Skip to comments.Zogby Flashback: Bush Leads in Reuters Poll, But Gore Rises in Key States (Gore leads FL by 10%)
Posted on 10/18/2004 7:30:54 PM PDT by ambrose
Monday October 30 6:47 PM ET
Bush Leads in Reuters Poll, But Gore Rises in Key States
By Alan Elsner, Political Correspondent
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Republican George W. Bush (news - web sites) kept his three-point lead over Democrat Al Gore (news - web sites) in Monday's Reuters/MSNBC national daily tracking poll, but separate surveys of nine key battleground states showed Gore making inroads.
The state polls showed Gore widening his lead in Florida, overtaking Bush in Pennsylvania and closing the gap in his home state of Tennessee.
The national survey of 1,213 likely voters in the Nov. 7 election, conducted Friday to Monday by pollster John Zogby, found the Texas governor with 45 percent and the vice president with 42 percent, unchanged from Sunday's results. Eight days remain until the Nov. 7 election.
Green Party nominee Ralph Nader (news - web sites) polled 5 percent; Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan (news - web sites) stayed at 1 percent; Libertarian Harry Browne (news - web sites) had 1 percent, and the rest remained undecided.
The race remained well within the statistical margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. A candidate would have to be more than six points in the lead to be outside that zone of uncertainty -- something neither man has achieved since the poll began on Sept. 29.
In the equally tight race for the House of Representatives, voters preferred the Republicans by one point. The Democrats need a net gain of seven seats to regain control from the Republicans after six years in the minority.
In a race this close, national polls cannot predict a winner because the election is likely to be decided in key swing states. Reuters and MSNBC are conducting daily tracking polls in nine such battleground states, polling around 600 likely voters in each over three days. These state samples each have a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.
The results showed Gore had expanded his lead in the key state of Florida to 11 percentage points, outside the margin of error. Many analysts believe that is a must-win state for Bush.
Gore also had an eight-point lead in Wisconsin and a six-point lead in Illinois. He was ahead by a single point in Washington state and Michigan and took a three-point lead in Pennsylvania, reversing a Bush lead of three points the previous day.
Bush's lead in Gore's home state of Tennessee narrowed to four points from seven. He led by five points in Ohio, and by a single point in Missouri.
In total, 153 votes in the Electoral College are up for grabs in those nine states. At the moment, Gore would win 110 and Bush would take 43 of those votes.
These are the complete state-by-state results for Monday:
Bush Gore Nader Electoral Votes Florida 40 51 4 25 Illinois 41 47 4 22 Michigan 44 45 4 18 Missouri 46 45 4 11 Ohio 48 43 3 21 Pennsylvania 43 46 3 23 Tennessee 49 45 2 11 Washington 44 45 6 11 Wisconsin 41 49 4 11
A total of 270 electoral votes are needed to be elected president. Most analysts believe both candidates have definitely secured about 200, leaving some 138 to be fought over.
The state polls also measured five tough Senate races. It found Republican Rick Lazio (news - web sites) leading first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton (news - web sites) in New York, 48-43 percent.
In Missouri, the late Gov. Mel Carnahan (news - web sites), who died in a plane crash on Oct. 16 but whose name still appears on the ballot, is ahead of Republican incumbent Sen. John Ashcroft, 49-43 percent. His widow said on Monday she would serve in his place if he were elected.
In Florida, Democrat Bill Nelson was 11 points ahead of Republican Bill McCollum and seemed poised to capture a Republican-held seat.
In Michigan, Republican incumbent Spence Abraham trailed Democratic challenger Debbie Stabenow by two points.
In Washington, Republican incumbent Slade Gorton held a four-point lead over Democrat Maria Cantwell.
In the national poll, 83 percent said they were unlikely to change their minds before Election Day. Forty-one percent have ruled out voting for Bush and 43 percent for Gore.
Men backed Bush, 50-37 percent; women preferred Gore by 47-41 percent as the electorate continued to show a substantial gender gap.
Reuters and MSNBC will release a new poll every day at 6:30 p.m. (2330 GMT) until the election.
Oh crap....I read Gore and thought Kerry....sheesh...don't scare me like that
For a more recent example of the pathetic polling, look at Zogby's 2002 Colorado (senate) and Florida (gov) races.
Ridiculous. Gore has NO chance in Florida.
polls are like opinions, everyone has one.
Wow! Gore was ahead by 11 points in Florida at this time in 2000, yet Bush still won the state.
Very interesting. Compared to the 2000 election, Bush is in a much better situation including the country's driving issue of the campaign: terroism. Bush didn't have that kind of issue back then. A great post that provides a little perspective for those in need of some Republican courage.
I love it when you pull up these old stories.
Actually, Zogby's last poll for the 2002 Florida race was dead on.
This is excellent. Thank you for reminding everyone that these polls do nothing but increase the chances for a heart attack. If anyone really wants to know how Bush is doing just look at his crowd sizes compared to the half sized Kerry's. Look at where they're campaigning, Bush in Democrat country and Kerry can't even energize the Democrat country.
Im waiting for Kerry to take a lead in Rasmussen and watch the panic from the chicken littles/trolls
Looks like Zogby is factoring in the double voting, dead voters, illegal-alien voters, and convicted felon voters. With those, he is probably pretty close. Without them, it is nearer the other polls.
Yea a 12 point swing in from the previous poll i believe.Real spot on
True, but Bush also didn't have the huge negatives he has this time. It wouldn't take much to drive Bush's negatives up enough to cause him to lose the election. That's what the RATs and the MSM are trying to do. It's their best shot at the WH in 2004.
That's what Zogby wants to happen.
HEY ZOGBY...I have a flashback for ya!
ping for good stuff
As usual, most of Zogby's polls were accurate, but a couple were totally off the wall.
Yeah, he tried to cover his ass at the very end. Lets look at Oct 2002:
I disagree. When the story suddenly came out about Bush's ancient DUI, that caused a serious withdrawal from 4 million evangelicals. This time that will not happen because we've had four years of Bush, we know him.
See here as well:
That was a real laugher. If Gore had won his own state, he could've won the election.
I guess he wasted too much time in Floridah, and it looks like Kerry is going to do the same.
Flashbacks? I'll tell you about flashbacks (Go SOX!!!)
I always like to point that out to liberals. "If Gore had won his home state or Clinton had delivered Arkansas to Gore, the entire issue in Florida would have been moot."
Of course all they can come back with is "Yeah, but Bush (and his brother/Republicans) still stole the election/selected by the Supreme Court, etc."
Didn't they say that McBride had a lead over Jeb right up to election day and then Jeb won by over 15%?
Something like that. The Libs were using Jeb as a test run to pay G.W. back for 2000. I don't remember the exact nature of the polls, but I do recall the top leadership of the Dem Party and MSM stating it was close. They were all left with egg on their face and carville with a bag over his head when Jeb won far beyond the ability to take the state with voter fraud.
Also, I think there will be far more than 4 million plus the sum that voted in 2000 this time. That was the number they anticipated in 2000. It's nowhere near the capacity of the evangelical/Christian vote when mobilized.
Kerry has very high negatives himself, very difficult for a challenger.