Posted on 11/04/2004 12:13:38 AM PST by Remember_Salamis
Dear FReepers,
I have put together analysis of 2006 Senate Races. Bottom Line: We look STRONG! There are many more retirements on the Democratic side (Feinstein, Byrd, Kohl, Bingaman, and maybe even Ted Kennedy) versus less on the GOP side (Frist plus Lugar, Lott, and Hatch are rumored to be mulling retirement). There are also a lot of other factors:
Republicans (15)
Solid Win - George Allen of Virginia Allens seat is very safe
Win - Conrad Burns of Montana Democrat Brian Schweitzer gave him a run for his money in 2000, but Schweitzer is the only prominent democrat in MT and he had to squeak out a congressional race.
Loss - Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island I will make a confident prediction: Chafee or Snowe will lose in 2006. The Club for Growth absolutely detests Chafee, Snowe, and Collins and hey will spend millions to defeat on of them IN THE PRIMARIES. IF Chafee makes it through the primary, I think hell lose. His fathers name recognition is starting to wear off, and its a blue state.
Solid Win - Mike DeWine of Ohio Safe Seat
Win - John Ensign of Nevada Swing state, but win. Ensign is a very popular tax-cutter in NV and should pull it out. Ensigns influence is growing rapidly and with Democrat Reid being the probable Minority leader, Nevadans will be very happy with major influence on both sides of the aisle. Besides, theres not much Democratic competition outside of Shelley Berkley.
Retirement, Loss- Bill Frist of Tennessee - Frist will retire, as he has pledged, and conservative democrat Harold Ford jr. will win the seat. Im not saying that Republican congressman Wamp cant win the seat, but he cant compete with Fords star power.
Solid Win - Orrin Hatch of Utah Even if Hatch retires, theres no way that Rep. Matheson (D) will beat the very popular Rep. Chris Cannon (R).
Solid Win- Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas Safe.
Solid Win - John Kyl of Arizona Very safe.
Win, but poss. Retirement - Trent Lott of Mississippi Lott wins if he stays, but State attorney General Moore could put this seat in the democrats camp if he retires.
Win, regardless of retirement - Richard Lugar of Indiana Outgoing Gov. Kernan (D), who was just voted out of office, might take a shot at Lugars seat. Other than that there arent many prominent democrats in the state not named Bayh.
Possible Loss - Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania The Dems hate this guy like we hate Daschle or Harkin. Theres a good chance that the Democrats run Bob Casey jr. (fmr. Gov Bob Casey Sr.s son), who is pro-life just like his father. Casey can piggyback off the Philadelphia political machine and go toe-to-toe with Santorum in Western PA on social issues.
Possible Loss - Olympia Snowe of Maine Either the Maine GOP will purge her and get their soul back, or the Dems will simply beat her in the open election. Win - Jim Talent of Missouri Missouri is moving out of the swing state category and more towards the red state category. I cant see Talent losing unless Rep. Russ Carnahan (D) (Mel and Jeans son) runs, but hes pretty green (elected to the House in 2000).
Win - Craig Thomas of Wyoming Not a chance of a loss
So, I have 11 Republican retentions and Four Republican losses.
Democrats (17) Solid Win - Daniel Akaka of Hawaii Unless Gov. Lingle decides to run for Senate instead of Governor in 2006, which is highly unlikely, this is as big a lock as any seat.
Win, unless he retires - Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico Heather Wilson, a former US Air Force Officer and current congresswoman, is going to run regardless. She has a good shot against Bingaman, but a great shot vs. an open seat.
Loss after Retirement or Death - Robert Byrd of West Virginia Unless the former Klansman dies, hell probably retire. Although Im hoping for the former, Shelley Capito (R), a moderate republican, should win in a state trending red. Shell have to duke it out with two young conservative democratic congressmen, but she should pull it out.
Loss - Maria Cantwell of Washington Although liberal whackjob and fellow Washington senator Patty Murray makes Cantwell look conservative, she is completely out of touch with those outside of Seattle. Republican George Nethercutts campaign against Murray caught on late, but the giant killer (he beat the unbeatable Tom Foley 10 years ago) has recently stated hes considering pulling a Thune and running against Cantwell. Nethercutt will win in 2006. Guaranteed.
Win - Thomas Carper of Delaware Safe
Loss - Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York Rudy Giuliani WILL BEAT HER! In fact, theres even a possibility that she resigns in 2006 to run for President in 2008 if she feels Rudy has a chance of winning. If thats the case, Rudy easily beats AG Spitzer.
Win, but I dont under stand why - Kent Conrad of North Dakota How many years behind South Dakota is North Dakota politically. Both are HEAVILY RED states that elect two democrats to panhandle for farm subsidies. Conrad doesnt have Dorgans political clout in D.C, so if popular and just re-elected, Governor Hoeven decides to run, he could win. But I think he likes sitting in the Governors chair.
