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Tomorrow's Zogby poll to show Kerry up by 1
National Review ^ | 10/29

Posted on 10/29/2004 10:58:12 PM PDT by ambrose

I HEAR [KJL]

Zogby's latest will have Kerry up one nationwide, but Bush not doing bad in most battlegrounds, save for Florida (Florida where Bush internals are giving Bushies confidence).


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: polls; zogby
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To: ambrose
Final Zogby poll numbers VS Results of Election Night (A FR Archive thread) - a blast from the past (2002 congressional elections)
51 posted on 10/29/2004 11:20:32 PM PDT by flashbunny (Every thought that enters my head requires its own vanity thread.)
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To: flashbunny

Seriously............this is all really getting to me.. One poll up, one poll down, up, down, too close to call...pundits calling it for Kerry...............I keep telling myself that God is in control and whatever happens is what He wants.........but my nerves are shaky


52 posted on 10/29/2004 11:21:33 PM PDT by cccellar
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To: Nascardude

That's where the "special sauce" part comes in. He has even said interviews that he "eyeballs" the numbers and will adjust them to reflect where he thinks the race is going.


53 posted on 10/29/2004 11:22:14 PM PDT by ambrose (A vote for Kerry is a vote for bin Laden)
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To: Torie

Is that Oneida Cty. NY? Heard they just raised their sales tax to 9.75%- Boy, that outta be good for business---not!


54 posted on 10/29/2004 11:22:20 PM PDT by midnightson
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To: MJY1288

Yes,I concur.


55 posted on 10/29/2004 11:22:34 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: ambrose
"Unlike a Gallup, Zogby refuses to reveal his methodology, or even leave his call sheets up for audits. He literally can make up whatever numbers he feels like"

Not true.

In 2000 he said he added 3% to Gore because the Dems had a better get out the vote effort and his poll on Monday the day before the election showed strong voter turnout for Gore.

Anotherwords he guessed correct !

56 posted on 10/29/2004 11:23:47 PM PDT by america-rules (It's US or THEM so what part don't you understand ?)
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To: Merry

Is it just me, or have Zogby's numbers really gone crazy since he had those runins with Novak (saying Bush wins) and later in the same day Jon Stewart (saying Kerry wins)?


57 posted on 10/29/2004 11:26:20 PM PDT by eddiebear
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To: america-rules

The funny thing, if this is true....

if he had not added 3 points to Gore, his final number would have been MORE ACCURATE...


58 posted on 10/29/2004 11:26:24 PM PDT by ambrose (A vote for Kerry is a vote for bin Laden)
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To: midnightson

Yep. Zogby has his boilerplate operation in some industrial building in Utica, where little old ladies make calls working at the minimum wage, or close to it.


59 posted on 10/29/2004 11:27:34 PM PDT by Torie
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To: goldstategop
Forget Zogby. Wait for the final TIME and Gallup polls. They should be dead on within a few percentage points of predicting the winner's final results on Election Day.

Exactly. I would also forget TIPP, Rasmussen, Newsweak -- just about all of them except for Gallup, Time, and the two polls that came out today: Opinion Dynamics and Battleground.

60 posted on 10/29/2004 11:28:14 PM PDT by kesg
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To: eddiebear

Zogby's state polls confirms he's crazy. Bush leading in Michigan while down in Colorado? That's insanity. Why does Sean Hannity have Zogby on his radio show so much? He seems to really get a long with him too.


61 posted on 10/29/2004 11:28:55 PM PDT by Nascardude
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To: Nascardude

He said Kerry had a plus 5 on tuesday but Bush was still up 2 on thursday so if he pulled a 5 and Bush was still up 2 what did Bush pull? Now Zogby has Bush down one on Saturday? Sorry doesnt pass the smell test

The thing is this tape gives him an out..He can say oooooh Kerry would have won without the tape


62 posted on 10/29/2004 11:29:33 PM PDT by skaterboy (Boobookitty)
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To: ambrose

I think today Zogby went out on a limb and predicted a Kerry victory. He can't back away from that claim now. After all he was the one who said in late spring that this election was Kerry's to lose. Kerry will lose and I hope Zogby's reputation takes a severe hit as a result. His state polling is all over the road map, and it's hard to take his stats seriously anymore. Don't take his or any other pollsters results as gospel.


63 posted on 10/29/2004 11:32:12 PM PDT by midftfan
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To: ambrose
"if he had not added 3 points to Gore, his final number would have been MORE ACCURATE"

No he had Bush up bt 2 and then on election day morning he had Gore up by 1.

64 posted on 10/29/2004 11:32:53 PM PDT by america-rules (It's US or THEM so what part don't you understand ?)
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To: ambrose

How bout' a little truth in advertising from Zogby? Something like say, "Zogby's wishful thinking poll really really, Really wants Kerry to win this thing!"


