(AP) Team Zogby takes a break from preparing their final 2004 presidential election projections.
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Posted on 11/02/2004 2:20:45 PM PST by IndianPrincessOK
RealClearPolitics Electoral Count Tuesday, November 2: Bush 227 - Kerry 203 (270 Electoral Votes Needed to Win) RCP Electoral Map | Battleground State Polls, Averages | Send This Page to a Friend Updated Electoral Count Analysis
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------ Solid Bush (191) Leaning Bush (36) Toss Up (108) Leaning Kerry (54) Solid Kerry (149) AL (9) AR (6) FL (27) ME (4) CA (55) AK (3) CO (9) HI (4) MI (17) CT (7) AZ (10) MO (11) IA (7) NJ (15) DE (3) GA (15) NV (5) MN (10) OR (7) IL (21) ID (4) WV (5) NH (4) WA (11) MD (10) IN (11) NM (5) MA (12) KS (6) OH (20) NY (31) KY (8) PA (21) RI (4) LA (9) WI (10) VT (3) MS (6) DC (3) MT (3) NC (15) NE (5) ND (3) OK (7) SC (8) SD (3) TN (11) TX (34) UT (5) VA (13) WY (3) RealClearPolitics Electoral Map Bush Total = 227 Toss Up = 108 Kerry Total = 203 <><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><>< 11/2: In the last week there has been a small move toward Senator Kerry in the RCP National Average, however that has been offset by small movement towards President Bush in the critical battleground states.
Based on the final RCP State Averages, President Bush is projected to win 296 Electoral Votes to 242 for Senator Kerry. <><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><> (There have been no public polls released in Hawaii in over two weeks, and even though President Bush leads in the two polls taken in mid-October, we feel Senator Kerry retains an edge in Hawaii due to the overwhelmingly Democratic leanings of the state. We have allocated Hawaii's four Electoral Votes to Kerry in our projection, though we have moved the state to a tossup based on private polling suggesting the state is indeed close.) RCP 7:27 am
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10/25: President Bush continues to maintain a structural edge in the Electoral College that has worked to his advantage this entire campaign. However, the states that are producing that advantage have shifted since the summer.
In our initial electoral analysis we suggested that the election would boil down to Florida and Ohio, with Kerry having to win one of those two states and President Bush simply needing to carry them both to gain reelection. At the time we suggested that one of the President 's advantages was the possibility of offsetting a loss in Ohio or Florida by poaching some of the Gore states (IA, WI, MN NM, and OR), giving the President an alternate option of collecting an EC majority that Senator Kerry really never had.
As of today this alternate option, if necessary, for President Bush is starting to look more and more like a very real possibility. Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Mexico are fully in play: eight days before the election Bush holds leads in the RCP State Averages in all four of these states. This is seriously complicating Kerry's strategy in getting to 270 Electoral Votes. Conventional wisdom for months, including RCP's, had been that whoever won two of the "big three" Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida would almost certainly become President.
While it may still be likely that whoever carries two out of those three will win the election, it is not the cut and dry proposition it was earlier. President Bush can offset a loss in Ohio (and New Hampshire) by carrying Wisconsin and either Iowa, New Mexico or Minnesota. He can offset a loss in Florida (and New Hampshire), by winning three of those four states. Winning Wisconsin, Iowa, Maine's 1 Electoral Vote and holding New Hampshire would also allow President Bush to gain reelection while losing Florida.
Turning the conventional wisdom completely on its head President Bush could even lose all three of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida and still win, as long as he was able to flip Michigan. Granted, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where Kerry would win Pennsylvania and Ohio yet lose Michigan, but with a poll in Michigan showing the President ahead by five and Mason-Dixon calling it a one point race, coupled with a gay marriage initiative and Ralph Nader on the ballot (unlike PA and OH), it's not totally impossible. In this scenario Bush victories in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin could offset the loss of Florida's 27 Electoral Votes and Michigan would offset a loss in Ohio, leaving Kerry with a measly three electoral vote pick up.