Loss - John Corzine of New Jersey Backlash Alert! The backlash against McGAYvey will break the democratic political machine in Jersey. Corzine will be the first victim.
Loss - Mark Dayton of Minnesota The already-vulnerable Dayton is now a laughingstock after fleeing D.C. last month due to concern over terrorism. The Minneapolis Star-Tribune, no bastion of conservative thought, called Dayton "Cassandra," a "flake" and a "little chicken." Up-and-coming Conservative Rep. Mark Kennedy has been foaming at the mouth to take out Dayton since his friend Norm Coleman won a senate seat two years ago.
Loss after retirement - Dianne Feinstein of California The gun-grabbin grandma will probably retire in 2006, and the Republicans will have a competitive primary between Rep. Issa, grassroots superstar Tom McCLintock, and National Security Advisor Condi Rice may all throw their hats in. Tom has stated he is already preparing for a run for Lt. Governor in 2006 instead, but we shall see. If Condi Rice runs, which I expect, Condi the Moderate will ride the Governators moderate coattails during his Gubernatorial campaign. Another reason why I think that the GOP will pick up this seat if Feinstein retires is that the Democrats will be throwing everything they have to defeat Arnie, leaving the senate seat ripe for the picking. An Arnie-Condi-Tom ticket could sweep the GOP back into prominence in the Golden State.
Win, even if he retires - Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts Even if Teddy retires, it wont be much of an improvement with gay icon Rep. Barney Frank in his seat. Gov. Romney could win the open seat, but I believe hes eying the White House (which he will not win).
Loss after Retirement - Herb Kohl of Wisconsin Rumors are a-flyin that Kohl will retire and HUD Secretary and former Gov. Tommy Thompson will run for his seat and take it.
Win - Joe Lieberman of Connecticut It may sound strange, but keeping a moderate anchor in the Democratic Party in the senate is a good thing for this country.
Loss - Bill Nelson of Florida You heard it here first: Jeb Bush will run for the Senate in 2006 and win. His Governor's seat is up that year too, so Jeb will decide to follow in his grandpappy's footsteps and become a Senator. I've heard is a bit of a policy wonk so he sounds great for the Senate. What's more, having Jeb in the senate is like keeping a spare tire in the trunk. If the wheels fall off the GOP in the 2008 election, we have an EXCELLENT "spare candidate" waiting in the wings in the senate for 2012.
Win - Ben Nelson of Nebraska Nebraskans love having two moderates hugging the center from both sides.
Loss, even if he retires- Paul Sarbanes of Maryland The Man of Steele will win. LT. Gov. Michael Steele, the black conservative who wowed so many at the convention, will run in 2006 for the Senate AND WIN. He was going to run against Sen. Mikulski this year, but the Governor asked him to wait. Steele has strongly hinted he will run in 2006.
Win - Debbie Stabenow of Michigan A crappy candidate, but theres little competition right now.
Dems retain 8, lose 9.
Independent (1) Previous %
Win, but we wont pick up the seat - Jim Jeffords of Vermont probable democratic pick-up in a very liberal state.
So, what does this all add up to? Well, the GOP will pick up 5 Seats for the second election in a row, the democrats will lose four, and Jeffords will either (1) become a Democrat or (2) lose.
That will put the Senate at 60-40 GOP. I feel very confident in this number because the GOP seats I picked to lose arent extremely weak, but merely vulnerable. Many people will vehemently disagree with my pick that BOTH New England RINOs up for reelection in 2006 will lose, that the majority leader will retire and the Democrats will take the seat, and that Rick Santorum will out and out lose. Im also assuming that Sen. Bingaman (D-NM) will win, even though hes definitely beatable and may even retire. Im also assuming that Mitt Romney will not run for Teddy Kennedys seat if he were to die or retire. So technically, the GOP could get as many as 65 seats and should pick up at least 2 or 3 seats at a minimum. Its pretty simple: in 2006 the Democrats have far more vulnerable seats than the GOP. The Democrats also have far more potential retirements than we do.
But there could there be a downturn to such a bright future in 2006??? Yes. If the GOP expects to make massive gains in 2006, theres a chance that they will hold off on stronger, more controversial legislation until they get above 60 votes. They can then pass many of the historic pieces of legislation that we all want: Social Security privatization, Fundamental Tax Reform, Major Tort Reform (although I expect tort reform this spring), etc. So we could see the 109th Congress as nothing more than setting the stage for the 110th. The next two years will still be critical, however, as we may see MULTIPLE Supreme Court appointments.
- Remember Salamis
>>NetherCutt came on very strong towards the end of the campaign....
