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Rove: GOP Leads in FL Absentee + Early Voting
FoxNews ^ | 11/01/04 | Rove via FoxNews

Posted on 11/01/2004 6:38:59 PM PST by NittanyLion

Per Karl Rove on Hannity & Colmes interview, in Florida Republicans lead in absentee ballots while Democrats lead in early voting. Taken together, the GOP holds a lead.

I know there's been much back-and-forth over this issue, and it's hard to know whether this is disinformation or legitimate data.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: absenteeballots; absenteevote; earlyvote; florida; gwb2004; kewl; polls; rove
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1 posted on 11/01/2004 6:39:01 PM PST by NittanyLion
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To: NittanyLion


Bush will win Florida by l02,000 votes. You heard it here first.


2 posted on 11/01/2004 6:41:00 PM PST by Murp
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To: NittanyLion

Sometime before January 20, I'm sure we'll know for certain.


3 posted on 11/01/2004 6:41:08 PM PST by Dog Gone
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To: NittanyLion

If you don't have a link, then leave that box blank. It makes no sense to link back to FreeRepublic.


4 posted on 11/01/2004 6:41:29 PM PST by BCrago66
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To: NittanyLion

I don't believe anything Rove says anymore.


5 posted on 11/01/2004 6:41:49 PM PST by Holden Magroin
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To: NittanyLion

I know that Rove will use disinformation at times but I gotta think that he wouldn't make a statement like that unless he meant it.

As I see it, holding Florida (as well as Ohio) is the key for Bush's re-election.

I'm sitting here taking a break at the local B-C'04 office here in Mpls and I have to admit...I'm getting nervous!


6 posted on 11/01/2004 6:41:51 PM PST by MplsSteve
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To: NittanyLion

GOP voters in FLA will be out in force tomorrow.


7 posted on 11/01/2004 6:42:05 PM PST by stainlessbanner
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To: NittanyLion

Common sense tells me that Democrats are going to do well in early voting in Florida because most early voters are seniors/retirees and in Florida they tend to be more Democratic than the national average (mostly transplanted Northeastern liberals). They would have voted anyway because people in this demographic are more likely to vote than just about anyone else. But I would add that just about everything we have heard on early voting from the campaigns is almost certainly disinformation.


8 posted on 11/01/2004 6:42:07 PM PST by kesg
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To: NittanyLion

I don't see how anyone can know who leads in any actual voting right now. I thought all the votes were counted at the same time - after the polls close on Nov 2.


9 posted on 11/01/2004 6:42:32 PM PST by Green
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To: Dog Gone
Let's hope so...LOL.

The fact that Rove admits the GOP is behind in early voting but ahead in absentee ballots lends some credibility to the claim. Of course, this may be just another example of Rove The Manipulative Genius leading others into erroneous conclusions...

10 posted on 11/01/2004 6:42:44 PM PST by NittanyLion
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To: NittanyLion

kerry supporters are the old- of course they voted first. The rest of us are working and I am sure Bushies will show up in force tomorrow.


11 posted on 11/01/2004 6:42:50 PM PST by lawgirl (Live What I Believe: http://pages.sbcglobal.net/bommer/Live%20What%20I%20Believe.html)
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To: NittanyLion

Wasn't part of the problem in 2000 that Florida was called for Bush before polls closed, causing Bush voters to stay home? It's dangerous to say this, especially if you are a Republican; GOP voters in Florida might be less motivated if they think Bush is certain to win. It's important to keep saying it's a dead heat in order to drive voter turnout.


12 posted on 11/01/2004 6:42:50 PM PST by bh1977
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To: NittanyLion
Given the massive labor union / NAACP get out the early vote efforts in Florida, if we are even close to being even at this point, that is a great sign.

Problem is, how many of these "early voters" are going to assume new identities tomorrow and become regular voters as well?

13 posted on 11/01/2004 6:43:16 PM PST by comebacknewt
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To: BCrago66

It wouldn't let me post unless I had a valid URL in there, and the site would've auto-excerpted if I supplied FoxNews. FreeRepublic appeared to be the best option given those facts.


14 posted on 11/01/2004 6:43:58 PM PST by NittanyLion
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To: NittanyLion

15 posted on 11/01/2004 6:43:59 PM PST by DaveMSmith (I'm not so sure it's credible to quote leading news organizations about --oh,nevermind.-GWB)
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To: comebacknewt
Problem is, how many of these "early voters" are going to assume new identities tomorrow and become regular voters as well?

Yes, that's certainly a concern. It remains to be seen how early voting changes the dynamic.

16 posted on 11/01/2004 6:45:15 PM PST by NittanyLion
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To: bh1977

No, Florida was called early for Gore, before the polls closed in the panhandle, causing thousands of Bush voters to go home in disgust.


17 posted on 11/01/2004 6:45:43 PM PST by Redleg Duke (Stir the pot...don't let anything settle to the bottom where the lawyers can feed off of it!)
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To: DaveMSmith

I noticed he shed the camo. Too bad...


