Engineer)
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