He did? The most current vote totals on the Washington Secretary of State website show Nethercutt's percentage at less than 43%. Nethercutt got about 70,000 less votes than Bush (who is generally dispised in Western Washington) and about 112,000 less than Rossi. Sad to say but Nethercutt never threatened Osama Patty. Nethercutt did little better than a back-bencher state senator would have done.
In 2006, if Rossi runs against Cantwell, he wins. If Nethercutt runs against Cantwell, she wins.
Good call. I was thinking of current statewide officeholders. Bonilla is an excellent choice.
That's a good point. I honestly think that it would take a Kennedy retirement to make the race competitive for Card, Romney or Cellucci. This is the only state in the country where the Kennedys are still thought of as royalty, but I'm not sure that it extends to his nephew Joe.
Even for an open seat, it will be an uphill struggle for any Republican. All of the Rats in the congressional delegation (Frank, Markey, Meehan, Delahunt) have been able to raise money hand over fist each election cycle while facing token opposition.
Current VA Gov. Mark Warner could give Senator Allen a run for his money in 06. A "solid win" would be nice, but I think it would be a close race.
Win - Ben Nelson of Nebraska Nebraskans love having two moderates hugging the center from both sides.
If Ron Brown, x-Ne Football asst coach-who's very active in social issues, ran he would beat Nelson by a mile. The people of Ne love our coaches. x-head coach Tom Osborne was just reelected by 80%. The first time he ran was the same & he never had any political experience. Huskers are mad and have a lot of anger than Ron Brown was let go with head coach Solich. I know he would beat Nelson big.
We are going to pick up a couple of additional Senate seats in 2006, but the interesting thing about that is *not* how much more power that will give us, but rather, what it will do to the Dems.
After their consecutive drubbings in 2002 and 2004, the Dems have two options: repeat more of the same...or change themselves.
But no matter what they do, they are still going to lose seats in the Senate and remain likewise out of power in the White House.
Thus, *either* choice that the Dems make (i.e. change or don't change) will be viewed as a disaster in the post 2006 election analysis (because they will have lost Senate seats).
Moreover, their Dark Horse option (which they won't choose) to preemptively accept overall Senate defeats in 2006 and concentrate all of their resources on winning the House back, will likewise hurt them no matter what.
This is because *failing* to retake the House under such a strategy would be viewed as a disaster, and worse (for them), re-taking the House while wild-eyed leftist Nancy Pelosi is their House leader would alienate most of America against their Party for 2008.
In short, their options for 2006 and 2008 are gloomy due to their all-or-nothing gambles in 2002 and 2004.
Note also that major political campaign contributors are going to recognize that the Dems have no realistic chance of regaining power in the next 5 years, too.
That's going to shift large amounts of money away from Dem campaigns into Republican coffers...further exacerbating the current trend.
In the meantime, we'll be packing the Supreme Court with conservatives, filling the federal benches with strict constructionists, and smashing whatever leftwing laws still survive on the federal books.
Because of their enormous strategic blunders from 2000 through this year, the Dems will be out of power *AT LEAST* through 2008, and probably much longer.
Being out of power for that long will even influence news media coverage, as reporters with more fair stories are going to get better access to the centers of power than will the old guard leftist hacks.
So in the courts, our laws on the books, in the bank accounts, and in news coverage, Republicans stand to gain much at the Dems' expense.
Would you please make it 62-38. We need to be sure that Jumpin Jim Jeffords clones don't knock us below 60. Filibuster proof would be SO great! Let the judges be confirmed! Let the oil flow! Let the trial lawyers stand in unemployment lines!
Amazing analysis.
Should be put in a time capsule and broken out in 2006.
Do you think that Rove will have an active hand in any of these elections, or do you think he's pretty much done now that Bush has a second term?
Loss - John Corzine of New Jersey Backlash Alert! The backlash against McGAYvey will break the democratic political machine in Jersey. Corzine will be the first victim.
Corzine has all but proclaimed by skywriting that he intends to run for Governor in 2005. As such, there are a good dozen Democrats who will move to take his seat, if Corzine wins the off year special election for NJ governor, he gets to pick his replacement for the vacant Senate seat. BUT, Corzine has made no moves to make himself a longterm "kingmaker" in NJ, he has too much money and didn't rise up through the NJ Democrat machinery. Can't be bought, doesn't owe favors.
The Republicans have a short bench here, it's too early to call anyone as a possible 2006 Senate primary candidate.
Loss - Mark Dayton of Minnesota The already-vulnerable Dayton is now a laughingstock after fleeing D.C. last month due to concern over terrorism. The Minneapolis Star-Tribune, no bastion of conservative thought, called Dayton "Cassandra," a "flake" and a "little chicken." Up-and-coming Conservative Rep. Mark Kennedy has been foaming at the mouth to take out Dayton since his friend Norm Coleman won a senate seat two years ago.