While the Michigan option is a little far-fetched the other two are not. The problem for Senator Kerry is he has no backup plan to not winning in either Florida or Ohio. The problem for President Bush is that Kerry is still very much alive in both those states. All of Bush's backup Electoral scenarios will be irrelevant if he loses FL and OH and Kerry hangs on to PA and MI.
As the race sits today, the President holds roughly a three point lead in the national race. At the state level, using the RCP state averages to allocate the Electoral College, President Bush would win 306 - 232. However, the final movement in the national polls will have an exaggerated effect on that electoral tally. If Bush starts to pull away this week and can close strong building back toward his 5-7 point lead of September, that Electoral number could easily expand to 352 - 186. A small tightening towards Kerry in the final days from where we are today would indicate a dead heat race, where many of those electoral scenarios mentioned above could very well come into play. A strong break towards Kerry and most of these states would flip his direction leading to something like a 311 - 227 Kerry win.
Keep an eye on the RCP National Average. Eight days out it shows Bush ahead by roughly three points. Where that number is a week from today will be the best tell on how this race will turnout. October 8th Analysis | Summer Analysis
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Battleground State Polls - RCP Average Poll | Date Bush Kerry Nader Spread Florida | 10/25 - 11/1 48.2 47.6 1.0 Bush +0.6 Ohio | 10/25 - 11/1 48.8 46.7 Off Ballot Bush +2.1 Pennsylvania | 10/25 - 11/1 47.3 48.2 Off Ballot Kerry +0.9 Iowa | 10/25 - 11/1 47.4 47.1 1.0 Bush +0.3 Michigan | 10/25 - 11/1 45.2 48.7 1.5 Kerry +3.5 Minnesota | 10/24 - 11/1 45.3 48.5 5.0 Kerry +3.2 Wisconsin | 10/23 - 11/1 47.7 46.8 1.7 Bush +0.9 Missouri | 10/22 - 10/31 49.5 45.3 Off Ballot Bush +4.2 New Hampshire | 10/26 - 11/1 47.5 48.5 1.3 Kerry +1.0 Nevada | 10/27 - 11/1 51.0 44.7 - Bush +6.3 West Virginia | 10/25 - 10/29 51.5 43.0 - Bush +8.5 New Mexico | 10/26 - 11/1 47.8 46.4 1.3 Bush +1.4 Oregon | 10/25 - 10/29 45.0 49.8 - Kerry +4.8 Colorado | 10/25 - 11/1 50.0 44.8 1.0 Bush +5.2 Maine | 10/21- 10/30 41.5 51.0 1.0 Kerry +9.5 Arkansas | 10/27 - 11/1 51.0 44.5 - Bush +6.5 Hawaii | 10/13 - 10/20 44.7 43.8 - Bush +0.9
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Date RCP Electoral Count RCP 3-Way Poll November 2 Bush 227 - Kerry 203 Bush +1.7 November 1 Bush 227 - Kerry 207 Bush +1.5 October 31 Bush 227 - Kerry 207 Bush +1.9 October 30 Bush 232 - Kerry 207 Bush +2.1 October 29 Bush 232 - Kerry 207 Bush +2.6 October 28 Bush 232 - Kerry 207 Bush +2.3 October 27 Bush 234 - Kerry 228 Bush +2.0 October 26 Bush 234 - Kerry 228 Bush +2.3 October 25 Bush 234 - Kerry 228 Bush +2.8 October 24 Bush 234 - Kerry 211 Bush +2.8 October 23 Bush 234 - Kerry 211 Bush +2.7 October 22 Bush 234 - Kerry 211 Bush +2.4 October 21 Bush 227 - Kerry 189 Bush +2.8 October 20 Bush 227 - Kerry 206 Bush +3.0 October 19 Bush 227 - Kerry 210 Bush +3.5 October 18 Bush 227 - Kerry 220 Bush +3.4 October 17 Bush 254 - Kerry 220 Bush +4.0 October 16 Bush 264 - Kerry 227 Bush +3.4 October 15 Bush 264 - Kerry 227 Bush +2.3 October 14 Bush 264 - Kerry 227 Bush +1.7 October 13 Bush 264 - Kerry 227 Bush +1.5 October 12 Bush 264 - Kerry 227 Bush +2.0 October 11 Bush 264 - Kerry 220 Bush +0.8 October 10 Bush 264 - Kerry 220 Bush +2.2 October 9 Bush 264 - Kerry 220 Bush +1.7 October 8 Bush 264 - Kerry 220 Bush +2.0 October 7 Bush 264 - Kerry 220 Bush +1.8 October 6 Bush 264 - Kerry 220 Bush +1.8 October 5 Bush 284 - Kerry 200 Bush +1.6 October 4 Bush 