18 posted on 11/01/2004 6:46:05 PM PST by NittanyLion
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To: bh1977

It was the Panhandle in Florida which is conservative/military. The area is on Central time and the polls were open for another hour when the TV networks made the bogus call. Bush lost at least 10,000 votes in the pnahandle and probably more as you go further west.

The RNC has been having automated machines call Repubs in the Panhandle reminding them no matter what - go vote. Ignore anything you hear and go vote.


19 posted on 11/01/2004 6:46:46 PM PST by FrankRepublican (UK Bookies - more accurate than Pollsters & they predict Bush Win)
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To: All

Hear McAuliff? 'Dick Cheney should change his medication'. Hannity called him on it and he replied - that's Fox - Fair and Balanced


20 posted on 11/01/2004 6:47:44 PM PST by DaveMSmith (I'm not so sure it's credible to quote leading news organizations about --oh,nevermind.-GWB)
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To: Green
I don't see how anyone can know who leads in any actual voting right now. I thought all the votes were counted at the same time - after the polls close on Nov 2.

Perhaps not. There's been a lot of discussion on this site with regard to counterclaims by Dems and Reps about who's leading in FL early voting. It seems odd that Rove would make a claim with this level of specificity if he didn't know. You'd expect a general claim that the GOP is ahead (unless, as I mentioned, Rove is an evil genius as some claim).

21 posted on 11/01/2004 6:48:29 PM PST by NittanyLion
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To: NittanyLion
I liked his hat!


22 posted on 11/01/2004 6:48:46 PM PST by DaveMSmith (I'm not so sure it's credible to quote leading news organizations about --oh,nevermind.-GWB)
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To: Holden Magroin

"I don't believe anything Rove says anymore"
why?


23 posted on 11/01/2004 6:49:27 PM PST by DM1
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To: NittanyLion
I early voted in Texas two weeks ago. I estimate that 80% of those in line with me that day were rabid hot dog eating Michael Moore groupies. Since my area consistently votes Republican by a 30% margin, I concluded that I was witnessing those Democrats who have been waiting since 2000 to cast their vote against Bush.

Heck yeah, they were motivated and out in force. The problem for them is that they're greatly outnumbered in the long run.

24 posted on 11/01/2004 6:49:26 PM PST by Dog Gone
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To: DaveMSmith

I've come to associate McAuliffe victory boasts with GOP landslides, so I was happy to hear him say that. My guess is Terry's still batting .000 after tomorrow.


25 posted on 11/01/2004 6:50:06 PM PST by NittanyLion
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To: MplsSteve

why are you nervous what are you hearing there?


26 posted on 11/01/2004 6:50:07 PM PST by DM1
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To: Murp

Bush will win Florida by 102,218.5 votes. You heard it here first.


27 posted on 11/01/2004 6:50:21 PM PST by dr_who_2
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To: DaveMSmith

Why are they talking about Lizzy Edwards on the running scroll thingy? What happened, did she get sold to the highest bidder. They will get their money's worth I'm sure.


28 posted on 11/01/2004 6:50:32 PM PST by babydubya1981 (John Kerry is the answer to a very stupid question)
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To: FrankRepublican

The networks made the call with only 10 minutes left to vote in the florida panhandle. There is no "farther west" in Florida. If you mean elsewhere in the country, you really have to be a dolt not to vote in North Dakota because you heard something, maybe, in Florida. The networks were dumb or evil, yes, but "our" voters have to be dumber than the butterfly ballot ladies for them to just pick up their marbles and go home!


29 posted on 11/01/2004 6:51:13 PM PST by BohDaThone
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To: NittanyLion
It is my understanding that no votes will be counted until the polling place closes.
30 posted on 11/01/2004 6:52:07 PM PST by dwilli
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To: Dog Gone
I estimate that 80% of those in line with me that day were rabid hot dog eating Michael Moore groupies. Since my area consistently votes Republican by a 30% margin, I concluded that I was witnessing those Democrats who have been waiting since 2000 to cast their vote against Bush.

That's interesting...makes a lot of sense given the level of hatred out there for Bush. If Rove's comments are accurate, that could bode well for the President tomorrow. It could also explain why we've seen these wildly contradictory claims over who's leading in FL (the Dems limited their comments to early voting results).

31 posted on 11/01/2004 6:52:56 PM PST by NittanyLion
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To: dwilli
It is my understanding that no votes will be counted until the polling place closes.

Yeah, but if 25% of votes are cast before election day, you've gotta believe the campaigns will find a way to model those results; that data's too valuable.

32 posted on 11/01/2004 6:55:02 PM PST by NittanyLion
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To: Green

Exit polling AND the GOP has analyzed the party of those who have voted, and made calculations based on that as well.


33 posted on 11/01/2004 6:55:12 PM PST by RightthinkinAmerican (Is the Republican attack machine an assault weapon?)
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To: NittanyLion

I believe they don't count the absentees unless it is close?


34 posted on 11/01/2004 6:55:46 PM PST by Bob J (Rightalk.com...coming soon!)
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To: NittanyLion

I'm sure they do exit polling but that would be tempered
to whomever is doing the exit polling.


