Posted on 11/01/2004 9:24:45 PM PST by feedback doctor
Feedback Doctor 2004 Presidential Prediction
State Bush Kerry Nader Bush% Kerr% Na % Bu Ke
Alabama 1,065,707 668,559 5,694 61.25 38.43 0.33 9
Alaska 154,549 86,021 2,430 63.60 35.40 1.00 3
Arizona 813,334 700,166 NA 53.74 46.26 0.00 10
Arkansas 493,423 545,852 5,525 53.74 46.26 0.53 6
California 4,990,484 6,223,016 NA 44.50 55.50 0.00 55
Colorado 945,813 845.322 22,565 52.38 46.38 1.24 9
Connecticut 655,055 773,813 23,932 45.09 53.26 1.65 7
Delaware 156,937 171,324 7,139 46.79 51.08 2.13 3
Florida 3,272,250 3,074,254 75,596 50.95 47.87 1.18 27
Georgia 1,587,990 1,127,810 NA 58.47 41.53 0.00 15
Hawaii 188,478 190,422 NA 49.74 50.26 0.00 4
Idaho 325,758 177,342 NA 64.75 35.25 0.00 4
Illinois 2,083,134 2,753,466 NA 43.07 56.93 0.00 21
Indiana 1,342,988 913,912 NA 59.51 40.49 0.00 11
Iowa 687,703 641,995 13,102 51.21 47.81 0.98 7
Kansas 685,283 401,165 4,052 62.84 36.79 0.37 6
Kentucky 937,255 627,903 6,342 59.64 39.96 0.40 8
Louisiana 1,007,467 798,864 8,069 55.53 44.03 0.44 9
Maine 305,631 347,674 7,095 46.28 52.65 1.07 1 3
Maryland 848,057 1,112,055 5,588 43.14 56.57 0.28 10
Massachusetts 810,872 1,366,928 NA 37.23 62.77 0.00 12
Michigan 2,074,786 2,143,520 66,294 48.42 50.03 1.55 21
Minnesota 1,219,477 1,239,542 30,481 48.98 49.79 1.22 10
Mississippi 533,806 447,997 4,497 54.12 45.42 0.46 6
Missouri 1,262,898 1,148,102 NA 52.38 47.62 0.00 11
Montana 252,929 165,573 498 60.36 39.52 0.12 3
Nebraska 430,629 241,215 1,456 63.96 35.83 0.22 3
Nevada 327,044 302,247 909 51.90 47.96 0.14 5
New Hampshire 353,989 356,651 14,860 48.79 49.16 2.05 4
New Jersey 1,402,667 1,678,205 67,128 44.56 53.31 2.13 15
New Mexico 314,278 297,353 3,612 50.73 48.00 0.58 5
New York 2,652,744 3,714,004 29,952 41.47 58.06 0.47 31
North Carolina 1,588,542 1,359,758 NA 53.88 46.12 0.00 15
North Dakota 187,483 119,381 2,436 60.62 38.60 0.79 3
Ohio 2,371,757 2,298,743 NA 50.78 48.22 0.00 20
Oklahoma 826,638 442,362 NA 64.14 34.86 0.00 7
Oregon 751,940 835,860 NA 47.36 52.64 0.00 7
Pennsylvania 2,463,834 2,543,866 NA 49.20 50.80 0.00 21
Rhode Island 183,841 233,168 3,791 43.69 55.41 0.90 4
South Carolina 843,086 611,438 6,176 57.72 41.86 0.42 8
South Dakota 190,845 132,446 1,609 58.74 40.77 0.50 3
Tennessee 1,149,853 906,438 11,009 57.67 41.82 0.51 11
Texas 4,040,369 2,583,131 NA 61.00 39.00 0.00 34
Utah 571,672 218,083 6,745 71.77 27.38 0.85 3
Vermont 128,346 157,971 10,083 43.30 53.30 3.40 3
Virginia 1,545,382 1,325,818 NA 53.82 46.18 0.00 13
Washington 1,203,748 1,292,282 46,870 47.34 50.82 1.84 11
Wash. DC 31,407 155,514 6,479 16.24 80.41 3.35 3
West Virginia 359,704 289,967 2,929 55.12 44.43 0.45 5
Wisconsin 1,227,138 1,260,207 44,355 50.62 47.70 1.68 10
Wyoming 144,727 71,110 2,963 66.15 32.50 1.35 3
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Total 54,265,156 52,067,426 552,261 50.77 48.71 0.52 293 245
Bush wins popular vote by 2 points, wins Electoral College 292 to 246.
Do not quote this poll! It is MY prediction only.
For the 2000 election I had Bush in a landslide. I used a similar method with a program in basic for the 1984 Election (on a TI99 Computer) and got all the states correct, and was not too far off the popular vote.
okay, I'll take it...
I bet Massachusetts goes more for Bush than 32%, tho ...
What happened in the 2000 election?
from your computer to God's ears!!!
what kind of sauce did you use?, nothing from Heinz I hope!