The Minnesota Republican party just got slapped down in their marginal districts this election. Check the state House and Sentate results. They need to regroup. Until the next election, it's not possible to say if Minnesota took a pause in the movement to Republican voting patterns, or that 2002 was the high point of Minnesota Republicans vote totals.
I think Stabenow IS one of the weakest candidates too, as do many others. But again, look at potential opponents.
And you're kidding on those two young pups in the House right? Miller is a freshman congresswoman and Rogers is a Sophomore. Will one of them go after Levin croaks or retires some time in the future? Sure. But right now those two are very green.
Nick Smith is Michigan's best hope against Stabenow. He's got a lot of name recognition and is the most prominent House Member from Mighigan from either side of the aisle. Maybe he retired to prepare for the '06 run against Stabenow.
I've read countless times that the House is locked up until 2012, after the next redistricting. The only way we lose the House between now and then is if there is some sort of watergate-type scandal thatdiscredits republicans nationwide.
I don't want to rain on your parade, but in many instances, you are all wet.
Ford?????
In 2000, Bush beat Gore in Tennessee by 51.1% to 47.3%.
In 2004, Bush beat Kerry by 57% to 42%.
And Ford is going to win statewide? Not on your life.
Go back to the drawing board.
1. It's a mid-term election, so there will be no Bush coattails for the GOP candidate to ride.
2. Tennessee has one of the higher black populations in the ocuntry at 17%. There's a good chance that they will have a high turnout to elect one of their own to the Senate.
Miller: She might only be starting her second term, but she twice won statewide election as Secretary of State before that (originally beating an incumbent who served in the position for a couple of decades). Id be willing to bet that she actually has higher name recognition than Stabenow. She also eliminates any gender advantage Stabenow might have.
Rogers: His name id is admittedly lower than either Miller or Stabenow, but he has an impressive resume. He served in the Army and FBI, was the Michigan Senate Majority Leader and is now part of the House leadership team. All that aside, he is a perfectly complete politician (think John Edwards charisma with Ws substance). Hed definitely start out behind, but hed catch up once people learned who he wasvery similar to the North Carolina race this year. Hed also probably get big time help from the Club for Growth.
Stabenow is not a good public speaker, and can probably get eaten up by a straight forward facts based speaker in a debate. Both Rogers and Miller can do that. If Stabenow plays the experience card, she'd get countered heavily.
Miller: She might only be starting her second term, but she twice won statewide election as Secretary of State before that (originally beating an incumbent who served in the position for a couple of decades). Id be willing to bet that she actually has higher name recognition than Stabenow. She also eliminates any gender advantage Stabenow might have.
Miller can win(I'm hoping she takes a shot at Granholm in 06). She had more votes than anyone in Michigan history in her 96 re-election(exceeded Engler's vote which was against Geoff Fieger). She's from Macomb County which is a key area, and she was given a lot of credit for lowering lines in the secretary of state's office. She's been a conservative as well as a congresswoman and shouldn't have base problems. Being from the Detroit area also helps.
Rogers: His name id is admittedly lower than either Miller or Stabenow, but he has an impressive resume. He served in the Army and FBI, was the Michigan Senate Majority Leader and is now part of the House leadership team. All that aside, he is a perfectly complete politician (think John Edwards charisma with Ws substance). Hed definitely start out behind, but hed catch up once people learned who he wasvery similar to the North Carolina race this year. Hed also probably get big time help from the Club for Growth.
I don't ever bet against Mike. Rogers won't run unless he thinks he has a good shot to win. If he jumps in, he'll probably win. He has a safe district(for him - marginal overall) and won his last two races with 62% and 68% of the vote. Bob Alexander, his opponent ran a good race last time too. Rogers got about 48% or so in Ingham County which is the 4th most democrat county in the state. He then ran big margins in Shiawasse(Swing), Clinton(GOP), his part of Oakland, and took 71% in Livingston County which is his home. He won first in 2000(pre-redistricted district that went for Gore) by about 88 votes over a very strong candidate in Dianne Byrum for Stabenow's old district. Livingston turned out big and he won. Rogers has part of Oakland in his district as well, so he's becoming more well known in the (Western) Detroit area. West and North MI are his weaker areas, and once he's known out there, he'll do well. Rogers is a good speaker and can fit in any environment.
Your not that good if you think Kay Bailey will run again. The seat is however safe for Republicans.
And before anyone asks, she will take on our RINO Governor in 2006.
I'm inclined to think that Ford is overrated, too. If he was worth his mustard he would challenge the stymied Ma Pelosi for House Minority Leadership.
He is slick and a media darling, but largely untested, much like Obama. Frankly, until either are tested (and best as I can see, neither has ever really been tested), I'll consider them formidable.
Giving them too much credit buys into the hype. For me, the jury is still out.
If I say win, that means the GOP is keeping it even if she retires.
Bumping!
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