291 - Kerry 200 Bush +1.8 October 3 Bush 291 - Kerry 200 Bush +2.7 October 2 Bush 291 - Kerry 200 Bush +4.4 October 1 Bush 291 - Kerry 200 Bush +5.4 September 30 Bush 291 - Kerry 200 Bush +6.0 September 29 Bush 291 - Kerry 221 Bush +5.9 September 28 Bush 291 - Kerry 221 Bush +5.9 September 27 Bush 291 - Kerry 221 Bush +6.4 September 26 Bush 291 - Kerry 221 Bush +5.5 September 25 Bush 291 - Kerry 200 Bush +5.6 September 24 Bush 291 - Kerry 200 Bush +5.6 September 23 Bush 284 - Kerry 200 Bush +5.2 September 22 Bush 284 - Kerry 200 Bush +5.4 September 21 Bush 284 - Kerry 200 Bush +5.7
10/17: PA - Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 254 - Kerry 220) 10/17: NH - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 254 - Kerry 241) 10/17: WI - Leaning Bush >> Toss Up (Bush 254 - Kerry 237) 10/13: MN - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 264 - Kerry 237) 10/12: OR - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 264 - Kerry 227) 10/6: ME/CD2 - Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 264 - Kerry 220) 10/6: PA - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 264 - Kerry 221) 10/6: OH - Leaning Bush >> Toss Up (Bush 264 - Kerry 200) 10/5: IA - Leaning Bush >> Toss Up (Bush 284 - Kerry 200) 9/30: PA - Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 291 - Kerry 200) 9/26: PA - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 291 - Kerry 221) 9/23: IA - Toss Up >> Leaning Bush (Bush 291 - Kerry 200)
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Great Commentary--Lets Hope this is it!!
Based on the final RCP State Averages, President Bush is projected to win 296 Electoral Votes to 242 for Senator Kerry.
Thats what I have as of 10/30
One of them is wrong.
Zogby's been smoking some of that wacky weed.
bttt
Yep, but M-D kicked Zoggy's backside in '02. Love to see him go down again!
Doesn't RCP use the Zogby poll in its averages?..That really skews it, eh?
I don't smoke the stuff - but sure would if I could get my hands on the stuff Zog is smoking.
Please dear God!!!
I agree!!!!!
Zogby gives Ohio and Fl. to Kerry and has Colorado and Nevada too close to call. He's probably wrong about those.
Zogby is counting provisional electoral votes. Someone challenged the 40 votes from "Massafornia" and "New Utopia" so we have to wait on the lawyers.
One of them is wrong.
I would take Real Clear Politics projection over any other...I believe this estimate of 296-242 BUSH is a conservative projection....hope so!
Very nice!
I think Zogby mistakingly awarded Kerry 27 EVs for carrying France.
I'll settle for 270 :-)
But I think you're right. I've been playing around with an interactive EV map and keep getting over 300
"I would take Real Clear Politics projection over any other...I believe this estimate of 296-242 BUSH is a conservative projection....hope so!"
John Fund also projected the exact same numbers and he strikes me as a sane kind of guy, actually I got the same numbers too at the MSNBC interactive electoral map but I'm just going on wishful thinking babes.
I don't get Zogby, it was reported he was saying Florida was trending towards Bush this morning, man, Zogby's polling sucked during the midterms 2002, he needs to prove himself I would think if he doesn't want to lose revenue, after all polling is his life, add to that the article that Kerry's own pollster called on Bush to win, maybe he cherishes his livelihood more than party affiliation.....
looks to me like Zogby got all flustered and just pulled out the 2000 numbers but that is why his 2002 polling sucked, he was using 2000 criteria in a post 9-11, Karl Rove GOTV inspired world.....
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