Posted on 10/22/2004 11:16:47 PM PDT by familyop
(CPOD) Oct. 23, 2004 – George W. Bush is leading the United States presidential race, according to a poll by SRBI Public Affairs for Time. 51 per cent of respondents would vote for Republican incumbent George W. Bush in the 2004 election, while 46 per cent would support Democratic nominee John Kerry.
Two per cent of respondents would vote for independent candidate Ralph Nader, and one per cent is undecided. The election is scheduled for Nov. 2.
Support for Bush increased by three per cent in a week, while backing for Kerry dropped by one per cent. In early October, the Republican held a one per cent lead over the Democrat.
Polling Data
Now suppose the 2004 election for President were being held today, and you had to choose between George W. Bush, the Republican; John Kerry, the Democrat; or Ralph Nader, running as an independent. For whom would you vote, Bush, Kerry, or Nader?
(Including leaners, excluding refusals)
|
Oct. 19-21 |
Oct. 14-15 |
Oct. 6-7 |
|
|
George W. Bush (R) |
51% |
48% |
48% |
|
John Kerry (D) |
46% |
47% |
47% |
|
Ralph Nader (I) |
2% |
3% |
4% |
|
Other candidate |
-- |
-- |
1% |
|
Don’t know |
1% |
2% |
1% |
Source: Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs / Time
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 771 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 19 to Oct. 21, 2004. Margin of error is 4 per cent.
Other
poll highlights: Bush approval at 53 per cent. Economy and war on terror are the most important issues for voters Bush seen as better candidate to deal with moral values issues, the situation in Iraq, the war on terrorism, providing leadership, taxes and being commander in chief. Kerry regarded as better for health care and understanding the needs of the average American. Both candidates almost even on economy.
And for those of you who like to see electoral analysis maps.
http://presidentelect.org/e2004.html
What is this, three different polls where Bush is above 50% and Kerry can't break through 46%?
We are looking at a 52-46 election.....
How, in the name of God, do most people think that the laziest Senator, a giggolo twice over and currently married to a billionaire understands "average" Americans better than Bush???
Bingo! Kerry seems to hit a ceiling at around 46% of the vote. Bush's floor seems to be in the 47-48% range (still better than Kerry's ceiling), but lately he is consistently hitting 50% and better. In the Washington Post tracking poll, he has been at 50% or better for about a week. I am predicting that the final result will be something like 52-53% for President Bush and only 45-46% for Kerry -- pretty close to the current Gallup numbers and to this latest Time poll.
Good, let President Bush's number keep rising. I am working like it is a close one but I am praying for a Huge Bush/Cheney Victory.
I agree. I alway's thought Kerry can't get over 46% even with voter fraud.
How, in the name of God, do most people think that the laziest Senator, a giggolo twice over and currently married to a billionaire understands "average" Americans better than Bush???
I don't know. But he is way, way too high in some of these state polls. We are a dumbed down nation. Shallow thinkers abound. One of them makes a complete sentence such as "It would be better to elect anybody but Bush." and the rest think he or she is a high priest or prophet.
What shall we do?
Soldier on.
The aspect of fraud is what bothers me too. Only a huge GOP victory will lessen the chances of it, but I still worry that the dems will litigate and cheapen yet another institution (even more than they already have).
§ Likely voters reported party identifications are: 35% Democrat, 35% Republican, 23%
Independents.
§ Registered voters party affiliations are: 35% Democrat, 33% Republican, 23% Independent.
I'd say this is a pretty accurate poll
It's getting harder and harder for the media to spin this as a close race.
I'm starting to get the warm-and-fuzzies about all of this; though I won't relax until I see Dan Rather looking like someone just ran over his dog as he reads that final CBS News projection on Election Night.
I also saw that, but I don't get it... 35%+35%+23%=93%... there can't be that many Greens and Libertarians. Maybe the other 7% are refusals?
In 2000, VNU reported 39% Dem, 35% Rep, and 27% Independent. Probably reasonable to assume a 4% shift from Dem to Independent after 9/11.
I agree...that should put Bush between 330 and 350 EVs...
If it ain't close...they can't cheat...
I hope you're right. If so then that should be enough to overcome all the dead, non-citizen, and multiple voters the Democrats will enjoy. At least so says John Fund of the WSJournal who just released a book on vote fraud.
It would also be more than enough to carry the electoral college safely into Bush's category.
The red is not New Hanpshire, but proportional votes from Maine.
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*Maine's 2nd Congressional District is currently list as a "toss up," which subtracts 1 electoral vote from Kerry's overall total.
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