65 posted on 10/29/2004 11:34:23 PM PDT by TeddyCon
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To: america-rules

No, he had Gore up by 2 in his final poll:

http://www.ncpp.org/1936-2000.htm


66 posted on 10/29/2004 11:36:05 PM PDT by ambrose (A vote for Kerry is a vote for bin Laden)
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To: ambrose
Remember how bad the polls were in 2002? I was so worried about Wayne Allard and no one really predicted Cleland or Barnes would lose. Also, the Elizabeth Dole race was polling way closer then it really was. Same with New Hampshire.

Anyone have Zogby's numbers from two years ago?

67 posted on 10/29/2004 11:37:03 PM PDT by SoCar (John Kerry's campaign is a distraction from the fight against al-Qaida)
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To: ambrose
The guy is an assclown.

LOL!

I'm normally not one for making over-the-top wildly optimistic predictions, but ...

A Kerry victory isn't going to happen.

I was concerned until the start of this week. But with Kerry's inept closing focus on Bush's strength issues of Iraq and terror, lack of articulating a positive motivation for why he should be elected, and Osama's Whack-a-Mole video homage to Michael Moore and threat to America, all doubt is gone. Bush will win this by a larger margin than the current conventional wisdom predicts. Election night will be short-lived and void of genuine suspense when it comes to the presidential race. Bush supporters will be off to bed early.

I'll change my FR name to "IM_A_HAIRY_FAIRY_FOR_JOHNKERRY" if Kerry wins this race.

68 posted on 10/29/2004 11:37:30 PM PDT by AHerald ("Be what you is, cuz if you be what you ain't, then you ain't what you is.")
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To: Torie

Perhaps the old Matt's Brewery.


69 posted on 10/29/2004 11:38:41 PM PDT by midnightson
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To: AHerald

Marking for future...;)


70 posted on 10/29/2004 11:38:44 PM PDT by MEG33 (John Kerry has been AWOL on issues of national security for two decades)
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To: ambrose

I think most, if not all, of Zogby's notoriety comes from the fact that he has the catchy name: "Zogby!"

Otherwise he's total cr*p.


71 posted on 10/29/2004 11:39:21 PM PDT by LeftCoastNeoCon
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To: Kornev

Hold your tongue! (or your fingers?!) I will never get used to him...and he will not win.


72 posted on 10/29/2004 11:40:34 PM PDT by I'm ALL Right! (Terrorists hate Bush - Any Questions?)
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To: MEG33
Marking for future...;)

My fiance has already made me print a copy of this thread for her "safekeeping."

73 posted on 10/29/2004 11:41:01 PM PDT by AHerald ("Be what you is, cuz if you be what you ain't, then you ain't what you is.")
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To: ambrose

LOL

Zogby=IslamoCommunist RAT Politboro Member


74 posted on 10/29/2004 11:41:42 PM PDT by ApesForEvolution (You will NEVER convince me that Muhammadanism isn't a veil for MASS MURDERS. Save your time...)
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To: snarkytart

This is an obvious attempt at election manipulation.

All the pundits on cable tv spent tonight talking about how the OBL tape would remind voters of terrorism, and benefit Bush.

Now Zogby is manipulating the results, to shift the spin cycle so that the MSM picks up the idea that the tape hurt Bush.


75 posted on 10/29/2004 11:44:30 PM PDT by nj26
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To: LeftCoastNeoCon

Yup, it's the catchy name along with the novelty of the Zogby's being two brothers of arabic persuasion. Whoopdeedoo.


76 posted on 10/29/2004 11:45:09 PM PDT by TeddyCon
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To: nj26

Yes to Zogby's manipulating the results! And have you also noticed how the eyes of MSM folks get glazed over with excitement at even a hint of bad news for Dubya?

They look like binging meth junkies looking to score some crys. It's pathetic!


77 posted on 10/29/2004 11:51:58 PM PDT by TeddyCon
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To: Nascardude; ambrose; Perdogg; Cableguy; RWR8189; Dales; skaterboy; LS; Illinois Rep; flashbunny

"Zogby said that Tuesday was a really good day for Kerry in which he polled at +5. That day should be rolling off in tommorow's sample. That means Kerry would have to poll like +6 or +7 in today's sample. It was kind of like last weekend when Zogby came out and admitted that Bush had two day samples where he lead 50-43 and 49-46, yet Bush only had like a 2 or 3 point lead in the poll. Zogby's math just doesn't add up."

Let's go inside the numbers, shall we?

These were the Oct. 23 and Oct. 24 numbers. On the morning of October 26, Zogby reported the race as Bush 49, Kerry 46. To get this average, the October 25 result had to be Bush 48 ((50+49+48)/3=49), Kerry 49 ((43+46+49/3=46).

On the evening of October 26, Zogby reported that Kerry won the night by five points. On the morning of October 27, he reported the race as Bush 48, Kerry 47. Taking these two facts together, the Tuesday result had to be Bush 47, Kerry 52 -- if Zogby is telling the truth. The reason is because the Saturday sample dropped off, and 47 is the number that, when added to Sunday's 49 and Monday's 48, results in the three day average of 48 reported on Wednesday morning.

