Posted on 11/02/2004 1:44:06 PM PST by medscribe
Yes I understand. How did you FReepers survive the afternoon of Nov 2000 election? It must have been dismal. What a roller-coaster ride it's been so far today!!
Here's some better news from Kerry Spot (unless someone's blowing smoke).
WORD FROM OBI-WAN [11/02 05:54 PM]
Word from Obi-Wan Kenobi, longtime GOP operative:
What you're hearing about the unreliability of exit polls is accurate. They are focused on urban areas. The exit polls need to be conducted in person, and obviously the media, even with their combined resources, have to pick and choose which polling places to conduct those exit polls. They under-poll rural and suburban areas.
They also do not count early and absentee votes, which traditionally benefit Republicans.
In the 1990s, the CNN exit polls were considered so skewed and so bad that GOP campaign strategists regulary added at least two or three points to the Republican candidate's total.
He also noticed that the earlier garbage polls, with their 59-41 women/men breakdown, were equalized to the more likely proportional turnout, Bush would win several key states like Ohio in a rout.
Before anyone loses their optimism, wait until someone's reputation is on the line in making these calls on the swing states.
I would observe that blowing the call on Florida in 2000 didn't seem to hurt the networks' reputation too much.
I have also heard, on good authority, that one of the highest-ranking campaign folks on the Bush-Cheney campaign has said, "We will win Ohio. We will win Florida. And Pennsylvania is tied." Unfortunately, this person didn't provide numbers.
UPDATE: What my person said is similar to what Shannen Coffin says a White House source said: "Political operations there is very confident and completely dismissive of the early day numbers, citing the skewing of the sample that has been discussed here. Confident that Bush will win OH and FL, that he will roll in WVa (ten points?) and that Mel Martinez will carry Florida. Not someone who is given to bluster."
I wonder if it's the same person.
We were demoralized and outraged by the early call for Florida and *knew* the polls were not closed in the panhandle.
It really hit the fan when Gore retracted his concession and FR went into meltdown. We regrouped on the Yahoo chat backup and thus began the fight against "Sore Loserman", the "Get out of Cheney's house" cries and more.
I don't expect we'll see that tonight. I believe it'll go one way or the other and, for sanity and necessary clarity, I pray it does.
re the Florida "change in polling place"---I was surfing channels and noticed that they had some type of election program on MTV (Rock the Vote crap) and they had a guy named "Sway" monitoring the polls in Florida and he mentioned that this was happening BUT insinuated that it was the evil republicans doing this...caught the tail end of a segment from a Jackson, MS college campus...mostly blacks in line and some were being challenged by a white "evil republican" man and the girl they interviewed was almost in tears because she couldn't vote--she thought just because she went to school there, that she could vote there--even though she was not registered there to vote...duh...MTV crew was very sympathic towards the dumb dem...they never said Kerry's name during the time I was watching but it was IMPLIED BIG TIME--you have GOT to get out there and VOTE FOR A CHANGE! Also, the host of the show was asking questions like "how does it feel to know that your age group could actually determine the outcome of this election?"...hopefully all the little darlings who can be swayed by this crap are going to stay in front of the tv and watch it and not get out and vote...lol
"Vote for a change" *is* a Kerry slogan. This is perverse and a possible violation by so-called "non-partisan" voter registration and GOTV efforts.
Yep. And remember that Tradesports.com is WORLDWIDE.What does the rest of this world think of this election? Here's a chance to make somequick $ !!
Excellent theory of yours, with which I agree completely.
Hubby and I were talking about that last night.
I wish I was a "stock police" tomorrow morning.
I'd ZOT! them all.
"Don't know if this has already been mentioned, but I hear that KOS and Wonkette were behind this exit poll rumor. True?"
From what I can gather the bogus exit poll started as a DNC poll, overly sampling women. It was leaked to Wonkette, then the hysterical Drudge and NRO posted them as gospel. I can't believe these boobs are so easily suckered. Makes me think that eddiebear and orangelobster ought to start their own non-hysterical website. These guys are worse than the MSM.
NO WAY Bush is going to lose MY state (SC), he has as much support here as he does in Texas, which is saying something.
If I wanted to put a grand on Bush what could I make? I'm series. :-) I looked once but didn't see the straight B v K.
Sorry, but I've got absolutely no idea how the whole betting thing works over there..just that W dropped from 59 to under 30 in the span of a few hours - which even to a non-betting person like me AIN'T GOOD.
Soros is a market manipulator - for what he's put in to defeating Bush it's prolly chump change to manipulate this market. Thanks for the quick response - I'll check it out myself. :-)
I don't know how much more stress my poor hardened arteries can take.
Can anyone describe "selling short"?
The name is "bigot". Rather and Jennings and CNN are nothing more than bigoted shills. They're liberal bigots who feel the Lower World of the Common People need to hear their Royal Reporting About What Went On in Their World Today.
Brokaw I'm not sure about...he's been the most objective of the Old Media 3.
They're lying, propagandizing bigots.
Hey CBG,
I'm raising my glass to you. Are you there?
LakeLady
I'm here and ready for my second scotch as soon as they announce Ohio for Bush :)
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