Posted on 11/02/2004 1:44:06 PM PST by medscribe
Bad news that became good news: Drudge posted a "Kerry's up in early exit poll data," and then we discover the "sample" for those numbers was 59-41% female/male. Which means that Bush is up in early exit polling when you factor in the huge male gender gap. But what it really means is that these are nonsense numbers.
What's not nonsense: Jeb's organization is running very smoothly and will continue to do so until the Panhandle precincts shut down. It is neck and neck in Ohio and Wisconsin, but Bush seems comfortably ahead in Iowa. I just called my nephew to assure myself that my brother and sister-in-law have voted in good old Warren, Ohio, and he's now off to GOTV his aunts and uncles. You do the same. A phone call now is a lot easier than five weeks of provisionals in the Buckeye State. Belive me --December in Ohio would not be as much fun as it was in Florida, 2000. MSM should know that the hotels aren't on the water, and the Browns are sold out.
Second-hand from the Bush-Cheney bigs: Closer than they'd have liked, but the president will win. Today's undecideds breaking for the president.
Bob Bennett, Republican Chairman of Ohio, said Bush is going to win outside the margin of error in OH, on MSNBC about 15 minutes ago.
The bogus exit poll is turning out to be the October Surprise. There is some schmo on CSPAN right now who works for the exit poll company lecturing on how accurate and worthy exit polls are. The whole thing stinks and looks coordinated.
I've got my scotch ready to pour and my victory cigar ready to fire up. Just let me know when I can spark that flame.
Maybe there are more women voters than men. Very likely here in Fla. with its aged population.
Here's some more kind of good news from NRO just now:
THIS DRAMA [KJL]
This e-mail from a GOP insider is worth reading and passing on:
There are media reports that we are behind in early exit polls. Here’s my sense of things. The early exit poll numbers are hard to make sense of right now, until we dissect and analyze them, which is being done even now. It’s of course still early, and it depends on where in the state the numbers are coming from. Much more importantly, our data also suggests what Drudge is reporting: the early samples are heavily weighted toward women (58 percent), which would of course give an artificial advantage to Senator Kerry. That imbalance will not hold up. Indeed, among men we are winning 53-45. To put it another way: if we’d one down in states with a sample that is heavily female, we’re in good shape with the overall population. To put it a third way: it looks like the first exit polls are a reflection of the composition of the electorate, not how the president is performing. Once those return to norm, the President should gain several points (2-3 pts) and Senator Kerry should lose several points (2-3 pts), giving the President the lead in a number of states.
Also of note: right now we are ahead among Catholic in Wisconsin by ten points (we lost Catholics in Wisconsin in 2000). The same is true of Pennsylvania. And in the early exits nationally, we are getting 40 percent of the Hispanic vote (in 2000, we received 35 percent).
One other thing: the early exit polls in 2000 looked a good deal bleaker than what we are seeing today. For example, early exit polls in 2000 showed us down by four in Arizona; we won by six. Early exit polls in 2000 showed us even in Colorado; we won by nine. And early exit polls in 2000 showed us down by three in Florida; we ended up slightly more than even.
I’m not being Pollyannaish here; the race will be a close one. But I would simply caution against putting too much weigh on such early polls. This drama has a ways to go before it fully unfolds.
Posted at 04:38 PM
I beg to differ.
You are.
TROLL.
ZOT Octave3!!!
troll alert?
You can triple your money on Tradesports right now... Bush contracts at 35.0... I got mine, you can too!
Must suck to be you today, huh?
Buh-bye!
Oh yeah, trust Slate fer sure.
Who is the IDIOT? Looks like you are.
We shall see.
We might still get a couple of pleasant surprises tonight.
The good news, in my opinion, is that most people have already voted early this AM (before getting false exit polls). Then there are some of the ones after work who'll vote and I doubt they may be up-to-date like we are currently. All in all I'm thinking a little to no effect of this ploy.
My fellow freepers, let this not make us complacent, but let it spur us on to greatness!
The men are at work and have yet to hit the polls yet. White men will go to Bush 70-30 or better.
The MSM had a NOVEMBER SURPRISE in addition to the expected October surprises!
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