35 posted on 11/01/2004 6:56:48 PM PST by dwilli
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To: Bob J
I believe they don't count the absentees unless it is close?

Really? To be honest I've never had reason to go back and see whether they were counted. Maybe you're right...

36 posted on 11/01/2004 6:56:57 PM PST by NittanyLion
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To: NittanyLion

Well there would be a lot of military absentee ballots there wouldn't there? We figure they would be mostly Bush.


37 posted on 11/01/2004 6:57:50 PM PST by Hattie
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To: dwilli

No.....I thought Danny Boy called FL for Gore 7 minutes into the 7 o'clock est hour with about 53 minutes to go in the panhaddle........


38 posted on 11/01/2004 6:58:08 PM PST by Paul8148
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To: DaveMSmith

I loved his work in a Christmas Story........Vote Dubya !


39 posted on 11/01/2004 6:58:31 PM PST by Squantos (Be polite. Be professional. But, have a plan to kill everyone you meet. )
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To: Dog Gone

The get out to vote early program in Florida has Deocratic Bushes coming and picking up people at black churches and taking them to the polls. This an other programs was designed to get momementium etc. but the democrates are real quite...fearful here as tomorrow comes. Bush is right that absentee ballots are a + for Republicans...Bush will win by 2 to 4 points ...which is alot if 6 million are cast...there are whole black churches of some size here in North Florida tht are voting for Bush because of Abortion and gay marriage...anything over 10% is welcome but its really the conservative democrates in Fl. who will cross over who live in N and Central area tht will give him a victory...


40 posted on 11/01/2004 6:58:45 PM PST by IndependantVoter
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To: dwilli
I'm sure they do exit polling but that would be tempered to whomever is doing the exit polling.

Possibly. Early voting is such a new creation no one seems to have a good grasp on its impact. I guess we'll know better after tomorrow.

41 posted on 11/01/2004 6:59:45 PM PST by NittanyLion
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To: Bob J

I've heard that before too. However, that doesn't seem right to me, if that is the process. It seems to me that all absentee ballots should be counted regardless of whether it is close or not.


42 posted on 11/01/2004 7:00:24 PM PST by Green
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To: section9

Hey, man...


43 posted on 11/01/2004 7:03:00 PM PST by txhurl (Omitting sarcasm tags gets me in lots of trouble)
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To: NittanyLion

Like Karl would say otherwise at this point. I believe it to be the case, but doubt we would hear otherwise.


44 posted on 11/01/2004 7:03:28 PM PST by FlipWilson
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To: IndependantVoter

I think Bush will do well in Florida. For some reason the Democrats have staked out Ohio as their "Florida" for 2004, but I don't think it's going to work. Ohio is more Republican than Florida is.


45 posted on 11/01/2004 7:03:34 PM PST by Dog Gone
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To: Holden Magroin

Wasn't Rove the guy who predicted a 330+ EV win in 2ooo?


46 posted on 11/01/2004 7:04:04 PM PST by L`enn
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To: NittanyLion

When "they" do the routine polls, they ask if the respondent has already voted or plans to vote early, or has or will vote absentee. If the answer is yes to any of these questions, they release a poll saying so-and-so is leading in the early voting. As unscientific as regular polling is, this is pure BS because there is no real way to gauge the sample that's being taken.

That being said, nearly 2M FL voters have already cast their ballots; given the Dems obsession with this method, they are likely to get the lion's share of the early votes and probably absentee as well. That being said, except for those who had to vote early for personal reasons (jobs, vacation, medical), it just reduces the net number of votes that normally would have been cast on election day. In FL's case, by about 25%. Thus, if the Dems get 75% of the early vote (just to use an easier number), one can expect that anywhere from 1-1.5M fewer Dems will go to the polls tomorrow.

Unfortunately, the real problem with this relatively stupid fad is that it really messes things up when combined with absentee voting, absent minded morons who will forget they already voted, and deliberate fraud. There's a decent chance we will lose FL tomorrow, but if the numbers on election day reflect a Kerry victory by anything greater than, say 2% or so, it is more likely than not that massive fraud is the cause and you will find the fraud in double-voting (once early, then again on election day, and probably a third time as absentee).


47 posted on 11/01/2004 7:04:09 PM PST by Ilya Mourometz
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To: FlipWilson
Like Karl would say otherwise at this point. I believe it to be the case, but doubt we would hear otherwise.

One certainly has to consider the source. That said, this is the most detailed explanation I've heard so far. Prior to Rove, I'd only heard folks state that the Dems are leading by 10%, or vice versa. If Rove made up some numbers, it seems like he built in more complexity than he needed.

48 posted on 11/01/2004 7:05:28 PM PST by NittanyLion
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To: NittanyLion

BS those votes are not counted yet.


49 posted on 11/01/2004 7:06:27 PM PST by verifythentrust
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To: NittanyLion

Really does make a lot of sense. Plus, conservatives tend to do things they way they always have, hence, they are conservatives. They will get up. go to there polling place and vote like they always have.


50 posted on 11/01/2004 7:06:54 PM PST by L`enn
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