You gave Wisconsin to Kerry, but gave the EVs to Bush or am I not reading your system correctly?
Man, you've got a LOT of time on your hands!!! Hope you are right!
Right, I think you accidentally gave WI's EVs to Bush. I'll take it either way, though.
Michigan has 17 EV and I wouldn't be surprised to see Bush win. If he doesn't, this much is true, Kerry had to call in a lot of help in the last few days to keep it.
Would you like to post your model so it can get some (informal but FR) peer-review?
Final EV Count Bush 297 - Kerry 241.
Feedback Doctor 2004 Presidential Prediction
State Bush Kerry Nader Bush% Kerr% Na % Bu Ke
Alabama 1,065,707 668,559 5,694 61.25 38.43 0.33 9
Alaska 154,549 86,021 2,430 63.60 35.40 1.00 3
Arizona 813,334 700,166 NA 53.74 46.26 0.00 10
Arkansas 548,852 493,423 5,525 52.24 47.23 0.53 6
California 4,990,484 6,223,016 NA 44.50 55.50 0.00 55
Colorado 945,813 845.322 22,565 52.38 46.38 1.24 9
Connecticut 655,055 773,813 23,932 45.09 53.26 1.65 7
Delaware 156,937 171,324 7,139 46.79 51.08 2.13 3
Florida 3,272,250 3,074,254 75,596 50.95 47.87 1.18 27
Georgia 1,587,990 1,127,810 NA 58.47 41.53 0.00 15
Hawaii 188,478 190,422 NA 49.74 50.26 0.00 4
Idaho 325,758 177,342 NA 64.75 35.25 0.00 4
Illinois 2,083,134 2,753,466 NA 43.07 56.93 0.00 21
Indiana 1,342,988 913,912 NA 59.51 40.49 0.00 11
Iowa 687,703 641,995 13,102 51.21 47.81 0.98 7
Kansas 685,283 401,165 4,052 62.84 36.79 0.37 6
Kentucky 937,255 627,903 6,342 59.64 39.96 0.40 8
Louisiana 1,007,467 798,864 8,069 55.53 44.03 0.44 9
Maine 305,631 347,674 7,095 46.28 52.65 1.07 1 3
Maryland 848,057 1,112,055 5,588 43.14 56.57 0.28 10
Massachusetts 810,872 1,366,928 NA 37.23 62.77 0.00 12
Michigan 2,074,786 2,143,520 66,294 48.42 50.03 1.55 17
Minnesota 1,219,477 1,239,542 30,481 48.98 49.79 1.22 10
Mississippi 533,806 447,997 4,497 54.12 45.42 0.46 6
Missouri 1,262,898 1,148,102 NA 52.38 47.62 0.00 11
Montana 252,929 165,573 498 60.36 39.52 0.12 3
Nebraska 430,629 241,215 1,456 63.96 35.83 0.22 5
Nevada 327,044 302,247 909 51.90 47.96 0.14 5
New Hampshire 353,989 356,651 14,860 48.79 49.16 2.05 4
New Jersey 1,402,667 1,678,205 67,128 44.56 53.31 2.13 15
New Mexico 314,278 297,353 3,612 50.73 48.00 0.58 5
New York 2,652,744 3,714,004 29,952 41.47 58.06 0.47 31
North Carolina 1,588,542 1,359,758 NA 53.88 46.12 0.00 15
North Dakota 187,483 119,381 2,436 60.62 38.60 0.79 3
Ohio 2,371,757 2,298,743 NA 50.78 48.22 0.00 20
Oklahoma 826,638 442,362 NA 64.14 34.86 0.00 7
Oregon 751,940 835,860 NA 47.36 52.64 0.00 7
Pennsylvania 2,463,834 2,543,866 NA 49.20 50.80 0.00 21
Rhode Island 183,841 233,168 3,791 43.69 55.41 0.90 4
South Carolina 843,086 611,438 6,176 57.72 41.86 0.42 8
South Dakota 190,845 132,446 1,609 58.74 40.77 0.50 3
Tennessee 1,149,853 906,438 11,009 57.67 41.82 0.51 11
Texas 4,040,369 2,583,131 NA 61.00 39.00 0.00 34
Utah 571,672 218,083 6,745 71.77 27.38 0.85 5
Vermont 128,346 157,971 10,083 43.30 53.30 3.40 3
Virginia 1,545,382 1,325,818 NA 53.82 46.18 0.00 13
Washington 1,203,748 1,292,282 46,870 47.34 50.82 1.84 11
Wash. DC 31,407 155,514 6,479 16.24 80.41 3.35 3
West Virginia 359,704 289,967 2,929 55.12 44.43 0.45 5
Wisconsin 1,337,138 1,260,207 44,355 50.62 47.70 1.68 10
Wyoming 144,727 71,110 2,963 66.15 32.50 1.35 3
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Total 54,265,156 52,067,426 552,261 50.77 48.71 0.52 297 241
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