Wash. Post/ABC Tracking Poll (10/18) Bush 50 Kerry 47

Washington Post ^ | 10/18/04 | Washington Post

[crushkerry]

Bush 50 Kerry 47

[crushkerry]

It was Bush 50 Kerry 46 yesterday. Keep in mind this poll includes 2 weekend days out of the 3 days tracked, so this is, I think, good news that Sunday's results weren't that bad.

[Pikamax]

looks like the nader vote left for Kerry again.

[finnman69]

Will be interesting to see what happens with Ras and Zogby tomorrow.

[finnman69]

from some reason WAPO pulled the internals form the site

[Petronski]

[don'tbedenied]

Excellent, now if we can get a few Battleground polls showing some positive news (they lag the national polls ya know) we might get to hear the lamentation of their women, or at least we'll see Katie Couric with her pouty face on tomorrow.

[LS]

Bush hovering at 50%. That's the old magic number.

[finnman69]

I think in the next week Bush will at some point be above that 50% number in the WAPO poll.

[Gustafm1000]

Intersting. If you look at the chart for this poll on washingtonpost.com, Bush is always good on Monday but then goes down for two days a couple points because the weekend polls are in full effect and then by Thursday of each week he is at the top of his range... It's like clockwork... Expect this thing to be tied or w/in one point the next couple days but by Thursday, Friday and Saturday for Bush to be back up by 4-5 points... As long as the range is tied to a 4-5 point lead then we are in good shape and the variances can be explained by weekend polling.

[gswilder]

Tracking polls seem about split today. But at worst, Bush/Kerry are tied. In most polls, Bush is up. So, my money is on that Bush is ahead. Best Kerry has been able to do over the last 6-8 weeks, is get a tie. AGAIN, for 6-8 weeks, best Kerry can do is tie. Now what does that tell any common sense person? It again looks to be down to FL and OH for Bush. I am pretty confident FL is about locked up. Need to see a few more state polls from OH. I think Bush wins both in the end; probably by an easy margin.

[comebacknewt]

Looks like all the tracking polls showed F'n with a very good day yesterday. Hopefully, it was just a bad Sunday sample that will disappear tomorrow.

We will know soon enough because one of W's strong days rolls off tomorrow. If he maintains his lead, it was just noise. If F'n has another strong day, it will be tied again.

[unspun]

Has anyone looked into why it is that the Washington Post, Gallup, and Battleground polls tend to swing farther --and usually show Bush more ahead?

Any replies 'solicited.'

[traderrob6]

Noticed that too....Sunday was a bad day for W....guess most of his constituency were at church and missed the call

[KJacob]

You really that confident about Florida?

[sitetest]

A point here and there is noise.

[Petronski]

In the Rasmussen 7 day rolling averages for 5 key battleground states the results for today are:

Florida, Bush 47%-46% (This is a 1 point Kerry gain from yesterday)

Michigan, Kerry 49%-45% (This is a 2 point Kerry gain from yesterday)

Minnesota, Tie 47% (This is a 2 point Bush gain from yesterday)

Ohio, Bush 49%-47% (This is a 1 point Bush gain from yesterday)

Pennsylvania, Kerry 49%-45% (This is a 2 point Kerry gain from yesterday)

[KJacob]

I am starting to really worry about Florida.

[Petronski]

The graph can only be posted with a screen cap, as in #5 of this thread.

[aft_lizard]

I see, for some reason I thought that the page itself would show up if I just copied the source code, guess I was wrong.

[MichelleWSC]

"A point here and there is noise."


---I agree, a point or 2 back and forth is most likely static. It's those swings of 4 and 5 points that get me LOL I think the MSM has learned the most people aren't gonna be so swayed by these little tilts back and forth so they are going to play up the state by state polls just to f**k with our nerves LOL