Posted on 11/02/2004 1:44:06 PM PST by medscribe
Bad news that became good news: Drudge posted a "Kerry's up in early exit poll data," and then we discover the "sample" for those numbers was 59-41% female/male. Which means that Bush is up in early exit polling when you factor in the huge male gender gap. But what it really means is that these are nonsense numbers.
What's not nonsense: Jeb's organization is running very smoothly and will continue to do so until the Panhandle precincts shut down. It is neck and neck in Ohio and Wisconsin, but Bush seems comfortably ahead in Iowa. I just called my nephew to assure myself that my brother and sister-in-law have voted in good old Warren, Ohio, and he's now off to GOTV his aunts and uncles. You do the same. A phone call now is a lot easier than five weeks of provisionals in the Buckeye State. Belive me --December in Ohio would not be as much fun as it was in Florida, 2000. MSM should know that the hotels aren't on the water, and the Browns are sold out.
Second-hand from the Bush-Cheney bigs: Closer than they'd have liked, but the president will win. Today's undecideds breaking for the president.
Thank you for your report from the real world! I can't stand these armchair pessimists who have their noses buried in "Tradesports" and think that the flighty goofs who play that kind of game are an indication of the real world.
Schools out, maybe all the teachers and Moms? who knows....
All that matters is FL and OH, and we have indications that Bush has met/exceeded GOTV targets in both states. I notice Drudge has a Kerry 1% lead in each state - in other words too close to call.
Things don't look happy, gang.
Speak for yourself.
Everyone else should believe what they want to believe, but consider this: The exit polls were consistently 3 to 5 points down on Bush this time in 2000. If that holds true today, then Bush will win FL, OH and MI (yes, MI!), tie WI and maybe even come back to win PA. I have every reason to believe these early exit polls are skewed towards Kerry, and even then they're only barely registering Kerry "leads." We're in much, much better shape than we were this time in 2000.
C'mon people ... markets ALWAYS fluctuate, sometimes wildly, on the basis of rumors and other unsubstantiated stories.
Everyone just calm down ...
The idea is to turn out the base. We can't do that is everyone thinks we are ahead.
It is a game.
Well, I guess you could include me in that armchair bunch.
Sorry 'bout that..
"The dems are afraid their turnout will suffer from the data and are distorting them."
Perhaps the slugs are factoring in their fraudulent votes?
Unfortunately, I don't think that this is a good explanation. I loathe Soros, but he's not stupid. Why would he waste his money to goose this market? It's not going to influence GOTV efforts--MSM isn't going to report it. Mary M and the "insiders" at NRO are talking up the Senate races. I fear Bush is toast.
Ahhhhh, I was quoting someone else, who has since been yanked from here. An obvious DUmmie troll.
The whole deal of exit polling is an exercise in supersized, Americanized impatience. Those, plus the pre-election polls, can be crazy makers.
Anyone know how accurate exit polls are v. actual ballot results?
What I just posted was positive...and a complete disconnect from other news were are getting. What I'm theorizing (and could be completely wrong) is that the exit polls are being rigged and/or not picking up heavy rural GOP voters. It's like looking at two realities. They can't be both right. Would the Cheney daughter be so confident? Why is Kerry looking like he lost? What is real?
IF we are winning heavier % of men, catholics, hispanic voters and GOP voters turning out heavier this time, then how can the exit polls be so wrong?? But they were so wrong in 2000, so it's really possible they're out of whack this time. Either that or we're being fed positive bogus data to keep spirits up, and I doubt that too.
I don't really know anything except to watch and pray at this point.
Drudge is a traitor and a stooge for MoveOn.org!
I saw Liz Cheney and she was very confidant, as Hewitt notes.
Tad Devine is putting on the good poker face but whereas Liz claimed B-C were going to win comfortably, Tad was saying "razor thin".
Here's something else, very positive, from NRO just now:
MOOD [Shannen Coffin]
Just got off the phone with a source connected to the White House. Political operations there is very confident and completely dismissive of the early day numbers, citing the skewing of the sample that has been discussed here. Confident that Bush will win OH and FL, that he will roll in WVa (ten points?) and that Mel Martinez will carry Florida. Not someone who is given to bluster.
Posted at 05:29 PM
Oh for G-d sake, take a Valium.
I understand the anxiety completely, and have been having to fight it down myself. But allow me to point out that market trend analysis (such as acknowledging the propensity of markets to move wildly in the short-term based on wrong information before recovering in the long-term isn't an area "owned" by political wonks by any means.
"I just called my nephew to assure myself that my brother and sister-in-law have voted in good old Warren, Ohio"
I've been to their house several times. That nephew was in my high school class.
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