[HiJinx]

Did you see the after-action report from Oregon Rancher regarding the President's rally in Medford?

Those numbers appear to actually be low, when you consider the attendance figures for the rally...

[Mo1]

please ...please ...please let this poll be true

Wohoooo

[dawn53]

I checked Real Clear Politics this afternoon, specifically looking at Battleground States.

The picture I got, from looking at the poll dates, is that generally any poll that included results after the third debates shows Bush on the upswing.

Not that he's ahead in the poll, but he's definitely up a point or two if the results include the time frame after the debate.

[Sprite518]

Do you think the Rats are trying to get their guys to campaign hard this final stretch? Plus maybe discourage conservative voters from voting since they think the election will be in the bag?

[B Knotts]

Here is the post I was composing while this was posted (now pulled):

Report in PDF format

Some other items:

Wu 58%, Ameri 36%

Measure 34 (Tillamook Forest lockup): Yes 39%, No 27%

Measure 36 (Preserve Traditional Marriage): Yes 57%, No 36%

[dfdemar]

I doubt this. Looking at the past polls, Riley has been more of an outlier showing Bush ahead while Kerry was way ahead it all the other polls. Would be nice to get Oregon though.

[Robert_Paulson2]

Little reporting on it...
but Bush has been ahead here by a slim margin since the convention... and now it is going beyond the margin of error.

keep kerry off of bridges.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Holy crapola! This Riley poll probably overstates Bush's standing in Oregon, but it is probably closer to the truth than the SUSA poll putting Kerry up 9%. I would guess that Kerry is up by no more than 2% in OR about now.

[Plutarch]

Assuming Florida and Wisconsin are in the bag, Bush has a solid 264 EV's. He needs one of the following to get over the top:

Ohio
Iowa
New Mexico (+ one electoral vote from Maine)
New Hampshire (+ one EV from Maine) to tie.

Other outlier states have occasional polls showing inexplicable Bush competitiveness. Earlier today a New Jersey poll, and now Oregon.

If these are possibilities the likelihood of a Bush victory is that much higher, as there are more ways to win.

[suzyq5558]

Well well well now we know why the President was here yesterday instead of in Ohio or wherever it was someone last night was shreiking that he should be instead of in Oregon:)hehe. I know we can give Oregon to the President this year I just feel it in my bones!!!! GO W!!!

[Ditto]

President George Bush appears to have built a five-point lead over Senator John Kerry, leading 48 to 43 percent, while about 4 percent of voters are undecided and 4 percent would vote for someone else (Ralph Nader received just one percent of the vote). This is an increase for Bush from our September poll, which had the candidates virtually even (46% Bush vs. 45% Kerry).

While Bush captures 87 percent of Republicans, Kerry gets just 80 percent of Democrats, and splits the votes of the independent and minority party candidates.

Bush captures 54 percent of men (vs. 43% of women), while Kerry gets a higher percent of women (48%), but only 37 percent of the men.

While the youngest voters strongly favor Kerry (54%), seniors are somewhat divided: those recently retired (65-74) strongly favor Bush (54% vs. 39%), while those over 75 are mixed (45% Bush, 43% Kerry).

[pabianice]

Cummon! Next, MA will break for Bush...

[LS]

It looks like a professional local Oregon polling firm that works for Channel 8.

[crazyhorse691]

Oregon does vote by mail(our ballots just arrived) and the numbers are pretty close to the national average. We have a double majority rule for some money matters and they are hard pressed to hit the 50% participation(one time, our county purged the voting rolls after the vote an just barely hit the 50%). The turnout this year will be closer to 60% this year due to the gay marriage thingee. Portland thinks they rule Oregon, but, with that high of a turnout and the bitterness towards elected local government for forcing the gay issue, Bush will win the state and Ameri will come close in the heavily democratic district. Patty Meyers(Osama built daycare centers) is a shoo in. Nethercutt is not the right candidate. But thats Washington State.

[Ken H]

If the GOP can take Oregon, it will sail 'em to victory.

[riri]

Oh, this is good.

I have the misfortune of having to deal with two lunatics from Oregon. One is an admitted socialist and the other is a enviro-nutjob. Nothing, nothing could please me more than Oregon going to the President.

[AmarilloMorning]

God, I hope this is true. Please Jesus, this needs to happen.

[midftfan]

I guarantee the Kerry people are gripping hard right now. Their internal polls are probably beginning to show a Bush surge, and at the very least they'll have to spend time and money in a state that should've been secure for them by now. Let's see how things shape up in the next 7 days or so. If the polls continue to show a Bush upswing by then I think Kerry's finished.

[Don'tMessWithTexas]

YeeeHaah!

[Future Useless Eater]

Great news!

--- ELECTION EVE

--- REPUTABLE POLLSTER

DUBYA +5 !!!