Posted on 11/01/2004 8:56:58 AM PST by Bell407Pilot
Centuries?
Yes, centuries. Supreme Court decisions are very hard to change. Whatever a Kerry loaded Court decides we're stuck with. Cf. stare decisis.
The male v. female vote has literally been all over in this campaign. Seems like half the polls show Bush leading with men, the other half show him trailing. That is downright bizarre. I am beginning to think none of these polls can be trusted.
Until this morning, I have never bought into the idea that weekend polling actually is bad for Republicans -- I understand the reasoning, but regarded it as mostly anecdotal and not entirely accurate (Democrats also run errands, do things with their families, and watch football on weekends), but I have seen two things this morning that have changed my mind.
The first is this Fox Poll, which is much better for Kerry than their poll from last Thursday showing Bush leading by five points. A seven point swing in four days -- especially when most polls (including other tracking polls over the same period, along with the national polls such as Pew, CBS, Gallup, etc.) show Bush with a small but consistent 2-3 point lead -- tells me mostly that the FNC poll is reporting statistical noise or, at least equally likely, is not a representative sample.
The second and more important consideraton was a statement from Ed Geoas, one of the two Battlground pollsters and a professional political pollster.
So, now put me on the list of people who are suspicious of weekend polls. :)
WOAH, watch the language please! Some get offended by names like that.
I, too, haven't bought into the idea, but while I'm now a bit more suspicious, I'll rather wait until tomorrow before hopping on the bandwagon. If President wins by a comfortable margin (PV 3%+), I'll have to concede.
Right now if you add up all of the weekend polls together into one huge sample, Bush leads by slightly more than two points nationally, with a margin of error of only 0.9% -- meaning that there is a virtual 100% probability that he actually has a lead, and at least a 95% chance that this lead is somewhere between 1 and 3 points. That's not too bad. And if you do similar calculations on the state level (not counting today's polls, which are very good for Bush in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio), the probability is over 90 percent that Bush leads in Florida, Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Mexico. There is a roughly 75% chance that he will win one of either Ohio or Pennsylvania, and about a 20% chance that he will win both of them.
All of these numbers point to a very close race, but all ties seem to be going to President Bush. In other words, right now we are seeing Kerry's best case scenario, and it still isn't good enough for him to win.
The Demon Rats are lurking this thread and laughing about it.
Something to think about if you're about to post a "oh no! we're dooooomed" commment.
Don't give those cheaters the satisfaction.
Win or lose, we *are* the better, more moral, honest and ethical people.
In light of that, we cannot ever truly lose -anything- to the likes of them.
Something's not right here. On Thursday Fox released a poll showing Bush with a commanding 5-pt lead. Then the UBL tape came out and they released a holf-cocked poll on Friday showing Bush leading 47-45, by 2-pts. Now today we have a poll showing Bush trailing by 2-pts, 46-48. Why am I not buying this?
Because EVERY poll taken, including Fox's show that Bush has a commanding lead in nat'l security/War on Terror/Iraq. And suddenly UBL appears (with a pretty pathetic message) and Kerry goes from 5 under to 2 over in less than 5 days?? Hello! Has Fox drank the kool-aid.
It is a weekend poll. Bush is winning and everyone keep optimistic. Even Rasmussen has Bush ahead +1.4 and that from weekend polling!!
Fox/OpDyn choked. Yeah the FL poll's real believable too. [/sarcasm off]
NOT WITHOUT MY DAUGHTER!!!!
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