But the problem is that Kerry couldn't have gotten 52 on Tuesday night. To be at 47 on Wednesday morning, Kerry had to score 46 -- not 52 ((46+49+46)/3)=47). Something is already fishy here, but let's assume he scored 46 and continue.

On the morning of October 28, Zogby reported the race as Bush 48, Kerry 46. Doing the math, Bush scored 49 on Wednesday ((48+47+49)/3). Kerry scored 43 ((49+46+43/3=46).

On the morning of October 29, Zogby reported a 47-47 tie. This is where it gets even more screwy. To poll only 47, Bush polled only 45 on October 28 ((47+49+45)/3=47). Kerry polled a whopping 51 (after polling only 43 the night before) ((46+43+51)/3=47).

So, here is what his daily numbers look like for last six days -- if he is accurating reporting the numbers for last weekend:

Bush 50 49 48 47 49 45
Kerry 43 46 49 46 43 51

If anyone thinks that these numbers accurately reflect what has actually been happening in the race the last six days, you deserve to get stressed out by Zogby polls (or, for that matter, other tracking polls). If this isn't enough to convince you, look at Zogby's state by state tracking, which is even whackier and subject to even wilder swings. These polls are little more than statistical noise -- not real polls like Gallup, Opinion Dynamics, or Battleground.









78 posted on 10/30/2004 12:22:16 AM PDT by kesg
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To: kesg

Right on

Kerry was + 5 on tuesday but yet Bush was still up 2 on thursday..makes no sense...ten point swing in MI? Kerry up in CO?..Pllllllllllllllllllllease


79 posted on 10/30/2004 12:25:15 AM PDT by skaterboy (BUSH 306 KERRY 232)
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To: skaterboy

Here is a link you might enjoy, adding to the point about just how whacky Zogby's polls are:

http://davidwissing.com/index.php


80 posted on 10/30/2004 12:28:40 AM PDT by kesg
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To: ambrose
That's where the "special sauce" part comes in. He has even said interviews that he "eyeballs" the numbers and will adjust them to reflect where he thinks the race is going.

Then whatever he calls what he thinks he is doing, it isn't polling.

81 posted on 10/30/2004 12:30:28 AM PDT by kesg
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To: ambrose

The sad thing is this tape allows him to save himself..He can say OH,I WAS RIGHT BUT OSAMA CHANGED THINGS AT LAST MINUTE


82 posted on 10/30/2004 12:31:51 AM PDT by skaterboy (BUSH 306 KERRY 232)
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To: kesg

I think you are reading too much into what Zogby says. He could have been talking about independents, or difference between R and D, etc. I don't think you could do assume a simple set of numbers to get 49%. For example, you average 48, 49, 50. You can have a wildly different set of numbers like 60, 45, 45 to get 49%. So if 60 rolls off, then the tracking numbers change by a big amount.

But I agree with you that Zogby is full of shit. I think we should all throw out Zogby's #'s, and concentrate on reall polls like Gallup and Battleground #'s.


83 posted on 10/30/2004 12:32:43 AM PDT by Cableguy (Bush wins 53/47)
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To: Cableguy
But I agree with you that Zogby is full of shit. I think we should all throw out Zogby's #'s, and concentrate on reall polls like Gallup and Battleground #'s.

I second this motion. :) It is fun -- sort of (maybe I just need to get a life) -- to monitor these daily polls, but the truth is that when Gallup is away, the mice will play.

84 posted on 10/30/2004 12:37:04 AM PDT by kesg
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To: hobson

Sounds like a personality test.


85 posted on 10/30/2004 1:38:52 AM PDT by Novel
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To: bushisdamanin04
I'm starting to look at Zogby the same way I look at toilet paper.

I'm starting to look at Zogby the same way I look at USED toilet paper...covered with poop at swirling off down the sewer!

86 posted on 10/30/2004 3:16:06 AM PDT by Lurking2Long
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To: Lurking2Long

"and", not "at"


87 posted on 10/30/2004 3:16:45 AM PDT by Lurking2Long
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To: Names Ash Housewares
Zogster had Gore winning pre DUI announcement.

As I recall, most of the sentiment on FR at the time was that Zogby was in the know on Dems' planned voter fraud.

88 posted on 10/30/2004 3:20:07 AM PDT by maryz
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To: ambrose

See http://freerepublic.com/focus/news/1262463/posts?page=1


89 posted on 10/30/2004 3:28:52 AM PDT by narses (If you want ON or OFF my Catholic Ping List email me. + http://www.alamo-girl.com/)
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To: kesg

I hope that with this election, Zogby has to close up shop and sell Persian rugs. The only poll I take seriously is Gallup, and you'll notice that they are very quiet the past few days. I think they will be pretty conservative in their final tally, no matter how they call it.


90 posted on 10/30/2004 3:34:07 AM PDT by kittymyrib
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