Bad news that became good news: (From Hugh Hewitt-something to calm the nerves here)

HughHewitt.com ^ | 11/2/2004 | Hugh Hewitt

[medscribe]

Bad news that became good news: Drudge posted a "Kerry's up in early exit poll data," and then we discover the "sample" for those numbers was 59-41% female/male. Which means that Bush is up in early exit polling when you factor in the huge male gender gap. But what it really means is that these are nonsense numbers.

What's not nonsense: Jeb's organization is running very smoothly and will continue to do so until the Panhandle precincts shut down. It is neck and neck in Ohio and Wisconsin, but Bush seems comfortably ahead in Iowa. I just called my nephew to assure myself that my brother and sister-in-law have voted in good old Warren, Ohio, and he's now off to GOTV his aunts and uncles. You do the same. A phone call now is a lot easier than five weeks of provisionals in the Buckeye State. Belive me --December in Ohio would not be as much fun as it was in Florida, 2000. MSM should know that the hotels aren't on the water, and the Browns are sold out.

Second-hand from the Bush-Cheney bigs: Closer than they'd have liked, but the president will win. Today's undecideds breaking for the president.

[cyncooper]

Yoohoo

Might I suggest you read all of Drudge's headline and not just focus on the numbers reporting from today but his reminder that exit polling from elections past has often been WAY off.

[tarzantheapeman]

Hasn't Sorass (intentional sp) already spent millions to beat Bush? What's a few million more to this man. He'd be better off spending his money were it could do some good. This man is evil.

[Sterm26]

Bush is down to 25.5 on Tradesports. Helluva bargain, I wish I'd waited to buy (I have him at 51). I'm confident I'll be making some dugh by nights end.....it's not good for my stomach, though!!

[eddiebear]

Don't know if this has already been mentioned, but I hear that KOS and Wonkette were behind this exit poll rumor. True?

[Outraged At FLA]

Sorass has stated more than once he would spend every dime of his to beat Bush.

[iconoclast]

Tradesports is the thing that has me the most freaked out here.

Tradesports is effected almost entirely by the bets that are being/have been placed.

[Petronski]

NRO: RE: EXIT POLLS


[Mark Steyn]


Have a look at the Corner archives for Election Day 2002:

"Big turnout in New Hampshire—not a good sign... Early down arrows for Dole... Talent losing in MO... Townsend (arrgh!) looking good in MD..."

And that's just Rich.

The key word in the phrase "exit poll" is "poll": that's all it is.

I'm more concerned about those hard numbers from Dixville Notch: Bush 19 votes, Kerry 7. In 2000, it was Bush 21, Gore 5. If the Democrats maintain that 40% vote increase nationally, Texas is in play.

[paulsy]

"FWIW, the money on tradesports seems to think Kerry will win."

? Bush 51 Kerry 49 here:http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_Markets.html

[Outraged At FLA]

Living in the middle of nowhere, I am not familiar with Exit Poll techniques, but basically isn't is just asking people when they leave the booth who they voted for?

How can this be reliable for anyone? Most people I know would not tell a stranger who they voted for.

Just my opinion.

[Looper]

I agree he's evil; he doesn't have too much time left to avoid hell. My point his goosing the markets does nothing to help Kerry; spending millions in ads as he did obviously helps Kerry.

This is the biggest case of MSM bias ever, I think. Could you imagine someone like one of the Waltons spending his or her fortune to slam Kerry? Ted Koppel would devote every Nightline to this subject.

[iconoclast]

that bit of hysterical glee from Rita Cosby

She's the personification of bimbo.

Note also that the cameramen have strict orders to keep the cameras above her navel.

[jstolzen]

Thanks, but I believe those are numbers from early AM today, not current.

[My2Cents]

I've noticed that some weeks the camera shots are above the neck.

[finnigan2]

" It is a game."

- I'm beginning to think you are right. I've been listening to Hannity and he's practically hysterical that the Florida Panhandle is a toss up and people there must get out and vote Bush. That's horse hockey, the Panhandle is Bush country and he knows it - he's trying to goose the vote.

[LS]

Senate races? Common sense tells you that Bush is not going to run BEHIND Martinez in FL or BEHIND Coors in COLO. This is pretty good evidence that the pres. polls are screwy. It's why we do something called COUNTING THE VOTES.

[tazannie]

posted this on another thread - what everyone is forgetting is the dem's PLAN. Have Kerry declare victory early, and then let the lawsuits begin.

[My2Cents]

Hannity is showing that he's not that bright.

[Cold Heat]

Most definately.

It is the panhandle where we had some no shows in 2000.

[Semper Paratus]

We're near the end of the interregnum between the first reports of votings and way too early dubious sourced exit polls. The campaigns both have good voting data now but will treat it as nuclear secrets. I don't trust anything the MSM will say between now and the rest of the night. I suspect Rather and all the other usual suspects will say "we can't say anything yet but look at the canary in out mouths". Don't fall for. What will be will be but wait for the polls to close and real numbers start coming. The early selected precinct results will be cross-tabed by the campaign against exit polls to come up with preliminary numbers.

The fur should start to really fly after 8:00 PM. Anything before is noise.

[newzjunkey]

the Subaru-driving Moveon folks

HAHAHA! When I was in college, if you saw a Subaru (unendingly with a manual transmission) it was owned by a dope-smoking, flaky, Beavis-and-Butthead worshiping female.